Power ballot: Japanese PM’s electoral gamble

Summary

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Economist Podcasts – Power Ballot: Japanese PM’s Electoral Gamble

Date: January 20, 2026
Host: Jason Palmer and Rosie Blore
Special Guest: Noah Snyder, East Asia Bureau Chief

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Overview

This episode explores Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae’s high-stakes decision to call a snap election less than 100 days into her term. The discussion examines her personal popularity, the struggles of her ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), evolving opposition alliances, and the broader implications for Japanese politics and policy.

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Main Theme

Japan’s first female prime minister, Takaichi Sanae, is leveraging her unprecedented public approval by calling a snap election, aiming to secure a stronger mandate for herself and her party amid rising challenges from new centrist alliances and populist parties. The episode unpacks the motives, risks, and potential outcomes of this bold political gambit.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Snap Election: Context and Motives

[01:21–02:35]

• Historic Move: Takaichi Sanae calls an early election—the shortest campaign in postwar Japanese history.
• Tactical Reasoning: The election is an attempt to capitalize on her soaring popularity, giving voters a direct say on her leadership and aiming to consolidate the LDP’s precarious one-seat lower house majority.

“She said she wanted to let the people of Japan decide whether or not she should be Prime Minister.”
—Noah Snyder [02:35]

2. Takaichi’s Popularity vs. LDP’s Weakness

[03:39–05:24]

• Unusual Popularity: Takaichi’s approval ratings hover at or above 70%, the highest since Prime Minister Koizumi in the early 2000s.
  • Attributes: Plain-spoken style, performative flair, relatable background, differs sharply from traditional older male party leaders.
  • Example: Played drums with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung in Nara.
  • Extremes in youth support—90%+ approval among under-30s in a recent poll.
• Modest Policy Achievements: Large supplementary budget, deft foreign relations, stood up to China over Taiwan issue.

“I think it’s really a question of style more than substance, at least at this stage.”
—Noah Snyder [03:49]

3. LDP’s Enduring Troubles

[05:24–06:30]

• Party in Decline: The LDP has been beset by scandals, rising competition, and the impact of inflation and social media.
  • Result: Lost its outright majority in October 2024.
• Takaichi’s Appointment: Brought in to rejuvenate party fortunes, but LDP support remains stagnant, roughly matching last election levels.

“It’s gone from one scandal to another over fundraising and campaign practices, and its image has been sullied.”
—Noah Snyder [05:28]

4. Opposition Strategies

[06:30–07:34]

• Centrist Reform Alliance:

  • Constitutional Democratic Party (center-left) allies with Komeito (centrist, Buddhist), the LDP’s former coalition partner.
  • Komeito’s organizational muscle (Soka Gakkai) may swing close districts.
  • Unknown whether centrism appeals to voters but could be a crucial LDP headache.

• Emergence of Populists:

  • Democratic Party for the People: Centrist with populist flair, focused on economic relief for ordinary citizens.
  • Do It Yourself Party (“San Seito”): Far-right, anti-immigration and identity politics.
  • Populists’ support down since Takaichi took office, but underlying drivers (inflation, social media) persist.

“These two parties could play crucial roles in this upcoming election.”
—Noah Snyder [08:42]

5. The Stakes: How Big a Gamble?

[08:42–10:23]

• Victory’s Definition: Not “if” LDP wins, but by “how much.”
  • Goal: Secure LDP outright majority without coalition help for stronger mandate.
  • Markets respond favorably, expecting fiscal expansion, new industrial policy, and security reforms—but also higher government bond yields.
• Risks: If Takaichi fails, it could mean renewed political instability—another turn of Japan’s notorious “revolving door” of prime ministers.

“She’s not only putting her party’s standing in parliament on the line, she’s putting her own position as prime minister on the line.”
—Noah Snyder [10:18]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On PM Takaichi’s Strategy:

  “This is a pretty big gamble in order to consolidate her power base while her popularity is high.”
  — Noah Snyder [02:56]

• On Her Appeal:

  “She’s got a kind of an every woman background and a really sharp and striking contrast with the leaders who’ve preceded her...”
  — Noah Snyder [04:23]

• On LDP’s Position:

  “While the party has seen its support rise slightly since Takeichi took office, it’s still only at about the same level as the time of the last lower house election...”
  — Noah Snyder [06:17]

• On the Electoral Stakes:

  “If Takaichi emerges with a stronger majority... she can claim a big victory. And that seems to be what a lot of folks are expecting.”
  — Noah Snyder [09:12]

• On Potential Consequences:

  “If that [victory] doesn’t happen... we’ll probably see another turn of the revolving door of prime ministers.”
  — Noah Snyder [10:07]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• The Snap Election and Rationale — [01:21–02:56]
• Takaichi’s Popularity and Persona — [03:39–05:24]
• LDP Troubles & Political Competition — [05:24–07:34]
• Populist Parties’ Rise — [07:37–08:42]
• Assessment of Risks and Verdict — [08:47–10:23]

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Tone & Style

The conversation is analytical yet accessible, blending political data with vivid anecdotes. The hosts and guest maintain a neutral-but-engaged Economist style, balancing skeptical scrutiny with nuanced optimism.

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Conclusion

Takaichi Sanae’s move to call Japan’s shortest-ever election campaign is both historic and risky. While her star-power is unprecedented in modern Japanese politics, the structural weaknesses of the LDP, growing opposition alliances, and populist pressure mean the results are anything but certain. The eyes of Japan—and markets—are keenly watching whether her high-wire act will pay off.

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Transcript

[Schwab/Monday.com/MeUndies Advertiser]

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[Jason Palmer]

The economist. Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist. I'm Jason Palmer.

[Rosie Blore]

And I'm Rosie Blore. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

[Jason Palmer]

In the books about long ago pirates on the high seas, anything goes. Turns out it's the same story for fishermen today. There just hasn't been a workable international treaty to protect the high seas in their fishy bounty until now.

[Rosie Blore]

And just in case your New Year diet involves drugs too, you'd better listen to this one. The rise of weight loss medicines has led to some fancy restaurants to offer tiny meals at fancy prices. Sounds like an unhappy meal to me. But first, Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi Sanai is taking a gamble. Yesterday, less than 100 days into her term, she called a snap election. Parliament will be dissolved on Friday and elections for the powerful lower house held on February 8th. That makes it the shortest campaign in Japan's post war history, and it comes little more than a year after the previous poll. Since becoming Japan's first female prime minister, Takaichi's approval ratings have been consistently high, less so the group she heads, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, or ldp. So will the gamble pay off?

[Noah Snyder]

Takaichi Sanae says it's essential that she wins a direct mandate from the voters. In her press conference, she said she wanted to let the people of Japan decide whether or not she should be Prime Minister.

[Rosie Blore]

Noah Snyder is our East Asia Bureau Chief.

[Noah Snyder]

Now the part that she didn't say out loud is that this is a pretty big gamble in order to consolidate her power base while her popularity is high and she's betting that this is the right timing, the peak moment of her popularity to carry the party to a stronger position in the powerful lower house, a stronger position than the one it currently holds, which is a very slim one seat majority. And the question for Takaichi and for the LDP heading into this election is whether her personal appeal is really enough to help her much less popular party fend off big challenges from a new opposition alliance and from upstart populist outfits.

[Rosie Blore]

So before we get to the election, Noah, I feel like this is a rare chance to talk about a popular politician who's actually in power. Why is she so popular?

[Noah Snyder]

It is an unusual situation. I mean, both globally and in Japan, her ratings have been around 70% or even above 70% in most polls here since she took office. At this stage in her administration, it's basically the highest ratings we've seen for a Japanese administration since the early 2000s, when the Uber popular Koizumi Junichiro was prime minister. With Takaichi, I think it's really a question of style more than substance, at least at this stage. She's plain spoken and she's got a performative flair. I mean, just the other week, she was in her hometown of Nara with the South Korean president, Lee Jae Myung, and she busted out her old drumsticks to play a duet with him. And she's got a kind of an every woman background and a really sharp and striking contrast with the leaders who've preceded her, who tended to be older men in gray suits from political dynasties. And that's helped her appeal especially to younger voters here in Japan. Amongst voters under 30, her ratings have exceeded even 90% in one recent poll. Her policy accomplishments, by contrast, are thinner. She's passed a big supplementary budget, which had a lot of goodies for voters who've been feeling the pinch from inflation. And she's been deft in her handling of foreign relations, including a big visit from Donald Trump last year. And also she's stood up to Chinese pressure during a recent diplomatic spat over Taiwan. So there may be a bit of a rally around the flag effect working in her favor as well.

[Rosie Blore]

But you said that her party, the ldp, is much less popular.

[Noah Snyder]

That's right, Rosie. And the party turned to Takaichi last fall in order to revive its flagging fortunes. The ldp, as we've talked about many times before, has long dominated Japanese politics. It has held power with only two brief interruptions since its creation in 1955. But in recent years, the party has been slipping. It's gone from one scandal to another over fundraising and campaign practices, and its image has been sullied. And at the same time, inflation has been pinching, and social media has really come to play a bigger role in Japanese politics. And that's all made for a much more competitive political scene. So the LDP is feeling that competitive pressure. And while the party has seen its support rise slightly since Takeichi took office, it's still only at about the same level as the time of the last lower house election in October of 2024. And that was when the LDP first lost its outright majority in the lower house.

[Rosie Blore]

So how is the opposition going to approach this election?

[Noah Snyder]

Well, there's two parts to this story, Rosie. One is what's happening with the centrist parties. The old school, center left mainstream opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has just entered into an interesting new alliance with in fact, the LDP's former coalition partner, Comito, which is a center right lay Buddhist party. They're calling themselves the Centrist Reform Alliance. Now, we the economists might love to see more reform minded centrism, but it remains to be seen whether that's what Japanese voters actually want. Nonetheless, that new alliance could pose a big problem for the ldp because Komeito was traditionally really important in mobilizing voters in closely contested districts. They've got a big support base from the Buddhist group Soka Gakkai, and they have helped to swing close districts in many past elections. So that's one thing to watch heading into this vote. But there's also a second part of the story, which is the upstart populists who I mentioned earlier.

[Rosie Blore]

And how are the upstart populists doing? Do they pose a threat?

[Noah Snyder]

It's a different kind of threat. They are still relatively small in terms of absolute numbers. But there are two parties that have managed to break through and start to shift the discourse. One is the Democratic Party for the People, which is a centrist outfit with some populist flair. But they've been pushing a lot on economic policies that are aimed at helping working people, lowering the burden for the every man and every woman in Japan. And the other is a party that calls itself the do it Yourself Party. You might know them as San Seito, and they're a more nativist group on the hard right. And they've been hitting hard on immigration and on sort of identity politics issues. Their support rates have slid since Takaichi took office, which may again be part of the reason why she thinks this is a good moment to call this election. But the underlying forces that have fueled their emergence, from immigration to inflation to social media, they're still there. So these two parties could play crucial roles in this upcoming election.

[Rosie Blore]

So what's your verdict, Noa? Will Takeachi's gamble pay off? How will she do?

[Noah Snyder]

Well, part of the answer to that question depends on how you define winning, Rosie. And in Japanese politics, as ever, it's not really a question of whether the LDP will win or lose, but by how much the LDP will win. I don't think the LDP is in danger of outright losing power in this election, but if Takaichi emerges with a stronger majority than the one she currently commands, maybe with an outright majority for the LDP on its own, without its new coalition partner, she can claim a big victory. And that seems to be what a lot of folks are expecting. Markets are already pricing in essentially the impact of Takaichi having a freer hand to pursue policies she's promised to implement if she gets this mandate from voters. And a lot of that is big spending, fiscal expansionism, a new industrial policy, defense and security reforms. So we've seen stock markets boom while bond yields on the flip side have spiked, hitting the highest levels in nearly three decades for long term government bonds. But there is of course a chance that this gamble doesn't pay off. And if that happens, I think Japanese politics, which have been getting messier in recent years, will only continue to get even more messy. We'll probably see another turn of the revolving door of prime ministers. Takaichi herself seems to have no illusions about the stakes. When she announced the snap election, she made it very clear that she's not only putting her party's standing in parliament on the line, she's putting her own position as prime minister on the line.

[Rosie Blore]

Noah, thank you very much for talking to me.

[Noah Snyder]

Thank you as ever for having me.

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You know the usual suspects when it comes to fronting the global conservation movement. Mostly they're charismatic land animals. Pandas, elephants, rhinos. But there is and has long been a glaring blind spot in conservation policy. The high seas, the parts of the oceans that are outside each maritime country's exclusive economic zone off its shores. Now, at long last, there's a credible international effort to produce protect those seas from plunder.

[Dominic Ziegler]

Up till now, nearly half of the Earth's surface was pretty much a free for all when it came to conservation.

[Jason Palmer]

Dominic Ziegler is a senior editor at the Economist.

[Dominic Ziegler]

But international waters will now come under the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction agreement. It's a UN agreement, and it was signed by 145 countries. That's quite an accomplishment in this age when multilateral cooperation is on the the way.

[Jason Palmer]

And what exactly was the state of play with conservation on the high seas before now? There was no protection until now.

[Dominic Ziegler]

On the high seas, it's been a wild west. There have been a couple of protected areas that countries that neighbor the high seas have agreed on, but they're very small, currently less than 1% of the high seas. There is also a regulation of kinds amongst fisheries organizations, but these agreements don't protect wildlife or biodiversity more broadly. And besides, most of these organizations are not well run and have allowed massive overfishing of the seas that they are supposed to have oversight of.

[Jason Palmer]

So what's prompted this big, sweeping, globe spanning treaty?

[Dominic Ziegler]

Well, scientists for a couple of decades now have been urging protection in the high seas. And that's in big part because of very big declines in many fish stocks, many commercial fish stocks. But there's also more awareness of the importance that the ocean plays as a carbon sink and as a regulator of the climate. And of course, this isn't just about biodiversity and sea ecosystems. Many human communities depend upon healthy seas for their livelihood, for their sustenance. And in ecological terms, the ocean's health is right now going downhill.

[Jason Palmer]

Well, tell me more about that. What do you mean by that?

[Dominic Ziegler]

Well, the first big issue is overfishing. There have been huge declines in many commercially fished stocks since the 1970s. In fact, one study shows that most fish stocks that are being removed are being removed faster than they can Reproduce. More recently, the ocean's crucial contributions to the climate cycle have come into focus. It's not just that the ocean is the Earth's chief climate buffer. By absorbing atmospheric heat and slowing global warming, it's also the biggest carbon sink. But here, warming seas, acidification, pollution, and degraded ecosystems, well, they're really hurting the ocean's ability to absorb carbon dioxide. And then lastly, tiny phytoplankton in the ocean are by far Earth's biggest producers of oxygen. I mean, much more so than tropical forests. For instance, one bacterium alone called Prochlorococcus produces 20% of the oxygen in our entire biosphere.

[Jason Palmer]

So how much of this new effort, this treaty, is about directly addressing fishing and how that's done.

[Dominic Ziegler]

It's not just that commercial fish stocks are being overfished. It's also that the bycatch of these fishing operations is huge. These are animals like dolphins, turtles, sharks. And so the heart of the ocean, by fishing, is not just commercial fish stocks. It's widespread and it's devastating. We've seen sharp falls in the populations of a number of charismatic megafauna. And of course, the most hugely destructive thing is bottom trawling. I mean, these are great heavy beams that drag nets across the seabed, and they not only catch the commercial fish that are being hunted, they leave a nuclear winter behind. It's incredibly damaging.

[Jason Palmer]

So talk me through the structure of this treaty, then, how it aims to deal with the damage caused by fishing and indeed by any other mismanagement of the oceans.

[Dominic Ziegler]

The Hyates Treaty has a few key pillars. One is equitably sharing scientific knowledge and marine resources, especially marine genetic resources. Now, this is slightly for the future, but a better understanding of marine genetics might open new avenues for pharmaceuticals. It might just be valuable for understanding the kind of biodiversity in the ocean that we're all trying to protect. But the treaty is very clear. The ocean is the common heritage of mankind. Another pillar, and an important one, is the requirement that all activities in the ocean that might have an impact must be accompanied by an environmental impact assessment. And then these assessments are also going to be shared. So it's going to be really important for determining which activities in the ocean, fishing, seabed, mining, extraction of oil and gas, which ones are harmful and which are not. Lastly, and perhaps most important, the High Seas Treaty allows the areas of the ocean to be designated as marine protected areas. And if these no fishing or other resource extraction can take place as on land, protected areas are by far the best way to ensure the health of ecosystems and of biodiversity. And to work best, they need to be big and they need to be networked to a broader canvas of marine protected areas. You know, after all, fish, phytoplankton whales, they're all highly mobile. They go to different places to breed, different places to feed. And it's important that the protected areas reflect those habits.

[Jason Palmer]

All of that makes great sense and sounds like a worthy goal. But it's easy to be skeptical that all of this can be done, that everyone will pull together to head off the tragedy of the commons.

[Dominic Ziegler]

Well, you're right to be skeptical, Jason, and there's an awful lot of bureaucratic progress that has to be made first. But still, I do think that this treaty really marks significant progress. And although not every country has signed up, notably the US doesn't want to be part of it right now, 145 countries have come together and have acknowledged that there are problems in the ocean and there are problems that affect humans too. So I'm hopeful. I really think that now is the best chance in years for protecting the high seas. And that chance is really there for countries to take.

[Jason Palmer]

Dom, thanks very much for joining us.

[Dominic Ziegler]

Thank you, Jason.

[Otto Tapasse (Restaurant Owner)]

Caviar, a soft boiled egg and a wild one in buttersous. Then from Imperial Caviar, seared king salad, a chicken essence.

[Henrietta McFarlane]

Otto's is a restaurant in London best known for serving generous portions of indulgent French dishes.

[Rosie Blore]

Henrietta McFarlane is a senior producer on the intelligence.

[Henrietta McFarlane]

The co owner, Otto Tapasse talked me through menus of lobster, pressed duck, burgers heaped with caviar and foie gras.

[Otto Tapasse (Restaurant Owner)]

I've been hearing a lot of these burgers, which are basically more than 600 gram of meat and lobster and caviar and truffle and so on. And our portions, believe me, are not small.

[Henrietta McFarlane]

But last year when a regular customer told Otto he was taking weight loss medication and so wouldn't be able to dine so often, he decided the restaurant had to adapt.

[Otto Tapasse (Restaurant Owner)]

And I thought to myself, that's not very good. So when he came the next time, I said, I've made a special menu for you.

[Henrietta McFarlane]

Otto's launched a feel good menu of exquisite bites of things like king scallop and pan fried veal.

[Otto Tapasse (Restaurant Owner)]

You get all the luxury, the beauty of the produce, but you get it in small quantities.

[Henrietta McFarlane]

Other restaurants are downsizing their dishes too. At the Fat Duck, a three Michelin starred restaurant, Heston Blumenthal offers a mindful experience option. Their menu, claiming sometimes less really is more. And Renwick Hospitality Group, which Owns several restaurants in New York, has added snack size options to its menus.

[Rosie Blore]

And how much does one of these cost?

[Henrietta McFarlane]

So a feel grid menu at Otto's is currently marked at £190, which does seem like quite a lot of money for such small bites of food.

[Rosie Blore]

So the very opposite of McDonald's super size me meal deals.

[Henrietta McFarlane]

Exactly.

[Rosie Blore]

Okay, so before we get to these mini meals though, are enough people really on weight loss drugs that restaurants are actually having to respond?

[Henrietta McFarlane]

Rosie, it's pretty amazing. The popularity of these drugs is just ballooning. In 2024, global spending on them was US$54 billion. That figure's only going to get bigger as pharmaceutical companies compete to make the drugs more effective and easier to use. About one in eight American adults has now taken AGLP, one drug for weight loss. And in Britain, between 4 and 7% of adults are users. That's a similar proportion to the number of vegetarians or anyone with a food allergy. So it's pretty significant. And what these drugs do is they mimic the hormone that signals to your body that it's full, suppressing your appetite, meaning that you eat less. So if all these people are on them, that's going to have a pretty big impact on how people want to go out to eat or if they do it all.

[Rosie Blore]

So a lack of appetite tends to be bad news for restaurants, right?

[Henrietta McFarlane]

Yeah. You think so? And I think that's the question that a lot of restaurants are asking themselves at the moment, but it's not necessarily the case. So currently most GLP1 users come from middle or high income households and those are the same people that can afford to dine out at upscale venues regularly. And A report by KAM, which is a research agency, found that nearly 60% of users say they only plan to visit restaurants on special occasions. So that all seems pretty bad. But this same report actually outlined some really interesting preferences of people on the drugs. It found that whilst people on the drugs want to eat less and drink less, maybe opting for small sharing plates or mini cocktails, they actually are prepared to pay a premium for high quality ingredients. For restaurants operating on very thin profit margins, it could be kind of an opportunity to slap a big markup on a tiny plate.

[Jonny Forsyth]

We've always seen that actually in retail as well, that if you shrink a product, you can still charge proportionately more for it than you would on a gram by dollar basis if it was a bigger item.

[Henrietta McFarlane]

Jonny Forsyth researches food and drink trends for Mintel, which is another research outfit, and he reckons that same retail Psychology applies here to restaurants serving smaller dishes.

[Rosie Blore]

Henrietta, the sorts of restaurants you're talking about here are the fancy establishments that have always offered small things for high prices. But how does that affect the rest of the restaurant market?

[Henrietta McFarlane]

Yeah, so it is true that at the moment we're talking about fine dining establishments, and that's mostly because of who is taking the drugs at the moment. I mentioned that it was mostly people from middle and higher income backgrounds, but that might change. Donald Trump recently announced deals in the US with pharmaceutical companies to lower the cost of the drugs and make them more accessible to even more people. And there are signs already that this is influencing casual dining. So a burger joint called Clinton hall in New York launched a teeny weeny mini meal, which is made up of a mini burger, mini fries and mini drink. And Cuba Libre, which is an American chain, offers a GLP wonderful menu. And the impact might be even broader than that. Johnny Forsyth told me that the rise of GLP1 drugs has led to this increased awareness of portion inflation and super sized meals and all these things that have ballooned since the 70s and 80s.

[Jonny Forsyth]

Yeah, portion control is coming back in anyway. But if it gets a tailwind through something like GLP1, I think that's ultimately a good thing.

[Henrietta McFarlane]

And so for restaurants, the time seems to have come to think small. Henrietta, thank you very much. Thanks for having me, Rosie.

[Rosie Blore]

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. See you back here tomorrow.

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