Economist Podcasts – "Stock options: how to hedge an AI bubble"

Date: February 13, 2026
Host: Rosie Bloor
Featured Correspondents: Josh Roberts, Piotr Zelewski, John Fasman

Episode Overview

This episode of The Intelligence unpacks three timely stories:

• The stock market’s nervousness around the massive investments in artificial intelligence (AI), exploring whether we might be in an AI-driven market bubble and what investors can do to hedge their bets.
• Turkey’s succession dilemma as President Erdoğan ages, examining his possible successors.
• The life and legacy of literary agent Georges Borchardt, who championed the works of Samuel Beckett and Elie Wiesel.

Segment 1: Hedging an AI Stock Bubble

Guest: Josh Roberts, Capital Markets Correspondent
Start: 03:04

Key Points

• Tech Giants' Colossal AI Bets

  • Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are planning to invest a combined $660 billion in AI in the next year.
  • Such sums have sparked market jitters, with fears that stock prices of these companies are being bid up far above their actual profits.

• Market Jitters: A Historical Perspective

  • Investors sense parallels to past tech booms (railways, canals, electricity, the internet), which often led to investment bubbles and notable crashes.
  • Josh Roberts (03:38):
    "There are lots of times throughout history where you've had a new technology emerge... And in all of those cases, the new technology actually did transform the world. But in the early stages... investors got overexcited... even when the new technology was really successful, a lot of investors lost an enormous amount of money."

• Investor Dilemmas: To Sell or Not to Sell

  • Professional investors may not be allowed to sell off stocks entirely due to fund mandates.
  • Ordinary investors who sell during market wobbles often miss out on subsequent gains, as seen during the dotcom boom.
  • Josh Roberts (05:11):
    "Even after share prices plunged... investors who had just held on... would still have made money. Those who had sold out early wouldn't."

• Classic Hedging Fails

  • Traditionally, bonds have balanced losses when stocks fall; however, this relationship broke down during the 2022 crash, when both stocks and bonds fell due to inflation fears.
  • Gold, the classic chaos hedge, has itself become volatile, with recent wild price swings making it a less reliable safe haven.
  • Josh Roberts (07:20):
    "When you see an asset that is supposed to be a hedge behaving like that, you might feel a little less confident that it's actually going to be a hedge."

• Alternative Hedging: Stocks Against Stocks

  • Ironically, the best-performing hedges in the dotcom bubble were other baskets of stocks—specifically, those with reliable dividends and low volatility.
  • Josh Roberts (08:01):
    "Some of the best [hedges] were select baskets of stocks... stocks that pay very high reliable dividends... stocks with low volatility."
  • There is no perfect protection; slow, steady, long-term investing remains the wisest strategy.

Memorable Quotes

• Josh Roberts (08:35):
  "The one safest investment strategy is buy and hold. The very worst thing you can do is sell your stocks during the depths of a crash when you actually lose your money. The best advice anyone can give is invest slowly, steadily throughout your career while you're saving and just hold on through the ups and downs."

Segment 2: Erdogan’s Succession Puzzle

Correspondent: Piotr Zelewski, Turkey Correspondent
Start: 10:24

Key Points

• Erdoğan’s Long Rule and Term Limits

  • Erdoğan has led Turkey since 2003 and has become autocratic as well as aged.
  • He is technically limited from running again in 2028 but is intensely motivated, as are his supporters, to seek ways around that.
  • Piotr Zelewski (11:00):
    "He has dismantled most checks on his power, but he has to contend with two things. One is elections, and the other is term limits."

• Possible Avenues for Staying or Leaving

  • Constitutional changes or snap elections are being considered as ways for Erdoğan to stay in power.
  • Constitutional change is unlikely due to lack of parliamentary majority to avoid a referendum, but a snap election called by parliament may provide a legal route.

• If Erdoğan Steps Aside: Succession Contenders

  • Four main figures: his son-in-law, a former interior minister, current foreign minister Hakan Fidan, and his youngest son Bilal Erdoğan.
  • A December poll put Hakan Fidan as most popular among potential successors; Bilal Erdoğan had only about 14% support.
  • Piotr Zelewski (12:58):
    "Four people are set to be in contention... Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan... Bilal Erdoğan came in at third place..."

• The Bilal Factor

  • Bilal has no public office but has grown more prominent in politics and media, stoking speculation of a dynastic move.
  • Focus groups suggest AKP voters resist dynastic succession, and Bilal lacks his father’s democratic legitimacy.
  • Piotr Zelewski (14:08):
    "The paradox of Turkey is that Erdoğan is an autocrat, but he does enjoy genuine support among the party base... Bilal does not have that."

• Succession Odds and Party Survival

  • Even Erdoğan may struggle in the next elections due to economic downturns; any successor would face higher odds, especially one with his last name.
  • The AKP may struggle to survive a transition.
  • Piotr Zelewski (15:56):
    "Turkey's democracy is in very bad shape. But an Erdoğan dynasty is far from assured."

Segment 3: Remembering Georges Borchardt

Correspondent: John Fasman, Senior Culture Correspondent
Start: 17:25

Key Points

• A Life Shaped by War and Literature

  • Borchardt, a Jewish émigré from Berlin via Paris, survived WWII by fleeing the Nazis and later emigrated to New York.
  • He entered publishing almost by accident, initially working menial jobs for literary agent Marion Saunders.

• Championing Literary Giants

  • In 1953, he discovered Samuel Beckett—then unpublished in America—and sold Waiting for Godot and others for $1,000; Beckett later won the Nobel.
  • He also relentlessly promoted Elie Wiesel’s Night, finally selling American rights for a mere $250. Wiesel went on to win the Nobel for Peace.
  • John Fasman (18:46):
    "[He] championed another future Nobel laureate, a Romanian Jewish journalist... Georges said that he felt more strongly about this book than any other I have ever sent you. Still, 15 of them rejected [it]..."

• His Legacy as an Agent

  • Borchardt and his wife started their own agency in 1967, focusing on highbrow, prizewinning talent over commercial bestsellers.
  • Known for wry humor, fierce negotiating, and old-world courtesy.
  • John Fasman (22:25):
    "He had enough stories to fill a memoir, but he demurred. He was a reader to the end and preferred helping writers to being one."

• Philosophy of Literature

  • Asked what he looked for in a manuscript:
    "I just want to fall in love with it. You don't know until you've found it, but when you find it, you know." (John Fasman, 22:50)

Notable Quotes and Moments

• On AI Investment Jitters:
  "There's this worry that something similar is happening again – that AI might be this transformative technology, but share prices have been bid up out of all proportion with underlying profits."
  — Josh Roberts (04:04)

• On Long-Term Investing:
  "The one safest investment strategy is buy and hold."
  — Josh Roberts (08:35)

• On Turkish Politics:
  "Turkey's democracy is in very bad shape. But an Erdoğan dynasty is far from assured."
  — Piotr Zelewski (15:56)

• On Literary Discovery:
  "I just want to fall in love with it. You don't know until you've found it, but when you find it, you know."
  — Georges Borchardt, as recalled by John Fasman (22:50)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• AI Bubble and Stock Market Hedging (03:04 – 09:09)
• Turkey’s Succession Dilemma (10:24 – 17:07)
• Georges Borchardt’s Life and Career (17:25 – 23:24)

The Economist Podcast delivers a measured, insightful take on fast-moving financial currents, shifting global politics, and the lasting impact of literary visionaries—all with clarity and depth.