Economist Podcasts — The Intelligence

"Oil Pressure: America’s Tanker Seizures"

Date: January 8, 2026
Host: Jason Palmer
Contributors: Shashank Joshi (Defence Editor), Rosie Blore, David Adams (Cuba Correspondent), John Fazman (Senior Culture Correspondent)

Episode Overview

This episode uncovers the escalating saga of America’s oil tanker seizures amid sanctions enforcement on Venezuela, connecting the high-stakes naval drama to broader geopolitical tensions involving Russia, Iran, and China. The episode then pivots to the dire implications for oil-dependent Cuba, and concludes with a look at the upcoming 2026 Football World Cup, co-hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico, and explores questions over security, attendance, and the tournament’s political climate.

Main Segment 1: America’s Venezuelan Oil Tanker Seizures

What Happened?

• US Coast Guard Seizures:
  • Yesterday, American forces seized an oil tanker linked to Venezuela — the Marinera (formerly Bella One) — after a protracted North Atlantic naval chase (03:11–03:42).
  • A simultaneous seizure took place in the Caribbean (M. Sophia) (04:21).
  • Both actions have provoked strong reactions from China, Russia, and Iran, who question the legal basis and view the moves as equivalent to "state piracy" (02:04–03:11).

Notable Quote

"It kind of did look like the sort of hostile takeovers depicted in the movies."
— Jason Palmer (02:04)

The Chase Details & International Response

• Slow-Motion Pursuit:
  • The ship cut its transponders and changed name/flag to appear Russian, trying to evade seizure (03:50–04:21).
  • Russia responded with naval assets, but the US, aided by the UK, acted first (04:08–04:21).
• Sanctions Physics:
  • The Bella One/Marinera had a history of sanctions-busting, facilitating 25 million barrels of Venezuelan and Iranian oil to China since 2020 (05:27–05:56).
  • The US justifies the embargo as part of its post-Maduro policy to force the remaining Venezuelan government to accede to American terms (05:56–06:24).

Notable Quote

"This was a remarkable slow motion naval chase that had lasted for weeks and it finally came to an end near the waters of Iceland."
— Shashank Joshi (03:23)

The Shadow Fleet and Legal Quagmire

• Shadow Fleet:
  • Ships like the Marinera are part of a clandestine network (the “shadow fleet”) for sanctions evasion involving Russia and Iran (06:24–07:46).
  • Practices like ‘location spoofing’ are used to hide illegal oil movements.
• Legal Framework:
  • The US acted because the ship was determined to be “stateless” under international law, due to inconsistent flag registration—making it potentially "fair game" for seizure (07:54–08:49).

Notable Quote

"If you look at [the Law of the Sea], it says a ship cannot just change its flag halfway through a voyage unless there is a really valid change in ownership. This was probably a stateless ship and that made it in a legal sense, fair game for seizure."
— Shashank Joshi (08:29)

Geopolitical Consequences

• Not Escalating to US-Russia Confrontation—Yet:
  • Despite Russian involvement, the markets and policymakers see this as a “Venezuela-focused policy,” not a broader assault on the Russian shadow fleet (09:01–09:27).
• Motives Are Oil and Leverage, Not Human Rights:
  • Trump’s administration emphasizes seizing oil to gain direct access and manage supply, with the explicit aim to depress global oil prices, ignoring traditional diplomatic or humanitarian objectives (09:35–10:39).

Notable Quotes

"The number one focus for Donald Trump is getting access to Venezuelan oil. And this is all part of that broad effort."
— Shashank Joshi (10:31)

"It's a shakedown."
— Jason Palmer (10:39)
"It is a shakedown."
— Shashank Joshi (10:40)

Main Segment 2: Cuba’s Fragility Amid Oil Sanctions

Cuba’s Dire Situation

• Dependence on Venezuelan Oil:
  • Ongoing power outages (“apagones”), economic shortages, and rising repression are linked directly to the interruption of Venezuelan oil flows (11:47–15:39).
• Historical Context:
  • US-Cuba relations briefly warmed during Obama’s presidency, tanked under Trump, and have only worsened in Trump’s return (13:35–14:45).
  • Cuba’s reliance shifted from the Soviet Union to Venezuela, with the latter becoming crucial after the USSR’s collapse (15:39–16:50).

Notable Quote

"Cuba is at a point of fragility that I've never seen before. Cubans are utterly depressed about their state of affairs...The Cuban government has no intention of going anywhere. It will not bow its knee to the imperialists to the north."
— David Adams (12:51 & 13:15)

• Uncertain Future:
  • With the US aiming to cut Venezuela’s oil supply to Cuba, the economic and political resilience of the Cuban regime will be sorely tested (16:50–17:02).

US Stance and Calculations

• Trump’s Calculus:
  • “Let Cuba fail” — the administration sees little to gain from Cuba, focusing instead on squeezing Venezuela for its oil and minerals (17:02–17:59).
  • Despite expectations of regime collapse, Adams counsels not to underestimate the staying power of the Cuban communist government.

Notable Quote

"Don't underestimate the staying power of the Cuban government. They are still highly disciplined, highly organized...We'll just have to see how much more resistance is left."
— David Adams (18:23)

Main Segment 3: 2026 World Cup – Worries and Expectations

Concerns about Hosting

• Security and Attendance Fears:
  • Past US-hosted tournaments saw security breaches and low attendance (19:52–20:36).
  • Sharp drop in tourist numbers due to Trump-era immigration policies adds uncertainty for the World Cup’s international attendance.

Notable Quote

"Since Donald Trump took office, tourist numbers to the United States have plummeted. So there are real questions over whether international tourists will want to come."
— John Fazman (19:52)

• Optimism Persists:
  • Despite unease, the World Cup remains a powerful draw and Trump (despite an exclusionary posture) wants people to attend (20:38).

Logistical Challenges

• Tri-national Hosting:
  • Coordinating the cup between US, Canada, and Mexico is “unique.” There are threats from Trump to move games out of cities he deems unsafe (20:59–21:40), but such moves are seen as unlikely.
• Changing Football Culture:
  • American fandom has grown dramatically since the US last hosted the World Cup in 1994. Now, there is "a huge domestic fan base" (22:19–23:11).

Notable Quote

"There is a thriving professional soccer league in the United States now...So in the 30 years since the last time the United States hosted the World cup, domestic fandom has grown exponentially."
— John Fazman (22:19)

Projected Outcomes

• Most games will still be played as planned in the US, but Canadian and Mexican venues might enjoy greater sell-outs if anxieties linger (21:52).
• While the risk of a disaster remains, the expectation is for a successful, well-attended tournament (23:17–23:31).

"I suspect that with the eyes of the world on the United States, the administration, the fans and FIFA will rise to the occasion and we'll have a successful and very well attended World Cup."
— John Fazman (23:17)

Memorable Moments & Powerful Quotes (with Timestamps)

• On State Piracy:

  "State level piracy. He called it, putting Somali pirates in the US Coast Guard in the same sentence."
  — Russian expert on US actions, quoted by Jason Palmer (02:19)

• On US Motivations:

  "It's very, very simple. It is American access to oil, in his words, to push global oil prices down, which is pretty ambitious."
  — Shashank Joshi on Trump’s policy (09:43)

• On Cuba’s Plight:

  "Life in Cuba had been getting progressively more and more difficult. The belt has just been tightened and tightened. Shortages of basic food has gotten more acute. And then the big thing in the last year and a half in particular has been these power outages."
  — David Adams (14:49–15:32)

• On Football Fandom:

  "In the 30 years since the last time the United States hosted the World cup, domestic fandom has grown exponentially."
  — John Fazman (22:44)

Important Timestamps

• 01:05–02:04: Episode theme introduction: Cuba’s power crisis, Venezuelan oil, US measures
• 03:11–09:35: Oil tanker seizing, shadow fleet, geopolitical dynamics (Shashank Joshi)
• 11:47–18:43: Cuban dependency, social impact, historical context (David Adams)
• 19:03–23:33: 2026 World Cup anxieties, US image, changing fandom (John Fazman)

Tone & Style Notes

• Objective but Wry: The hosts maintain classic Economist detachment, but wryly observe the “movie-style” drama and absurdities in recent global affairs.
• Direct Attribution: Guests and journalists offer analysis, but don’t shy from blunt assessments, e.g., calling US actions a “shakedown” or “state piracy.”
• Global Context: Even as individual stories unfold, the narrative keeps linking back to larger geopolitical themes: great power rivalry, sanctions evasion, and domestic consequences in places like Cuba.

Summary

This episode vividly explores America’s aggressive approach to enforcing oil sanctions on Venezuela and details the complex web of international actors, legal nuances, and economic motivations at play, all animated through real-life naval chases and diplomatic sparring. It then grounds these global games in concrete local impact, spotlighting Cuba’s worsening blackout-induced misery and political resilience. The show closes with a forward-looking, measured debate on whether the world will embrace or avoid the US during the politically charged 2026 World Cup.