Excess Returns Podcast Episode Summary
Episode: You’re Waiting for the Bubble to Burst | Jan van Eck on Why It Already Has
Date: January 25, 2026
Guest: Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck
Hosts: Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau, Matt Zeigler

Episode Overview

This episode features Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, a pioneer in ETFs and asset management. The conversation centers around VanEck's 2026 market outlook, the misconception that an “AI bubble” persists, macro trends such as fiscal policy and technology, the evolution and impact of AI, and why Jan believes long-term investing and global perspective are more important than short-term noise. The discussion also touches on gold’s role in portfolios, the structure of ETFs, and innovation in market structure and tokenization.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

VanEck’s Macro Framework for Investing

• Three Macro Pillars: Government spending (fiscal policy), monetary policy, and technology are the foundational "pillars" guiding VanEck’s worldview and investment strategy.
• Historical Perspective: Jan emphasizes the rapid, unpredictable change possible in financial markets and the importance of appreciating historical context for asset classes (e.g., emerging markets, gold, real assets were once overlooked).
  • Quote: “Because we appreciate history, we think the future can actually change much more radically and much more quickly than people think about.” (03:11, Jan van Eck)

2026 Market Outlook: "Visibility Should Mean Risk On"

• Fiscal Policy: Federal fiscal deficits are improving, dropping from over 6.5% of GDP several years ago to a projected below 5.5% in 2026.
  • Quote: “That brings us out of the fiscal danger zone...meaning our debt levels will become less of a stress on the markets.” (05:10, Jan van Eck)
• Monetary Policy: New Fed leadership is expected to be less interventionist. Interest rates are seen as "normal," not setting up for aggressive cuts.
  • Comments on Scott Bessant’s roadmap for a “smaller, less interventionist Fed.”
  • Quote: “Interest rates today are normal. And what that suggests to me is that he was not laying the groundwork for someone to...drive short term interest rates from 3.5% to 1%.” (08:31, Jan van Eck)
• Technology: Hyper-growth in compute (AI token) demand; 38x increase from summer 2024 to summer 2025 per internal VanEck estimates.

AI: The Second Most Important Tech Shift after Railroads

• AI Demand: Compute demand for AI is driving shortages and historic earnings for semiconductors companies like TSMC and Nvidia.
  • Quote: “Token demand is exploding...even CEOs will just say we can’t predict it. It’s insane.” (20:24, Jan van Eck)
  • On the market correction for speculative AI stocks in Q4: “Everyone is talking about the AI bubble—in Q4, the bubble burst.” (23:04, Jan van Eck)
• AI’s Economic Impact:
  • Jan argues against the likelihood of a dramatic unemployment shock from AI, citing history of slow, gradual workforce adaptation.
  • Quote: “It really takes decades for the complete trend to work. You don’t really see a big jump.” (23:55, Jan van Eck)
• AI 2.0 and Energy/Electricity: Next phase of AI will benefit industries like electricity generation and nuclear energy. “It’s a whole bunch of gas turbines that [companies] are looking to repurpose to become electricity providers.” (29:29, Jan van Eck)
• Phase 2 of AI ("AI 2.0"): More industries benefiting, especially electricity generation.
  • Quote: "Sometimes people call it energy, which is like a pet peeve because it’s electricity that we’re short of, not necessarily NAT gas." (28:31, Jan van Eck)

Market Structure & The “Bubble Burst” Narrative

• Healthy Correction: Q4 2025 correction in speculative AI and related stocks is viewed as a healthy repricing, not evidence of a persistent "bubble."
• Mega-cap Tech: Draws analogy to railroads’ dominance in the 1800s; today’s tech giants are profitable, lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, and have the scale to benefit from AI and digital trends.
  • Quote: “These mega-cap companies are unbelievable profit machines...they own the American consumer.” (31:16, Jan van Eck)
• Future of Dominant Companies: OpenAI demonstrates how quickly new entrants can challenge entrenched giants but Jan is cautious about forecasting far futures.

Private Credit and Asset Liquidity

• Private Credit Risks: Recent high-profile blow-ups are not systemic; BDCs (Business Development Companies) serve as a barometer for credit market sentiment.
  • Quote: “If you think this is going to be a big disaster, then you should sell and you can because they’re liquid.” (40:39, Jan van Eck)
• ETFs & Liquidity: Stresses importance of matching liquidity between fund structures and underlying assets. VanEck avoids placing illiquid assets in daily liquidity vehicles.
  • Quote: “Illiquid assets should not be in daily liquidity vehicles.” (43:51, Jan van Eck)

Gold: Global Currency Renaissance

• Long-Term Bullishness: Gold’s recent run reflects global demand, especially from emerging economies seeking a currency alternative to the dollar. The seizure of Russian assets reinforced gold’s appeal as a politically neutral store of value.
  • Quote: "I just think gold is re-emerging as the world’s leading currency." (45:47, Jan van Eck)
  • “Developed markets said, we live in a paper world, we live in a dollar world, I don’t need gold anymore...now as they got wealthier, [emerging markets] started buying gold.” (48:13, Jan van Eck)
• Gold Miners: Once deeply out of favor, now benefiting from higher gold prices. Demand for shorting gold miners has dropped, indicating less skepticism.

Long-Term Trends vs. Short-Term Noise

• Globalization & India: India projected to be the size of continental Europe in 10 years; VanEck remains bullish despite underperformance relative to emerging markets.
  • Quote: “You can just have much greater conviction around [long-term trends] than maybe shorter term predictions.” (14:39, Jan van Eck)
• Behavioral Bias Avoidance: Jan warns investors against recency and short-term bias.
  • Quote: “So much of the mistakes that are made in finance are based on psychology. It’s recency bias.” (61:54, Jan van Eck)

Innovation in Market Structure & Tokenization

• Market Innovations: Blockchain and tokenization are rapidly developing. NYSE, stablecoins, and new fund structures are changing access and utility.
  • Quote: “Tokenization...is something that we’re definitely looking at.” (58:16, Jan van Eck)
  • Robinhood cited as an innovator in bringing financial technology to retail investors, especially via prediction markets.

Family Ownership & Investment Philosophy

• Family Business Advantages: Freedom from pressure of quarterly results enables longer-term, client-focused decision making.
  • Quote: “It’s a lot easier to have a little money in the bank...and not have to lay people off in your client relations team or in your portfolio management team.” (55:17, Jan van Eck)
• Learning from History & Mistakes: Encourages investing with a long-term, global view, and advocates for individual investors to try things and learn from mistakes (but not become day traders).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The way I put it, everyone is talking about the AI bubble—in Q4, the bubble burst.”
  (23:04, Jan van Eck)

• “Because we appreciate history, we think the future can actually change much more radically and much more quickly than people think about.”
  (03:11, Jan van Eck)

• “I just think gold is re-emerging as the world’s leading currency...it’s a 10-year shift or shift back to the way the whole world is going to be.”
  (45:47, Jan van Eck)

• “Their revenues keep growing and...their headcount has basically been flat for a couple years.”
  (31:16, Jan van Eck, on mega-cap tech)

• “So much of the mistakes that are made in finance are based on psychology. It’s recency bias.”
  (61:54, Jan van Eck)

• “If you look at the projections, India at current growth rate will be the size of continental Europe in 10 years. That is a profound reshaping of the world.”
  (14:39, Jan van Eck)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• VanEck’s Macro Framework: 03:04–04:34
• 2026 Outlook & "Risk On" Thesis: 04:59–11:18
• AI’s Impact on Markets/Economy: 20:00–23:55
• AI Bubble & Market Correction: 22:50–23:20
• AI 2.0/Electricity & Energy: 28:20–30:27
• Mega-cap Tech & Their Advantage: 31:16–35:51
• Gold’s Global Resurgence: 45:26–49:56
• Long-Term Trends vs. Short-Term Focus: 14:14–16:47, 61:54–64:01
• ETF Structure & Liquidity: 42:22–44:42
• Family-Owned Advantage: 55:17–57:14
• Blockchain, Tokenization & Market Structure Innovation: 57:29–60:39

This summary captures the central themes and expert insights from Jan van Eck on macro trends, technology’s market impact, the realities behind major investing narratives, and the importance of combining history, discipline, and global perspective in portfolio construction.