Excess Returns Podcast – "The One Lesson": 50+ Great Investors Share the One Thing They Would Teach You

Released: November 30, 2025
Hosts: Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau, Matt Zeigler

Episode Overview

In this unique compilation episode, the Excess Returns team distills wisdom collected from 200+ prominent podcast guests over their years of interviewing some of the best minds in investment. Each guest answers one closing question: “Based on your experience in markets, if you could teach one lesson to your average investor, what would it be?”
This episode is a rapid-fire masterclass, presenting a mosaic of strategies, philosophies, warnings, and encouragements for investors of every background—from rookies to professionals seeking perspective.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Find an Approach You Can Stick With

• No Universal Playbook: There’s no single “right way”—you must find a strategy that resonates with your temperament and situation.
• Stay the Course: Success comes from sticking with your chosen approach through thick and thin, regardless of what others are doing.
• Quote: “The good strategy you can stick with is vastly superior to the great strategy that you can't stick with.” (approximately 68:15)

2. The Importance of Humility and Self-Knowledge

• Know Your Limits: Acknowledge what you do and don’t know. Avoid the temptation to believe you have an edge when you probably don’t.
  • Quote: “Be humble and be patient.” (approx. 152:20)
• Avoid Envy and Comparison: Comparing to others, especially those with outsized wins (“lottery winners”), is dangerous.

3. Preservation and Growth, Not ‘Get Rich Quick’

• Focus on Longevity: The essence of investing is to preserve and steadily grow wealth, not chase ten- or hundred-baggers or get-rich-quick schemes.
  • Quote: “Investing is about preserving and growing wealth. It's not about getting rich.” (00:01)
• Income from Work Matters: “If you’re a doctor, go back to being a doctor… Let investing do what it's supposed to do: preserve and grow the wealth you accumulate from the rest of your life.” (03:41)

4. Diversification — True and Deep

• Not Just Stocks & Bonds: Diversification isn’t just a buzzword for “stocks and bonds.” Spread by asset class, strategies, and economic exposure.
  • Quote: “True diversification means diversifying your asset class exposures and diversifying your strategy exposure… Open your mind to the diversification possibilities that are out there.” (80:00)

5. Patience and Time: The Compounding Edge

• Compounding is King: Wealth accumulates slowly over time. The law of compounding and long-term patience outperform almost any tactical strategy.
  • Quote: "It's the law of compounding. I think people need to stick with that... Just buy and hold wins out over time." (145:45)
• Rip van Winkle Investing: Better to “sleep on” your investments than obsess over them or try to be Nostradamus.
  • Quote: “For most investors, it's better to be Rip van Winkle than Nostradamus.” (66:33)

6. Avoiding Behavioral Traps

• Performance Chasing & Market Timing: Don’t try to chase winners or time exits perfectly, as these behaviors are self-defeating.
• Limit Portfolio Checking: Frequent monitoring amplifies perceived volatility and primed mistakes.
  • Quote: "Look at your portfolio as little as possible. Whoever looks at it more loses." (28:00)
• Have and Follow a Rules-Based Process: Emotion is the enemy—develop rules to govern your actions, and stick to them.
  • Quote: “There's nothing more important than a rules-based approach.” (154:22)

7. Write Things Down and Be Process-Focused

• Investing Diary: Maintain a record of your decisions and reasoning to promote learning, honesty, and humility.
  • Quote: "Keep a diary... reread your diary so that you can put yourself back into the mindset you were in, the decisions you took, why you took them." (04:41)
• Process Over Outcomes: Judge your process, not just results; it's easy to confuse luck with skill.

8. Ground Decisions in Evidence and Base Rates

• Base Rates: Use broad historical context, not just personal anecdotes, to set realistic expectations.
  • Quote: "I would encourage people to learn about and apply base rates... Think about what happened when other people or organizations were in this position before." (16:27)
• Evidence-Based: Focus on sound evidence, not market narratives or hype.

9. Emotional Balance and Mistake Acceptance

• Forgive Your Errors: Mistakes are inevitable—accept and learn from them to stay in the game.
  • Quote: “Be kind to yourself. It's okay to be human. Don't think of yourself as a God. Don't compare yourself to lottery winners.” (49:06)
• Avoid Catastrophic Losses: Prioritize survival—avoid permanent losses that take you out of the investing “game.” (127:43)

10. Remember the Bigger Picture

• Portfolio Secondary to Life: Investing should support your life, not dominate it.
  • Quote: “The portfolio is secondary to your life... There is no truth to be found in financial markets... Truth is to be found in the smile of your child, the greeting that your wife gives you when you come home.” (58:01)
• Have Perspective: Enjoy life, invest responsibly, and don’t let markets distort your worldview.

11. Understand Supply & Demand and Liquidity

• The fundamental driver of markets is “How many buyers and sellers are there?”—Never lose sight of liquidity, particularly in challenging periods. (131:25)

12. Be Flexible and Open-Minded

• No single style works in all environments; be prepared to adapt as conditions change.
  • Quote: “You want to be flexible and incorporate the PE, growth rate, and quality into any investment decision.” (163:40)

13. Quality Over Cheapness

• All else equal, favor owning great businesses for the long run, not merely cheap ones.
  • Quote: “Err on the side of buy good businesses as opposed to cheap businesses.” (158:18)

14. Keep it Simple

• Simplicity often beats complexity—balanced funds, index portfolios, minimal moving parts, low fees, and automated processes (e.g., via Vanguard or Betterment).
  • Quote: “Simpler the better. Honestly. If you can do it with two funds, do it with two funds.” (93:05)

15. Know What You Own (and Why)

• Whether via advisor or DIY, clearly understand your holdings and their rationale.
  • Quote: "Know what you own, even if it's like delegated through an investment advisor… fundamentally you have to know what you own, period." (147:55)

16. Other Notable Practical Advice

• Don’t ignore fees and taxes—they’re critical to net returns.
• Portfolio structure can be as important as (or more than) security selection.
• Be skeptical if something sounds too good ("20% returns with no risk") (13:50).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

On Humility:

“Be humble and be patient. That's cheating already. There are two things there.” (152:20)

On Chasing Big Returns:

“Investing is about preserving and growing wealth. It's not about getting rich...” (00:01)

On Patience & Compounding:

“It's the law of compounding. I think people need to stick with that.” (145:45)

On Avoiding Envy:

“Don’t let investing become the center of your universe... You need the income from whatever you do to create the wealth which you can then preserve and grow.” (03:41)

On Base Rates:

“I would encourage people to learn about and apply base rates as they think about the world of investing.” (16:27)

On Simplifying:

“Simpler the better. Honestly. If you can do it with two funds, do it with two funds.” (93:05)

On Diary/Record Keeping:

“Keep a diary... reread your diary so that you can put yourself back into the mindset you were in, the decisions you took, why you took them.” (04:41)

On Liquidity:

“Never lose sight of supply and demand, always understand your liquidity point and always think of it in terms of... the amount of money that is available.” (131:29)

On Flexibility and Changing Environments:

“You want to be flexible and incorporate... the value and the quality into any investment decision.” (163:44)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:01 – 06:20: Introduction, recurring themes (“no right or wrong way,” “preserve and grow wealth”)
• 13:00 – 20:00: On risk, skepticism, and base rates
• 28:00: Dangers of frequent portfolio checking
• 49:00 – 54:00: Accepting mistakes, forgiving yourself, "man in the arena" mindset
• 58:00: “Portfolio is secondary to your life”
• 66:30: “Rip van Winkle” vs. Nostradamus analogy
• 80:00 – 84:00: The real meaning of diversification
• 93:00: “Simpler is better" on portfolio construction
• 127:43: Avoiding catastrophic losses
• 131:25: Supply, demand, and the centrality of liquidity
• 145:45: Focus on compounding
• 152:20: Humility and patience
• 163:40: Flexibility in investment approach

Recurring Themes Among Expert Guests

• True investing success is more about behavior (discipline, patience, humility) than about predicting or picking.
• A rules-based, simple, diversified approach is the north star for most investors.
• Emotional self-control and the ability to “do nothing” are vastly underrated skills.
• Compounding works best for the consistent and patient.
• Don’t overcomplicate investing—time, diversification, low fees, and a long view matter most.
• Learn from mistakes and forgive yourself—just avoid the ones that knock you out of the game.
• Invest in life as much as (or more than) in markets.

This episode is a treasure trove of enduring wisdom—perfect for both new and seasoned investors seeking perspective, caution, and encouragement to stay the course.