Economist Podcasts: "Nicolás caged: what next for Venezuela?"

Date: January 5, 2026
Host: Jason Palmer
Guests: Shashank Joshi (Defense Editor), Hal Hodson (Americas Editor)

Main Theme

The episode dissects the dramatic U.S. special operations raid that resulted in the seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and examines the fallout for Venezuela, the region, and American foreign policy. The hosts explore the motivations behind the Trump administration’s actions, the complexities of regime change, the uncertain future of Venezuelan governance, and the message sent to other Western Hemisphere countries.

Key Discussion Points

1. The Daring Raid and its Execution

• Dramatic Capture: Over the weekend, American special forces executed a surprise nighttime raid, seizing President Nicolás Maduro, who was then extradited to the U.S. ([02:02]).
• Scale & Precision:
  • "America had used more than 150 aircraft launching from 20 different bases across the Western Hemisphere, all of them coming together right at the same time over Venezuela." — Shashank Joshi ([05:13])
  • Elite units like the 160th SOAR and Delta Force were involved, flying stealthily at just 100 feet above water and using terrain to evade detection ([05:13]-[06:42]).
  • The operation had echoes of the 1989 Panama invasion to capture Noriega but was smaller, swifter, and, militarily, more successful ([06:51]).
• Notable Moment: Trump described the raid as an “assault like people have not seen since World War II” ([04:51]).

2. America’s Motivations & Policy Implications

• Big Picture: The Trump administration signaled a broader push for dominance in the Western Hemisphere:
  • “Hemispheric dominance, that’s our game.” — Jason Palmer ([18:20])
  • Trump named Maduro's vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, as the U.S.’s “partner” in Venezuela, suggesting an intention to govern through the existing regime’s remnants ([03:29]) and dismissed the political opposition ([14:47]).
• Motives Explored:
  • Hal Hodson: “He wants to project power across America’s backyard, across the Western Hemisphere. This much is very clear now. He’s also obviously very interested in Venezuela’s largest oil deposits in the world.” ([11:43])
  • While narcotics interdiction provided official justification, oil and regional influence dominated Trump’s own rhetoric. “[Trump] talked very little, if at all, about drug running... It’s about power for him.” — Hal Hodson ([13:12])

3. Aftermath and Regional Shockwaves

• Uncertainty in Venezuela:
  • Despite Maduro’s capture, regime infrastructure remains: “All of those around Mr. Maduro, even if they sold him out, are still there.” — Shashank Joshi ([07:38])
• Opposition Sidelined:
  • Trump ignored the democratically elected leader, María Corina Machado (2024 election winner; Nobel Peace Prize nominee), instead propping up regime figure Delcy Rodríguez. “The opposition is squashed, first by the Maduro regime, then by Donald Trump.” — Hal Hodson ([15:31])
• Cautious Regime Collaboration:
  • Rodríguez’s rhetoric quickly shifted from defiance (“America was a barbaric aggressor” ([15:40])) to a willingness to negotiate under U.S. force ([15:50]-[16:12]).
• Regional Warning: Trump has publicly referenced Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, and even Greenland as potential future targets of American action ([04:01], [10:03]).

4. Challenges of ‘Running’ Venezuela

• Leveraging Power: The notion of “running” Venezuela is met with skepticism:
  • “We’ve got coercive leverage over the regime now, and if they don’t do what we say, policy-wise, then we’re going to smack them. If that counts as running the country, then sure.” — Hal Hodson ([13:51])
  • The regime is amorphous, with entrenched military interests unlikely to bow to immediate American wishes ([13:51]).
• Long-Term Viability: U.S. military advantage is clear, but domestic American appetite for occupation is low, especially with upcoming midterms ([17:36]).
  • “One difficulty for Trump is that...what he’s doing and saying he will do in Venezuela, he’s saying he’s willing to put boots on the ground...is incredibly unpopular in America.” — Hal Hodson ([17:36])
  • Rodríguez may simply play for time, waiting out Trump’s leverage ([17:36]-[18:20]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Raid’s Success:
  • "Operation Absolute Resolve. America's mission to snatch Nicolas Maduro was a textbook success in military terms.” — Shashank Joshi ([04:36])
  • “There was a lot of gunfire. You saw some of it today. He was trying to get to his safe place, which wasn't safe because we would have had the door blown up.” — Donald Trump ([06:42])
• On U.S. Dominance:
  • “Hemispheric dominance, that’s our game. This was telegraphed. ... But nobody who read that thought this was what it was going to be.” — Jason Palmer and Hal Hodson ([18:20]-[18:30])
• On Trump’s Approach to Venezuelan Democracy:
  • “The opposition is squashed, first by the Maduro regime, then by Donald Trump.” — Hal Hodson ([15:31])
• On Future Risks for Regional Leaders:
  • “If you’re a Latin American leader sitting in America’s back garden, you would be looking at these military capabilities... and I think you’d feel a little bit nervous.” — Shashank Joshi ([10:11])

Timestamps of Key Segments

• [02:00] – Initial summary of events: Maduro’s capture, U.S. involvement
• [04:36] – Shashank Joshi details "Operation Absolute Resolve"
• [07:38] – Comparison with past U.S. interventions (e.g., Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq)
• [10:03] – Trump’s explicit threats to Cuba and others
• [13:51] – Analysis of what it means for the U.S. to “run” Venezuela
• [14:47] – Ignoring the opposition and installing a regime figurehead
• [15:40] – Delcy Rodríguez’s shifting rhetoric
• [17:36] – Challenges in sustaining U.S. control and domestic political implications
• [18:20] – "Hemispheric dominance" policy outlined

Tone and Style

• Matter-of-fact, analytical, and clear-eyed; hosts avoid overt speculation but do not hide skepticism about U.S. intentions or prospects for long-term success.
• Trump’s characteristic bravado and unpredictability are referenced frequently, contrasted with more nuanced insights from the Economist’s editors.

Conclusion

The episode delivers an incisive breakdown of the extraordinary U.S. operation that removed Nicolás Maduro, critically examining the military prowess, political motivations, regional ramifications, and profound uncertainties ahead. The hosts and guests see this as an inflection point—not just for Venezuela, but for America’s approach to power in the hemisphere—with skeptical acknowledgement that the hardest tasks are still to come.

For more analysis and updates, the episode invites listeners to a special video roundtable with top editors on the future of Venezuela and American foreign policy.