Economist Podcasts – The Intelligence (Feb 2, 2026)

Episode: Survival Modi: Indian PM’s fortunes revive

1. Episode Overview

This episode of The Intelligence explores the revival of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s fortunes following what many thought would be a downturn after the 2024 general election. With fresh momentum after securing landmark policy wins—most notably a sweeping EU-India free trade deal—Modi is once again the dominant force in Indian politics, despite having lost his outright majority. The episode analyzes how Modi has adapted, the stability of his coalition, shifts in domestic policy priorities, and the broader political context. Secondary stories include a deep dive into the realities of childhood genius versus late-blooming high achievers, and the role of panda diplomacy amid strained China-Japan relations.

2. Key Discussion Points & Insights

A. Modi’s Political Comeback and Current Standing

Segment Start: 02:31

• EU-India Free Trade Deal (02:31-02:56):

  • This trade deal is presented as India’s “largest ever,” marking a major political win for Modi.
  • European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen called it “the mother of all deals,” and boasted: “We are creating a market of 2 billion people.” (Moeka Iida at 02:47)

• Modi’s Trajectory and Ambitions (03:03-03:23):

  • Modi took office alongside world leaders like Obama and Merkel, and aims to become India’s longest-serving PM.
  • At age 78 in 2029, he is expected to seek yet another term. “He’s actually got his eye on being the longest-serving Indian Prime Minister of all time.” (Tom Sasse, 03:13)

• From 2024’s Setback to Renewed Dominance (03:26-04:32):

  • Despite losing his majority in 2024, the BJP’s vote share dropped by less than a percentage point.
  • Opposition disarray, ongoing BJP dominance.
  • Modi’s strategic response: Tackling voter concerns, especially inflation; opposition has failed to unite or mount a coherent critique.

• Major Policy Moves Since the Election (04:37-05:33):

  • A wave of state election wins, especially in Bihar, have energized Modi.
  • Reforms: Tax simplification, overhaul of labor laws, more trade deals (notably with the EU), deregulation via the budget.
  • “What we’ve seen is as he’s come under more pressure from abroad, he’s started to focus more on strengthening India’s economy.” (Tom Sasse, 05:31)

B. Hindu Nationalism & Domestic Policy Adjustments

Segment Start: 05:33

• Shift in Focus from Divisive Policies to Economy (05:43-06:37):
  • Modi still “resort[s] to pretty divisive, shrill language on the campaign trail.”
  • Less drive to stoke religious tensions; rather, the focus is economic reform.
  • Trade realities and pressure from Trump-era tariffs have convinced BJP hardliners of the necessity of economic liberalization.
  • “It’s actually the hand of Donald Trump helping… this kind of economic liberalization… is actually necessary to make India stronger in a more hostile world.” (Tom Sasse, 06:20)

C. Modi’s Coalition: Surprising Stability

Segment Start: 06:37

• Collaboration with Regional Parties (06:44-07:35):
  • Two new regional parties have been welcomed into the coalition, happy with increased funding and patronage.
  • Some controversial BJP objectives (like a uniform civil code) curtailed by coalition partners.
  • The opposition, in contrast, appears “more divided than the government.”
  • “It’s the opposition that looks more divided… many regional parties question the role of India’s Congress Party and its leader, Rahul Gandhi.” (Tom Sasse, 07:02)

D. Public Support and Potential Pitfalls

Segment Start: 07:35

• Remarkable Popularity & Durable Leadership (07:42-08:25):
  • Modi’s approval stands at 70% after almost 12 years in office.
  • Cult-like status: “You’ll hear people describe him as a saint… he’s got this incredible public image, almost like a personality cult.” (Tom Sasse, 08:01)
  • Threats remain: youth unemployment, risk of government overconfidence and complacency. But “right now, you definitely wouldn’t bet against him.” (08:23)

3. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Modi’s Longevity:

  • “I’ve just recently moved to India from the UK, where some of our Prime Ministers don’t even last 50 days. And with Narendra Modi, India’s got a leader who’s been in office almost 12 years, actually, and still 70% of Indians approve of him.” (Tom Sasse, 07:42)

• On Modi’s Coalition:

  • “They’ve been pretty happy to offer their loyalty in exchange for patronage… in some areas, they’ve actually curbed some of the BJP’s instincts.” (Tom Sasse, 06:49)

• On Economic Realignment:

  • “Because what Donald Trump’s tariffs on India have done is convince certain people within Mr. Modi’s movement that this kind of economic liberalization… is actually necessary to make India stronger in a more hostile world.” (Tom Sasse, 06:20)

4. Important Timestamps

• 02:31: Start of discussion on India-EU free trade deal and Modi’s revival.
• 03:03: Modi’s long-term ambitions and the context of 2024’s election result.
• 04:37: Modi’s reforms and measures taken post-2024.
• 05:43: Hindu nationalist agenda and shift toward economic focus.
• 06:44: Coalition management and opposition weakness.
• 07:42: Modi’s popular image and leadership durability.

5. Tone & Style

The episode maintains The Economist’s signature analytical, balanced, and slightly wry tone—mixing dry wit with clear-eyed analysis and a global perspective. Contributors speak concisely, using memorable comparisons (“Prime Ministers don’t even last 50 days in the UK…") and offer clear attributions for their insights and observations. There’s a consistent effort to contextualize the Indian political story within both domestic dynamics and international trends.

Episode Recap for Non-Listeners

If you haven’t listened:
This episode insightfully charts Narendra Modi’s unexpected return to political strength in India, highlighting how his adaptability, a strong (if newly plural) coalition, and bold economic policy shifts have cemented his dominance after a near-miss in 2024. While his more contentious cultural policies have been dialed back, economic pragmatism—partly forced by external pressures—has taken center stage. Despite familiar risks, Modi’s broad popularity and political savvy make him, for now, seemingly unstoppable. The discussion provides a nuanced look at India’s complex, ever-shifting political landscape and the global forces shaping its future.