Podcast Summary: 60-20-20 Changed Everything | Tony Greer on the New Portfolio Regime

Excess Returns | January 27, 2026
Guests: Tony Greer (TG Macro)
Host: Matt Zeigler

Episode Overview

This episode features Tony Greer, macro investor and founder of TG Macro, discussing seismic shifts in market regimes, portfolio construction, and investor sentiment as we enter 2026. Greer unpacks the narrative of eroding institutional trust as a key catalyst behind dramatic changes in asset allocation—from the iconic 60/40 stock/bond portfolio to a new 60/20/20 framework. He relates this to investor migration into commodities, especially precious metals, and details opportunities emerging in mining and natural resources sectors. The discussion is grounded in both top-down macro observation and Greer’s decades of trading desk experience.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Erosion of Institutional Trust & The Market Consequences

• BASE Jumping Off Mount Rushmore Metaphor (00:58, 03:03)
  Tony draws a vivid analogy likening the current investment climate to “base jumping off Mount Rushmore,” highlighting a total collapse in faith in core institutions: “The narrative driving gold is a complete loss of faith in institutions left and right.”
  — Tony Greer at 00:58

• Fraud & Credibility Busts
  Greer argues the public’s reaction to recurring institutional crises or fraud is the rapid movement of capital into tangible safe-haven assets:

  “Everyone is starting to understand that the system is stacked up against them in so many ways. So they’re buying gold.”
  — Tony Greer at 03:03

2. The New Portfolio Regime: From 60/40 to 60/20/20

• What is 60/20/20?
  Greer notes Morgan Stanley’s shift in recommended asset allocation—from 60% stocks, 40% bonds to 60% equities, 20% bonds, and 20% alternatives, with a new emphasis on commodities and precious metals.

  “We were 60/40 since Jesus, right? And now we’re 60/20/20. And I was like, that’s a BFD...”
  — Tony Greer at 05:08

• Mutual Funds and Wealth Managers Moving
  He describes the downstream effect of these shifts:

  “Morgan Stanley wealth managers are gonna call everybody up in their wheelhouse and say, you guys gotta buy gold or gold miners, you gotta have something here.”
  — Tony Greer at 05:08

3. Macro Context: Central Banks, Inflation, and the Dollar

• Central Bank Credibility Lost
  Greer traces the chain of events from Bernanke’s bailouts to Powell’s pandemic response (“doubled the balance sheet in one print”), to current “political games with our kids’ future”:

  “The natural reaction for people is … ‘Give me my AppMex app and I’m gonna buy more precious metal.’”
  — Tony Greer at 06:53

• Real-Life Inflation & Purchasing Power
  Greer questions official inflation figures versus lived experience at the grocery store:

  “I’m paying $19 a pound for bologna. Like, it is not back in the bottle.”
  — Tony Greer at 08:35

4. The “Great Awareness Phase”: Food, Pharma, and Health Trust Erodes

• Loss of Trust in Big Food
  Americans are waking up to issues with food quality (e.g., seed oils) and corporate practices:

  “There's this awareness phase right? … people are learning what seed oils are … it's the stuff that Big Food is putting into our food that makes us unhealthy.”
  — Tony Greer at 12:05

• Medical & Insurance Fraud
  The health care sector is tarred by prosecutorial headlines and massive fraud prosecutions:

  “These are the people that are in charge of my health, defrauding everyone left and right. Give me my phone and buy me more silver. I don’t trust any of these guys.”
  — Tony Greer at 16:27

• Legal and Political System Decay
  Political prosecutions (Trump mugshot, Swift sanctions, Epstein files) fuel “banana republic” comparisons and more impetus for the “FU trade”—buying tangible assets:

  “That was the most bullish thing in gold you’ve ever seen in your life. They put a president behind bars … the rule of law is kind of out the window.”
  — Tony Greer at 16:55

5. From Diagnosis to Action: What Actually Works in Portfolios

• Natural Resources "Package"
  Tony’s top sectors:

  • Precious metals (gold, silver, platinum; especially gold/miners)
  • Uranium miners
  • Industrial miners
  • Basic materials (copper, oil)

  “I’m still talking about the three leaders from last year, Gold miners, industrial miners, and uranium miners. Gold miners were up 150% last year and I wouldn’t doubt that they outperform that this year.”
  — Tony Greer at 19:26

• Bull Market Technicals
  Greer emphasizes that prior cycles show multiyear rallies following long consolidations:

  “Markets that consolidate for years and then break out, they rally for years after that.”
  — Tony Greer at 29:06

6. Inter-Market Relationships and Rotation

• Tech Now Lagging, Commodities Leading

  “The risk assets are no longer Nvidia… That is the gold miners, industrial miners, and uranium miners.”
  — Tony Greer at 30:45

• Divergence from Old Diversification Models
  Matt probes concerns about precious metals and equities rallying together, challenging old diversification assumptions (the “Cohen and Steers real estate handout” analogy).

7. Understanding the Precious Metals Complex

• Clarity and Transparency
  Gold and silver (plus their miners) offer the most transparent, liquid exposure. Platinum/palladium are higher risk/complex, best left to experts.

  “If you want to just keep it to the gold and gold miners ... I feel like there’s clarity there.”
  — Tony Greer at 42:10

8. Emerging Trends: Tech & Miners Cross-Pollination

• Tech Companies Securing Supply Chains
  Amazon’s partnership with Rio Tinto signals a new phase where Big Tech is moving upstream to lock in resource access.

  “That’s going to be, you know, a very sought after period for natural resources. So they decided to just cut out all the middlemen and partner with the effing mine.”
  — Tony Greer at 46:58

9. Markets to Watch, Warning Signs & Exit Signals

• What Would Change Tony’s Bullishness?

  • Dislocating bond market pricing in runaway inflation.
  • Metals and mining stocks lagging the metals themselves (signal end of rally).
  • Breakdown in the cyclical outperformance trend.

  “Dislocating bond market will have me sitting up in my chair selling stock, meaning a dislocating bond market lower, which would mean a bond market that is pricing in inflation.”
  — Tony Greer at 61:23

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Macro “Awareness Phase”:

  “Now, nobody’s saying directly, ‘This company is putting seed oil in the food ... I’m gonna buy gold.’ But it’s part of—I don’t trust Big Food anymore and I’ve got to go my own route.”
  — Tony Greer at 12:05

• On Central Banks:

  “You can go back to Bernanke ... the bailouts ... go to Powell for doubling the balance sheet after COVID ... You kind of look at it from a big picture. You’re like, wow, we just doubled the balance sheet in one print ... there’s going to be some hella inflation to deal with at some point.”
  — Tony Greer at 06:53

• On Political Optics and Markets:

  “Arresting Trump by the Biden administration ... the most bullish thing this century I think, for gold.”
  — Tony Greer at 17:57

Important Timestamps

• 00:58–03:03: The “BASE Jumping” metaphor & institutional trust collapse
• 05:08: The 60/20/20 asset allocation shift & its significance
• 06:53–08:35: Central bank credibility and lived inflation
• 12:05–14:25: The “Great Awareness Phase” (food and health trust issues)
• 16:27–17:57: Legal/political system distrust; precious metals as the “FU trade”
• 19:26–21:50: Sectors for the new regime: natural resources and miners
• 29:06: Markets that consolidate for years then rally for years
• 30:45: The new rotation: commodities up, tech down
• 42:10: How to play precious metals safely
• 46:58: Tech companies buying/partnering with miners
• 61:23–62:14: How Tony would know his thesis was wrong

Tony Greer’s Takeaways for Investors

• Be Early: The rotation into commodities/natural resources is in early innings.
• Watch Technicals: Multi-year breakouts from consolidation are especially powerful.
• Ride the Trend, Be Ready to Exit: Bull markets reward confidence, but price/technical action will tell you if the thesis breaks.
• Diversify Smart: Gold and miners for transparency and liquidity; treat speculative metals and uranium with caution.
• Monitor Institutional Rotations: Major asset allocators are meaningfully shifting, and retail is only beginning to catch up.

Where to Find Tony Greer

• tgmacro.com
• Twitter: @TGMacro
• Macro Dirt Dual podcast with Jared Dillian
• Conference: February 19-20, 2026, Nashville (Virgin Hotel)

Summary prepared for Excess Returns listeners seeking to understand macro trends, portfolio shifts, and actionable takeaways for the new regime.