Economist Podcasts – "No Middle Ground: Iran’s Dangerous Division"

Date: January 29, 2026
Hosts: Jason Palmer & Rosie Blore
Guest: Nick Pelham, Middle East Correspondent

Overview

This episode of The Intelligence from The Economist focuses on the rapidly worsening socio-political crisis in Iran. Following brutal regime crackdowns on widespread protests, the country is now perilously divided, caught between theocratically loyal factions and royalist opposition. The discussion delves into the nature of the violence, deepening polarization, and looming threats of civil war—with the additional uncertainty of possible external intervention.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Brutality of the Crackdown and Public Radicalization

• Background (02:03–03:08):
  Protests broke out across Iran earlier in January, prompting the regime, under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to respond with extreme force: power cuts, shootings, destruction of public spaces, and mass casualties—opposition sources estimate up to 30,000 killed, mostly youth.
  • Quote:
    • "Ayatollah Ali Khamenei...has had his security forces cut the electricity and fire their guns into the dark...Relatives sift through piles of body bags. They must pay what's called a bullet tax to recover the corpses of their loved ones..." (Jason Palmer, 02:03)
• Mourning and Suppression (03:08–03:21):
  Public life seems superficially calm, but the smell of "blood and ashes" lingers.
  • Quote:
    • “There's a real sense of mourning. People describe the smell of blood and ashes that still linger on the streets.” (Nick Pelham, 03:08)

2. The New Polarization: Regime vs. Royalists

• Societal Fragmentation (03:25–03:51):
  Iran's once diverse society is now intensely polarized—those aligned with the regime versus royalists seeking to restore the Shah.
  • “The country evermore feels divided into two camps: the regime and the royalists who want to restore the Shah.” (Nick Pelham, 03:37)
• Mirrored Hostilities (03:56–04:46):
  Each side accuses the other of treachery and escalates violence; both now see violent confrontation as the only path forward.
  • “Both see a kind of hierarchical structure...Both accuse each other of hiring mercenaries...There’s a sense that the only way out is through bloodshed.” (Nick Pelham, 03:56)

3. Leadership and Loss of Control

• Leaders at a Remove (04:56–05:45):
  Khamenei, fearing a U.S. strike, is secluded; Reza Pahlavi, the exiled royal, does not command the street. Those acting in their names now shape events.
  • “It looks as if Reza Pahlavi is a captive of the people running the royalist agenda rather than their commander.” (Nick Pelham, 05:41)

4. Protest Evolution: From Reform to Raw Fury

• Shift to Violent Uprising (05:56–07:04):
  Unlike previous protests, rage and violence dominate; reformist voices have faded, and the movement now seeks change through force.
  • “This round of protests has just been so fundamentally different...this is very much a royalist-led demand for change and increasingly a demand for change through force.” (Nick Pelham, 06:28)

5. Deepening Despair and Tribal Mobilization

• Impact of Regime Humiliation & Economic Crisis (07:21–09:01):
  The regime’s mistreatment of the dead heightens public anger. Economic hardship and ongoing internet blackouts exacerbate the situation. Tribal leaders are openly calling for vengeance and armed resistance, reminiscent of the early days of the Syrian civil war.
  • “The regime seems intent on humiliating the memory of the dead...actively humiliating and dishonoring the dead.” (Nick Pelham, 07:36)
  • “Part of that anger is being expressed in a revival of tribal demands for vengeance, particularly in the provinces…tribal elders wearing fatigues and brandishing rifles, calling for revenge.” (Nick Pelham, 08:03)

6. Can Iran Step Back from the Brink? (09:01–10:52)

• Potential for US Intervention:
  A major variable is the threat of an American military strike—Donald Trump’s administration has amassed a presence off Iran’s coast. Past regime changes have not always led to protracted civil war, but the current environment is uniquely volatile.
  • “Even with American military intervention, I think it's really hard to see how you at the moment avoid a prospect of a descent into greater bloodshed and the prospect of civil war.” (Nick Pelham, 10:36)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Quote & Attribution | |-----------|---------------------| | 02:03 | "Relatives sift through piles of body bags. They must pay what's called a bullet tax to recover the corpses of their loved ones, paying the regime for the materiel of murder." (Jason Palmer) | | 03:37 | "The country evermore feels divided into two camps, the regime and the royalists who want to restore the Shah." (Nick Pelham) | | 03:56 | "Both see the other as their inveterate adversary. Both accuse each other of hiring mercenaries...a sense that the only way out is through bloodshed." (Nick Pelham) | | 05:41 | “It looks as if Reza Pahlavi is a captive of the people running the royalist agenda rather than their commander.” (Nick Pelham) | | 06:28 | "This is very much a royalist-led demand for change and increasingly a demand for change through force." (Nick Pelham) | | 07:36 | "It's a sense of which is actively humiliating and dishonoring the dead. And I think that's just so exacerbated the anger that you're seeing..." (Nick Pelham) | | 08:03 | "You've had images circulate of tribal elders wearing fatigues and brandishing rifles, calling for revenge, calling on the tribe to rise up." (Nick Pelham) | | 10:36 | "Even with American military intervention, I think it's really hard to see how you at the moment avoid a prospect of a descent into greater bloodshed and the prospect of civil war." (Nick Pelham) |

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:03 – 03:21]: Description of protest violence and aftermath in Iran.
• [03:25 – 04:46]: Nick Pelham explains the deepening divide and the two emerging camps.
• [05:45 – 07:04]: Analysis of changing protest dynamics, shifting from peaceful to violent.
• [07:21 – 09:01]: Discussion of regime brutality, economic crisis, and the rise of tribal vengeance.
• [09:10 – 10:52]: Speculation on external (especially U.S.) involvement and prospects for civil war.

Tone & Language

The episode provides a stark, unvarnished account of current events, alternating between journalistic detachment and deeply personal testimony from sources inside Iran. The tone is urgent, sober, and at times, foreboding, reflecting the host’s and guest’s sense of a nation on the precipice.

Summary

This episode paints a grim portrait of Iran: a nation divided, traumatized, and drifting towards potentially catastrophic internal conflict. Protest and dissent are met with brutality and humiliation; hope for peaceful reform has largely evaporated. The two dominant factions—regime loyalists and royalist insurgents—now see violence as the only means of achieving their goals. While possible U.S. intervention looms in the background, neither domestic nor foreign solutions offer any prospect of an easy escape from the cycle of violence, vengeance, and despair.