Future of Life Institute Podcast

How to Rebuild the Social Contract After AGI (with Deric Cheng)

Episode Date: January 27, 2026

Guest: Deric Cheng, Director of the Windfall Trust and AGI Social Contract

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the pressing question of how society should respond to the profound economic and social transformations that may arise from the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Host (B) and guest Deric Cheng (A) discuss the risk of rising inequality, labor disempowerment, and the concentration of wealth and power as AI-driven automation accelerates. They explore whether the existing social contract can survive or needs to be dramatically rebuilt—and if so, how. The conversation examines policy solutions, human dignity and purpose in a post-AGI world, and visions for a positive future.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Threat of AI-Driven Economic Concentration

• Superstar Firms & Automation:
  Cheng warns of a future where “superstar” corporations, each with tiny core teams but thousands of AI agents, dominate entire industries, replacing millions of human jobs.

  “What would be really concerning is... those firms have maybe a hundred people or 500 people, but are augmented and supported by thousands of AI agents…start to capture…a majority of the economic wealth.” (A, 00:00)

• Comparison Over Time:
  A shift from previous eras where large companies employed millions, to today’s tech giants with tens of thousands, to a near future where companies do more with even fewer humans (05:44).

2. The Disempowerment of Human Labor

• Labor vs. Capital:
  There is concern that as value shifts from labor to capital, humans will lose bargaining power, wages may stagnate, and people might be cut out of the economy’s gains.

  "If we lose labor's ability to have leverage in the marketplace, we lose their ability to advocate for stronger wages, to have a say in the direction of our economy, then we lose a lot of beneficial aspects of how our society is currently set up." (A, 02:10)

• Potential for Societal Instability:
  Economic concentration and inequality risk causing unrest and instability, paralleling historical precedents for revolution and turmoil as a result of poorly distributed wealth (09:34, 10:30).

3. Will Everyone Be Rich? Does Inequality Then Matter?

• Widespread Prosperity vs. Instability:
  While it’s possible that everyone’s material well-being might rise, the risks of excluded populations and the concentration of AI power (especially in the West and China) could cause political destabilization if the benefits aren't broadly shared (09:34).

  "We have seen significant periods of instability, unrest, even revolution, when inequality and when the gains from the economy are not well distributed enough. And we might see similar outcomes..." (A, 10:30)

4. Time Pressure and Political Will

• Is There Time to Act?
  Cheng argues that while the pace of change is daunting, rapid social and policy responses are possible, but require advance planning and readiness (11:43).

  "My belief is really that in the case that we see sudden, dramatic changes from AI... you also see a very rapid shift in how government societies and political systems respond." (A, 11:43)

• Bridging Expertise Gaps:
  There’s a disconnect between “AI futurists” and establishment economists/policymakers—the former are convinced of rapid imminent change; the latter are skeptical it will be radical. Dialogue and scenario planning are needed (14:10–16:37).

5. What Jobs Survive in the Age of AGI?

• Resistant Job Categories:
  The conversation highlights several categories likely to remain valuable:

  • Intent Communicators: Interpreters between human executives and AI systems (27:45).
  • Interpersonal Specialists: Roles requiring in-person emotional or social connection (e.g., teachers, coaches, nannies) (29:24).
  • Decision Arbiters: Judges, lawyers, doctors—roles with legal or cultural constraints against automation (31:22).
  • Creative & Artisan Labor: Human-made, authentic creative work and artisan goods retaining status and value (35:15–35:48).

• Human Connection & Status Goods:
  Even as automation rises, people may value and pay for authentic, human-generated services and experiences—sometimes as luxury goods (36:58).

6. Taxation and Redistribution for a Post-AGI World

• Progressive Corporate Taxes:
  Cheng proposes a progressive corporate profit tax to capture value from capital as labor’s share declines (51:43).

  "A progressive corporate profit tax would help to respond to that by capturing more value from the largest corporations..." (A, 51:43)

• Land & Consumption Taxes:
  Land taxes are highlighted as resilient and less prone to evasion (“You can't just move your solar farm from Nevada to somewhere else.”) (55:53).

• International Tax Coordination:
  Addressing tax avoidance and the “race to the bottom” requires global agreements (OECD BEPS 2.0), especially for digital tech giants (53:49–55:34).

7. The Limits and Challenges of Policy Experimentation

• Testing New Social Policies:
  Running robust policy experiments (e.g., on UBI) is exceptionally hard due to cost, logistical, and political barriers. Existing targeted trials (like GiveDirectly) offer clues but have limitations (47:31–51:24).

8. Multiple Time Horizons for Action

• Near-, Medium-, and Long-Term:
  • Near term: Wage insurance, reskilling programs, unemployment benefits.
  • Medium/Long term: Potentially radical changes such as Universal Basic Income, global dividend, or foundational changes in social institutions (40:37–43:33).

  “Instead of having this debate about which one of these things are necessary...these are all different portions of the same path...” (A, 43:02)

9. Why Does Building a New Social Contract Matter?

• Fundamental Human Needs Endure:
  The "decoupling of economic security and purpose" is a key goal; with basic needs secured, people can pursue meaning, community, and self-realization (59:39).

  “My dream is that we could raise the floor on something like Maslow's hierarchy of needs, where the average person no longer has to worry about their physiological needs...and that they can move more towards almost things that they have independently decided for themselves...” (A, 59:39)

• “Freedom to cultivate our own garden” and “epoch of rest or of clear direction for our personal journeys” are Cheng’s metaphors for a future where scarcity and daily struggle are minimized (61:03–61:17).

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• AI Corporations and Wealth Concentration:

  "What does it look like if the richest person in the world has a wealth of the same GDP as all of Africa, for example?" (A, 00:00)

• On Labor’s Diminishing Power:

  "If we lose labor's ability to have leverage in the marketplace...then we lose a lot of beneficial aspects of how our society is currently set up." (A, 02:10)

• Universal Challenge:

  "One thing both parties and all people can agree on is that we do want good outcomes for human workers." (A, 07:31)

• On Policy Readiness:

  "...in the case that we see sudden, dramatic changes from AI...you also see a very rapid shift in how government societies and political systems respond." (A, 11:43)

• Jobs Resistant to Automation:

  "...the jobs that I see as deeply, deeply resistant to automation really have to do with human to human connection..." (A, 25:15)

• On Corporate Taxation:

  "...a progressive corporate profit tax would help to respond to that by capturing more value from the largest corporations as opposed to smaller mom and pop stores..." (A, 51:43)

• A Positive Long-term Vision:

  "My dream is that we could raise the floor on something like Maslow's hierarchy of needs, where the average person no longer has to worry about their physiological needs...and they no longer have to worry about their safety, but that they can move more towards almost things that they have independently decided for themselves..." (A, 59:39)

• Metaphor for Flourishing:

  "...we can have the freedom to cultivate our own garden." (B, 61:03)

• Community Investment:

  "Cathedrals is not maybe a literal sense, but more so to invest in projects that are meaningful and purposeful for communities to engage in." (A, 62:25)

Notable Segments & Timestamps

• [00:00–07:10] The economic and societal risks of extreme automation and concentration.
• [09:34–13:48] Wealth inequality, social unrest, and the pace of political/economic adaptation.
• [14:10–20:45] Divides between AI optimists and establishment economists; potential for mutual learning.
• [25:15–35:48] Categories of jobs likely resistant to automation and potential shifts toward human-centric, artisan, or status-driven work.
• [38:31–42:31] Baumol's cost disease, the rising value of limited resources (e.g., land, luxury/artisan goods), and implications for taxation.
• [51:43–58:35] Policy solutions: progressive corporate taxes and international cooperation, land taxes, and the limitations of current tax systems.
• [59:39–63:25] Sketches of a positive future: decoupling security and purpose, communal endeavors, building “cathedrals.”

Resources & Further Reading

• AGI Social Contract Essays: agisocialcontract.org
• Authors and Thinkers:
  • Daniel Susskind
  • Aaron Bastani, “Fully Automated Luxury Communism”
• Referenced Policy Initiatives:
  • OECD BEPS 2.0 (Base Erosion and Profit Shifting)
  • GiveDirectly’s UBI experiments
  • U.S. child tax credit

Conclusion

The episode provides a rigorous and nuanced exploration of how the arrival of AGI could upend our economic and social systems. Deric Cheng argues for readiness, experimentation, and cross-disciplinary dialogue to chart a path that keeps humans empowered and flourishing. The future, he suggests, could free us to build “cathedrals,” find meaning beyond material necessity, and cultivate a new social contract—if we act prudently and in time.

For continued updates and scenario planning on post-AGI economics and the social contract, follow the ongoing work at agisocialcontract.org.