Economist Podcasts – "Strike Fear: Iran’s Protests and Israel"

Date: January 12, 2026
Host: Jason (The Economist)
Key Guests: Anshel Pfeffer (Israel Correspondent), Carla Subidana (News Editor), Henry Tricks (US Technology Editor)
Main Interviewee (excerpted): Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister)

Episode Overview

This episode of The Intelligence explores the renewed protests in Iran, their violent suppression, and the complex ways these events shape Israel’s regional calculations, particularly in the wake of the recent Israel-Iran conflict and American responses under President Trump. In addition, the episode discusses how generative AI is transforming the job market for the class of 2026 in America, and the looming pension crises gripping Europe as an aging population strains fiscal and political resources.

Section 1: Iran’s Protests, Repression, and Israeli Concerns

Main segment: 01:17 – 13:16

Key Discussion Points & Insights

• Escalation and Suppression in Iran

  • Authorities in Iran are violently suppressing protests, with nearly 500 protesters reportedly killed; actual numbers are likely higher.
    • “Across the country, cities and towns, demonstrators are being mowed down, 490, according to a Washington based human rights group. That's almost certainly an undercount.” – Jason (01:50)
  • The current unrest is perceived as more significant than previous waves, especially given its connections to recent conflict with Israel.

• Israeli Perceptions and Fears

  • Israeli leadership is wary the protests could lead to Iranian regime attempts to deflect from internal instability through external aggression.
  • June’s brief but intense war between Israel and Iran broke certain psychological barriers, emboldening both Iranian protesters and Israeli officials regarding possible regime vulnerability.
    • “This may have in a way broken something of the barrier of fear that kept people from protesting against the regime.” – Anshel Pfeffer (04:30)
  • Israelis monitor not only protest hotspots but also military infrastructure for signs of missile preparation.

• Why Might Iran Strike Israel Now?

  • Deflection: War might distract from domestic woes or rally national unity.
  • Strategic Calculation: Fear Israel or America will strike first could prompt Iranian preemption.
  • Restoring Deterrence: Embarrassment over Israel’s success during June’s exchanges may provoke retaliation.
  • American Factor: President Trump’s threats increase regional tension. Retaliation against American allies (like Israel) is seen as a likely Iranian response to US attacks.
    • “These are all reasons why Israel is concerned that this could actually be the moment when Iran, despite the regime being very much embattled now at home, may try to take an opportunity and attack abroad.” – Anshel Pfeffer (06:45)

• Will Israel 'Finish the Job'?

  • While hawkish rhetoric has persisted, current Israeli priorities include replenishing missile defenses and not appearing overly aggressive.
  • Netanyahu displayed less bellicosity in the Economist interview versus his recent meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

Notable Interview Quotes

• Netanyahu on War and Regime Change:

  • “People ask me during the war, is your goal regime change? And I said, no, it's not. But it could be the consequence of the war if we were successful. And we were successful.” (Benjamin Netanyahu, 02:59)

• Netanyahu’s Measured Response to US Pressure:

  • When asked if American pressure for regime change was a good idea:

    • “I think there is pressure. Everybody wants to see that. But I said, I was asked about that and I said, I'll tell you one definite time when we would resume our military activities. If Iran attacks us, which they might, then there will be horrible consequences for Iran. That's definite. Everything else, I think we should see what is happening inside Iran.” (Benjamin Netanyahu, 09:02)

  • “Revolutions are best done from within.” (Netanyahu, 09:42)

  • Anshel Pfeffer interprets this as a rare case of Israel stepping back from overt threats, seeking to “lower the Israeli profile and for it not to be seen as if Israel is in any way interfering in the internal issues within Iran.” (09:48)

• Netanyahu’s Metaphor for Iran’s Military Program:

  • “It's akin to somebody who has horrible cancer, the attempt to build atomic weapons and the other is the attempt to build 20,000 ballistic missiles. So we had to take it out. But when you take out these lumps of cancer and certain types of lumps of cancer can reappear, if you don't take it out, you'll die.” (Benjamin Netanyahu, 10:32)

Israeli Opportunism and Strategic Calculus

• Immediate Concerns:
  • Law-and-order breakdown could risk Iranian missile and nuclear assets falling into dangerous hands or being used as bargaining chips.
  • Iran’s regional proxies may weaken as the regime turns inward—potential benefit for Israel.
    • “Iran... will have to focus much more now inwards... simply won't have the money, all the attention span to continue building and maintaining this network. And that suddenly... would be a major gain.” – Anshel Pfeffer (12:19)
• Long-Term Hopes:
  • Possibility for post-regime Iran to return as an Israeli ally, recalling pre-1979 close ties—though not imminent, this is viewed as a ‘desired result for Israel.’ (12:57)

Section 2: The “ChatGPT Generation” Hits the Labor Market

Segment: 14:39 – 21:19

Key Discussion Points & Insights

• First Fully AI-Native Class Graduates

  • The 2026 American university class is the first to have used generative AI like ChatGPT throughout their college education. Their impact on—and vulnerability to—the job market is a central question.
  • “America's class of 2026 will be the first members of the ChatGPT generation to graduate.” – Henry Tricks (15:16)

• Workplace Transformation

  • By end of 2026, up to 40% of workplace applications may be performed by AI agents, particularly threatening entry-level and junior roles.
  • “What we're likely to see in the short term is... the diamond structure, which now means... few people at the bottom, but you have a big rump of people in the middle.” – Henry Tricks (18:24)
  • Longer-term, firms may flip to an ‘hourglass’ model, with AI-native youth leapfrogging mid-career ‘laggards’ displaced by automation.

• Implications for New Grads

  • Double down on AI literacy and actively seek jobs where AI is less disruptive.
  • “Whatever option you choose as a graduate, you have to make the case to potential employers that it's really important to hire young talent, notwithstanding the rise of the agents.” – Henry Tricks (20:43)

Section 3: Europe’s Looming Pension Crisis

Segment: 21:49 – 27:47

Key Discussion Points & Insights

• Aging Demographics and Exploding Costs

  • European societies are aging fast; by 2070, only two working-age adults will support each person over 65.
  • In France, Spain, Italy (“unfunded” systems), pensioners enjoy long retirements and generous payouts covered by contemporary workers—an increasingly unsustainable arrangement.
  • “If there's a shrinking pool of contributors, pension generosity must inevitably fall.” – Carla Subidana (23:18)

• Comparing European Responses

  • Northern countries (Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland) with funded schemes are better prepared.
  • Denmark’s bold reforms include hiking retirement age to 70 by 2040.

• Political Gridlock

  • Raising retirement ages or reducing benefits is deeply unpopular; reforms have triggered mass protests and government crises (e.g., in France 2023-24).
  • “Governments are very scared of angering pensioners as they're a very important electoral force.” – Carla Subidana (26:30)

• Fiscal Consequences

  • Nations like France, Belgium, Norway, and Austria will devote up to 30% of GDP to aging-related costs by 2045; only countries with substantial sovereign wealth (e.g., Norway) can afford this without crisis.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Revolutions are best done from within.” – Benjamin Netanyahu (09:42)
• “If Iran attacks us, which they might, then there will be horrible consequences for Iran. That’s definite. Everything else, I think we should see what is happening inside Iran.” – Benjamin Netanyahu (09:11)
• "America's class of 2026 will be the first members of the ChatGPT generation to graduate." – Henry Tricks (15:16)
• “If there's a shrinking pool of contributors, pension generosity must inevitably fall.” – Carla Subidana (23:18)
• “Governments are very scared of angering pensioners as they're a very important electoral force.” – Carla Subidana (26:30)

Useful Timestamps

• Iran & Israel Segment Start: 01:17
• Netanyahu Interview Clip: 02:59
• Israeli Fears Explained: 04:12
• Israel’s Military Calculus & US Factor: 05:33 – 07:43
• Netanyahu’s Current Stance: 08:24 – 10:49
• Long-term Regional Prospects: 12:00
• AI and Job Market Segment Start: 14:39
• Pension Crisis Segment Start: 21:49

Tone & Style

The episode maintains The Economist’s typical measured, analytical tone—skeptical, deeply sourced, occasionally laced with wry understatement. The guests and interviewers provide factual context and cautious predictions rather than speculation, always linking storylines to their broader geopolitical or economic implications.

For more in-depth analysis and interviews, see The Economist’s website and digital app.