Podcast Summary

Economist Podcasts – The Intelligence

Episode: The Robin Hood state: taxes are getting more progressive
Date: February 18, 2026
Host(s): Rosie Blore, Jason Palmer
Guests: Callum Williams (Senior Economics Writer), others

Overview

This episode explores whether the world’s tax systems are actually becoming more progressive, despite rising pre-tax inequality and common perceptions that the richest escape taxation. The conversation unpacks new data, policy shifts, and the reality behind “Robin Hood” redistribution in welfare states. Subsequent segments cover the Colombian mercenary phenomenon and the state of the Spanish language in America, but this summary focuses on the main feature: the regression and impact of progressive taxation globally.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The “Robin Hood State”: Modern Redistribution

• Introduction & Framing

  • Nearly everyone agrees income inequality is negative, yet few like taxes. States must balance equity and incentive; progressive taxation is designed to redistribute from rich to poor—a function often stigmatized as “the welfare state.”
  • Jason Palmer (02:11): “In an era when the richest of the rich have an even greater share of wealth than back in the robber baron days, you might think the welfare balancing act is out of balance. But…tax systems are getting more progressive, not less.”

• Empirical Evidence of Progressivity

  • Callum Williams (03:00): “Across the world, the welfare state has turned into what you might call a Robin Hood state. There is more redistribution than ever from the rich to the poor… In many cases, the increase in redistribution outweighs the rise in inequality.”
  • Compared to the 1960s, the U.S. now redistributes twice as much from rich to poor.
  • Germany, Japan, Canada, and Britain have also increased redistribution compared to previous decades.
  • Globally, 70% of countries in 2026 have more progressive welfare states than in 1990; the few that’ve regressed are either dysfunctional or were already exceptionally progressive.
  • Callum Williams (03:30): "If you look globally, roughly 7 out of 10 countries today have more progressive welfare states than they did in 1990.”

• Shift Across Jurisdictions and Over Time

  • The U.S. has seen little change in post-tax inequality since the 1970s/80s, but other countries (e.g., UK, France, Japan) have seen the richest 1% do worse and the bottom 50% do better in real terms since 2000.
  • Historically, high marginal rates (1950s–1970s) often failed to tax the rich, due to loopholes and generous expense account perks.
  • Callum Williams (05:55): “Back then the rich paid a lot less tax than they do today, and the poor paid a lot more tax than they do today.”

• Why the Change? Policy vs. Enforcement

  • The biggest factor is governments closing tax loopholes, rather than simply raising rates.
  • Tightening tax enforcement has made it harder for the wealthy to evade taxes.
  • Some recent policy moves (especially in Europe) have also raised top-line rates.
  • Callum Williams (06:30): “The clamping down on tax avoidance is definitely a big part of the story.”

• Counter-Narrative: Rich Still Avoiding Tax?

  • Media stories highlight billionaires paying little or no tax, but the issue is complex.
  • Ultra-rich still use legal tactics (corporate profits, asset borrowing), but hard data is scarce.
  • Callum Williams (07:04): “The evidence, I would say, is mixed. It’s actually really hard to know exactly how the super-super-rich are doing.”

• Impact on Lower Incomes

  • A “simpler” story: Middle and lower income individuals now pay much less tax and receive more state benefits than in previous generations.
  • Welfare/benefit transfers have grown substantially.

• Is It Good Policy? Sustainability and Efficiency

  • There’s always a tradeoff between equality and efficiency.
  • Some evidence (e.g., with California’s proposed billionaire tax, UK tax increases) shows wealthy people move assets or residence, posing risk to the local economy.
  • But dire predictions about mass exodus or shrinking incentive effects largely haven’t materialized.
  • Callum Williams (08:28): “The sort of behavioral impacts that a few economists might have predicted from putting super high taxes on the rich have not really come to pass.”
  • Momentum globally is for even higher taxes on the wealthy.
  • Callum Williams (08:55): “I would say the direction of travel on balance is towards even higher taxes on the rich rather than lighter ones.”

• The Future of the Welfare State

  • As pre-tax inequality rises, post-tax redistribution increases in response.
  • For now, post-tax inequality in many countries is no higher than in the 1990s, with the “Robin Hood” trend likely to grow.
  • Callum Williams (10:02): “If pre tax inequality rises or continues to rise…then… the welfare state will become ever more Robin Hoodie and the rich will face ever higher marginal tax rates.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jason Palmer (02:11):
  “In an era when the richest of the rich have an even greater share of wealth than back in the robber baron days, you might think the welfare balancing act is out of balance. But…tax systems are getting more progressive, not less.”

• Callum Williams (03:00):
  “Across the world, the welfare state has turned into what you might call a Robin Hood state. There is more redistribution than ever from the rich to the poor…”

• Callum Williams (03:30):
  “If you look globally, roughly 7 out of 10 countries today have more progressive welfare states than they did in 1990.”

• Callum Williams (05:55):
  “Back then the rich paid a lot less tax than they do today, and the poor paid a lot more tax than they do today.”

• Callum Williams (06:30):
  “The clamping down on tax avoidance is definitely a big part of the story.”

• Callum Williams (08:28):
  “The sort of behavioral impacts that a few economists might have predicted from putting super high taxes on the rich have not really come to pass.”

• Callum Williams (10:02):
  “If pre tax inequality rises or continues to rise…then… the welfare state will become ever more Robin Hoodie and the rich will face ever higher marginal tax rates.”

Important Timestamps

• 01:28–02:59 — Framing the rise of progressive tax systems and balancing inequality
• 03:00–04:40 — Presenting global redistribution data and “Robin Hood state” concept
• 04:50–06:20 — Cross-country differences; historical vs. current tax effectiveness
• 06:20–07:35 — The role of closing loopholes, high-profile billionaire tax avoidance
• 07:44–08:12 — Impact on low/mid incomes: lower tax, greater welfare transfers
• 08:12–09:53 — Policy assessment: efficiency vs. equality, is it sustainable?
• 10:02–10:18 — The future: even more progressive systems as inequality persists

Tone and Language

The conversation maintains a measured, data-driven, and explanatory tone—typical of The Economist—occasionally laced with wit (“Robin Hood state,” “Don Draper or Roger Sterling on the expense account”). Both hosts and Callum Williams speak plainly and avoid jargon, making complex policy accessible.

Takeaway

Despite enduring concerns over inequality and headlines about untaxed billionaires, the trajectory in most developed economies is clear: tax systems have grown more progressive, loopholes have been tightened, and redistribution policies have deepened. For the foreseeable future, as inequality rises, the “Robin Hood” state is poised to play an expanding role, redistributing more from the rich to the poor.