Economist Podcasts — The Intelligence

Episode: Nukes of hazard: US-Russia arms treaty expires

Date: February 5, 2026
Host: Rosie Blore & Jason Palmer

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the expiration of the New START nuclear arms treaty between the United States and Russia, examining the shifting dynamics of global nuclear arms control. The discussion reveals the implications of the treaty’s end, the rise of China as a nuclear power, and what a new multipolar nuclear era could look like. The episode also explores the prevalence of online cults and wraps up with a listener mailbag on men’s hair loss anxieties.

Segment 1: The End of New START — A New Nuclear Arms Race

(Start: 02:33)

Key Points

• Historical Significance

  • In April 2010, Presidents Obama and Medvedev signed the New START Treaty in Prague, limiting deployed warheads/missiles and allowing site inspections.

    “This day demonstrates the determination of the United States and Russia ... to pursue responsible global leadership.” – Dmitry Medvedev, (02:58)

  • Treaty was a major symbol of post-Cold War nuclear accord and mutual restraint.

• Why Did the Treaty End?

  • By structure, only allowed for a single extension (done by Biden).
  • Russia floated informal extension, but US did not respond.
  • Treaty “dying anyway” due to the Ukraine war; verification ceased in 2023.

    “So it’s been on its last legs as Russia has used the threat of nuclear escalation to try to deter America and the West from going too far in helping Ukraine.” – Anton LaGuardia, (04:24)

  • US politics and China’s rise further undermined prospects.

• China’s Growing Nuclear Arsenal

  • In 2012: ~240 warheads, “minimal deterrence” (kept warheads and missiles separate).
  • Under Xi Jinping: Now at ~600 warheads, could surpass 1,000 by 2030.

    “It is going to become an arsenal of the same order of magnitude, although not necessarily exactly as large as those of Russia and America.” — Anton LaGuardia, (05:51)

  • Motivations: survivability vis-à-vis US strike, regional “nuclear shield” (esp. re: Taiwan), status.

• Does the Number of Nukes Matter?

  • For the public, “one nuclear weapon is one too many.”
  • Military planners distinguish:
    • “Minimal deterrence” (China’s doctrine until recently): just enough to assure retaliation.
    • “Damage limitation” (US/Russia): try to target each other’s nukes, fueling arms races.

    “Now, this may seem totally crazy to most human beings... but if you’re a military planner, this is how you think.” — Anton LaGuardia, (08:21)

• What Does the New Arms Race Look Like?

  • More complex than the Cold War due to multipolarity, but currently slower-paced.
  • US and Russia can “upload” warheads from reserve stockpiles; China continues rapid buildup.
  • Instability prompts other powers (e.g., India, then Pakistan) to potentially increase arsenals.

    “If the Indians go up, then the Pakistanis may well want to go up.” — Anton LaGuardia, (09:24)

  • Allies increasingly nervous about US nuclear guarantees (esp. under Trump), sparking debates in Europe and Asia about developing their own nukes.

    “It is perfectly possible that Russia or China, seeing a small neighbor develop nuclear weapons, will decide to strike first to stop them going that way.” — Anton LaGuardia, (10:24)

• Is There a Way Back — A New Treaty?

  • Three-way deals (US/Russia/China) highly unlikely:
    • China opposes talks; very complex negotiations.
    • Only likely after a crisis “terrible enough to frighten everyone.”

    “Unless... the Chinese decide they are now a big power and do big power things like arms control agreements. The second is... some crisis breaks out and everyone gets a terrible fright, like the Cuban Missile Crisis.” — Anton LaGuardia, (11:02)

Memorable Quotes

• “The long era of arms control and decades of efforts to reduce the world's nuclear stockpile is ending, and the new arms race beckons.”
  — Anton LaGuardia, (03:46)

Segment 2: Online Cults and Digital Manipulation

(Start: 13:39)

Key Points

• Cults Have Adapted to Technology

  • Story of a cult using the game “Forsaken” on Roblox to lure children into private Discord groups—escalating to dangerous tasks like self-harm.

    “[They] told the children that they had been chosen, but gaining access meant proving your loyalty ... in some cases, they were encouraged to carve the symbol into their own skin.” — Carla Subarana, (13:51)

• Surge in Number and Shape of Cults

  • International Cultic Studies Association now tracks ~4,000 cults worldwide (up from 2,000 in the 1980s).
  • French authorities logged 4,500+ reports in 2024—double 2015, majority with online presence.

• What Makes a Cult?

  • Four agreed features:
    1. Charismatic leader
    2. Transformational belief system
    3. System of control (rules eroding autonomy)
    4. System of pressure (social costs of leaving)

    “What really surprised me ... is that every single one of those characteristics can now be reproduced online.” — Carla Subarana, (15:50)

• Recruitment and Expansion

  • Online cults often disguise themselves as wellness/life coaching organizations.
  • The pandemic drove people to seek connection and meaning online.

    “Recruitment is very similar ... it’s gradual. Starts harmless, then demands grow. Social media algorithms reinforce that dependence.” — Carla Subarana, (17:19)

• Risks and Harms

  • Cases include violence, sexual abuse, financial exploitation.

    “They are often much more dangerous than what they seem like.” — Carla Subarana, (18:43)

• How Governments Respond

  • France and Belgium have criminal statutes against psychological manipulation.
  • US/UK focus on crimes already committed, emphasizing freedom of belief.

    “Society still struggles to understand how cults manipulate people into doing things that are against their interests ... prevention is the best way forward.” — Carla Subarana, (19:18–20:35)

Memorable Quotes

• “The door-to-door evangelists and street-corner preachers of the past are being replaced with online influencers, life coaches and self-styled healers.”
  — Carla Subarana, (14:51)

• “It’s incredibly hard to prove to jurors that fear and control can make people comply against their will.”
  — Carla Subarana, (19:52)

Segment 3: Listener Mailbag — The Anxiety of Balding

(Start: 21:23)

Key Points

• Men’s Hair Transplants — A Booming Topic

  • Jason Palmer reflects on a recent episode about men’s anxieties over hair loss and the hair transplant industry.

    “I have spent the last six months working on a story ... to get into the weird and wonderful world of men’s beauty and men’s cosmetic surgery.” — Jason Palmer (Weekend Intelligence), (22:00)

• Listener Feedback: Looks, Dating Apps, and Anxiety

  • Email from listener Aaron: image-focused dating apps heighten looks-related anxieties.

    “Given that app-based platforms generally put a lot of emphasis on images, this results in a more intense selection for looks-based criteria.” — Aaron, (23:13, paraphrased)

  • Perception persists that bald men fare worse in online dating.

• Exploring Perceptions and Realities

  • Women interviewed consistently said baldness is far less important than personality.
  • Apps force people to make visual choices, amplifying first-impression biases.

• The True Stressor: Transition, not State

  • Notable point: “The problem isn’t baldness. The problem is balding.”

    “Having hair is fine and being bald is fine, but going bald sucks.” — Listener’s feedback, (24:25)

  • Confidence and acceptance: embracing baldness can boost self-esteem.

    “[Accepting reality] has actually made me feel more confident ... To be bald is to be bold.” — Radek, listener, (25:35)

• Wider Themes: Manipulation and Insecurity

  • Internet advertising algorithms shape perceptions and insecurities, driving demand for cosmetic solutions.

    “The story is as much about boldness and beauty ... as it is about how the Internet constructs little realities around you.” — Jason Palmer (Weekend Intelligence), (26:14)

Memorable Quotes

• “A five head. It was a very strange situation to be in.”
  — Jason Palmer, recounting a cosmetic surgeon’s comments, (23:02)

• “To be bald is to be bold.”
  — Radek (listener), (25:41)

Notable Timestamps

• 02:33 — Treaty background and legacy
• 03:46 — The dawn of a new arms race (Anton LaGuardia)
• 05:16–06:09 — China as an emergent nuclear power
• 09:24–10:39 — Risks of arms escalation beyond the US/Russia/China triad
• 13:39–17:03 — The digital evolution and expansion of cults
• 21:23 — Men’s hair transplants and beauty anxieties
• 24:25 — “The problem isn’t baldness. The problem is balding.”
• 25:41 — Listener: “To be bald is to be bold.”

Episode Tone

Despite the gravity of the nuclear arms topic, the conversational interviews bring clarity and accessibility to complex policy issues. The cult segment is investigative and cautionary, leveraging expert testimony. The mailbag on men’s hair loss is self-deprecating and relatable, mixing levity with candid discussion of social anxieties.

Conclusion

This episode of The Intelligence delivers a nuanced, globe-spanning analysis of arms control’s demise and why new nuclear risks are so worrying. It shifts seamlessly to emergent threats in the digital world, showing how ancient dynamics like cults and peer pressure have adapted to technology. The show concludes on a personal—and gently humorous—note, reflecting on the social and psychological effects of appearance and online life.