Kia ora.

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news that the Strait of Hormuz is still essentially shut with Trump's war on Iran far from resolved. The claims of 'ceasefires' merely propaganda exercises. Rolling skirmishes mean no shipping can get insurance, despite offers of safe passage. No-one respects anyone in a region where trust has evaporated.

Locally this week, the big data insights will come from the RBNZ's survey of inflation expectations on Wednesday, migration and travel activity data on Thursday, and a first look at inflation on Friday via Stats NZ's selected price tracking. We will also get the factory PMI on Friday.

In Australia, the key events will be the Federal Budget on Tuesday preceded by the Commbank profit result. There will also be consumer and business sentiment surveys out this week.

In the US, it will be all about their April CPI and PPI, along with updates for retail sales and industrial production

In India, they will also release CPI data. From Japan look out for household spending and PPI data too, and machine tool order updates.

In China, we are expecting April updates for CPI, PPI and new yuan loan data.

Over the weekend, China released its April export data and it was strong. While the US is turning inward, China is seizing the opportunities of their mistake. China’s exports rose +14% in April to a record high, picking up from March's +2.5% growth despite the disruptions from the Trump Gulf War. And China's imports surged +25% on the same year-on-year basis, a second straight monthly record and confirming resilient domestic demand. It is all very impressive.

China's exports to us were up only +3.8% from a year ago, but their imports from us were up +14.5.

China's exports to Australia were up +36% and their imports were up +20%, but that still left Australia with a very large surplus with China.

China's exports to the US were down -10.4%, and their imports down a similar -10.2%. They seem to have reduced their reliance on goods from the US to now just 9.8% of their total imports. No wonder US exports are faltering.

Over the weekend, the official data from the US showed they added +115,000 payroll jobs in April at the headline level, above expectations of a +62,000 gain and following a +185,000 increase in March. It was the first back-to-back monthly gain in nearly a year, and on an 'actual' payroll basis it was stronger again. Their jobless rate was stable at 4.3%.

But we should remember that all this data comes from an agency where Trump fired its head because he didn't like the results and this latest data is under the 'new management'. An independent professional review has confirmed there are distortions growing from this agency.

Employment rose in health care, logistics, and in the retail trade while it fell in the manufacturing and government sectors.

But if you include those not in payroll employment (self-employed etc.) there was no change on an 'actual' basis, a fall of -226,000 on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Their underclass is really struggling.

And you can see that in the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for May which fell again and to a record low. The fall from April wasn't large, coming in a scant 1.6 index points below April’s reading but it was comparable to the pandemic trough reached in June 2022. Year-ahead inflation expectations are for 4.5%, a touch less than in April.

In Canada, their employment fell -18,000 in April, but more people entered their job market, raising their jobless rate to 6.9%.

In India, banks are lending freely, with loan growth up +16% from a year ago. For all its growth narrative, India's stock exchanges are reporting serious 2026 declines, unlike most other global markets.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.36%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down -2 bps for the week.

The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at US$4714/oz, up +US$114 for the week. Silver is little-changed at just under US$80.50/oz, up +US$4.50 for the week.

American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$95.50/bbl, down -US$7 for the week, while the international Brent price is holding at just over US$101/bbl, down -US$7.50 for the week.

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from Saturday, at this time at 59.7 USc, up +70 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.9 which is up +10 bps from Saturday but up +40 bps for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,392 and up +1.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low however at just under +/- 0.6%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.