In this episode of Commodity Kitchen, I walked through the latest commodity trends, noting that our food-weighted index has fallen below prior-year levels for the first time in nearly two years. Energy markets remain a tailwind with gasoline now at four-year lows, while grains and soybean oil continue to show weakness. Coffee prices are easing after tariff exemptions on Brazil and Vietnam, and dairy markets are sharply lower year over year due to abundant milk supply. Protein markets remain mixed, with chicken output running higher, pork values supported, and beef production down more than 4% year to date — a key driver behind the recent surge in cattle futures.

I was joined by Pedrom Rejai of Elevate Growth Partners, who explained how tariffs and retaliation are disrupting global food trade, pointing to a 96% collapse in U.S. beef exports to China as licenses expire and Australia steps in to fill the gap. We discussed how the almond industry successfully diversified export markets after the 2018 trade war and why that model is critical today. Pedrom also outlined best practices for navigating international sourcing, including leveraging USMCA exemptions, tightening documentation on processed foods, and investing in traceability and supplier diversification to build long-term supply chain resilience.

Connect with out host:

David Maloni’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidmaloni/

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Connect with out Guest:

Pedrom Rejai's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/pedromrejai/

Markets & Mistletoe