Economist Podcasts – "Shipping forecast: will America’s blockade work?"

Date: April 14, 2026
Hosts: Jason Palmer, Rosie Blore
Main Guest: Shashank Joshi, Defense Editor

Episode Overview

This episode of The Intelligence dives deep into escalating tensions in the Gulf region, focusing on America's controversial new naval blockade targeting Iranian shipping. Defense Editor Shashank Joshi explains the strategic rationale behind the move, the potential for escalation, and its likely impact on global energy markets and diplomatic relations. Secondary segments examine Burkina Faso's deadly counter-jihadist campaign and the rising popularity (and history) of sparkling water.

America’s Blockade of Iranian Shipping

Background (02:44–03:05)

• After failed U.S.–Iran talks, America has adopted a hardline strategy: a maritime blockade of ships using Iranian ports and coastal waters.
• Unconventional step: It's America, not Iran, disrupting shipping at the Strait of Hormuz, countering months-old expectations.

"Most observers expected Iran would choke off shipping… very few people expected that less than two months later, Donald Trump would essentially do the same thing himself."
— Shashank Joshi (02:44)

The Rationale Behind the Blockade (03:05–04:10)

• U.S. hopes economic strangulation will succeed where military force failed—particularly, pushing Iran to the negotiating table over its nuclear program.
• The plan: If Iran threatens free passage, America will reciprocate by blocking Iranian shipping.
• Military precedent: U.S. has successfully seized tankers before (e.g., Venezuelan-linked ships).
• Political and economic aims are far more complex.

"The aim is probably to sever Iran’s economic lifeline and make the regime plunge into some sort of economic crisis...But I think, in practice, it’s going to be a lot harder than that."
— Shashank Joshi (03:43)

How the Blockade Works (04:10–06:09)

• The U.S. Central Command announced a blockade on any vessel originating from Iranian ports/coastal waters, regardless of flag—even Chinese or allied ships.
• Blockade rules require impartial application under international law.
• The main strategy is enforcement in the relatively safer Gulf of Oman, not within the risky chokepoint of Hormuz.
• Immediate test case: A "falsely flagged" Chinese tanker was already attempting passage as of recording.
• Iran's resilience: Oil export volumes are currently low, and Iran has survival mechanisms (printing money, offshore storage, alternative credit lines).

"My concern is this will take far longer to bring Iran to its knees than I think Donald Trump can stomach."
— Shashank Joshi (05:55)

Impact on Energy Markets (06:09–07:13)

• The blockade alone doesn't cripple oil supplies, but Iran will likely respond by once again obstructing neutral shipping ("if you blockade our ships, we'll go back to blockading all of yours").
• Likely consequences:
  • Significant supply trapped in the Gulf—importers forced to draw down already-low stocks.
  • Projected soaring prices: Brent crude could hit $150/barrel by end of April.
  • Further tightening if Iranian strikes on facilities resume or the Houthis in Yemen (allied to Iran) join in.

"That’s a big problem… I think that will probably push Brent crude futures to $150 a barrel by the end of April."
— Shashank Joshi (06:41)

Wider Shipping Implications (07:13–08:21)

• Not limited to Iranian ships—affects vessels from China, France, Turkey, Pakistan, etc.
• Some countries (e.g., India) say they’re not paying Iran’s shipping toll—but Pentagon rules still include them.
• Complex diplomatic fallout: U.S. risks alienating allies and compounding the global energy crisis.

"So you have the prospect of America imposing a blockade that will affect not just adversaries, but many of its allies, partners, and friends...that’s going to be diplomatically very difficult."
— Shashank Joshi (08:07)

Strategic Outcome: Dangerous Gamble or Masterstroke? (08:21–09:57)

• Success scenario: Iran's currency collapses, economy tanks, regime is forced back to negotiations even offering on key nuclear concessions.
• But: Joshi is skeptical—Iran believes it survived the initial conflict; sees Trump as weak, facing midterms and high U.S. gas prices.
• Iran likely believes it can outlast both the blockade and U.S. political will.

"In those circumstances, I reckon Iran thinks it can outlast an American blockade."
— Shashank Joshi (09:44)

Other Episode Segments

Burkina Faso’s Brutal Anti-Jihadist Campaign (12:32–18:04)

• Reporter: Tom Gardner, Africa Correspondent
• President Ibrahim Traore’s “total war” strategy has led to widespread war crimes, with volunteer militias engaged in ethnic cleansing, primarily targeting the Fulani minority.
• Official army and volunteer forces outnumber the regular military; violence is partially driven by ethnic vendettas.
• The campaign is growing the very jihadist threat it's meant to fight—jihadist groups now control vast territory and act like de facto states.
• Traore resists Western/NGO criticism, remaining popular in regions untouched by violence.

"Responding to terrorism with terrorism in effect."
— Jason Palmer (13:48)

"There have been numerous atrocities between 2023 and 2025 which amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. The junta led by Traore also stands accused of ethnic cleansing."
— Tom Gardner (14:41)

The Rise (and History) of Sparkling Water (18:32–21:57)

• Reporter: John Fasman, Senior Culture Correspondent
• American sparkling water sales up 70% since 2019.
• Traces the invention (Priestley, Schweppe) and cultural history—from Manhattan’s Lower East Side “seltzer” to today’s wide array of choices (San Pellegrino, Topo Chico, local brands).
• Fasman’s personal favorite: Topo Chico, “the angriest bubbles in the world.”

"Consumers should cheer for the choice they have. I certainly am."
— John Fasman (21:55)

Notable Quotes

• "It’s a gamble, and I think a dangerous one that could compound the global energy crisis and lead to another round of escalation in this war."
  — Shashank Joshi (03:05)

• "If you blockade our ships, we'll go back to blockading all of yours."
  — Shashank Joshi (06:27)

Key Timestamps

• 01:29 — Episode overview and main topics introduced
• 02:44–09:57 — Deep-dive on America’s Iran shipping blockade (main segment)
• 12:32–18:04 — Burkina Faso counter-jihadist crackdown
• 18:32–21:57 — Sparkling water’s culture and history

Tone & Style

The episode consistently delivers sober, analytical reporting, blending global perspective, expert commentary, and narrative insight. Shashank Joshi’s analysis is especially clear-eyed and nuanced, warning of strategic overreach and unintended consequences.

In Summary:
America’s attempt to choke off Iran’s oil exports by blockading shipping is a risky, complex strategy with potentially severe fallout for the global economy and U.S. diplomacy. While it may exert pressure, Iran appears confident it can outlast both the blockade and U.S. political appetite for escalation. The episode also spotlights the grim costs of anti-terror operations in Africa and the effervescent world of sparkling water.