Economist Podcasts: "Right, here, waiting: Europe’s populists on the rise"

Date: December 12, 2025
Host: Jason Palmer
Guests: Tom Nuttall (Berlin Bureau Chief), Sophie Petter (Paris Bureau Chief), Matthew Hullhouse (Britain Political Correspondent)

Overview

This episode explores the surging popularity and political impact of populist right-wing parties across Europe—specifically, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), France’s National Rally, and Britain’s Reform UK. The discussion features correspondents from Germany, France, and Britain, who provide country-specific insights into the causes, consequences, and possible trajectories of this populist wave. The episode highlights both parallels and key differences in how these movements are reshaping each nation's political landscape, and considers the evolving strategies of centrist parties in response.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Populist Parties: Electoral Breakthroughs and Surging Polls

[01:47-04:41]

• Germany (AfD): Achieved its best ever result in the February Bundestag elections (~21%) and is now polling neck and neck (~26%) with the leading centrist Christian Democrats.
  Tom Nuttall: “By far its biggest ever score.” [03:15]
• France (National Rally): Once a fringe, extremist party, it is now France’s most popular, with Jordan Bardella the frontrunner for the 2027 presidential election. The dramatic rise worries some and delights others. Sophie Petter: “A remarkable turnaround for a party that…was an extremist anti-Semitic pariah movement. And it's now the most popular party in France.” [03:30]
• Britain (Reform UK): Transformed from fringe status to Britain's most popular party (29% in polls); could govern with the Conservatives if elections were held immediately. Matthew Hullhouse: “Reform UK would have a three in five chance of winning a governing majority in the Commons in concert with a rump Conservative party.” [04:07]

2. Ideological Similarities and Differences Across Movements

[04:41-07:48]

• Shared Features:

  • Powerful anti-immigration stances with xenophobic undertones.
  • Skepticism or hostility towards environmental policies.
  • Elite-bashing rhetoric, restorationist “country-first” themes (comparable to American MAGA).
  • Euroscepticism, especially in the UK and Germany. Sophie Petter: “The most fundamental thing is an anti-immigration policy…infused with a xenophobic vision.” [04:56]

• Specific Parallels:

  • Farage (Reform UK) developed political identity within the European Parliament, collaborating with other right-wing European movements.
  • Policy focus on mass deportations, opposition to foreign aid, and a message of national restoration.

• Important Differences:

  • UK’s Reform and France’s National Rally have moderated as they approach power.
  • Germany’s AfD is radicalizing further, with deepening ties to extremist groups (Identitarian Movement). Tom Nuttall: “With the AfD, if anything, you're seeing the opposite happening. The party's actually growing more radical…” [06:34]

3. Centrist and Mainstream Parties' Responses

[07:48-14:54]

• Germany: Maintenance of a “firewall” (cordon sanitaire) – no collaboration with AfD at any level. Tom Nuttall: “No mainstream party will work with the AfD in government… completely ruled out.” [07:53]

• France: The firewall is collapsing as the National Rally eclipses the Republicans (center-right), blurring lines of acceptability. Sophie Petter: “It’s about whether or not it’s the populist right…that will absorb all others in that space.” [08:59]

• Britain: No tradition of exclusion; Tories often tried to outflank Reform on issues. However, Labour’s Keir Starmer has recently shifted strategies—framing Farage as a civilizational threat and rallying the left. Matthew Hullhouse: “He’s really been talking up the civilizational…threat as he sees it, that Farage poses…” [09:57]

• Cross-country Theme:
  Efforts to isolate or outbid populists have not slowed their rise and may further radicalize them, or conversely, legitimize their core claims when the mainstream adopts their ideas.

4. The Dilemma of Engagement Versus Containment

[11:07-14:54]

• In Germany, maintaining the firewall denies AfD power but increases polarization and the party’s radicalization—yet breaking the firewall could split the mainstream right.
• In Britain, Conservative objections to a pact with Reform UK are mostly about party interests, not morality or fundamental values. Many of Farage’s once-radical ideas (Brexit, ECHR opposition) have been absorbed into mainstream conservatism. Matthew Hullhouse: “The legacy of 15 years of trying to contain Farage has made the concept of partying [i.e., the party] more Faragist.” [13:01]
• In France, both ostracizing and legitimizing the National Rally have led to increased support—central parties are caught in a near-impossible bind. Sophie Petter: “If you treat these parties as more respectable, the vote also goes up. So you're in a situation where, you know, you almost can't win…” [14:17]

5. American MAGA Influence and Transatlantic Ties

[14:54-18:24]

• France: National Rally distances itself from explicit “Trumpism,” aware of Trump’s unpopularity in France, but benefits from America’s support for “patriotic parties.” Sophie Petter: “Jordan Bardello…was quite cautious [about Trump]. He did not say that he did.” [15:10]
• Britain: Farage uses Trump links selectively; campaign style increasingly emulates Trump rallies and spectacle. Matthew Hullhouse: “He draws a lot of inspiration from Trump.” [16:17]
• Germany: AfD is embracing MAGA-inspired rhetoric more explicitly, viewing a sympathetic US administration as a crucial backstop, especially with party-banning efforts looming in Germany. AfD opposes German/European support for Ukraine. Tom Nuttall: “AfD has dialed this stuff up to 10…Regular delegations of AFD senior figures, MPs going over to Washington...” [17:11]

6. The Year Ahead: 2026 and Beyond

[18:24-20:33]

• Britain: Upcoming devolved and local elections in 2026 will indicate Reform UK’s staying power and may further erode Conservative fortunes. Risks a historic upheaval of the right. Matthew Hullhouse: “…if reform do well, the question is, do people who are still loyal to the Conservative Party conclude that reform is a stronger, more viable party of the right…?” [18:31]

• Germany: Five state elections in 2026 (especially in the east) could see AfD win outright, breaking remaining barriers to power. Watch for shifts if migration falls down voters’ priority list.

  Tom Nuttall: “If that were to happen…they will be able to govern on their own.” [19:11]

• France: The center has 18 months to unite and create a credible alternative, or the National Rally could take the presidency in 2027. Sophie Petter: “…Cannot be excluded at this point that the populist right will take power. So that is a big challenge…” [20:00]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jason Palmer [02:08]: “It’s dramatic visions all round…Britain as we know it would cease to exist if Reform were to win the next election.”
• Tom Nuttall [06:34]: “Many of [the AfD]…look forward to working with [Farage] as British Prime Minister.”
• Sophie Petter [14:17]: “If you treat these parties as more respectable, the vote also goes up…For the centrists, it’s really very difficult.”
• Matthew Hullhouse [13:01]: “The legacy of 15 years of trying to contain Farage has made the concept of partying more Faragist.”
• Tom Nuttall [19:11]: “If that were to happen, you can forget about firewalls and cordon sanitaire, because they would have burnt it down.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Populist surge overview: 01:47-04:41
• Ideological similarities/differences: 04:41-07:48
• Mainstream party dilemmas: 07:48-14:54
• MAGA transatlantic influence: 14:54-18:24
• Predictions for 2026: 18:24-20:33

Tone & Style

The discussion is analytical, clear-eyed, and occasionally laced with wry humor, matching The Economist’s trademark tone. Broader themes are balanced with granular country-specific detail, framing Europe's populist right as both a “symptom and a shaper” of a political era where centrist parties struggle to recalibrate their strategies and relevancy.

Conclusion

This episode offers a vivid, multi-country perspective on how Europe’s populist right is not just rising but rapidly redrawing party systems, electoral calculations, and the core questions of governance. With the firewall strategies unraveling and mainstream parties caught between losing voters and sacrificing principle, 2026 is poised as a potentially historic year for politics across Germany, France, and the UK. If current trends hold, European political norms could face their greatest upheaval in generations.