Excess Returns Podcast Episode Summary

Episode: "The Truth No One Sees | 41 Great Investors Share Their Most Controversial Belief"
Hosts: Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau, Matt Zeigler
Date: December 28, 2025

Overview

This unique episode of Excess Returns compiles responses from 41 esteemed investors and market thinkers as they reveal their most controversial investment beliefs—ideas they feel most of their peers would disagree with. With each belief, listeners are exposed to diverse perspectives on investing—from macroeconomic trends and market structure to personal investing philosophies and the role of technology. The conversation aims to challenge mainstream assumptions and encourage listeners to think independently about long-term investing.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Gold, Money, and Macro Paradigms

• Gold’s Comeback as Money

  • Some guests assert that the era of paper money is a “failed experiment,” predicting gold will reclaim its role as a recognized form of money.
    • “The historical cycle...in which paper money reigns supreme, will be seen as a failed experiment...I think gold is coming back...as a form of money that is acknowledged as such.” (00:45, Guest)

• Misunderstood Effects of Quantitative Easing

  • Contention that QE is always pro-growth and inflationary, even if inflation was not immediately evident post-2008 due to other disinflationary forces.
    • “I believe that quantitative easing is always pro growth and inflationary, despite the fact that everyone looks at...2008 and...2018 and sees that there was no inflation.” (01:08, Guest)

2. Critique of Consensus Market Practices

• Futility of Year-End Price Targets

  • Traditional Wall Street exercises like year-end price targets offer little value to individual investors and are mostly for institutional self-congratulation.
    • “My peers in traditional Wall street feel that there's some value in year end price targets. I think it's such a dumb exercise.” (01:15, Cameron Passmore)

• Stock Market is Ownership, Not a Horse Race

  • Many treat markets as a game of bets rather than an exchange of business ownership, losing sight of what investing represents.
    • “Most investors...think of the stock market as a horse race. It’s more like somebody owning Seabiscuit...It is an exchange of corporate ownership.” (05:41, Guest)

• Skepticism of Macro Investing’s Value

  • Focused fundamental (micro) analysis with a long-term horizon is deemed far superior to attempting to predict macro, which rarely yields actionable or valuable insight.
    • “I don't know if I've ever heard anybody say something about the Fed that actually ended up...creating value for shareholders.” (07:10, Guest)

3. Dividend Investing and Popular Narratives

• Dividends: Overhyped for Narrative, Underwhelming After-Tax

  • Dividends are not always the optimal path, especially in high-tax jurisdictions. Reinvesting dividends matters, but high-dividend strategies might not be best.
    • “If you did a value tilt and targeted no yielding or low yielding stocks, you ended up with a higher after tax return...than high dividend yield or the broad market.” (10:12, Guest)

• Valuations are Over-Emphasized, Especially at the Margins

  • Valuations matter at extremes, but too much energy is wasted splitting hairs about fairly “normal” P/Es.
    • “I think people spend way too much thinking about valuations when they're not that far from historical.” (13:39, Guest)

4. Alpha, Market Predictability, and Investment Complexity

• Alpha is Elusive, Even Non-Existent Long-Term

  • Belief that sustainable long-term alpha hardly exists; combining diverse betas is more realistic.
    • “I don't believe alpha exists over the long term. I believe you can combine interesting betas.” (15:05, Guest)

• Overcomplexity in Investing Is Overrated

  • Simple strategies and clear theses often outperform convoluted models and excessive research.
    • “If the business makes sense, you can explain it in a simple sentence. If you cannot, I choose not to own it.” (44:39, Guest)

• Sharpe Ratio and Diversification Dogma Critiqued

  • Over-reliance on measures like Sharpe Ratio and “optimal” diversification distracts from the need to find outlier trades and let profits run.
    • “We pretend that we're really big into diversification ... but we're really trying to find outlier trades.” (20:37, Guest)

5. Actions, Cycles, and Market Participation

• Cycles Are Not Inevitable — Human Action Shapes Markets
  • Citing Goodhart’s Law, the idea that metrics lose relevance once tracked, and that cycles occur due to active choices—not passive inevitabilities.
    • “We've become so passive as a society...If you don't act, the cycle's gonna be different and it's probably gonna be worse.” (16:10, Guest)

6. Technical Analysis & Price Management

• Technical Analysis and Managing Risk by Price
  • Some defend technicals as essential for risk management, despite skepticism; others believe top-down application of technicals is legitimate.
    • “I really believe that you have to manage risk with technicals with price and build conviction with fundamentals.” (26:13, Guest)

7. Buy-and-Hold and Minimizing Activity

• Hands-Off Investing Over Constant Trading

  • High activity—trimming, adding, trading for the sake of it—is less effective than buying and holding great businesses even as they rise.
    • “I'm much less active. And I think people would disagree with that a lot... You're probably just better off just leaving [great companies] alone.” (23:47, Guest)

• Missed Rallies: A Stock Doubling Isn’t the End

  • Buying after a stock has already surged is not a mistake if fundamentals and cash flows justify it.
    • “If a stock has doubled or even tripled, you haven’t missed it.” (24:24, Guest)

8. Role of Options and Market Structure

• Options Are the Underlying (Not Derivatives)

  • As options markets grow, the speaker argues they more fully reflect the probability distribution of outcomes and will become the core of investing.
    • “Options are not a derivative. They are the underlying... options will be the primary way to invest in the future.” (38:06, Guest)

• Tariffs Don’t Matter That Much

  • Contrary to widespread belief and political rhetoric, tariffs are overemphasized in market impact.
    • “Tariffs don't matter that much... we are against free trade now. So I think we're in for a little bit of a dark time.” (41:27, Guest)

9. Technology, AI, and the Future of Investing

• AI Will Reshape Asset Management–But Not Replace All Human Tasks

  • Predicts a multi-trillion AUM AI-powered industry, but sees human competitive advantage persisting in creativity and empathy.
    • “About half of the tasks of an analyst today are better with large language models and half are with humans.” (61:17, Guest)

• Forecasting Markets: An Exercise in Hubris

  • Rejection of market forecasting as a worthwhile pursuit; allocation isn’t based on forecasts.
    • “You really can't forecast market and I think people would disagree with that... we're not going to allocate based on that.” (63:35, Guest)

10. Turnover, Asset Allocation, and Fees

• Turnover Is Strategy-Dependent

  • High turnover is not inherently bad—it must fit the underlying approach (e.g., momentum needs high turnover).
    • “Turnover should always be a reflection of the underlying strategy.” (52:26, Ben Felix)

• Asset Allocation Should Be Dynamic

  • Investors should not be afraid to make large asset allocation shifts when warranted, despite the taboo of “market timing.”
    • “We should be dynamic in our asset allocation and... even bigger changes can be warranted.” (33:11, Guest)

• Advisor Fees Should Be Unbundled

  • Asset management and financial advice are separate services and should be priced separately for transparency and fairness.
    • “Advisor fee should be advisor fee for advice and asset management fee should be fees for asset management. I believe there should be a separation of the two.” (48:37, Guest)

11. Multidisciplinary Approach & Personalization

• No Single Investing Discipline Holds All the Answers

  • The best investors synthesize multiple disciplines—macro, technical, behavioral, quantitative, and fundamental.
    • “I believe very strongly in a multidisciplinary approach to investing.” (49:42, Cameron Passmore)

• Investing Must Match Personality and Temperament

  • Emulation of famous investors is less important than finding a style suited to one’s own strengths and risk tolerances.
    • “You’ve got to craft your own...the only right answer is the one that’s right for your personality.” (30:33, Guest)

12. Closing Wisdom and Memorable Moments

• Poker vs. Investing—Outcome vs. Decision

  • Many conflate outcome with decision quality, underestimating the role of luck and the very high bar to produce success.
    • “You need to make great decisions 90% of the time or 95% of the time to have a measly 60% winner ratio.” (36:51, Guest)

• Be a Futurist, Not a Historian

  • Anchoring to history can blind investors to new realities and opportunities.
    • “We spend far too much time as historians and not nearly enough time as futurists.” (37:26, Cameron Passmore)

Selected Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Gold’s Future:
  “Gold is coming back...as a form of money that is acknowledged as such.” (00:45)

• On Alpha:
  “I don't believe alpha exists over the long term.” (15:05)

• Dividend Dogma:
  “Dividend investing is totally fine. Is it optimal? There are better choices.” (10:12)

• Forecasting Futility:
  “You really can't forecast market...we're not going to allocate based on that.” (63:35)

• On Simplicity:
  “If the business makes sense, you can explain it in a simple sentence. If you cannot, I choose not to own it.” (44:39)

• AI Restructuring Work:
  “About half of the tasks of an analyst today are better with large language models and half are with humans.” (61:17)

• Poker Analogy:
  “Investors often forget that making a great decision and experiencing a great outcome are quite distinct.” (36:15)

Important Segments

• Gold, Money & Macro (00:45–02:15)
• Wall Street Price Targets Critique (01:15–05:41)
• Value vs. Dividends (10:12–13:39)
• Rejecting Market Forecasting (63:35–64:39)
• AI’s Role in Investing (60:00–63:35)
• Wise Contrarian Views on Asset Allocation, Turnover, and Simplicity (33:11, 52:26, 44:39)

Tone and Language

Throughout the episode, the tone is forthright, thoughtful, sometimes cheeky, and always challenging of conventional wisdom. The guests and hosts encourage skepticism about mainstream investing truisms and urge listeners to think clearly, employ humility, and seek simplicity or evidence over narrative or habit.

For Listeners

Even if you’ve never heard the episode, this summary brings you the rich tapestry of sharply reasoned, sometimes iconoclastic beliefs from market experts—covering macro, micro, technical, behavioral, and technological themes. Each perspective is intended to make you question not just what you believe, but why you believe it.