Fresh Air: Could the Iran War Lead to WWIII?

Date: March 17, 2026
Host: Terry Gross
Guest: Karim Sajapour (Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

Episode Overview

Terry Gross interviews Iran expert Karim Sajapour about the implications of the escalating war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. The conversation centers on Iran's current leadership crisis, the shifting balance of power among military and revolutionary factions, the region's changing strategic landscape, and the real risk of broader conflict—including the possibility of World War III. The episode examines the motivations behind Iran's actions, Trump administration policies, the fate of Iranian civil society and protest movements, and possible outcomes for the war and the region.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Leadership Crisis and Succession After Ayatollah Khamenei’s Assassination

• Moshtaba Khamenei’s Rise:

  • Moshtaba Khamenei, son of the former Supreme Leader killed in an Israeli attack, is officially the successor but remains out of public view due to injuries and threats. The real operational power currently lies with the Revolutionary Guards and the military.
  • “On paper, Mojtaba Khamenei is the most powerful man in the country. But… it’s the Revolutionary Guards and the military who are the power behind his throne.”
    — Karim Sajapour (02:42)

• Leadership Qualities:

  • Moshtaba is described as lacking experience and charisma compared to his father, raising doubts about his ability to unite or control the country.
  • “His image, his voice are not familiar to people… he’s fighting a war against the greatest superpower in the world, the United States, and against the greatest military power in the Middle East, Israel.”
    — Karim Sajapour (03:47)

• Assassination Threats and Regime Stability:

  • Israeli efforts to assassinate Iranian leaders have created instability but are unlikely to topple the regime outright, as any successor would likely maintain the revolutionary principles of 1979.

Revolutionary Guard Power and Strategic Decentralization

• Guard Structure and Ideology:

  • Revolutionary Guards are not monolithic but remain united around core revolutionary values and regime survival, operating in a decentralized fashion (like “31 legs of an octopus”).
  • “They all have seemingly closed ranks around… regime survival [and] upholding principles of defiance against America and Israel.”
    — Karim Sajapour (05:50)

• Impact on Strategy:

  • The lack of centralized command has led to erratic and unpredictable Iranian military retaliation, complicating strategic responses from the West and Israel.

Comparisons with the Gulf States and Iran's Outdated Vision

• Ideological Divide:

  • Iran’s leadership remains tied to anti-Western revolutionary slogans and social repression, while Gulf rivals (like Saudi Arabia, UAE) pursue modernization, economic diversification, and international engagement.

  • “Iran’s ideology thrives when there are power vacuums and state failures… Whereas the Gulf countries, they need stability… they are trying to become international hubs for tourism, for transportation, for technology. And you can’t have that if there are constant wars.”
    — Karim Sajapour (13:22)

  • “My line about them is they want to be South Korea, not North Korea. And Moshtaba Khamenei’s vision is for a Shiite North Korea.”
    — Karim Sajapour (15:21)

• Attacks Against Modernization:

  • Iran’s strategy of targeting Gulf infrastructure, shipping, and tourism directly undermines the progress made by these states, using asymmetric means like cheap drones and missiles to inflict high economic costs.
  • “It takes decades to build places and it takes weeks to destroy places.”
    — Karim Sajapour (16:09)

U.S. and Global Response; War Aims and Consequences

• Trump Administration Missteps:

  • Sajapour criticizes the U.S. administration’s unclear strategy—shifting goals from regime change to nuclear disarmament—with inadequate understanding of the Iranian regime’s resilience and complexity.
  • “That lack of clarity… has been deeply detrimental because, you know, if you don’t know what it is that you’re trying to achieve, then you’re putting both the U.S. Military and our partners in very difficult positions.”
    — Karim Sajapour (26:59)

• International Isolation of Iran:

  • Iran is described as “strategically lonely,” with few true allies, and both Russia and China maintaining stronger relationships with Gulf rivals than with Iran itself.

  • “The Islamic Republic of Iran is probably the top one or two most strategically lonely countries in the world… the Chinese are not going to come and fight on Iran’s behalf.”
    — Karim Sajapour (22:18)

• Risk of Larger War / WWIII:

  • While the Middle East has become dangerously destabilized, Sajapour discounts the likelihood of full-scale World War III due to realpolitik and economic self-interest among major powers.
  • “I don’t think that the world—or, you know, especially the Middle East—is going to feel like a stable place… but [I] am not concerned that this will deteriorate into a World War Three.”
    — Karim Sajapour (23:36)

Impact on Iranians & Protest Movements

• Brutality and Survival of the Regime:

  • The regime’s core support is small but ruthlessly committed, prepared to kill or be killed to maintain power. Repression has intensified, and prospects for internal revolution remain extremely low under current conditions.

  • “This is a regime which probably has at best 20, maybe 15% popular support. But their supporters… are a ruthlessly devoted minority… it’s kill or be killed for them.”
    — Karim Sajapour (29:28)

• Protest Leadership & Exile:

  • Any effective internal opposition has been crushed or exiled. Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah, has become a symbolic inspirational leader for many in the diaspora, but the organizational leadership necessary for a real revolution is lacking.

  • “The Iranian Vaclav Havel is either dead or in Los Angeles… For many who opposed the regime, [Reza Pahlavi]’s kind of become an inspirational leader for the opposition.”
    — Karim Sajapour (33:37)

• Humanitarian Impact:

  • The population suffers under war conditions—bombings, toxic smoke, “black rain”—while many feel trapped between the immediate dangers of war and the long-term suffering under the current regime.

  • “War is hell. It’s not just a cliché. I think people are experiencing that inside Iran.”
    — Karim Sajapour (32:18)

Best and Worst Case Scenarios Looking Forward

• Negotiation Priorities:

  • Sajapour enumerates four priorities for U.S.-Iran negotiations: nuclear program, missiles/drones, regional proxies, and regime brutality toward its people.
  • “There are four main priorities… One is obviously nuclear… their missiles and drones… their proxies… and… Iran’s brutality toward its own population.”
    — Karim Sajapour (25:26)

• Best Case (Viable) Scenario:

  • Liberation of the Strait of Hormuz and ending regional attacks. Even this would leave open questions about nuclear material, drones/missiles, proxies, and Iran’s internal repression.

  • “Best case scenario… would be we have a different government that comes to power… I don’t think that is a short-term prospect.”
    — Karim Sajapour (37:53)

  • “In the near term… we liberate the Straits of Hormuz… Iran has ceased all of its attacks.”
    — Karim Sajapour (38:28)

• Structural Obstacles:

  • True change is unlikely in the short term given the regime’s ability to maintain power through brutality and lack of a viable internal or external coalition to replace it.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Iran’s Strategic Isolation:
  “The Islamic Republic of Iran is probably the top one or two most strategically lonely countries in the world. It really has very, very few reliable allies in the world.”
  — Karim Sajapour (22:18)

• On Successor Weakness:
  “He’s someone who, as I said, has operated in the shadows all of his life… he wasn’t a revolutionary leader. He wasn’t a revolutionary. He’s inherited power.”
  — Karim Sajapour (11:02)

• On Historical Legacies:
  “I’m reminded of an observation which the North African historian Ibn Khaldun made… empires are built and destroyed over three generations.”
  — Karim Sajapour (10:01)

• On Iranian Public Sentiment:
  “My line about them is they want to be South Korea, not North Korea. And Moshtaba Khamenei’s vision is for a Shiite North Korea. And I just don’t think there’s many takers for what he’s selling.”
  — Karim Sajapour (15:21)

• On Lessons of Power and Repression:
  “The one thing that the Islamic Republic of Iran does effectively is repression. It’s a government built to stay in power. And they’ve been practicing the art and science of repression for five decades.”
  — Karim Sajapour (33:25)

• On America and Iran as Natural Partners:
  “I always quote Henry Kissinger here. He said there are few nations in the world with whom the United States has more common interests and less reason to quarrel than Iran. But Iran has to decide whether it’s a nation or a cause.”
  — Karim Sajapour (43:01)

Important Timestamps

• Ayatollah’s Assassination & Moshtaba’s Fate — 00:15–04:20
• Revolutionary Guard’s Decentralization — 04:20–06:45
• Comparison with Other Gulf States / Vision 1979 — 12:03–15:21
• Impact and Logic of Iran’s Attacks (Gulf, Economy) — 15:34–17:42
• Global Response & Potential for World War III — 21:02–24:07
• Trump Administration’s Strategy & Red Lines — 24:07–27:40
• Protest Movement’s Fate & Nature of Dictatorship — 28:21–31:51
• Protest Leadership Possibilities & Nostalgia for the Monarchy — 33:09–35:12
• Best and Viable Scenarios for Ending the War — 37:43–40:14
• Outlook for Iran’s Future, U.S. Relations — 40:30–44:16

Conclusion

Karim Sajapour provides a nuanced assessment of the current Iranian crisis, explaining how internal weaknesses and external pressures have shaped Iran’s aggressive posture and the region’s instability. He tempers fears of global war, arguing that broad-based alliances in support of Iran are unlikely, but warns of ongoing instability and human suffering. His analysis suggests that regime change and true reform are distant prospects, hindered by deep-seated repression and the lack of a coherent alternative leadership—inside or outside Iran.

For listeners seeking a comprehensive primer on the Iran war’s current state, its underlying causes, and geopolitical implications, this episode of Fresh Air delivers clear-eyed analysis and vital historical context.