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Kia ora.

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news there is a growing sense that the world is close to running on empty the longer the US-Iran flareup carries on.

But markets are ignoring that risk.

In the US producer prices fell -0.3% in June from May, marking the first decline since August 2025 and an unexpected dip. A sharp decline in energy prices is getting the credit and the fact that energy risks are still around is being ignored. From a year ago US PPI was up +5.5%. Without that, the core index rose +0.2%, to be +4.7% higher than a year ago.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped 10 points to +15.6 in July 2026, signaling a significant pickup in business activity across New York State. Price increases remained elevated and supply availability continued to worsen, they said. The region is in a stockpiling mode, still expecting more cost impacts from tariffs. (Although the New York Fed boss indicated they are looking through these likely impacts. However, not every Fed member is so sanguine.)

The July Fed Beige Book reported "modest to moderate" activity, with prices rising, with greater price sensitivity among consumers.

US crude stocks fell again although not be as much as was expected this week. Their strategic reserves show not letup in their draining track.

Across the northern border, the Bank of Canada left the target for its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% for a sixth consecutive decision in July 2026, and as expected. But they are seeing an improved economic outlook, however.

Across the Pacific and after impressing in April, Japanese machinery orders took an outsized tumble in May. down -12.4% from April and far worse than market forecasts for a -4.2% decline. It seems a broad-based weakness in business investment is setting in. Orders from manufacturers dropped -14.9% (vs 5.1% in April), while non-manufacturing orders fell -9.3% (vs 6.7%).

Chinese house prices are still falling but at a slower pace now as background support measures and market cleanup activity is putting a floor under this weakness. China’s new home prices across 70 cities fell -3.3% in June from a year ago, the mildest contraction since February. Shanghai was a standout with a +3.1% rise on that same basis, the only one with a measurable gain. Meanwhile, pre-owned home sales prices fell almost -6% on the same basis, and resale prices in Shanghai were negative too.

Retail sales in China were up +1.0% in June from a year ago, restrained in large part by shrinking retail sales of cars. Without that, sales would have been up +3.0%, just enough to be higher than their CPI inflation.

Industrial production in China rose +5.3% in June, its fastest pace in three months. Meanwhile, electricity production, which some think is a more realistic indicator of industrial activity because it is less susceptible to regional manipulation, rose +2.0% in June from the same month a year ago.

Through all of this, China said its economic activity was up +4.3% in June from Q2-2025. This was slower than the +5.0% in Q1-2026 and lower than the anticipated +4.5% that analysts had forecast. And it is its slowest since Q4-2022, and prior to that pandemic interruption, the slowest since 1990. The uneven results posted today won't reassure Beijing. Markets are thinking they will announce new stimulus soon.

China’s new bank lending came in at ¥1.61 tln in June, much more than the very weak ¥520 bln in May, but well below both year-ago levels and the expected ¥2 tln rise. Bank debt growth typically accelerates in June as banks step up lending activity to meet their quarterly targets, but loan demand remains subdued in 2026. This is adding to expectations of new stimulus measures from Beijing.

Yesterday's news of the arrival of bird flu in New Zealand likely shows that Australia's monitoring is likely very inadequate. They say Australia has 14 confirmed detections of H5 bird flu in wild birds. There are eight confirmed in Western Australia, five in South Australia and one in New South Wales. These are probably just the tip of the iceberg.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold has firmed slightly to US$4061/oz, little-changed from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$57.50/oz, down -US$1.50 from yesterday.

Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$79/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84.50/bbl. Hormuz transits have risen overnight There have been just 3 crude tankers and 15 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and 23 entering for new loads (9 dark) and most Iran-linked. More ships are crossing the Red Sea as well.

The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday at just under 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at just on 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.4 which is up +40 bps from this time yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,950 and up +0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-0.8%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

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