The SpaceX IPO… What Happens When $1.75 Trillion Meets 4% Float

Summary

Excess Returns Episode Summary

The SpaceX IPO… What Happens When $1.75 Trillion Meets 4% Float

Date: June 6, 2026
Hosts/Panelists: Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau, Matt Zeigler, Cameron Dawson, Dave Nadig

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Episode Overview

This episode, co-produced with the “Click Beta” podcast, dives deep into one of the most anticipated financial events of the decade: the SpaceX IPO. Rather than focusing solely on the business case for SpaceX, the hosts and expert panel analyze the uniquely complex market mechanics, capital flows, and psychological dynamics that surround such a massive initial public offering—especially when only a tiny fraction (4%) of shares will float. The conversation explores implications for index funds, liquidity, bubble signals, and practical challenges for investors and advisors, blending market expertise with humor and cultural references.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Unprecedented Market Mechanics of the SpaceX IPO

• Massive Scale, Minuscule Float:
  “To heck with whether you think SpaceX is a good company or not, just the trading widget that we're going to move around is going to have bizarre and I would say very unpredictable supply and demand components for at least the first 30 days.”
  —Dave Nadig (01:23)
• A $1.75 trillion market cap with only 4% float creates a rare environment of volatility, speculation, and forced buying across indexes.
• The index implications are significant; typical index inclusion timelines are being accelerated, creating layers of price-insensitive demand and potential for abnormal price swings.

2. Valuation Dilemmas and the Musk Factor

• Valuation Extremes and Fundamentals:
  Cameron Dawson notes the challenge for value investors as SpaceX comes to market at 80-100x sales, referencing historical analogs like Palantir and Tesla.
• “All of that to say is that valuations you actually do matter, even for growth stocks. As I just went through the Palantir example, we have to take it with a grain of salt because it hasn't applied in the Muskian realm.”
  —Cameron Dawson (09:58)
• Despite past experience, Musk-linked stocks have defied gravity, challenging those who believe traditional valuation discipline must prevail.

3. Flows, Indexes, and Forced Buying

• How Index Inclusion Will Shake Market Dynamics (15:10):
  • T+0: IPO prices and the stock opens.
  • T+3 Days: Options start trading—adding another vector for volatility and for short sellers to express negative bets.
  • T+5 Days: Smaller indexes and thematic ETFs (IPO and space funds) buy initial positions.
  • T+15 Days: Major inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 at an adjusted float (from 4% to 12%), followed by incremental adjustments as more shares unlock.
  • 6 Months: A new rebalance (the Qs) triggers another wave of forced index buying as more shares unlock.
• Free Float Adjustment:
  “In something like the S&P, which is free float adjusted, you know, the company will be worth... let's just call it $2 trillion. But if only, you know, 10% of the company is floating, it's included in the index as if it was a $200 billion company.”
  —Dave Nadig (17:49)
• The accelerated and size-skewed inclusion process is expected to further magnify short-term volatility and unpredictability.

4. Bubble Dynamics and Historical Parallels

• Bubbles: Always Real Earnings, Always Speculation (20:35):
  Cameron Dawson references "Boom and Bust" and the ‘bubble triangle’—marketability, speculation, liquidity—as a lens for current events.
  • Technological bubbles always have a kernel of real earnings, but speculative behavior and capital flows are what create excess and future disappointment.
  • “To say that what we're experiencing today does not have bubble like characteristics because there are earnings ignores the long historical record that anytime there is a technology driven bubble there are always real earnings.”
    —Cameron Dawson (24:15)
• Even with real business achievements, the crowding-in of capital and expectation of perpetual high returns historically leads to forward returns being borrowed from the future.

5. Liquidity, Equity Supply, and Macro Conditions

• Liquidity and Rate Market Tensions:
  Dave Nadig notes “swap rates on equities... have come way up” and that there are signs of tightening which may dampen “$150 billion worth of IPOs” hitting the market (25:42).
• Shift in Market Regimes:
  • Years of low net equity issuance (buybacks exceeded IPOs) are now turning.
  • Liquidity remains abundant but is less extreme than in 2021; money supply growth has slowed from 25% to 5%.

6. Investor and Advisor Realities

• No Edge for Most—Best to Sit Out:
  • Dave Nadig is explicit: “I made it very clear to my financial advisor I don't want to be on any side of this trade. I don't think that there is an edge to be had here. So I don't want to be long and I don't want to be short.” (12:54)
• Managing Client FOMO and Risk:
  • Most investors will own SpaceX if they hold index funds or thematic ETFs.
  • Advisors should have frank discussions about risk, position sizing, allocation unwinding, and the historical lessons of tech bubbles.
  • “What this moment requires is a great deal of discipline to know that you may not capture all of the upcycle... but you have, if you have a five year plus time horizon... all this does is introduce volatility within a portfolio. It doesn’t introduce necessarily incremental return.”
    —Cameron Dawson (30:37)
  • Advisors are “earning their keep” now more than ever, sometimes amid a proliferation of scams offering “special” SpaceX access.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Market Structure, Speculation, and Humor

• “Just the trading widget that we're going to move around is going to have bizarre and I would say very unpredictable supply and demand components for at least the first 30 days.” —Dave Nadig (01:23)
• “When you trade at such a high multiple, even if the great news happens, what tends to happen is you kind of hit a ceiling... [except] the Muskian realm.” —Cameron Dawson (09:58)
• “I can absolutely create a very credible... scenario where SpaceX comes out at 1.75 and trades up to 3 trillion... I can also create a path where we have a 50% sell off next week... this is nothing but a volatility enhancer in my book.” —Dave Nadig (29:59)
• “If a client comes to you and says, I want 10% of my portfolio in SpaceX, are you going to tell them to go find another advisor?” —Dave Nadig (32:33)
• “You want to try ayahuasca? Can we do it in a controlled environment?” —Cameron Dawson, about the risks of speculative allocation (37:22)

Cultural References & Light-Hearted Exchanges

• The team bonds over outdated CDs and the quirks of music and mixtape culture (51:04–58:00), providing both nostalgia and levity.
• Wry comments on the monoculture fostered by TikTok and the loss of regional slang (39:09–41:00).
• Advisors lament the glut of scams and dubious private SpaceX investments (36:38).

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Important Timestamps

| Time | Segment / Topic | |-------------|--------------------------------------------------------| | 01:23 | Opening thoughts: Market mechanics and bubble dynamics | | 06:35–10:46 | Dawson: Access, valuation, Musk anomaly | | 11:48–14:43 | Nadig: Market structure, float, options, forced buying | | 15:10–19:43 | Step-by-step breakdown of IPO flows & index impacts | | 20:35–25:42 | Historical bubbles, “bubble triangle,” speculation | | 25:42–29:48 | Liquidity dynamics, macro regime change | | 30:37–33:18 | Advisors managing client allocations and FOMO | | 36:38–37:22 | Scams & safe structuring of allocations | | 39:09–41:00 | Internet culture, monoculture, and slang loss | | 51:04–58:00 | CD and mixtape nostalgia, culture, musical references |

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Final Takeaways

• Uncharted Waters:
  The SpaceX IPO is not only a test for the market’s ability to absorb scale, but a test for both passive and active investors’ discipline. Forced flows, compressed timelines, and a tiny public float are set to create abnormal volatility and confusion.
• Bubble Caution:
  The classic elements of speculation, technology, and liquidity are present—suggesting a bubble dynamic, but not a guaranteed top.
• Adviser Discipline Needed:
  Advisors must protect clients from overcommitting, help them structure allocations safely, and be on alert for scams and emotional overexposure.
• Fun and Humanity:
  The crew tempers the technical discussion with humor, pop culture, and reminders of investing’s real-world context.

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Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• “To heck with whether you think SpaceX is a good company or not, just the trading widget that we're going to move around is going to have... very unpredictable supply and demand components for at least the first 30 days.” —Dave Nadig (01:23)
• “All of that to say is that valuations do actually matter, even for growth stocks... It hasn’t applied in the Muskian realm.” —Cameron Dawson (09:58)
• “This is nothing but a volatility enhancer in my book.” —Dave Nadig (29:59)
• “If a client comes to you and says, I want 10% of my portfolio in SpaceX, are you going to tell them to go find another advisor?” —Dave Nadig (32:33)
• “You want to try ayahuasca? Can we do it in a controlled environment?” —Cameron Dawson (37:22)

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For more in-depth analysis and entertaining commentary, subscribe to Excess Returns and the Click Beta podcast.

Transcript

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[C]

To heck with whether you think SpaceX is a good company or not, just the the trading widget that we're going to move around is going to have bizarre and I would say very unpredictable supply and demand components for at least the first 30 days.

[A]

To say that what we're experiencing today does not have bubble like characteristics because there are earnings actually ignores the long historical record that that anytime there is a technology driven bubble there are always real earnings.

[C]

I can absolutely create a very credible, you know, in the middle of the bell curve scenario where space that comes out at 1.75 and trades up to 3 trillion over the next 24 months and has a series of big wins and everybody gets on board. I can also create a path where we have a 50% sell off next week. I mean there this is nothing but a volatility enhancer in my book.

[B]

Those other podcasts, those are clickbait. But this, this is click Beta should market professionals have private conversations in public? Well, only to prove that all we know is that we don't know nothing. Clearly, we've got three rules. Number one, we pre agreed on a topic. We picked it out in advance. Number two, while we're live, nobody googles nothing. Number three, everybody brings a surprise topic to the table for which anything goes. Who's with me today? The Madonna of clickbait? I'm not going to make a pre IPO virgin joke, but I will say his version of Confessions on a dance floor part two is his current part [e-mail], which we in the industry lovingly refer to as his Electric Boogaloo era. Fabnatic.

[C]

I'll take the Electric Boogaloo era. What else could it be?

[A]

It's not an era. It's a lifestyle, man.

[B]

It is a lifestyle.

[C]

It's the now.

[B]

It is the now. And she's as Florida as Ariana, as Starbuck from Battlestar, as a Starbucks Grande and knows how to drop new projects mid tour. Click Beta is but her pedal and all you other podcasts who have her on. Thank you. We're next. New Edges, New Edge. Wells, Cameron Dawson. How you doing?

[A]

Thanks. Thanks. I don't know if I should take she's as Florida as Ariana. That's a compliment. I like that.

[C]

Take it as a compliment.

[B]

Yeah, it is a compliment. It is a compliment. And I have very, very little knowledge of many Ariana Grande things and was very surprised that I remembered she was from Florida. But for a tortured thank you next joke, I will go there. So we got lots of stuff. I almost got ruined on those just for the way as a child, like what's happening in pop culture these days besides a new Madonna album and a new Ariana Grande? Apparently this backroom and obsession thing. Did you see these box office numbers for the movies this weekend? Huge. Do you know anything about this, Cameron? Do you feel old as I did reading these things?

[A]

I'm not. I'm not a go to the movies kind of person.

[C]

So really you're like a more stay home Netflix until.

[A]

Yeah, I can't even stay awake through a full movie.

[B]

That's fair.

[A]

I'm not the like, best person to watch a movie with because I'm like really excited for the first five minutes and then I just have fun.

[C]

Just ow.

[B]

Nap time. It's quiet and relaxing. Well, I'm amazed that we've got basically the YouTube generation has now taken to cinema and just grossed $100 million in a weekend to people who made stuff on YouTube before. My mind was kind of blown by that, but I know nothing about these things.

[C]

On the backs of Markiplier's iron lung, which, which, that's one I followed because Markiplier is a youtuber my son was obsessed with for a long time. So, like, this is the new model and I'm here for it. Like, by all means, let these kids get out there and get this going.

[B]

Hell yeah. I think it's super cool. Even if I also had to look up Creepypasta to make sure I knew what that was. But I'm just trying to join the modern era. It's a thing, just Google it later. It's not a bad thing to Google. It's a safe thing to Google. Creepypasta. It's a mode of creativity that the kids are into and they're making blockbuster movies at it. So our one agreed upon topic is the thing that all of us are probably sick of talking to, which is why I'm happy to talk to you about it. I which is this SpaceX IPO. And this is just everywhere. It's in client conversations talking about index inclusion, fund flows, fund inclusion. If you have a fund that is pre IPO shares, if you have something that's going to be forced to buy it, that's every due diligence call of the last month or more of my life. And I can't help but think of the poor value analysts with their precious Shiller Cape ratios who are trying to wrap their brain around something that's going to IPO at a hundred times sales with no earnings and what that even means. But hey, the TAM is space and time ad infinitum. So what could go wrong? What could go wrong?

[A]

Look of the Ben Graham book being put into the garbage.

[B]

This is that meme. That's what should have been on the COVID of the S1. So, number one consensus, are we all sick of talking about SpaceX?

[C]

Oh God, so sick of it. So sick of it already. But I guess we're doing one more time.

[B]

We're doing one more. I'm treating this as a therapy session. Yes, there we go. One more time. Well, Cameron, I mean, so I know in my life it's the client questions, due diligence. It's just all the stuff about this. What's the dominant theme with SpaceX in your life right now?

[A]

Well, I mean, obviously there's a few observations. The first one is the degree of access and all the different access points from which we've seen it over a long period of time. And, and this has been going on for a couple of years. And, and it speaks to that, that broader theme of if you want exposure to something, you can't just think about it from the investment case, you also have to think about the structuring of that exposure. And that's really important when we're thinking about these pre IPO shares because one of the things we were really trying to be ultra clear on is that if you were thinking this is just a quick flip to be able to take advantage of an IPO pop, as we had an IPO today that did pop, that you won't be able to take advantage of that necessarily because of all the lockup restrictions and to be aware that there's all these different stages of the lockup restrictions that expire. And understanding where you sit, then it's a conversation of fees and making sure that you fully understand that if you're trying to get it in some more complex ways that the fee structure is not something that's so onerous that starts to make it unattractive. And then the last portion is, is just trying to have a realistic conversation about what's being valued here and the actual price of, of, you know, what the, the moon, the stars and everything beyond. And that's where I think it's really interesting. If we're just looking at it from a price to sales basis, obviously we have to do that because there aren't any earnings. And you look at this 80 to 100 times range for price to sales and you. Some people say oh well, there's a great growth stock and, and of course like you can grow into it, but this is still a company that's large and will be as far as whether it's a. If we're just thinking about the market cap weight within the QS or the S&P 500 so you know, 80 to 100 times sales. If you screen the S&P 500 for all the names on a price to sales basis, still the most expensive name is Palantir in that that price to sales. And what's fascinating about Palantir is that it had its epic run as a stock over the course of the last. Not it's kind of been sideways to down over the course of the last year or so. But in the two to three years prior to that, what you saw is a ton of price to sales, multiple expansion. Effectively the market was astute. The market was saying we're going to get massive sales growth. And the market was right. Sales are Growing for this year, for this fiscal year, calendar year, sorry, 72%. And so when you traded at a 90 times price to sales back in the fall of last year and then you eventually got your 72% sales growth in 2026, what's been fascinating is that the stock has stalled out. So it priced in all of that sales potential in the 96 times price, 92 times price of sales that it, that it had reached back at the, at the peak in, in 20. So it's a word of not necessarily caution, but like historical wisdom just to say when you trade at such a high multiple, even if the great news happens, what tends to happen is you kind of hit a ceiling mostly of a stock of that size. The only caveat to say, and I'm sorry for this being so long, the only other caveat to say is that you have been in a world and Elon Musk's world of fundamentals not necessarily mattering for the way that the Tesla stock trades. So you've seen the 12 month forward earnings power for Tesla since 2022 fall by nearly 2/3 in that time. And yet the valuation multiple has gone up. Gone from being a high valuation multiple to being over a hundred times earnings because the stock has continued to move higher. So all of that to say is that valuations you actually do matter, even for growth stocks. As I just went through the Palantir example, we have to take it with a grain of salt because it hasn't applied in the Muskian realm.

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[C]

yeah, I think that covers covers the boundaries of the story. I think the piece that I find most frustrating here is that there are really two components to the story. There's the overhyped growth stock coming into a hot market, which is just a story we've seen before. Whether it was Tesla or whether it was stuff in the 90s like we get that things can get ahead of themselves and there's a lot of narrative manipulation that goes on around that so that that feels actually somewhat normal. What's abnormal here is the size and the impact on the capital markets, right? Having a company this big come to market with such a small float and accelerated index inclusion, because everybody has rolled over on that front, means that we've now got these very strange gates. Just from a capital market structure standpoint, to heck with whether you think SpaceX is a good company or not. Just the trading widget that we're going to move around is going to have bizarre and I would say very unpredictable supply and demand components for at least the first 30 days. I mean everybody's talked about the NASDAQ 100 buying 15 days after. And everybody knows that multi billion dollar trade's coming, which it's always bad when the street everybody knows something because everybody tries to pre position and it just adds volatility. There's no real price discovery that happens, that's bad enough. But then we've already got this weird cascade of we're already trading perps on the IPO price today outside the US so people are already doing price setting for the IPO. The IPO is going to price and supposedly the $75 billion in shares will start trading and everybody will start trying to inventory that for the mandatory buyers of the indexes. So we've got that classic speculation front running Russell 2000 rebalance trade effectively going on there and a lot of people want to get short this. And three days after it goes public we're going to get the options trading and all of a sudden all of that basis is going to have to find someplace to unload again in the same $75 billion of floated stock. So the market dynamic stuff I find completely unpredictable. I've spent my whole career tracking it. I don't think you can create a case that says it should go up, it should go down because you've got to be. You're betting on people's positioning and we don't know what people are going to position. So we've got two things. We've got a very difficult to justify core IPO hype cycle and this very Strange market manipulation, capital markets problem that are all going to come to head in the same 30 day window. I made it very clear to my financial advisor I don't want to be on any side of this trade. I don't think that there is an edge to be had here. So I don't want to be long and I don't want to be short. I think this is a great one to sit out.

[B]

Will you spend a minute as a resident financial advisor on this call? You've been everybody's calling you to talk about this thing. I know it because I'm bugging you to talk about this thing and I think this is enlightening. Walk us through what you're talking about before the free float versus what's actually going to be in the S and P. What happens by taking the 12 month rule and moving it to 6 months? Just break down some of those things because I am still talking to people who I think have no clue about how this actually works.

[C]

Well, I mean I, I we can just run through what the numbers are. So let's t0 it'll get priced and you know, at 3 o' clock in the afternoon we'll see our first trade. Whatever, something will happen. The next thing that happens from a cap structure perspective is probably three days later the options start trading. Right? So that's another giant volatility vector which probably gives some relief on the short side, meaning people will be able to express a negative opinion. We might get something closer to rational price discovery. Five days later a percent or two of the float is going to get grabbed by smaller indexes and smaller products that have accelerated. Whether it's the IPO indexes that are specifically IPO indexes or the space indexes which have all accelerated their rules to get in in five days. Whether it's the Russell or the broader S and P complex which is going to accelerate. So you're then going to get that sort of smaller level of index buying which is going to be another percent ish across all of those various indexes on of the float that will have to get bought and then 15 days out SpaceX won't be included at its full capitalization at 1.75 trillion. The, the Nasdaq 100 has no free float adjustment in it by default. Meaning that, you know, if, if Apple is worth whatever a trillion dollars, that's what it's in the index at at that weight. Because they're accelerating SpaceX, they're adding for the first time a free float adjustment. So 4% of the company will be available. They're going to multiply that by three for arbitrary reasons. So it'll be a 12 as if it was 12%, not 4% floating. And they're going to adjust it down and then as shares unlock, which is going to happen I think a lot faster than people expect. Once they get to 33% floating, it will be as if they are just fully floated. So that, you know, that position that would be normally a couple percent of the index will show up as soon as we get about a third of it floating. So that's just the NASDAQ and sort of early index stuff. And then at six months we get the queues rebalancing again which will then probably have to recognize the then higher float from all those initial unlocks. So then the queues have to go back and buy another giant slug regardless of price at six months. So precisely when SpaceX is trying to get their six month earnings released and make that look as good as possible to get the maximum amount of unlock, we're going to get big insensitive buyers into the market at the same time.

[B]

Spend an extra second on Beautiful applause all around. Yes, nicely done. Nicely done, sir. The free float versus the actual market cap weighting and how that works at the index level.

[C]

Oh yeah, something like the S and P, which is free float adjusted, you know, the company will be worth, let's just call it $2 trillion. But if only, you know, 10% of the company is floating, it's included in the index as if it was a $200 billion company, not a $2 trillion company. The S and P and the MSCI and most of the Russells are free float adjusted. That's a pretty common institutional thing to do for precisely the reasons you would expect. If you're only floating 1% of the company, you can't possibly buy enough to put it in the index. So those are very rational institutional quality rules then. The 100 has always been a bit of a cowboy and therefore has never had any of these adjustments in it.

[B]

Okay, one more on that topic and then Cameron, I see the bubbling questions

[A]

are not a question, just a fun story that when I was writing the, the Coheed piece last week, the here to Mars piece, I was sitting in a coffee shop overhearing some guy bragging about his trades and how he owned like a bunch of the, the space etf. I mean like great, he's done, he's done really well this year. It's up like a hundred percent. He's like as soon as SpaceX goes public, then we're going to see this huge bid because everyone's going to realize how big this market is. It's going to be amazing. And I'm sitting here like writing this piece about speculation and the history of bubbles and I'm like, I'm getting my shoes shined. This is me getting my shoes shined.

[B]

This is the perennial misunderstanding of what this process and what Dave said at the beginning, what we're all saying. This is so frigging confusing. Nobody can predict what's going to happen here. So one more thing for you Dave, on flows in this whole thing. We've got a call it 75 billion ish dollar raise on the IPO itself with the unlocks to follow. But what are we looking at for flows for that first wave of buyers for the second, third, six months in wave of buyers? What do we think is looking to chase these shares?

[C]

I mean from a raw sort of index and products that are going to be tracking this stuff, you know, it's very tough to call. It's going to be something like 10% to 15% of the available shares in the first month are probably going to have to get acquired sort of again, price insensitive demand that just has to be in the index. Once you get out to the full index allocation, it starts looking more like 20%. Right. So you start getting out towards, you know, if you look at all the, you know, the, all the large cap stocks, they're generally owned roughly in the 20% range by passive. You would certainly expect that to be the case here as well.

[B]

Cameron, you want to talk through the history of bubbles at all? I feel like we have to pay some mind to this piece because I mean in the truest spirit of Click beta, we have a deep music nerd research report in the Wild people.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, well, you know, so one of my favorite books is a book by this duo named Quinn and Turner. They wrote a book back in 2020, 2021 timeframe called Boom and Bust and effectively it was a, a historical analysis of financial bubbles. And they have a very distinct framework for what a bubble is. And what's interesting is the bubbles that they looked at were specifically those that had broader economic implications on the upside and the downside. So for example, they didn't bother, they didn't not bother, but they didn't include in their analysis and their study of, of bubbles over time the tulip bubble for example, because it didn't have a broader economic impact, whereas they included, you know, bubbles like the bicycle bubble, the railroad bubble, the 1920s telecom radio bubble. Of course, the 1990s was a big look. And the framework that they use is taken from this framework called the bubble, the, what they call the bubble triangle, which is taken from the fire triangle. This idea of like, what are the things that are needed in order for there to be, to be a fire that breaks out? And it's, you know, the, the fuel, the, the oxygen, the, the, the spark that, that starts it. And so they break down the three components of the bubble triangle being three. The main things are marketability. So this is the access that people have to being able to trade. So when you see marketability get better, typically it coincides with a bubble. This can be a technology change. Like for example, back in the 1920s, the ability to use a telephone to call up your, your stockbroker versus having to actually go to the stock exchange and you know, wave things around that you were. That caused more in radio as well, that, that caused more trading, more ability for. Then the other component of it is speculation. There has to be some kind of cultural acceptance of speculation. And they define that as people making choices, investment choices, based on the idea that you will do a quick flip and just the expectation of the price going up, not actually buying into the fundamentals. So that's, you know, kind of like housing speculators, for example, of saying, I'm just going to buy this, not to live in it, but to, but to flip it at a higher price. And the last one is, is money and credit. Right? You need liquidity in order to have to have a bubble. So when you have those three components, the spark that usually causes the fire to break out or the conflagration to come is either government policy or technology. The government policy one is a little bit more rare. It's happened in places like China where they started to push people to be more involved in stock markets. And that kind of set off different kind of casino capitalism bubbles that they had. But the spark is oftentimes technology. And I think what's fascinating about this bubble book and the way and I included an excerpt from it in the piece is it talks about how every single technologically driven bubble has a real component to it. There are real earnings that come from the, the investment in this technology. So I went back and I said, well, what did intel and Cisco do in 1998-2000, kind of the peak of the bubble? Because everybody says, you know, you say, no, it's not a bubble. Cause there's earnings and look how great the earnings are. I'm like, yeah, the earnings are amazing. I get that. However, look at the 12 month forward earnings estimates for intel and Cisco. They were up over 100% each in 1998-2000. There were real earnings that happened. Now of course, there was real speculation that happened. You had your pets.com of the world and, and you're paying, you know, you know, paying for eyeballs and clicks and the whole, you know, the whole shenanigans on that front. But to say that what we're experiencing today does not have bubble like characteristics because there are earnings ignores the long historical record that anytime there is a technology driven bubble, there are always real earnings. It's just that we're pulling those earnings into the future and we're pulling those words, those earnings into today. So we're taking from the future into today and then we're pulling returns from the future into today. And that's what makes it have this dynamic where returns are greater today than they will be in forward years in any bubble type scenario. So you know, it's just, it's an interesting kind of push back to the. No, everything's fine. Don't worry about every, don't worry about anything because there's earnings actually that happens every single time. But one last point, which is, call it, calling something a bubble is very different than calling it a top. You can acknowledge the speculative behavior, you can acknowledge the low quality ness of certain things. You can acknowledge the pull forward without saying that, you know, like the All American rejects. It ends tonight, right?

[C]

The liquidity one's a really interesting angle because it would be easy to say, well, there's just, we're just drowning in cash because I mean, it does feel like we're just drowning in liquidity. But you start looking at things like swap rates on equities and those have come way up. We're like over a 1% spread on SOFR now. Just like very recently it was like 30, 40 bips. So clearly there's some tightening going on in the more speculative parts of the market, like say people who are trying to get overnight swaps and things like that. And you know, the question everybody always asks is, well, where's all the money going to come from to buy these, you know, $150 billion worth of IPOs we've got coming down the pike over the next year? It has to come from somewhere. I think that's a legitimate question because we do see in some of the rate markets some evidence of tightening happening organically and you know, we certainly have seen in the private credit space, people are running for the exits a little bit there. People are hitting the 5% gates and they're having to slow people down on some of these. So I'm wondering whether or not the sort of surprising restriction and liquidity might actually tamp some of this down.

[B]

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[A]

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[C]

Yeah.

[B]

And in that historical analog like this is the kind of behavior. I just want to really put the sharpie highlighter, everything on this. In prior bubble situations, what you see is the framework is all there for stuff to be looking pretty good. Like doesn't have to look great, but like earnings are healthy, cash flows seem good, there's enough liquidity, there's maybe there's not too much, but there's enough to keep blowing this thing further and that, that can extend the behavior. That's one of the other takeaways from looking at these bubbles. Right. Because I'm thinking about this in terms of yes, SpaceX now, but anthropic OpenAI blah blah blah like this could extend. We might be living surface tension can take you so far.

[C]

I think that there's plenty of room for this to continue for the next three years. Like I think it's very tough to say that that's how it feels.

[B]

This has to.

[C]

At a certain point in time I can absolutely create a very credible, you know, in the middle of the bell curve scenario where SpaceX comes out at 1.75 and trades up to 3 trillion over the next 24 months and has a series of big wins and everybody gets on board and we get all the unlocks out of the way and it's sitting as the largest company in the S&P 502 three years from now. And with, with Variant, like absolutely, we could have that path. I can also create a path where we have a 50% sell off next week. I mean there, this is nothing but a volatility enhancer in my book.

[B]

Any thought on that, Cameron?

[A]

Yeah, look, I think that, you know, we, we've taken this stance of being early is the equivalent of being wrong and that it, what this moment requires is a great deal of discipline to know that you may not capture all of the upcycle like you may not capture all the upside in the silliest parts of the market, but you have, if you have a five year plus time horizon, you know, to Dave's point that all this does is introduce volatility within a portfolio. It doesn't introduce necessarily incremental return. And this is why if you look at the long run studies about quality as a factor, what you find is that you actually see quality have lower volatility and higher returns over long windows. Because what you miss is the, the ascent of the, of the rocket up and descent down on the other side. And what we've seen, and we obviously saw it in 21, the last kind of silly time that we had, 20 to 21, if you were invested in low quality, you were an absolute genius in 2020. And then 2021, you end up reversing all of that outperformance through 22. And it started to come back. But obviously that didn't like having that kind of allocation in a portfolio didn't add any incremental return. All it did was add volatility. So I think, you know, it, it's our, it's our obligation to have that sort of steady hand through all of this to say, look, there are great, exciting technologies and there are real things that are being driven by all of these advancements and technologies, but we can't completely lose all of our religion and all of our discipline and ignoring, you

[C]

know, let, let me ask you to then, because you guys have, I don't have to deal with this, but you have real clients, right? You have actual wealthy families that entrust you or at least ask your opinions about what they should be doing. So what do you tell a client who's coming in who is very bullish on SpaceX and is looking to get an allocation, or maybe he already has an allocation from some pre IPO vehicle. You're talking about, you know, having to have those conversations to calm people down. But, but also people get attached to these things and they have real belief in them. So how do you, in an advisory position, balance those things out? Because if a client comes to you and says, I want 10% of my portfolio in Space X, are you going to tell them to go find another advisor?

[B]

So if a client wants 10% and this is a client who wants any percent. So first off, having conversations with people, you are going to own this whether you chose to or not. Unless you're Dave Nautic. Because Dave Nautic has already called into the office and said, exclude this from all my things. So most people, if you own that index fund or if you own that ETF or you have some type of allocation of. It might be via the. You use some type of direct indexing tool and you're targeting growth or tech or quality even in some cases, and you're going like, how is this going to factor into the underlying index that I'm supposed to be buying? Or you own the S&P 500, or you own the QS or you own some weird niche thematic ETF in some corner, your portfolio so the first question is I want to, I want to own this or I want to participate in the ipo. Let's also talk about where are you going to own it already now, if you want to own more, let's talk about to what extent, because now we have to go through the exercise of how do you get out of this? What's the max amount of exposure you feel comfortable with? I'm going to go through all those risks with you. I'm going to talk about the crazy valuation, I'm going to talk about what flows could and probably won't do to this thing and talk about the chaos that is going to be being a share owner in this thing for the next however long. Maybe it's the greatest thing ever. Maybe it does conquer the known living universe. Maybe that's where this goes. Maybe President Elon makes this the new GDP of the solar system. I don't know. So if you want that exposure, you should also have the plan that says lessen this on the way up. And what's interesting is for a lot of people who have interest in larger allocations, they have, or they're just weighing it, should I do this? Because they're looking at some other success they had previously and that's always the gateway to the conversation. You knocked it out of the park with Apple, Amazon, Nvidia. Pick your mag7 of choice. Somebody had a grand slam. Whether they worked for something, they bought a good amount early, or they owned Micron, or they owned one of these other companies and it went up a ton of money. And it's like, do you think you're going to win that lottery twice? Number one and number two, you're uncomfortable with some of this now. What do we need to do to pre commit to. Even if you want to have this allocation and you get it, how do we start unwinding it, talking to some institutions, talking to some other investors who are trying to wade through this with private shares that they own. And it's really like, well, what's our unwind strategy? And let's talk about that over a five year period, let's talk about, okay, let's say it goes as well as you hope it goes. What are you going to do when according to some crazy projection somebody just threw on the table that this is 10, 20, 50% of your fund? What if it's bigger than your whole fund because you think this is going to take over the world? It'd be a $27 trillion market cap thing. You have to think through that and I think that's the only answer that I have as an advisor is just helping people rationalize through. Okay, let's say you get what you want now what?

[A]

And I think the last part is structuring is. Structuring is very important, which is that you don't have to make a value based judgment whether or not something is a good investment or not. But saying let's do it in a safe way, let's do it in a transparent way, let's make sure you're not in like one of these fake SPBs that they say they're on the cap table but they actually aren't. Like there's a lot of the ones

[B]

who are texting me like literal text message and WhatsApp scams over this stuff where. Oh God, I'm horrified.

[C]

I every single day I have gotten a text message offering me SpaceX exposure in some random way which I'm sure is all BS.

[A]

Why do you get offered SpaceX exposure? And I just get phone calls about my car insurance and I've never owned a car.

[C]

Business loans, I'm regularly offered at least a quarter million dollar business loan for a business I don't have.

[B]

Business loans. Personal loans. Yeah, forget it. Basics insurance, Zoe's insurance, it's all coming. They're all legitimate, I'm sure. But I think to your point, it's, it's. What is the safe approach to now doing this thing? So you want to try ayahuasca? Can we do it in a controlled environment? That's how this feels.

[C]

Well, I mean it sounds like this is prime time for advisors earning their keep. Right? Because like thank God your clients have somebody like you to have that conversation with because somebody else is just pushing buy or sell without thinking about any

[B]

or jamming it down, jamming it down people's throats. I have just, I have like trauma from working with a few hedge funds on IPO strategies previously in my career that participate in this stuff. And I visceral memories of like the Facebook IPO and some other things that we went through and watching them burn through that green shoe and what's going to happen and fights with compliance over what people are trying to do and it's. I can't even imagine the size and the scale of this one and it's going to be. We got front row seats. This is, let's take this, let's take this elsewhere. You got some good surprise topics for me. I have something totally non markets related.

[C]

I have something totally non markets related. I have a question. Excellent here's my question. It's. We're heading it. We're in June now in New England. This is sort of like prime time. Summer, June, July, August, everybody's got their places. I have never once in my life gone anywhere prime season. And this year we won a thing in an auction where we're going like out on the Cape in July, which is like never in a million years would I do that. Do you guys have any place or are you fans of going at peak season anywhere?

[A]

I'm from Orlando, like my life.

[B]

You live in peak season.

[C]

Peak season is all the time.

[A]

Um, I. No, I mean, I'm always trying to find a place that is like not the most popular at exactly that time. I am viscerally allergic to a scene, so I cannot go to a place where it is a scene place.

[C]

No, no. It be the raves for you.

[A]

No, unfortunately not. But I usually do take some kind of holiday in August. But I think that there's always. There's in. In even the most sceny place, there's always a place that will be a respite for you can to avoid the max crowds, the mass crowdedness. But I will say one thing that just grinds my gears these days, which is that, you know, we always talk about we have like the death of the monoculture because of all these different pockets that people can live in. I think TikTok in some ways is actually making the real world more monocultural because people see, ooh, I have to go to this spot, I have to go to that spot, whether it's on Instagram or TikTok. And then you see these massive lines for something that might be delicious, but

[C]

it's always like a donut shop or something too. It's always something very narrow.

[B]

We talked about the lady, the bad bunny, super bowl lady, the old lady at the bar, that. That thing.

[A]

Yeah, Tonita.

[B]

Tonita. I've had friends who are like, this place is great and we can never go there again because Instagram has made it. Yeah, I love. I actually think this is an underappreciated point. And I do have a place for you, Dave, that we are more monoculture. TikTok and the Internet have far exceeded MASH in my book because I can be on the sidelines at a youth flag football game and realizing that kids from all walks of life are all using the same language to talk to each other and describe. There is no. I miss regional slang. And I feel like the Internet is ruining regional slang in front of my eyes with all sorts of ways that this, this whole generation uses the same ways, means of communication in a sense that I don't think we've ever had before. And it's, it's breaking my brain a little bit.

[C]

Yeah, I think that's fair. But where's your place? You said you had a place.

[B]

All right, I got a place. And it's actually, it's a favorite off season and on season place, which I hadn't really thought about it this way before, but it's so Ocean City, New Jersey. It's one of my favorite places in the world. Kind of like the Cape in the beach town in the summer thing. My wife and I, we spent my 40th birthday, I spent there. Like that's where I wanted to be in the middle of December is I wanted to see the sunrise on the ocean, the sunset on the bay, in my happy place. I love it. And my wife grew up going there as a kid, like we both are. We both went there independently as children. And it's a special place we'll go. My brother who lives in Europe is going to visit this summer with his family and all of us will descend on it for a week in mid summer.

[C]

Peak season.

[B]

Peak season. There'll be way too many people there. It'll be chaos. But there's something about to what you said, Cameron, where it's like there's the chaos of nighttime on the boardwalk in peak season is just a beautiful thing. It's chaos, it's unbridled, just madness on the Jersey shore. It's great because it's a dry town. That's actually my favorite part about it. So you don't have drunks everywhere. I mean there are drunks everywhere because that's every town anywhere. But it's not. You can't buy a beer on the boardwalk, which really changes the dynamic and the family friendliness of it. But then you can go to the beach during the day and all you have to do is just go a series of blocks down from where the boardwalk ends or where the stores and the rides are and you're, you're just on a great beach. I mean a great New Jersey beach, which is pretty much a subpar beach by every other definition, but it's a special place. And so I, I am so excited to go there peak season, even though that comes with all the things that peak season come. But then I'll be back there. I'll be back there in November or December and I'll be thrilled. Walking around with everything closed.

[A]

My grandmother Would go to Ocean city in the 40s and the 50s and dry town, and they would. She would talk about how occasionally they would stop people going over the bridge into town and check their trunk to make sure that they weren't bringing things. Anything in, even to their. In it. To their houses. But she said you'd be leaving town, you'd be leaving on a Sunday afternoon, and you'd see all the beer bottles, like, flowing out of the garbage. And so, yeah, she loves. She loved the place.

[B]

It's a special place we stayed when I was a kid. So my grandparents had a place where they would camp. Like, you'd pitch a tent. And it was across, not the big, beautiful bridge, the smaller bridge, like, halfway down the island. And right on the other side, there's, like, a giant super liquor store that's right there. And so it would literally be. We like my vacations as a kid, we stayed in a trailer park, you know, two miles off island and down the road. But it was those. Those trips, like, with the family over the bridge on the way home, you stopped to pick up the beer and have a fire outside of the trailer and hanging out with the people. And it's just. Those are cherished memories. And I'm not surprised, as a proper Philadelphia sports fan, she would take the Jersey shore route for her vacations.

[C]

Love it.

[B]

It's a beautiful thing. What do you got? You got anything good for us? Wait, Dave, you excited for this trip?

[C]

Oh, I'm very excited for this trip. It's just. It's very unusual. I never go anywhere in peak season. I am. I am even perhaps more allergic to a scene than Cam.

[A]

I don't know. I don't know. I. I have a very strict rule, if I'm ever in Miami, which I get pulled down there for work, that I refuse to eat or go to a place that has any sparklers in any bottle, any food. If it's a restaurant and there's a sparkler in it, I will say, absolutely not. I'm not going. I'd rather eat at a taco stand. It's just not for me. But you do. You and, you know, go spend your thousand dollars on a piece of crappy steak.

[B]

Safety first. Safety first. What do you got, Cameron? You got anything good for us?

[A]

Well, I. You know, I've been listening, obviously, to a lot of Coheed, and I love Coheed as one does, and I've loved Coheed since I was a teenager. Devil in New Jersey, of course, being a great album for the Second stage, Turbine Blade or song from that. From their second album. And I'm going to see them in Jersey in July. And my bone to pick is that they're opening, being the amazing band that they are with an incredible, incredible depth of, like, amazing pop metal songs. Like. And, like, every album has bangers on it for. For decades. And they're opening for Shinedown. And, like, there's. And, like, this is no hate on Shinedown, but, like. Like, Shinedown has, like, two songs.

[C]

I don't. I don't really think that they have two good songs. I mean, they have one good video that's a cover. Like, that's the one everybody knows.

[A]

And I, like. I don't mean to, like, be offensive to. But, like, I. So sometimes I, you know, I. Upside down.

[C]

The bill's upside down. I understand.

[A]

It's in a big. It's a big tour. And. And it's at. It's at the Prudential center, so it's like. It's a. It's a big arena kind of tour, but they. They're just opening. So I'll be there alone in my dinky little seat, you know, like, screaming to, like, a favor House Atlantic, and, like, nobody will be around because it's not a co. Heat show, It's a Shinedown show. So. Sorry, it's not a question. Not much to engage, but sometimes you have these bills that are flipped and that, you know, that makes me sad.

[C]

Have you. Have you seen them do full albums in concert before? Like, full concept albums? Because I love it when a band does. Like, one of my favorite concerts ever was Flaming Lips doing Yeshimi Battles, the Pink Robots start to finish. Phenomenal at Boston Calling, like, three years ago. Just one of my favorite. Or the Proto Men, if you know. The Proto Men, like, all their stuff are giant concept albums, too. I think it's the best. And I agree. If you're gonna have your full concept album concert, you're not the opening act. You're clearly not the opening act.

[A]

We'll just play. We'll play the hits. They'll play stuff from other, you know, from a bunch of different albums. I saw them open for Incubus and it was a similar situation, which is, you know, all the Incubus fans were, you know, hanging out and, you know, buying merch. And then, like, I'm sitting there alone, like, absolutely screaming my brains off to welcome Home. It's just, you know, I, like, I wish. And I guess they did. I just haven't seen them do a tour where they headline and I, I would just, I want people to, to appreciate good music more. That's all I'm saying.

[B]

Do they play out that often anymore though, or is this, this is kind of an event for them. How much are they touring and playing around these days?

[A]

They tour every year.

[B]

Yeah, every year they do something.

[A]

I see their name on players, so you know they're still working. It's not like they're not working.

[B]

You can always be surprised though. I've been to, I've been to shows where there's been like an opening act that has a shocking amount of turnout. I've had that experience.

[C]

Other than Coheed, like any, Anybody have a big concert or a big tour they're going to this year? This summer?

[A]

I'm doing both shows because I love the Meat World and those albums like Bleed American, they're playing that whole album in full because it's the 25th anniversary. I think of Bleed American, which is a little bit daunting. But yeah, I'm super excited for that. Weezer's doing their big show, I think, with the Shins, which is going to be awesome in September. Tomorrow morning is knocking. Stock your fridge now. How about a creamy mocha Frappuccino drink? Or a sweet vanilla smooth caramel maybe? Or a white chocolate mocha? Whichever you choose, delicious coffee awaits. Find Starbucks Frappuccino drinks wherever you buy your groceries.

[B]

Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same Premium Wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities. So do like I did and have one of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to [e-mail]

[A]

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[B]

man, yeah. Never seen the Shins. That was one that I remember trying to see a couple of times and it didn't work out. But that'd be a fun.

[C]

Everything I wanted to see this summer is the wrong weekend in the wrong place. So like, I literally don't think I'm going to see a band all summer long, which is killing me.

[A]

Come to foot. Come to New York. Come on.

[B]

Come to New York. Go see Cam Cohen. Cambria. I know the one. I'm excited. I know we're going to see Bikini kill. I know we, like, locked down, gotten ro. That was a. Not a bucket list item, but just one of those where it's like, if I could see bikini and. Yeah. And if I can. If I can make sure my wife sees bikini. Keel and. Or latigra and. Or a few other things. Just any little micro chance that we get to say, oh, let's go do that, because there's. There's a lot of good stuff going on. That's the amazing thing, too.

[C]

Pavements playing in Chicago in two weeks. I mean, come on. There's so many bands that are on tour this year. It's great. And it's just every. Every place I'm going, I'm missing it.

[B]

Well, that's what you get for going places. So speaking of things that are not going places, La Casa Ziglar got a new car this last week, and one of the weirdest things about the new car is cleaning out the old car. And I had this moment, and I didn't know what I was going to do for this. And so right before we were recording, I'm looking around the office. I'm like, oh, crap, I got to come up with something. And I'm looking at this pile, which is. I think it's the pile of CDs that's moved from my car from probably 19, I'm guessing late 90s through present

[C]

and all in one, one thing.

[B]

No, no. These are, like, when we migrated from the giant CD books to only what would fit in a center console of. In some cases, a smaller car, and then whatever. So there were like, maybe 10 random CDs in the center of the car, and they are. And it's a weird time. It's a weird time capsule. I'm not gonna. I won't go through the entire stack, but I'm gonna give you. I got five here for you. So we have the absolute best of Al Green.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

Which this is still my go to.

[C]

No notes. No notes at all.

[B]

What's that? No notes.

[C]

No notes.

[B]

That's great. Timeless. And on streaming, this is, like, still the collection that I always am looking for when I want to listen to it, which I also realized in the CD. Like, this 2.2CD set is exactly what I want when I want to put on some Al Green. I have the great New York regional act, the Scofflaws. Scott. Hi, Fi. This was a classic. Very, very good.

[A]

Very on brand for you.

[B]

Yes, very on brand for me. Lots of great store. There is a song and a video for Nude beach, which is Possibly one of my favorite Barry Sack songs of all time. And the video is. It's worth your time. There's no nudity, it was on tv. But it's. It is a quality music video.

[A]

My favorite description of Scott is that it's the music that plays in a 13 year old's head when he's eating

[B]

mozzarella sticks or chicken nuggets. It's one of those two.

[C]

Oh, that's perfect.

[B]

Yeah, it's. It's exactly that. It's exactly that.

[C]

That's great.

[B]

And I'm shuffling the deck for this just because it's related and I love this. So this was Rancid's Life Won't Wait, which is post, which I will still stand as one of the best actual Rancid albums. I think this is great. They have the success of Outcome, the Wolves, they go to Jamaica, they record this. I mean the other features that are on this album are just ridiculous. Shout out to Vicar Giro from the slackers who ended up in the band and record some of these. O I gotta plug the amoeba music sticker. Like I must have gotten this used at an amoeba at some point somewhere in the 90s. Another classic, the Reverend Horton Heat. Oh yeah, Love Love Me. Probably one of my favorite guitar players, I don't think fair. So this is my opinion of. Not just psychobilly and the rockabilly stuff I love but there's a certain southern quality of, you know, where in the hell did you go with my toothbrush? That makes it one of my favorite country ballads ever. Really makes me happy. And then of course I've got a. I've got. There were multiple De La Soul albums in there because they weren't on streaming so they didn't even survive the ipod. The ipod transition was the only thing that could replace them. So stakes as high was hanging out in there just because a lot of. A lot of like 97, 98 energy. So I'm just curious, does any of the stuff like this exist in your car still? Cameron, you've already established there's no car in your life.

[A]

I. I've never owned a car in my entire life.

[B]

Amazing.

[C]

Shocking. So what would the equivalent be? Do you have like an old ipod sitting in a drawer?

[A]

I do have an old ipod sitting in a drawer and yeah, I should find it. And I bet it's amazing because I used to find like interesting covers of songs and stuff that you'd never find on Spotify. That'd be actually a really fun exercise.

[C]

I. The Closest I can come to that. I don't have, like, I have vinyl, but I don't have CDs or any anything anymore. I gave up that a long time ago. But I did find. Maybe six months ago, I found an underwater MP3 player from back when I was doing triathlons in like 2010 maybe, so like 15 years old. And I. I managed to like charge it back up and put stuff and see what was on it because I don't keep MP3s around anymore. Right. I stream everything and it was the wildest collection of like mid-90s mediocre grunge bands and like post punk bands that like, half of them I don't even remember. Like, it was. It was. Love it. The worst playlist I had ever made. And I don't know why it's sitting there on that podcast on that MP3 player, but it's just truly forgettable. You know, grunge bands from the 90s, it was, you know, like the most thing that you'd ever heard of. Maybe there was a Stone Temple pilot song on it and that was the one thing you'd remember.

[A]

So I'm writing my. My weekly piece and it's. I'm using I Alone by Live and

[B]

the title, Shout Him Out.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

So the, the opening line of it is writing a piece about how strong earnings are and how much they're driven by AI is like trying to release a grunge album in the mid-90s. Everyone's doing hurts. I was writing that opening line right before, before coming in.

[B]

So the running joke was so number one. They're a Pennsylvania band, so they had good lore in the area. Just as being semi local boys and being. It wasn't Latrobe. Do you remember. Do you know what town they were from? Does anybody remember? Latrobe is where Rolling Rock was from. And they were from baseball. I remember that. I feel like, yeah, good old.

[C]

From the. From the glass line task. Latrobe, Pennsylvania.

[B]

So we had. There was a girl in my, whatever, mid middle school, probably class and she had so number one, a lot of Polish kids around where I grew up. And so with the last name like Kowalkowitz, it was just like, well, we all pronounce that name, but looks like gobbledygook. So she really took kindly to the singer of Live. And she had a necklace, but it just said Ed K. And we used to harass her all the time while she didn't have beads for all the letters to this name because it'd be a much Larger necklace. But it is fun, though. The stuff that didn't exist, like the De La Soul stuff that wasn't on streaming. I had a bunch of. We won't go through it, but I have like these like old, like. Like rap mix things that existed in New York City that God knows where I got them from or who I got them from.

[C]

It's coming back too. Like, Panda Bear just dropped. Panda Bear and Sonic Boom just dropped their latest thing in vinyl. Only, like, literally they're not streaming it anywhere you like. You could. You have to rip it and put it in your own MP3 player. I love it.

[B]

Like, I can't wait to put this on. On a CD player. I don't even. I have to figure out if my new car has a CD player just so I have one, because I don't know if I have any.

[C]

I have no device in my house that will play a cd. Like my. No computer won't drive nothing.

[B]

Yeah, I have an old tape deck with a box of tapes and whatever else.

[C]

I have a tape deck. I got a. I got a turntable, but I have.

[B]

It's not hooked up to anything. I gotta figure that part out.

[A]

But one of my Gen Z friends made a tape mixtape, like an actual mixtape for his crush. I was like, that's the cutest thing in the world.

[C]

Did he also give them a. Like a cassette player to play it on?

[A]

Nope.

[B]

They got to figure that part out. Did they write liner notes? This is important.

[A]

That's a good question. I want.

[C]

Really should come with a whole zine.

[B]

Like this should come with a whole zine.

[C]

Quarter page zine fits right there in the sleeve.

[A]

As the zine expert. Yeah, yeah.

[B]

If you can do it. Were either of you big liner notes writers to your. To your mixtapes or mix CDs of choice? Oh, yeah, yeah, same. Were you? No, not at all.

[A]

I don't have the focus for that.

[B]

Did you even write?

[C]

I still write Blog post to go. To go with playlists.

[B]

I didn't have to ask you that question. You're in the same affliction as I had that stuff. Were you? Were you. Track listing.

[A]

I tracked I track list. Yeah, yeah. On my burned CDs.

[C]

But no, no poetry.

[A]

No.

[B]

We always would do.

[A]

I was a nerd in homeschooled high school. Come on.

[C]

Like, who are you gonna give it to?

[B]

Yeah, yeah, we would do the. When you would make a mix for your friends, your friends would actually ask you for a mix. It was in the era of the visors, you know, in the cars. And so the trick was to always write either the most offensive or suggestive thing on the outside of the rip CD cover so that somebody else or their parent would get into the car and be like oh my God why? That became a horrible game, many of which I still have of like the mix CDS we would give each other and the stupid stuff that we would write on them to get a rise out of people. I I am happy to hear these parts of the culture are coming back and maybe slightly less so for a SpaceX IPO Dave people to bug you on the Internet. Where should we send them?

[C]

Avenodding pretty much everywhere. ETF.com for ETF stuff nautic.com for nautic

[B]

stuff Cameron where should we send them?

[A]

Cameron Dawson Everywhere you'll find it. Except that there is an English footballer also named Cameron Dawson. So just, you know, pick the chick one.

[C]

Not the English, not the English footballer.

[B]

Not the English footballer. Cameron DAWSON yes, the ETF.com or Electric Boogaloo Part 2 Dave Notig I'm Matt Sigler. You're watching Excess Returns. Like Comment subscribe all the things below and we are out. Thank you for tuning in to this episode. If you found this discussion interesting and valuable, please subscribe on your favorite audio platform or on YouTube. You can also follow all the podcasts in the Excess returns [e-mail] if you have any feedback or questions, you can contact [e-mail] no information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts, or you can't reason with the sun.

[C]

Trust us, we've tried. This summer, it's time to put that angry ball of fire on mute. Columbia's Omnishade technology is engineered to protect you from the sun's harsh rays that can burn and damage your skin. The sun is relentless, but so is our gear. Level up your [e-mail] to spend more time outside and less time slathering on aloe lotion.

[B]

You're welcome.

[C]

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[B]

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