Shutterstock Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news that now we are in August, there are only 100 working days until Christmas, and less than 70 until our 2026 general election! You will need to pull your finger out to ensure your 2026 goals are on track to be accomplished.

This week will see the release of a number of updates on how the July real estate market performed. More importantly, we will get the June labour market update and that is expected to show rising joblessness (to 5.4%). To be fair, labour market data are lagging indicators.

In Australia, Cotality and Domain will report what they saw in their residential real estate markets. And we will get both household spending and cost of living updates for June this week, neither expected to show improvements. We should also note that their fuel excise tax suspension ended last night. From April to June the discount was 32 AUc/liter, for June and July it was 16c. Now there is no relief discount there.

Globally it will be all about July PMIs (other than keeping an eye on the warmongers who all show a distinct lack of any idea on how to end the conflicts they started).

In the US, the other important data will be their end of week labour market updates in their non-farm payrolls report. There is little evidence to suggest it will be a strong one and markets currently expect another month of less than +100,000 gains (+91,000) and a rising jobless rate (4.3%).

We will be tracking their bond market signals closely too. And that the Trump Organisation is regarded by banks as a money-laundering entity barely raises an eyebrow these days, indicates how low the US has fallen. But also, a key background reason risk premiums are rising.

In India, they will get a central bank review but no-change to their policy rate (5.25%) is anticipated.

We will be tracking those PMIs too, especially in China to see if the private S&P Global versions continue to be more upbeat than the dour official versions. After four months of minor expansion, those official factory PMIs has slipped back into small contraction with a much sharper shift than was expected. After two months of minor expansion, their official services PMI also slipped back into a small contraction, also a sharper shift lower than expected.

China's overall growth targets are looking less likely to be achieved the longer the year goes on. But lets not overstate these pullback signals; most countries would love to have their growth levels even at the reduced impetus. China's key issue is that new order levels are fading and exports are the key driver, not internal consumption (which is their goal). So more induced infrastructure stimulus is on the way.

Korean industrial production bounced back sharply in June after the minor but unexpected dip in May. The June level was +5.8% higher than a year ago, up +2.3% from May, a heartening rebound for them.

The Korean stock market bounced back sharply on Friday after the earlier dives, but they still ended the week down more than -3%.

Japanese industrial production recorded a similar recovery in June, up +4.2% from a year ago, up +1.3% for the month. But that was not matched by retail sales in Japan which took a rather large tumble, down -4.1% from the strong year-ago level, up +0.5% from May.

The Japanese central bank intervention support for their currency may have been significantly expensive, even if it has succeeded in halting the devaluation with a 3% recovery. Reports indicate they spent US$45 to US$50 bln on the few-days effort. It happened again on Friday, this time in a joint action with the US. And more may be coming.

EU inflation came in at 2.9% in July as expected, up marginally from June's 2.8%.

Australian producer prices rose +3.6% in June from a year ago, the most since early 2025 and above the anticipated +2.5% and even the 'high' Q1-2026 3.0% level. Inflation is embedding and it is a result that will focus attention by officials.

In the US, even though the US Fed held its policy rate unchanged last Thursday (despite 3 dissenters wanting higher rates), markets have pushed US benchmark rates higher anyway. The UST 10 year is +27 bps higher at the end of July than at the beginning. Their 30 year benchmark is also +27 bps higher. Most of these increases came in the past two weeks, and will resonate soon for American home loan borrowers.

The updated July University of Michigan sentiment survey confirmed its better July levels, and confirmed lower inflation expectations. Still, these new levels are -11% lower than year-ago levels with perceptions of current conditions -19% lower. These measures are still in the down-trend that started in 2024 even after these better July results. They noted that US consumers remain focused on pocketbook issues like purchasing power, while political or military developments remain more in the background.

Also improving in July were the results of the Chicago PMI, clearly benefiting from stockpiling and reshoring still.

In the current Q2-2026 earnings season reporting, 86% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 77% of S&P 500 companies has reported a positive revenue surprise.

In Canada, they reported their GDP rose modestly in June, a third consecutive rise and the fifth gain in six months as their economy gathers steam. Q2-2026 results aren't yet available but it is clear they will be quite positive, in contrast to the small dip in Q1-2026, and the weak Q2-2025 result.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.75%, up +1 bp from this time Saturday, up +7 bps for the week. We make that its highest since January 2025 (briefly) and prior to that October 2023. The 30 year yield is at 5.28% and a 20+ year high.

The price of gold has fallen to US$4042/oz, down -US$8 from Saturday down -US$6 for the week. Silver is down -50 USc at just over US$57.50/oz, down -US$1 for the week.

Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday still at now just over US$84.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just over US$88/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just under 58.9 USc, but up +100 bps for the week and back to early June levels. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 83.8 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.6 which is also unchanged from this time Saturday, and also up +100 bps for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,293 and up +0.4% from this time Saturday, down -1.4% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.0%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI