Excess Returns Podcast: The Regime Shift No One is Prepared For | Grant Williams on the 100 Year Pivot

Date: January 12, 2026
Host: Matt Zeigler
Guest: Grant Williams

Episode Overview

This episode delves into the "100 Year Pivot" — a profound, generational regime shift underway in the global financial and geopolitical landscape. Grant Williams joins Matt Zeigler to discuss the Fourth Turning thesis, the loss of trust in institutions, the unraveling of the dollar-centric order, the role of commodities (especially gold), the unforeseen consequences of AI, and the challenges for investors facing an unpredictable new era.

Williams argues that historical cycles are driving transformational change, and lays out what this means for governments, markets, and everyday investors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Defining the "100 Year Pivot" and the Fourth Turning (02:00–07:52)

• The Fourth Turning: Based on Strauss & Howe's generational cycles theory, history moves in century-long patterns of institutional strengthening and decline, split into four 20-25 year "turnings."
  • We are now in a Fourth Turning, characterized by institutional decay, societal distrust, and the potential for cathartic, even climactic, transformation.
• Loss of Trust: Across politics, finance, religion, and global organizations (e.g., NATO, UN, IMF), trust has eroded — leading to uncertainty and disorder.
• Quote:

  “Just this sense that for the first time in a century, we’re going into a period where institutions get torn down... It will be chaotic, it’ll be tumultuous. And on the other side... there will be a period of tremendous prosperity and growth.”
  — Grant Williams (06:17)

2. Institutional Decay: From the Financial Crisis to Russian Asset Seizures (08:32–13:54)

• Financial Crisis (2008): Marked the kickoff of the current Fourth Turning, as trust in banks collapsed and subsequent political responses failed to restore faith.
• Seizure of Russian Assets (2022): The unprecedented freezing of Russian central bank reserves fundamentally undermined trust in the U.S.-led financial system.
  • This signaled to all countries that U.S. reserves are no longer sacrosanct, accelerating diversification away from the dollar.
• Quote:

  “By sanctioning those assets, by freezing them, what America did was basically say: you can no longer trust in us as a partner for state-level national sovereign reserves.”
  — Grant Williams (13:54)

3. Repercussions: De-Dollarization & the Rise of Gold (13:54–20:45)

• Central Banks Shift to Gold: In response to geopolitical risk, central banks buy gold instead of replenishing U.S. Treasuries.
  • Gold’s price has doubled as a result of steady central bank accumulation.
• Shrinking Dollar Dominance: While not immediate, the incentive for countries to seek alternatives to the dollar is now systemic and growing.
• Quote:

  “This is a problem for America at a time where obviously it has massive budget deficits it needs to fund... if you can’t trust the issuer of the reserve currency, you’ve got some very tricky decisions to make.”
  — Grant Williams (18:44)

4. Historical Parallel: Suez Crisis and the Death of Reserve Currencies (21:24–30:59)

• Suez Crisis (1956) Story: The U.S. refused to support Britain, forcing the pound’s decline—a historical pivot to dollar supremacy.
• No Currency is Forever: Every dominant currency eventually yields to new realities; today’s vulnerabilities echo prior transitions.
• Probability of Change: While not certain, the risk of a dollar system reset is now real and merits preparation.
• Quote:

  “No sovereign reserve currency in history has survived. They’ve all gone away... the dollar will go that way too. It could be years in the making, but it’s heading in that direction.”
  — Grant Williams (23:58)

5. How the Dollar Order Might Unwind (31:57–38:14)

• Alternative Payment Systems: Marginal transactions avoiding the dollar (e.g., China-Saudi oil trades) signal the gradual construction of parallel systems.
• Shifting Global Alliances: U.S. influence in global energy and security is waning; other regions are aligning on their terms.
• Quote:

  “If you look at America’s finances... The United States... is certainly more vulnerable than it’s ever been to the kind of challenge that Britain was faced with in Suez.”
  — Grant Williams (26:39)

6. Fundamental Shift: From Financialization to Commodities (39:04–45:00)

• Long Rally is Over: The era (1980-2020) of easy gains from stocks, bonds, and housing—fueled by declining rates and globalization—is ending.
• Return of "Building Blocks": Scarce commodities (e.g., copper, uranium, gold) take precedence over financial products in a world focused on reindustrialization and security.
• Quote:

  “These building blocks, these fundamental building blocks... when you have to onshore all those supply chains you sent overseas become crucial. You don’t need another CDO... You need copper, you need uranium.”
  — Grant Williams (41:57)

7. The Unpredictable Role of AI (45:32–55:32)

• AI: Discovery or Bubble?: Williams likens the AI frenzy to a possible dot-com style overbuild—uncertainty reigns; massive capital is spent, but the ultimate value is unclear.
• Social Consequences: AI-driven hiring leads to impersonality, eroded trust; "nepo babies" and direct personal networks regain importance.
• Quote:

  “As soon as [AI is] used for everything, it feels like it’s worth nothing to me. I don’t know. I really—I'm confused by it.” — Grant Williams (47:30)

8. The Central Importance of Trust (51:48–56:19)

• Foundation of Money & Society: Both thrive only where trust exists; current vibrations of uncertainty reflect deep societal and institutional malaise.
• Personal Networks: As AI makes trust harder to assess on paper, people revert to recommendations and direct experiences.
• Quote:

  “Society is built on trust. You have to have trust for society to function. Without it, it just doesn’t work.”
  — Grant Williams (51:57)

9. Portfolio Implications: A New Playbook for Investors (56:46–62:38)

• Re-think Everything: Allocators must recognize the seriousness of the shift—a superficial sector rotation won’t suffice.
• Turn to Tangibles: Commodities and assets historically out of favor (e.g., gold, energy, materials) could become core holdings.
• Courage is Needed: Moving away from crowd-favorite U.S. equities and momentum strategies requires boldness, especially as risk and volatility rise.
• Quote:

  “If you are set up for how the world has been and these changes... are real and they're happening... There is no chance in hell that what worked in that previous environment works the same way going forward. Zero.” — Grant Williams (58:48)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Fourth Turning and generational change:

  “This is the kind of change that happens once every 80 to 100 years…If everything’s reversed, it stands to reason that the next 40 years can be really hard to make money.” (00:45)

• On the significance of the Russian asset seizure:

  “I called it the end of the financial world as we know it…and I don’t think that was hyperbole. I think that has changed everything.” (18:34)

• On AI’s unintended consequences:

  “It’s almost spun the world back to a time where we go, you know what, let’s just have…Jim’s son come in because he’s a great kid.” (48:29)

• On portfolio construction for the new era:

  “You have to understand your tolerance for risk…If you are putting on positions greater than your tolerance…it will make you make a series of bad decisions…and that is the way to amplify the problems we’re talking about.” (59:16)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Fourth Turning & 100 Year Pivot Explained: 02:00–07:52
• Institutional Decay & Russian Asset Seizure: 08:32–13:54
• Central Bank Gold Buying & De-Dollarization: 13:54–20:45
• Suez Crisis History & Dollar’s Vulnerabilities: 21:24–30:59
• Alternative Payment Systems & Global Realignment: 31:57–38:14
• From Financialization to Commodities: 39:04–45:00
• AI and Social Trust: 45:32–55:32
• Portfolio Construction for the New Regime: 56:46–62:38

Final Thoughts & Resources

• Grant Williams’ Resources:
  • Twitter: @ttmygh
  • Website: grant-williams.com
• Recommended Reading:
  • The Fourth Turning by Neil Howe & William Strauss
  • Luke Gromen’s work on global monetary systems (fftt-llc.com)

Summary Tone: Insightful, reflective, candid, with a focus on challenging long-held assumptions and encouraging deeper critical thinking for investors and citizens facing the “100 Year Pivot.”