Episode Summary: "The World's Next Countries" Everything Everywhere Daily
Host: Gary Arndt | Release Date: February 8, 2025

Introduction

In the February 8, 2025 episode of Everything Everywhere Daily, host Gary Arndt delves into the intricate and evolving landscape of global nations by exploring potential new countries that may emerge within the next decade. Arndt examines regions poised for independence, considering historical contexts, current movements, economic viability, and geopolitical implications.

Understanding the Complexity of Defining Countries [00:00 - 01:51]

Gary begins by addressing the challenges in determining the exact number of countries worldwide. He notes that estimates range from 193 (the number of United Nations member states) to over 200 when considering other international organizations. Historically, the number of countries has fluctuated dramatically, especially during periods of colonization and decolonization. For instance, the early 19th century saw over 200 entities, including various kingdoms and duchies. This number dwindled to around 55 by World War I due to European colonization. Post-World War II decolonization significantly increased the number of nations, with recent additions like East Timor (2002), Montenegro (2006), and South Sudan (2011). Despite a slowdown in the 21st century, Arndt suggests that new nations may still emerge before the decade concludes.

Notable Quote:
"In the early 19th century, most of the estimates I've read put the number of countries at somewhere in the low 200s." — Gary Arndt [00:50]

1. Greenland: A Smooth Path to Independence [02:00 - 05:00]

Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark since 1979, has been progressively gaining control over its affairs, culminating in expanded autonomy in 2009. With a population of approximately 56,000, Greenland is linguistically and ethnically distinct from Denmark and geographically remote. Current polls show about 70% support for independence, and the two largest parties in Greenland's Parliament advocate for sovereignty. Greenland's substantial landmass and resource wealth, particularly in minerals and potential Arctic developments, bolster its case for independence. Economically, while heavily reliant on Danish support, Greenland has the potential to establish new economic partnerships with countries like Canada and the United States.

Notable Quote:
"I think the transition to independence as such would be pretty smooth." — Gary Arndt [04:30]

2. Bougainville: Awaiting Official Recognition [05:10 - 09:00]

Bougainville, the easternmost part of Papua New Guinea, is the largest island in the Solomon Islands archipelago. The push for independence stems from historical grievances related to resource exploitation, particularly the Panguna copper mine, which fueled the Bougainville Civil War (1988-1998). A peace agreement in 2001 granted Bougainville autonomous status and promised a future referendum on independence. In 2019, an overwhelming 97.7% voted in favor of independence in a non-binding referendum. The pathway to sovereignty involves negotiations with Papua New Guinea, with an anticipated timeline between 2025 and 2027 pending parliamentary ratification. Should Bougainville gain independence, it would have a population of around 300,000 and a per capita GDP of approximately $1,100.

Notable Quote:
"The agreement between the government and Bougainville outlines a timeline for independence between 2025 and 2027." — Gary Arndt [08:15]

3. New Caledonia: Demographic Hurdles to Sovereignty [09:10 - 12:00]

New Caledonia, a French territory acquired in 1853, has a tumultuous history marked by violent clashes like the 1988 Uvia hostage crisis. Subsequent accords in 1988 and 1998 granted greater autonomy and set a framework for potential independence. Despite three referendums held in 2018, 2020, and 2021—where pro-independence votes initially surged but ultimately fell short—demographic challenges persist. The native Kanak population constitutes only about 41% of the total population, with significant European French and other ethnic groups present. Economically, New Caledonia benefits from nickel mining and tourism, boasting a relatively high per capita GDP of $34,000. However, the varied population demographics and French control complicate the independence process.

Notable Quote:
"New Caledonia has the hardest road to independence because of the population demographics of the island and the fact that they're controlled by France." — Gary Arndt [11:00]

4. Somaliland: A De Facto Independent Entity Seeking Recognition [12:10 - 13:40]

Somaliland, the northern region of Somalia, declared independence in 1991 following the collapse of Siad Barre's regime. For over three decades, it has functioned autonomously, establishing its own government, currency, and democratic elections. With a population of approximately 6.2 million, Somaliland operates as a stable and self-governed entity, contrasting sharply with the rest of Somalia. However, it lacks international recognition, primarily due to concerns among African nations about setting precedents for separatist movements. Recognition from influential countries like Ethiopia could pave the way for broader acknowledgment, solidifying Somaliland's status as an independent nation.

Notable Quote:
"Somaliland unilaterally declared independence from Somalia in 1991 after the collapse of dictator Siad Barre's regime." — Gary Arndt [12:45]

5. Cook Islands: On the Verge of Independence [13:50 - 15:25]

The Cook Islands, a Polynesian territory with around 15,000 residents, maintain a unique relationship with New Zealand. While officially a New Zealand territory, the Cook Islands exercises full control over its internal affairs, including issuing its own stamps and maintaining diplomatic relations with several countries. They also have their own Olympic team and representation in international organizations like UNESCO and the World Health Organization. The primary obstacle to full independence revolves around citizenship issues, as many Cook Islanders hold New Zealand citizenship. Despite this, New Zealand has signaled a willingness to support independence should the Cook Islands decide to pursue it, making it theoretically possible for them to declare independence at any time.

Notable Quote:
"The Cook Islands could literally do it at any time, and there's nothing stopping them except for the fact that they just haven't bothered to pull the trigger." — Gary Arndt [14:30]

Conclusion [15:00 - 15:25]

Gary concludes by emphasizing the unpredictable nature of geopolitical developments, acknowledging that unforeseen events could influence the emergence of new nations. He reiterates that while the territories discussed are currently well-positioned for independence, the future remains uncertain, and the formation of new countries can be influenced by a myriad of factors.

Closing Note:
"I think that the territories I've listed here have the best shot at being new potential members of the United Nations by the year 2035." — Gary Arndt [15:00]

Production Credits

• Executive Producer: Charles Daniel
• Associate Producers: Austin Okun and Kabrin Kiefer

Final Thoughts

Gary Arndt's insightful exploration into the potential future nations provides listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the factors driving independence movements. By examining Greenland, Bougainville, New Caledonia, Somaliland, and the Cook Islands, Arndt highlights the delicate interplay between historical grievances, economic viability, demographic challenges, and international politics in shaping the world's evolving map of nations.