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Schneider Electric Narrator
Are you trying to seize the value from AI? Schneider Electric electrifies, automates and digitalizes every industry, business and home driving efficiency and sustainability for all. Listen to their AI at Scale podcast to hear from AI experts and to get the answers and practical examples of AI for energy and industry. Search AI at Scale podcast by Schneider Electric Today.
John Fazman
Big news. Boost Mobile is now sending experts nationwide to deliver and set up customers new phones at home or work.
Shashank Joshi
Wait, we're going on tour?
John Fazman
Not a tour. We're delivering and setting up customers phones so it's easier to upgrade.
David Adams
Let's get in the tour bus and hit the road.
John Fazman
No not a tour bus. It's a regular car we use to deliver and set up customers phones at home or work.
Jason Palmer
Are you a groupie on this tour?
John Fazman
We deliver and set up phones. It's not a tour.
Shashank Joshi
Oh you're definitely a groupie.
John Fazman
Introducing store to door switch and get a new device with expert setup and delivery wherever you're at.
Shashank Joshi
Delivery available for select devices purchased@boostmobile.com.
Jason Palmer
The Economist. Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist. I'm Jason Palmer.
Rosie Blore
And I'm Rosie Blore. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.
Jason Palmer
The grim standard of living in Cuba has been slipping further recently, due in large part to ever increasing power cuts. It was Venezuelan oil that was keeping the lights on. So what happens now that America seeks to control that light line?
Rosie Blore
And this year's Football World cup will be jointly hosted by America, Canada and Mexico as part of our World Ahead series. We ask why some people are so pessimistic about the 2026 tournament.
Jason Palmer
But first, American forces did something yesterday that they'd already done back in December, seizing an oil tanker with links to Venezuela. This time, though, the international reaction was telling. Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign affairs, questioned the legal basis of the seizure. She pointed out there was no authorization from the UN Security Council. Vasily Dandikhin, a Russian military expert, put it more pointedly. State level piracy. He called it, putting Somali pirates in the US Coast Guard in the same sentence. Now, China, Russia and Iran and others have a vested interest in this story. And in truth, it kind of did look like the sort of hostile takeovers depicted in the movies.
Shashank Joshi
Yesterday, US Forces were seen descending on a helicopter, landing on a ship in the North Atlantic and seizing it.
Jason Palmer
Shashank Joshi is the Economist's defense editor.
Shashank Joshi
It was a U.S. coast Guard that boarded the Marinera oil tanker that was previously known as the Bela one. This was A remarkable slow motion naval chase that had lasted for weeks and it finally came to an end near the waters of Iceland.
Jason Palmer
Yeah, I heard you describe the chase as the O.J. simpson of the North Atlantic. Talk me through it.
Shashank Joshi
Yeah, well, look, so what happened basically, Jason, is last month the US Coast Guard, which is tightening this quarantine that has been declared on Venezuela at the time. Remember, this is prior to that shock operation to seize Nicolas Maduro in Caracas. They attempted to board the Bella One to say to Venezuela, you can't send any sanctioned oil out of your waters. And they tried to do it, but they failed because the Coast Guard didn't have the specialist boarding cruise that it needed at the time. So then the Bella One basically makes a run for it. It shuts off its transponders, you can't see it on ship tracking websites and it turns up in the Atlantic. And not only does it turn up in the Atlantic, it's got a new name, the Marinara. And it has, in almost comic fashion, hastily painted a Russian flag on the side of the hull and has been re registered in Russia's maritime registry to say, hey, I'm Russian, you can't touch me. Then what happened is you can see separately this massive influx of US military forces heading to the uk and everyone's thinking, what is going on? What are these capabilities? And it turns out basically they're the helicopters, the forces, the troops you would need to conduct this kind of operation. The Russians sent a submarine and other naval assets to protect the Bello One, but basically the Americans got there first, they were helped by the British and America goes and nabs this ship. The second one they have done yesterday because they also grab another one called the M. Sophia in Caribbean waters yesterday as well.
Jason Palmer
But just to be clear, America has an interest in these ships because they are carrying Venezuelan oil.
Shashank Joshi
Well, this one wasn't carrying any oil, Venezuelan or otherwise. I think it had been carrying Iranian oil originally, but it probably unloaded that at some point. But the ship is very dodgy. So basically it was placed under sanctions in 2024 by the United States. That was for its involvement in a company that was alleged to be a front for his, which is the Lebanese militant group. And it has moved, I think somewhere in the region of like 25 million barrels of Iranian and Venezuelan oil to China since 2020 or so. And the reason America is going for these ships is basically because having toppled Nicolas Maduro and said it's going to run Venezuela, what it's basically saying is it will run Venezuela by Maintaining an oil embargo on the country to force the rump government to submit to its will. And this along other steps that it's taking to control Venezuelan oil is one aspect of that post raid governance of the country.
Jason Palmer
But there's a lot more going on here than a Venezuelan oil embargo. We've already had mention of Iran, of China, of Russia now and Russia backing up this ship. Talk me through the network that's going on here.
Shashank Joshi
What was interesting when John Healey, the UK Defence Secretary was justifying British involvement in this raid was the way he described it. He says the ship had a nefarious history and he said it was part of a Russian Iranian act axis of sanctions evasion, which is fueling terrorism, conflict and misery. This is part of what's called a shadow fleet which Russia has also used extensively to move oil in defiance of many international and US and European sanctions. So for example, this ship was spotted last August in Iran. It loaded Iranian oil at a place called Kharg Island. But as it was doing it, Jason, it broadcast false location data that's called spoofing to basically imply it was somewhere way further south. So it was basically doing this in a very clandestine way. So you can see how this is an interesting worked example of the nexus between Russia, Iran, Venezuela in a very real tangible way. It's not just some kind of geopolitical alliance, it's an actual thing involving ships, oil, energy sanctions busting in a very real sense on the high seas, sanctions.
Jason Palmer
Busting and location spoofing and all of it essentially illegal behavior that justifies what the Americans have done.
Shashank Joshi
Well, not exactly. I mean these are American sanctions, European sanctions, they're not UN sanctions. And just having domestic sanctions against a ship doesn't give you the right to go and seize it anywhere on the high seas. There is something that does though, because the Bello one originally claimed to be flying the flag of Guiana. Now all ships have to fly a flag. That's a requirement of under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. If they don't fly a flag or if they fly a false flag, they are stateless and they can be boarded. Guyana denied that this was a valid flag. And basically what happened in December was the ship said actually we are a Russian flagged. But if you look at unclos, if you look at this body of law, it says a ship cannot just change its flag halfway through a voyage unless there is a really valid change in ownership. This was probably a stateless ship and that made it in a Legal sense, fair game for seizure.
Jason Palmer
Does that suggest to you that once this shadow fleet comes out of the shadows, it is revealed as Russian backed, that we're heading now towards a more direct conflict between America and Russia as regards these ships?
Shashank Joshi
Interestingly, no. And I thought it was striking that the raids had very little impact on global oil markets. Which tells you this is a Venezuela focused policy. Yes, it involves a ship that claims a Russian flag. Yes, Russia sent naval assets to protect it. But this is an indication Trump is going after Venezuela linked oil. This is not a suggestion. He is going to go after what Europeans are really concerned about, which is the Russian shadow fleet more broadly.
Jason Palmer
So what you expect from here on out is simply more of the Venezuelan oil to be seized rather than for the shadow fleet to be tackled in.
Shashank Joshi
Its entirety and not just seized. Because there's a lot of other strange stuff going on around Venezuela's oil markets. You know, President Trump has said very, very clearly his aim in Venezuela is not human rights. It's not a release of political prisoners. It's not a, you know, early elections to a new regime and a free Venezuela. It's very, very simple. It is American access to oil, in his words, to push global oil prices down, which is pretty ambitious. But what was interesting is yesterday he kind of outlined this slightly madcap scheme and he said Venezuela would be turning over up to 50 million barrels of oil worth around $2.8 billion to the United States. He said that would be sold and the proceeds would be, and I'm quoting, controlled by me, to ensure it's used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States, exclamation mark. But I don't know what cut Trump plans to take. What's very, very clear to me though is that after the toppling of Maduro, after this great Venezuelan gambit, the number one focus for Donald Trump is getting access to Venezuelan oil. And this is all part of that broad effort.
Jason Palmer
It's a shakedown.
Shashank Joshi
It is a shakedown. And I heard yesterday, heard David Frum, who was George W. Bush's speechwriter, I think, describe this as the United States devolving into high tech piracy.
Jason Palmer
Thanks very much for joining us, Zhuzhong.
Shashank Joshi
Thanks so much, Jason.
Schneider Electric Narrator
Are you trying to seize the value from AI? Schneider Electric electrifies automates and digitalizes every industry, business and home, driving efficiency and sustainability for all. Listen to their AI at Scale podcast to hear from AI experts and to get the answers and practical examples of AI for energy and industry. Search AI at Scale podcast by Schneider Electric today.
Jason Palmer
While American forces chase Venezuelan oil all over the map, there's one country in particular that'll soon be feeling the pinch. Well, even more of a pinch. Cuba is more dependent on that oil than perhaps any other country. Cutting it off would make a weakened regime weaker, and the Trump administration knows it. Suffice it to say, you know, Cuba is a disaster. It's Secretary of State Marco Rubio, himself a second generation Cuban American, has taken aim at the country's communist rulers for much of his career. Yeah, look, if I lived in Havana.
John Fazman
And I was in the government, I'd.
Jason Palmer
Be concerned at least a little bit. The oil part of this Venezuela story has all kinds of tendrils to it, from that plain shakedown to how it might affect great power competition. But for a near neighbor and old adversary of America, it might be existential.
David Adams
Relations between Cuba and the United States have always been tense, but this is different.
Jason Palmer
David Adams writes about Cuba for the Economist.
David Adams
Cuba is at a point of fragility that I've never seen before. Cubans are utterly depressed about their state of affairs. They're fearful that what's coming this year is going to be more scarcity, more power cuts, and possibly more repression, too, because the Cuban government has no intention of going anywhere. It will not bow its knee to the imperialists to the north.
Jason Palmer
But let's wind back just a bit. At least in the past few years, it seemed that relations had been improving. What's a sort of potted history of how we got to where we are right now?
David Adams
Well, yes, after decades of US Trade embargo and Cuban resistance and reliance on foreign allies, the Soviet Union, then Venezuela a little bit China today, still a little bit Russia. That appeared in 2014 when President Obama announced his opening with Cuba. That appeared to be a new chapter. Diplomatic relations were restored. Americans were encouraged to go to Cuba for the first time. Cruise ships were sailing from Miami. Tourism was booming in Cuba. But it didn't last very long. And then President Trump became president and everything came to a screeching halt. And then on top of that came Covid, which just completely devastated the Cuban tourism industry, which is what they'd been banking on to be the new economic lifeline. They invested heavily in hotels. Those hotels were all now sitting empty. And President Biden, he really didn't give the Cubans much to play with. And now back with President Trump for a second term. We've seen the pressure ratcheting up.
Jason Palmer
And what is the situation on the ground for ordinary Cubans?
David Adams
Well, look, even before the events of Last weekend, life in Cuba had been getting progressively more and more difficult. The belt has just been tightened and tightened. Shortages of basic food has gotten more acute. And then the big thing in the last year and a half in particular has been these power outages, what they call apagones in Cuba. And these aren't like the power goes off for five minutes. The power goes off for five, six, seven, eight hours a day. The big fear is that these power cuts are going to get longer and longer and it's going to be more and more difficult.
Jason Palmer
And before the events of this weekend, in what way was Venezuela involved in keeping, well, keeping the lights on in Cuba?
David Adams
Well, very much after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, Cuba went through this terrible decade, really, which they called the special period of utter scarcity. And then in December 1998, Commandante Hugo Chavez was elected President of Venezuela and a socialist and a close ally of Fidel Castro in Cuba. And so President Chavez taking office through to his death in 2013, Cuba had a very steady ally and a very steady supply of oil. President Nicolas Maduro took over in 2013, and things went from bad to worse in Venezuela. And Cuba's thermoelectric power plants are very antiquated, and this heavy fuel oil that comes from Venezuela is very corrosive. And they've been having incredible problems keeping these thermoelectric power plants running. Now, the new president, Del C. Rodriguez. One assumes that President Trump is going to demand that President Delsey Rodriguez turns that off.
Jason Palmer
But Donald Trump has various points suggested that he thinks Cuba is failing and that it can now fail more freely in the sort of vacuum left by Mr. Maduro's removal. Do you read anything into that?
David Adams
What I read into that is that President Trump doesn't actually see an awful lot to be gained in Cuba. He famously likes to do things on a quid pro quo basis. So Venezuela has oil and has other minerals. It has a lot of gold. It's got potentially quite a bit to offer. Cuba doesn't really have anything to offer other than potentially interesting retail market for American manufacturers. So he is quite happy to let it sink by itself, let the scarcity do its work. While Secretary of State Marco Rubio is obviously an enormously influential figure, he's not going to do anything that runs counter to what his president is telling him. They may feel that's enough. They've always felt that in the end, Cubans would rebel. Over the years, there've been occasional outbreaks of protests, but frankly, very few. I started covering Cuba in 1988. And I remember reporting on how it was unsustainable. The Cuban Revolution basically had come to an end and it was just a matter of time. And I obviously learned an important lesson, one that Cuban officials liked to remind me of. Don't underestimate the staying power of the Cuban government. They are still highly disciplined, highly organized. They do have a core of revolutionaries. They talk about I can resist here. We have to keep resisting and we'll just have to see how much more resistance is left.
Jason Palmer
David, thanks very much for joining us, Jason.
David Adams
It was my pleasure.
Rosie Blore
World Cups can be as tricky off the field as they are on. Russia was controversial as a tourist destination, and Qatar had almost no stadiums when it won the bid. So when Canada, Mexico and America were confirmed as hosts of the 2026 World cup, they must have seemed simpler places to hold a tournament. But the world has changed since they were chosen. Donald Trump's administration has locked up tourists for minor violations. It snatched foreign students off the street for things they'd said about politics. And America's president has also threatened the other two World cup host countries. As part of our World Ahead series, our senior culture correspondent John Fazman asks whether fans will still want to attend this summer's tournament.
John Fazman
I think the bear case has three planks. The first one is in 2024. The United States hosted the Copa America, which is a tournament of South American teams. And the finals saw some very serious security breaches. Number two, the United States hosted the FIFA Club World cup, and attendance was pretty anemic for most of those games. Both of those things are fairly easy to dismiss. The World cup is a bigger tournament than either of them. The bigger concern is that since Donald Trump took office, tourist numbers to the United States have plummeted. So there are real questions over whether international tourists will want to come to the United States under current conditions and whether American fans, especially fans of Hispanic or Latino origins, will want to come to the stadiums if there are going to be ice patrols outside them.
Rosie Blore
So what's your prediction? Are they going to turn up?
John Fazman
My own prediction is yes, they will. The World cup is a tremendous draw. And Donald Trump, as unwelcoming as his administration has been to immigrants generally, has said that he wants people to come. And so I think that those two things together mean that it's not going to be as much of a disaster as it could have been. I suspect people will want to show up.
Rosie Blore
So how are preparations going at the moment?
John Fazman
Well, the difficult and unique thing about this World cup is that there are actually three hosts. The United States is co hosting with Canada and Mexico. So that requires a level of international cooperation that we really haven't seen before in a single World Cup. Things seem to be going okay. The venues have been chosen. The draw, as you'll have seen, was at the Kennedy center in Washington, D.C. this was a favor to President Trump. I suppose. The only concerning thing is that Donald Trump has threatened to move games out of cities that he deems not safe. Now, whether he actually follows through on that threat is an open question. I would say it's unlikely. It's just not that easy to move previously scheduled World cup games from one stadium to another at the drop of a hat.
Rosie Blore
So, of course, America is a co host with Mexico and Canada. Is there the possibility that anxiety about matches in the US Will mean that Mexico and Canada actually gain from this?
John Fazman
Well, the sights have already been chosen, so I think it's doubtful that you'll see games played anywhere other than where they've said they'd be played. Most of them will be played in the United States. But if you look at fandom as a sort of competition, I think it's certainly possible that Mexico and Canada have a greater number of sold out games than the United States does.
Rosie Blore
John, America used to have a reputation for being pretty rubbish at football. Has that changed in terms of its ability itself, players, or even its fandom?
John Fazman
How good is America? Is something we're going to have to see. I obviously hope they win the whole thing. I think they have a decent shot at doing it. As far as fandom goes, it is worlds different than it was the last time the United States hosted the World cup, which was in 1994. There is a thriving professional soccer league in the United States now. Millions of Americans tune in to the English Premier League, which is broadcast on network TV every weekend. Millions more watch games from Germany and from Spain. And you have youth soccer, which was played when I was little, but was not nearly as big a thing as it is now. So in the 30 years since the last time the United States hosted the World cup, domestic fandom has grown exponentially. I spoke to someone who said that in 1994 when he was managing the games in New York, they really had to rely on immigrants and on visitors to fill the stadium. That's much less the case now. You have a huge domestic fan base, which you didn't have before.
Rosie Blore
So what kind of image do you think America will end up projecting with this World cup hosting?
John Fazman
It's certainly possible that it could be a disaster. I suspect that won't happen. I suspect that with the eyes of the world on the United States, the administration, the fans and FIFA will rise to the occasion and we'll have a successful and very well attended World Cup.
Rosie Blore
John, thank you very much.
John Fazman
Thanks, Rosie.
Jason Palmer
That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Schneider Electric Narrator
Are you trying to seize the value from AI? Schneider Electric electrifies, automates and digitalizes every industry, business and home driving efficiency and sustainability for all. Listen to their AI at Scale podcast to hear from AI experts and to get the answers and practical examples of AI for energy and industry. Search AI at Scale podcast by Schneider Electric today.
Date: January 8, 2026
Host: Jason Palmer
Contributors: Shashank Joshi (Defence Editor), Rosie Blore, David Adams (Cuba Correspondent), John Fazman (Senior Culture Correspondent)
This episode uncovers the escalating saga of America’s oil tanker seizures amid sanctions enforcement on Venezuela, connecting the high-stakes naval drama to broader geopolitical tensions involving Russia, Iran, and China. The episode then pivots to the dire implications for oil-dependent Cuba, and concludes with a look at the upcoming 2026 Football World Cup, co-hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico, and explores questions over security, attendance, and the tournament’s political climate.
Notable Quote
"It kind of did look like the sort of hostile takeovers depicted in the movies."
— Jason Palmer (02:04)
Notable Quote
"This was a remarkable slow motion naval chase that had lasted for weeks and it finally came to an end near the waters of Iceland."
— Shashank Joshi (03:23)
Notable Quote
"If you look at [the Law of the Sea], it says a ship cannot just change its flag halfway through a voyage unless there is a really valid change in ownership. This was probably a stateless ship and that made it in a legal sense, fair game for seizure."
— Shashank Joshi (08:29)
Notable Quotes
"The number one focus for Donald Trump is getting access to Venezuelan oil. And this is all part of that broad effort."
— Shashank Joshi (10:31)
"It's a shakedown."
— Jason Palmer (10:39)
"It is a shakedown."
— Shashank Joshi (10:40)
Notable Quote
"Cuba is at a point of fragility that I've never seen before. Cubans are utterly depressed about their state of affairs...The Cuban government has no intention of going anywhere. It will not bow its knee to the imperialists to the north."
— David Adams (12:51 & 13:15)
Notable Quote
"Don't underestimate the staying power of the Cuban government. They are still highly disciplined, highly organized...We'll just have to see how much more resistance is left."
— David Adams (18:23)
Notable Quote
"Since Donald Trump took office, tourist numbers to the United States have plummeted. So there are real questions over whether international tourists will want to come."
— John Fazman (19:52)
Notable Quote
"There is a thriving professional soccer league in the United States now...So in the 30 years since the last time the United States hosted the World cup, domestic fandom has grown exponentially."
— John Fazman (22:19)
"I suspect that with the eyes of the world on the United States, the administration, the fans and FIFA will rise to the occasion and we'll have a successful and very well attended World Cup."
— John Fazman (23:17)
"State level piracy. He called it, putting Somali pirates in the US Coast Guard in the same sentence."
— Russian expert on US actions, quoted by Jason Palmer (02:19)
"It's very, very simple. It is American access to oil, in his words, to push global oil prices down, which is pretty ambitious."
— Shashank Joshi on Trump’s policy (09:43)
"Life in Cuba had been getting progressively more and more difficult. The belt has just been tightened and tightened. Shortages of basic food has gotten more acute. And then the big thing in the last year and a half in particular has been these power outages."
— David Adams (14:49–15:32)
"In the 30 years since the last time the United States hosted the World cup, domestic fandom has grown exponentially."
— John Fazman (22:44)
This episode vividly explores America’s aggressive approach to enforcing oil sanctions on Venezuela and details the complex web of international actors, legal nuances, and economic motivations at play, all animated through real-life naval chases and diplomatic sparring. It then grounds these global games in concrete local impact, spotlighting Cuba’s worsening blackout-induced misery and political resilience. The show closes with a forward-looking, measured debate on whether the world will embrace or avoid the US during the politically charged 2026 World Cup.