B (3:34)

Now, assuming that the US doesn't take military action, what kind of deal is Trump trying to make here?

D (3:42)

So yesterday morning, he said that a deal hinges on Iran's nuclear program, saying the regime cannot have nuclear weapons. But beyond that, Trump and his administration have not given specifics. One senior administration official told reporters on Wednesday that with regard to Iran, we are open for business if the regime wants to reach out, and that the regime knows what the terms of any deal are. It's also worth pointing out that even though Trump seems to be tying this deal to Iran's nuclear enrichment program, he's been claiming since the summer that the US Obliterated Iran's enrichment program with those strikes that he ordered last year.

B (4:21)

Now, Steph, how has Iran responded to all this?

D (4:23)

Iran has said that it's ready to defend itself, but also that it's ready for dialogue. Iranian officials have come out saying that they're not seeking war, but that they're prepared for one. Iran's president also started implementing emergency measures to shore up supplies of essential goods and to keep the Iranian government running should the US Attack. It's worth noting that Iran has said that its nuclear program was not for building weapons, but for civilian use. And now it's denying that it has restarted its nuclear program since the US Strikes last year.

B (4:56)

Okay, so we're talking some big hypotheticals here, but what kind of consequences would a large US Military action in Iran have?

D (5:05)

The most immediate risk would be one of retaliation against U.S. forces in the region. There are somewhere between 30 and 40,000 U.S. troops spread across multiple countries and at sea. And of course, there's the risk that any conflict could spill over to other parts of the region. It could also affect oil supplies. Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards have warned countries in the region that if the US Strikes, oil supplies that pass through the Strait of Hormuz could be at risk. And if the US does attack, Iran could target oil and gas facilities across the region, acting on this notion that if they can't sell oil. Nobody can.

B (5:39)

So, Steph, what does this all tell us about Trump's foreign policy decisions? Of course, there have been many over the past month.

D (5:47)

So it tells me that force very much has a place in Trump's foreign policy. But since he's making the comparison to Venezuela himself, it's important to stress that Iran and Venezuela are very different geopolitical situations. In Venezuela, there's a clear regime structure and one that was preserved with the US Military action. Right. They cut off the head of the snake, but the actual structure is the same and the new president was a regime official. In Iran, the regime is not one with centralized power at the top. It's got rival factions and networks that compete with each other for power. And the supreme leader kind of maneuvers and moderates and balances these different power centers. So if you remove the supreme Leader, it's not necessarily going to change that.

B (6:32)

That's the ft. Steph Chavez in Washington. Thanks, Steph.

D (6:35)

Thanks.

B (6:43)

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday. That was expected. Only two members of the US Central bank voted in favor of a quarter point cut. But chair Jay Powell still had to field a bunch of questions ranging from the economic to the political. So let's start with the political. Powell did not comment on the Department of Justice investigation into him, but he did explain why he attended the Supreme Court oral arguments about whether the president can fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

E (7:11)

I would say that that case is perhaps the most important legal case in the Fed's 113 year history. And as I thought about it, I thought it might be hard to explain why I didn't attend.

B (7:25)

Powell caught flak from U.S. treasury Secretary Scott Besant for going to the hearing. Powell did mention that past Fed chairs have attended Supreme Court cases in the past. Now, onto the economic side of the press conference. Inflation is still sitting higher than the Fed's 2% target rate. But Powell said that price pressures are acting about as expected. And he said that there's a clear improvement in the outlook for growth. And that's good news because there are signs the American job market is beginning to slow.

E (7:53)

Essentially, the economy has once again surprised us with its strength, not for the first time.

B (7:58)

Powell did say, however, that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates further anytime soon. Precious metals like gold and silver are hitting record high prices. And because of that, mining companies are getting a lot of love from investors, too. Camilla Hodson covers commodities for the ft and she joins me now to chat about this. Hi, Camilla.

C (8:23)

Good morning.

B (8:24)

So just put this Rally into context for me. How big is it?

C (8:28)

It's a really extraordinary rally that's happened in really not very much time at all. What we've seen is over the past month, the 50 biggest mining stocks, so miners like BHP Rio Tinto Anglo are listed around the world, have added almost $500 billion to their market capitalizations, and that's a rise of about 20% over the last month. The bigger picture is that the mining sector overall is not massive when it comes to sectors like technology and AI. And so lots of money going into mining has a kind of outsized impact because something somewhat small is getting quite a lot bigger. But still, it is an extraordinary change in not much time.

B (9:11)

And so, Camilla, why are these metals and mining companies a new target for investors?

C (9:16)

It's part of this really interesting moment that we're in, I think, where there are conflicts around the world, there are geopolitical tensions, People are feeling this sense of uncertainty. And so people are looking for places to put their money, places that they think are going to be safe. And this is all coming in the context, too, of people losing confidence a bit in the US dollar, which has historically been something seen as safe and a good bet. And so gold, for example, is often what people buy when they don't know where else to put their money. But gold is very expensive now, and that's causing people to look elsewhere, but still within that same sector. So silver, for example, has really rallied in price in recent weeks. We've also seen record highs for copper. And I think the mining stocks are also benefiting from this because these are the companies that make things like gold, silver, copper, and so they stand to benefit from rising prices.

B (10:13)

So these rising prices are pushing up the valuations of these mining companies. How do analysts that you've spoken to feel about that?

C (10:19)

I think for a long time, analysts have felt that the mining sector has been kind of unloved and perhaps also that the valuations of mining companies hasn't really kept pace with the actual underlying price of the asset or the value of the metals that they produce. It seems like maybe there's a sense that that's changing and those two things are starting to come together. So, for example, the share price of a gold miner is perhaps more reflective of the value of gold. But equally, I think people are cautious. There's a sense that you need to be careful not to just jump on a hype train and put your money into a junior miner that perhaps isn't ever going to actually build a mine.

B (11:02)

So given all this geopolitical uncertainty that you've been talking about, does it seem like this rally still has room to run?

C (11:10)

I think investors and analysts are fairly optimistic, particularly when it comes to the mining majors, the big established companies that do produce lots of metal and have big revenues and are looking around at the moment for deals and ways to grow the business. There's also a sense that many metals prices are likely to keep rising because in the medium term we're likely to see shortages of things like copper and lithium and potentially a whole suite of other metals. So in that sense, analysts do think there's further to run. But of course, with markets you never really know, it's difficult to forecast. And also as more generalist money and kind of retail investor money, as opposed to specialist money goes into the sector, there's always a risk that those investors get spooked or take their money out once they think that they've made enough and that brings prices down.

B (12:04)

Camilla Hodson covers commodities for the ft. Camilla, thanks so much for your time.

C (12:08)

Thanks so much.

B (12:11)

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