Podcast Summary: "Shah Caller: Iran’s Protests Are Different This Time"

The Economist Podcasts – The Intelligence
Date: January 9, 2026
Host: Jason Palmer, Rosie Blore
Main Contributor: Greg Karlstrom (Middle East Correspondent)

Overview

This episode explores the recent wave of protests sweeping Iran, analyzing how they differ from previous uprisings—especially those in 2022. Economist correspondent Greg Karlstrom discusses the economic roots of this unrest, shifting demographics among protestors, and the regime’s increasingly uncertain response. The episode also touches on the symbolic re-emergence of monarchist slogans and what that could mean for the regime, as well as outside pressures and the specter of American intervention.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What Sparked the Current Protests?

[03:07] Greg Karlstrom:

• The unrest began December 28, triggered by electronics vendors in Tehran striking against currency collapse.
• Protests quickly expanded to cities nationwide despite a government internet shutdown.
• Notable protest chants: “Death to the Ayatollah” and “Long live the Shah.”

Quote:

“These are not the biggest protests we’ve seen in Iran, but they do seem like the largest ones since 2022. And they come at a moment when the Iranian regime looks more fragile than ever.”
—Greg Karlstrom [03:27]

2. How Are These Protests Different From 2022?

[04:30] Greg Karlstrom:

• 2022 protests followed the death of Mahsa Amini after her arrest for violating dress codes. Those were dominated by women, largely middle class, focusing on social issues.
• Current protests are predominantly driven by economic hardship and led by jobless young men—a group previously more inclined to support the regime.
• The government’s repressive response is the same (intimidation, arrests, shutting off the internet), but this time, they can’t offer even “tactical concessions” like in 2022.

Quote:

“The state doesn’t have any quick fixes for Iran’s economic problem. And so it’s really in a bind right now.”
—Greg Karlstrom [05:51]

3. The Economic Crisis Fueling the Unrest

[06:25] Greg Karlstrom:

• The Iranian rial lost almost 50% of its value in a year, reaching an all-time low.
• Inflation above 40%—and over 70% for food.
• Blames are placed on US sanctions, but significant problems stem from domestic corruption and an economic model dominated by the military and religious foundations.

Quote:

“It’s not just an issue of sanctions or the west, as Iran’s leaders like to say. It’s also a problem of how they’ve set up the country’s economy.”
—Greg Karlstrom [07:07]

4. The Regime’s Response: Cash Transfers and Political Paralysis

[07:33] Greg Karlstrom:

• The government ended an exchange-rate subsidy for importers and replaced it with direct cash transfers (10 million rials/month, or about $7–8).
• The measure is largely symbolic, doing little to address real economic pain and fueling further inflation.
• Even the president has said he’s powerless—“I don’t call the shots.”

5. The Supreme Leader and Regime Stability

[08:59] Jason Palmer & Greg Karlstrom:

• Protest slogans now directly attack Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and call for a return to monarchy, invoking “the Shah.”
• Reza Pahlavi, the 65-year-old son of the last Shah, has called for protest action from within Iran for the first time—some respond out of support, others just to antagonize the regime.

Quote:

“Chanting his name is a way to poke a finger in the eye of the regime and upset them.”
—Greg Karlstrom [09:24]

• Even within regime circles, talk has started about removing Khamenei to save the system—a conversation intensified after the US operation dethroned Venezuela’s Maduro.

6. Impact of U.S. Actions and External Factors

[11:22] Jason Palmer & Greg Karlstrom:

• While Iranian protesters aren’t demonstrating with expectations of direct American intervention, US threats and actions do influence regime calculations.
• Trump has made veiled threats should Iran kill protestors; this possibility drives regime anxiety about maintaining control, maybe even accelerating internal “palace coup” discussions.

Quote:

“For the regime, what America will or will not do does matter… The specter of American involvement… is sharpening these debates within the regime.”
—Greg Karlstrom [12:30]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the mood of protesters:

  “They are doing it because after half a century of misrule by the Islamic Republic, they’re fed up and they feel like they have nothing left to lose.”
  —Greg Karlstrom [11:41]

• On regime adaptability:

  “The challenge for the regime now is that there’s no easy way out—no quick win or temporary pacification.”
  —Paraphrase of Greg’s key point

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:07 – Summary of protest origins and scale
• 04:30 – Key differences between current and 2022 protests
• 06:19 – Breakdown of Iran’s economic collapse
• 07:33 – Regime subsidy reform and its ineffectiveness
• 09:14 – Focus on Khamenei in protest slogans; Pahlavi’s role
• 10:24 – Internal regime discussions on leadership change
• 11:36 – Influence and limitations of US intervention

Conclusion

This episode offers sharp insight into why Iran’s 2026 protests are shaking the regime to its core. Unlike past uprisings focused on social issues and led by the middle class, this wave is driven by economic despair among the traditionally regime-supportive young men, leaving authorities with no easy concessions to offer. The opposition’s invocation of the monarchy adds complexity and symbolism, while the ever-present specter of US intervention amplifies nerves at the top. Ultimately, these protests expose not only the fragility of the Iranian political system, but also how quickly internal crises can escalate when economic survival is at stake.