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Kia ora.

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the US-Iran conflict seems to be intensifying. Market responses don't reflect that yet however.

In the US, initial jobless claims rose last week to 245,000 but this was less of a rise than seasonal factors can account for. There are now 1.85 mln people on these benefits, less than year-ago levels.

US retail sales were up a healthy +8.4% in June from a year ago but virtually unchanged from May. If you take out cars and petrol, then the rise is +5.7% from a year ago, and a fall from May. Still good, but boosted by their claimed +3.5% inflation. Online sales of electronics goods were particularly strong, suggesting buyers were looking to get ahead of tariff and trade impacts.

Meanwhile, new order levels reported in the Philly Fed's July factory survey were impressive. But this came with a fall-away in sentiment about the future, and with unusually high input cost inflation. More signs of stockpiling behaviour.

And US petrol prices are rising again.

US homebuilder sentiment fell in July in the NAHB survey. Not by a lot, but keeping it in the depressed state this sector has been in since the pandemic. They have an input cost problem too.

The other side of this industry is in lackluster conditions too. Pending home sales fell in June from May, and came in slightly lower than year-ago levels. That was their biggest retreat in six months. The weakness was broad based across the whole country.

In Canada, their June housing starts were -13% lower than year-ago levels. These were weak in Vancouver with a big fall-off in multiunit construction, but quite strong in Toronto.

In Korea, their central bank raised its policy rate yesterday, raising it from 2.5% to 2.75%. This was as expected however. It was their first rise in more than three years as it grapples with inflationary pressure at least partially stemming from a faster economic expansion. Their previous change was a cut of -25 bps in May 2025.

In Australia, the respected Melbourne Institute survey of inflation expectations has come in with a 4.7% July result after it's 5.5% in June after topping out at 5.9% in April. Australia's official inflation was 4.0% in May after topping out at 4.2% in April. Their June CPI is due to be released on Wednesday, July 29.

Global container freight rates stayed very high last week even though they dipped -2% from the prior week. That leaves them +75% higher than year-ago levels. Meanwhile bulk freight rates were little-changed over the past week to be +55% higher than year-ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday.

Wall Street has started today with the S&P500 down -0.7% and the Nasdaq down -1.6%.

The price of gold has fallen to US$3984/oz, down -US$78 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$55.50/oz, down -US$2 from yesterday.

Oil prices are little-changed from yesterday at just on US$79/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just under US$84.50/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed low overnight There have been just 3 crude tankers and 8 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and 18 entering for new loads (5 dark) and almost all Iran-linked. More ships are exiting the Red Sea now, but much fewer want to enter. This rush out may be because Iran has told the Houthis to close the waterway if the US strikes Iran's civilian electricity network.

The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at just under 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at just over 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.2 which is down -20 bps from this time yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,111 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-1%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

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