Kia ora.

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news of a changing of the guard. Countries are moving away from US Treasuries as a core reserve asset, replacing it with gold. At the same time, crypto values including for bitcoin, seem to be fading fast.

But first up today, there was a full dairy auction overnight, one that brought slightly lower overall prices, with the USD index falling -0.6% mainly on -3% lower SMP prices. Milk fat products like AMF. Butter and Cheddar all rose, offsetting the fall in powder prices. But the NZD has also strengthened, so the result in NZD terms was a -2.0% fall. A pull-back in demand from China is part of this story too.

In the US, they reported a surge in April job openings, their most in 18 months, notably in California and other western states. It is a services related thing, with manufacturing jobs not really participating.

Meanwhile, the US RCM/TIPP economic sentiment survey fell slightly in June from may, but to its lowest in two years.

And the US Logistics Managers Index is showing the full impacts of the current supply-chain disruptions and stockpiling. It held in May at its highest since the pandemic stress period. It is increasing at an increasing rate for inventory costs, warehousing capacity, and freight prices.

In China, we should note that it is wheat harvest season and that they expect a bumper result. At the same time, both Australian and US farmers are hesitating in their plans for wheat as high fertiliser and fuel costs threaten to make the prospects very uncertain.

In the EU and as expected, CPI inflation firmed up to 3.2% in May from 3.0% in April. Their core inflation rose as well. It seems to be only about rising fuel costs at present with the spread wider quite limited. Will the ECB hike its policy rate on June 11? Markets are betting 100% it will.

In Australia, they have slipped into their first trade deficit since 2017 in the March 2026 quarter. Exports of minerals fell (except for gold) while imports of data center equipment surged.

Globally, it is worth noting again that aluminium, zinc, copper and tin are all now either at record highs or at post-pandemic highs.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at US$4482/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at just over US$75/oz.

Interestingly, an ECB analysis released overnight has highlighted that after the run-up in the gold price, at the same time as the value of US Treasuries fell, gold was the largest single asset held for 'foreign reserves'. (see Chart 7)

Oil prices are up another +US$2 just under US$93.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now on US$96/bbl and up +US$1.50. Hormuz remains shut.

The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 59.2 USc, down -30 bps. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.7 which is down -20 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$67,464 and down a sharp -5.9% from this time yesterday and falling. Crypto funds are getting excess redemptions at present. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.5%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

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