Podcast Summary: The Rachman Review – Europe’s Triple Shock: Putin, Trump and Xi

Podcast: FT News Briefing
Host: Gideon Rachman
Guest: Timothy Garton Ash, historian and author
Date: December 25, 2025
Episode Theme:
A deep-dive discussion on Europe’s emerging challenges and shifting global order in light of three seismic geopolitical shocks: Russia’s aggression under Putin, the unpredictable US under Trump, and China’s rise under Xi. The conversation explores historical context, Europe’s responses, its geopolitical weaknesses, and the internal and external factors threatening (and potentially strengthening) European unity and influence.

Main Themes & Purpose

• To examine how Europe is coping with the “triple shock” posed by Putin’s Russia, Trump’s America, and Xi’s China.
• To reflect on Europe’s historic trajectory from the optimistic post-Cold War era to today’s climate of insecurity and fragmentation.
• To assess whether Europe can find the unity and power needed to face an era of existential crises.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Europe’s New Era: From Hope to Hardship

• Timeline of Change
  • [02:00] Timothy Garton Ash argues we are "at the beginning of a new era," which began with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The prior "post-Wall" period (1989–2022) was marked by optimism, democratic transitions, and integration.
    • Quote:

      "It begins on the 24th of February 2022 with Putin's full scale invasion of Ukraine. ... The return of full scale interstate war, now well into its fourth year in Europe... clearly defines this as a new era."
      — Timothy Garton Ash, [02:00]

• Shift from Optimism to Darkness
  • The hopeful end of communism has given way to a dark age of war and rising authoritarianism, but Ash emphasizes that post-1989 achievements “were quite extraordinary.”
    • Quote:

      "All the transitions from half of Europe... into what are more or less democratic, free countries... most of them in the EU and in NATO... that is quite extraordinary."
      — Timothy Garton Ash, [03:29]

2. 2008 Onward: Cascading Crises & Missed Opportunities

• Key Turning Points
  • After 2008, Europe faced a cascade of crises: global financial crash, Eurozone turmoil, and Russian aggression (starting with Georgia, 2008; Crimea, 2014).
• Failures to Respond Decisively
  • Ash argues stronger action after 2014 could have averted current disaster.
    • Quote:

      "If we'd had a more decisive response, particularly after 2014, we might not be in this mess."
      — Timothy Garton Ash, [04:51]

3. Angela Merkel’s Legacy: Admired but Flawed

• Paradox of Merkel
  • Merkel personified the best of German leadership, but on key challenges—energy dependence on Russia, China ties, and tolerating autocracy in Hungary—she “got it wrong.”
    • Quote:

      "On all the big issues, she actually got it wrong."
      — Timothy Garton Ash, [07:16]

4. Europe’s Crisis Response: Myth versus Reality

• Europe Built Through Crisis?

  • Referencing Jean Monnet, Ash points out that while Europe has responded well to crises like COVID and the end of the Cold War, it failed on others, such as migration.

  • The current moment is a “triple crisis:”

    • Putin Shock (Russian aggression)
    • Trump Shock (unpredictable U.S. support)
    • Xi Shock (China, and broader "Global South," not aligning with the West)

    Quote:

    "It's a triple crisis, isn't it? ... There's a Putin shock, the Trump shock and the Xi shock."
    — Timothy Garton Ash, [08:22]

5. Europe as Geopolitical Actor: Power and Divisions

• Effective Where United, Absent Where Divided
  • Europe has become a strong actor in Ukraine—both in economic and military aid—even as divisions persist (notably Orban in Hungary).
  • In the Middle East (Gaza) crisis, Europe was “nowhere to be seen” due to internal disunity.
    • Quote:

      "Europe was disunited. There was no shared position. ... There are worlds that divide the German position on Israel, Gaza from that of Spain and then Europe cannot be effective."
      — Timothy Garton Ash, [11:48]

6. Europe’s Structural Weakness: “One Dimensional Superpower”

• Not a True Superpower

  • Economic muscle alone is insufficient without coherent defense and security power.
  • In trade negotiations with the U.S. under Trump, the EU “caved in” due to lack of leverage.
    • Quote:

      "A one dimensional superpower is no superpower at all."
      — Timothy Garton Ash, [12:20]

• The “Anthology of Sycophancy”

  • European leaders forced to appease Trump to keep U.S. support for Ukraine/NATO.
    • Quote:

      "Europe's relations with Donald Trump could produce a book called the Anthology of Sycophancy."
      — Timothy Garton Ash, [13:38]

7. The Core Challenge: European Policy, National Politics

• Can Europe Grow Beyond National Interest?

  • Europe needs defense, capital markets, and digital policy at continental scale, but national electoral politics constantly get in the way.
    • Quote:

      "The policies we need are European, but the politics are still national."
      — Timothy Garton Ash, [15:27]

• Historical Resonance: Rome, Unity, and Diversity

  • The struggle is to find a “golden balance” between unity (integration) and diversity (nation states).
    • Quote:

      "The key, in my view, to the future success of Europe politically is finding this elusive balance between unity and diversity."
      — Timothy Garton Ash, [18:05]

8. External Vulnerability & “Scramble for Europe”

• From Global Dominator to Strategic Prey?

  • Other powers now seek to influence or exploit Europe’s divisions.

  • Orban is highlighted as a master of “multi-aligning,” playing all sides to Hungary’s benefit, risking further disintegration.

    Quote:

    "There’s a kind of survival model ... to do from inside the European Union, what Narendra Modi calls multi aligning. ... That illustrates the danger that is clearly there. And that would lead to, I think, a gradual disintegration of this Europe."
    — Timothy Garton Ash, [19:05]

9. Risk of Populism and Nationalist Right

• Will Anti-European Forces Prevail?
  • Many major EU states will hold elections soon; right-wing populists lead polls in several.
  • Ash warns against overreacting to every swing, arguing the internal balance is key, and some “populists” may govern pragmatically.
    • Quote:

      “It’s going to be a series of swings and roundabouts, but the question is, how do we come out of that in a kind of five to ten year time frame?”
      — Timothy Garton Ash, [24:32]

10. Brexit and the UK’s Missed Opportunity

• Brexit as Self-Harm, But Also Harmful to EU
  • Ash: Brexit was the UK’s “largest act of national self harm” and weakened Europe.
• Failure to Reset Relations
  • The UK government’s caution, driven by electoral concerns (“Red Wall” voters), missed a vital chance for deep reset with Europe after Russia’s invasion and Trump’s rise.
    • Quote:

      “There is a historic opportunity which is being missed there. And I hope that either Keir Starmer himself or ... a new Labour Prime Minister ... will try to seize that chance.”
      — Timothy Garton Ash, [27:13]

• EU Must Also Step Up
  • Europe’s hardline negotiations on UK participation in defense funds risk wasting low-hanging opportunities for tighter cooperation.
    • Quote:

      “...they are continuing to drive this series of rather short sighted, very hard bargains. ... If Britain did what I’m suggesting we do and propose a much larger and more strategic reset...you could have a much bigger deal.”
      — Timothy Garton Ash, [28:25]

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On the start of a new era:
  "It begins on the 24th of February 2022 with Putin's full scale invasion of Ukraine...clearly defines this as a new era."
  – Timothy Garton Ash, [02:00]

• On Merkel’s paradoxical legacy:
  "On all the big issues, she actually got it wrong."
  – Timothy Garton Ash, [07:16]

• On the “triple crisis”:
  "It's a triple crisis, isn't it? ... There's a Putin shock, the Trump shock and the Xi shock."
  – Timothy Garton Ash, [08:22]

• On Europe's power dilemma:
  "A one dimensional superpower is no superpower at all."
  – Timothy Garton Ash, [12:20]
  "Europe's relations with Donald Trump could produce a book called the Anthology of Sycophancy."
  – Timothy Garton Ash, [13:38]

• On the structural challenge:
  "The policies we need are European, but the politics are still national."
  – Timothy Garton Ash, [15:27]

• On the need for unity and diversity:
  "The key, in my view, to the future success of Europe politically is finding this elusive balance between unity and diversity."
  – Timothy Garton Ash, [18:05]

• On internal and external threats:
  "There’s a kind of survival model...multi aligning. ...That would lead to, I think, a gradual disintegration of this Europe."
  – Timothy Garton Ash, [19:05]

• On the significance of upcoming elections:
  "It’s going to be a series of swings and roundabouts, but the question is, how do we come out of that in a kind of five to ten year time frame?"
  – Timothy Garton Ash, [24:32]

• On Brexit and UK-EU relations:
  "There is a historic opportunity which is being missed there."
  – Timothy Garton Ash, [27:13]

Timestamps: Key Segments

• [02:00] — “New era” begins with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
• [03:09] — Why the post-1989 period was not “wasted time”
• [04:46] — 2008 as the start of cascading crises
• [06:04] — Angela Merkel’s paradoxical record
• [07:46] — Europe’s ability (or inability) to respond to crisis
• [08:22] — Outlining the “triple shock”: Putin, Trump, Xi
• [12:20] — Europe as "one dimensional superpower"
• [13:38] — Europe’s “Anthology of Sycophancy” toward Trump
• [15:27] — Policy needs at European scale vs. national politics
• [18:05] — Importance of managing unity and diversity
• [19:05] — External manipulation and the risk of disintegration
• [21:39] — The rise of the populist and far-right challenge in EU states
• [24:43] — Brexit’s impact and the UK’s missed reset opportunity
• [27:47] — Brussels’ hardline stance towards UK in defense cooperation

Conclusion

This episode of The Rachman Review presents a searching, historically-grounded conversation about Europe’s precarious present and uncertain future. Through the lens of the “triple shock” and referencing both past brilliance and contemporary failures, Gideon Rachman and Timothy Garton Ash diagnose Europe’s strengths, weaknesses, and the paradoxes embedded in its institutions and politics. The challenge ahead: not to rival superpowers, but to muster sufficient unity and multidimensional power to defend and, where possible, extend the gains of the last 30+ years.