← Generative Now | AI Builders on Creating the Future
Generative Now | AI Builders on Creating the Future
PART 2: Matthew Hartman | The Value of Premium Content and the Shifting Economics of the Internet
00:29:38
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- [00:00]
A
Foreign. Welcome to Generative Now. I am Michael Magnano. I am a partner at Lightspeed. And this week you're going to hear part two of my conversation with Matt Hartman. As a reminder, Matt is the founder and a partner at Factorial Capital, which is a new type of venture fund that focuses on partnering with angels and currently has a specific focus in AI. Matt and I pick up our conversation about AI and how it has fundamentally changed the way that the Internet works. So check out this conversation with Matt Harman. What else is catching your interest these days?
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B
I've been thinking a lot about, like, what are the B2B SaaS products that are AI native? If you imagine that the team you need to build that take the industry out, the team you need is a researcher who can really build models. Well, a business person who understands the industry for user acquisition and for understanding what the product needs, the actual product needs to be. And then maybe depending on the category or product person probably in my guess, who can kind of figure out what that application looks like. The questions I've been asking myself are just each category, kind of vertical by vertical. What's a good fit for where the value could accrue to a new company versus where it's probably going to accrue to an existing company? And then also there's some interesting models where people are. It's almost like we're not investing this stuff, but like private equity style. Do you just. Do you need the distribution? Do you start a startup? Or do you buy a company that is doing it an old way and kind of inject AI to change the cost structure? That sounds like literal to me, but I bet that there's a version of that that looks. That's 20 degrees off. That's. That's interesting.
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A
It's a good point. Like, I do wonder if it needs to be done in sort of a PE style way, because I think if not, it would probably just be so hard to sort of organ transplant the culture and potentially like do some business model destruction.
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B
The way one person described it to me was picture you spend money on customer acquisition, right?
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A
Yeah.
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B
What if the best way to acquire customers is to hire a company that has customers? Like, that's an like. Okay, like if the math work is better like that, then the question is, can you integrate it? Can you? You know, um, people are talking about service as software.
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A
Yeah.
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B
Where the thing that you present is, is the service and don't worry about how we do it. And you can use AI to do it. I think that's. I Think there's a bunch of business model questions. Interesting. Which takes me back to web gpu. Like, can you right now, where all of our assumptions are like, probably the cost of running inference comes down, but it's non zero. But what if it is fully zero? What does that change? What kind of products could you build? What kind of. Okay, here's a category that I'm kind of fascinated by. What kind of personalization happened? The best personalization? I also been like playing iPhone. I learned by just tinkering around with projects. So I've got this project where I took all the RSS feeds from New York local news. I pull them in and then you can write a prompt that will give you a newsletter about just the topics you care about, but you control the prompt. It's actually, it's not that expensive to run, but it's not zero because I have to.
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A
That's really interesting to me.
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B
Well, people can go to nysignal.com if they live in New York with most.
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A
Content platforms, you know, even the ones that are purely sort of personalized and algorithmic, like, they're ultimately optimized around ad revenue. And so it's really just about maximizing your engagement. And your engagement is really attached to like your revealed preferences, not like what you think your preferences are. You know, that's why like we're, we're addicted to TikTok. It's, you know, it's junk food. It's not broccoli. But if you had a model and you had a product that let you, like, you actively tune the personalization and like go to work for you, you'd have to fund it a different way. You probably, you can't fund it through ads. It just would never work. If you funded it through ads, it would just, it would just revert to junk food.
- [04:03]
B
The thought process I have is like, you know, you kind of picture with Tinder, any of these things. Like you're training a model. It's just it sits on their server. But imagine the model sits on your server and you're actually kind of controlling it. The problem with that is it's actually pretty expensive to run it that way.
- [04:21]
A
But not if you had web gpu.
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B
That's my, that like, is my high, like and observation. I don't know whether that's true or not, but I wonder if that is one of the second order implications.
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A
Well, why can't hold on just to pull on this a little bit. Why can't the model be on the server in this, in this model? Like it still could be user funded because saying it's just cost prohibitive.
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B
There's two different questions. One is it could be on the server. Right? That's what we're doing now. But it's running. It's now basically what we do is we score a bunch of articles through these RSS feeds our way and then separately, then we look at what your prompt is and score it against your specific prompt, which is a lot of iteration. What's the prompt you can be like, I am interested in? For me, mine says something like, I live in Brooklyn and I'm really interested in economic policy and jobs generally and in transportation. Don't give me any news about Trump. That's like what mine says unless it's specifically related to New York City. And that tends to get like, I don't want national politics news in this particular news though. That's not why I'm here. And it works. But I was talking to somebody else who's like, they're involved with like this canoeing thing on the waterfront. He's like, I really care about waterfront news. And like, that's an interesting prompt. Like, it never would have occurred to me to be like, give me all the news related to New York City Waterfront legislation is kind of an interesting prompt because, like, no one's ever going to come up with that. But the problem is so from a cost perspective, we got to run every article through his prompt. So if we have 100,000 users, there's a real cost. Yeah, Right. Then like that doesn't scale well. Unless either you have small models and run them and then that's possible. Right. Like the cost of running inference is coming down, but it's not zero. I don't know if there's a way to run that locally. You could make costs lower. And then what's kind of interesting is that people are willing to pay for these tokens because they know there's a cost to run them.
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A
Yeah, totally. That's why you're willing to spend probably as much as you do on suno.
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B
Yeah, Mike, I know you're not just like charging me otherwise. You're trying to make it as cheap as possible for me to do this stuff right as suno. But I do often run local models to see how long it would take. Exactly. Trade off often. Especially running our cpu. It's just time. But there isn't a music model I can even do that with. You know, there's some video. Video models. But the reason why I mentioned that is because technology isn't enough the business model matters. And what are the things that are changing that could like social media inverted a business model. Right. And tokens, I wonder, like, are they inverting a business model in some way? And if we then we can reduce that cost, like people are willing to pay for this stuff, is there something that will change that could make can make the business model fundamentally different?
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A
I wrote this blog post, the end of advertising. Clickbait, clickbaity title. I'm probably exaggerating about it being the end of advertising. Basically the whole premise is like, look, we're moving toward more and more towards the future where like agents are going out and capturing the information we want to know and understand on our behalf. Right. This is effectively what happens when you go to Perplexity or even like chatgpt when it goes out and browses the web. Like those things are going out and browsing the web and collecting the information and coming back to you and delivering you the exact one thing you want to know. Right. Even Google, Google's doing this now through AI summaries or answers or whatever it's called that is fundamentally disruptive to the existing business model of advertising in the Internet, which is the thing that makes the entire Internet free. Right. The reason the Internet is free is because you go to Google search, you search for a thing. I just searched for New York Signal. I wanted to find your website. I'm served a bunch of blue links. A few of them are sponsored. I click on one of them. That thing has ads on it. Right. Those ads end up funding the thing that I went to search for. Right. Like that's how New York Times and even like the smallest, tiniest blogs get funded.
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B
New York Times also subscriptions. But yeah, sure, sure. You get 10 games business. That's massive.
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A
Yeah. Now all of a sudden, if you have agents running around and not human eyeballs consuming these things, the incentives just pretty quickly go away unless you find a different way to incentivize the content creator. The. The solution that, that we're hoping it's an investment we announced a few days ago. It's this thing called tollbit, which basically blocks AI scraping and makes the scrapers, the AI scrapers pay a toll before serving the content for rag.
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B
That's interesting.
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A
Yeah. But you, I mean you could just see if we keep going down this path, which I think we will, the business model of the Internet is going to change. And it's easy to be like, well, ads will get figured out. Like ads will be injected into Perplexity and Google, you know, Google summer AI summaries and I don't think it's that simple, right?
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B
Like, I don't, I don't think I agree with you. I don't think, you know, if all of a sudden I had ads inside my trello, that would be quite annoying, right? Like I'm not there. I don't, I'm there to get stuff done, not to give you my attention.
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A
Correct.
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B
I certainly have to do lists that would be great to advertise against.
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A
But like, yeah, I'm sure it'll work to some extent. Perplexity will figure out ads. Google will figure out this new version of ads. ChatGPT will figure out this new version of ads. But like we can't say the economics are going to be the same. You and I just talked for 20 minutes about the economics of inference, right? Like it's different than serving a web page. I don't think we're talking or thinking enough about how much we effectively get for free today. And when I say free, I really mean like our attention and how much that is potentially at risk of going away as a result of AI.
- [09:54]
B
So I mean, that's interesting because compounding with that is with AI is more content. So if your attention. Somebody made a comment to me, that paper came out, it was called attention is all you need. And they're like, that couldn't be more true attention. If the cost of coding goes to zero and the cost of creating content goes to zero, then there is this. We think there's a lot of stuff on the Internet now to a lot of noise now it's going to whatever fold, right? Like if it a hundred folds now all of a sudden the value of someone's attention is that much higher because there's so much more noise. And I just wonder if they're going to be totally different ways to get people's attention. Like community has been for a little bit now. Like, are there just the current ways are just not going to be viable?
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A
Well, I also just think the value of premium content goes up right when you increase the supply. Assuming the supply finds some way to get monetized, the new supply, then the demand. I think for like the premium stuff, the good stuff is going to go up.
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B
I suppose another way to think about it though, like to take again the opposite argument, just as a thought experiment, is if we do things that are in kind of two buckets generally, which is probably not true, but let's say the two things we do are productivity and entertainment, it's kind of ironic because a lot of our entertainment right now is not advertising. It's like Netflix. I mean, I guess people, there's not a lot of ads inside of a lot of the YouTube.
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A
Spotify.
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B
Certainly YouTube, right? Is, is, has, has ads. Spotify has ads. But there is still paid, you know, stuff inside of, of entertainment. But if we think it's basically entertainment and productivity, the search is probably the number one place for productivity. Right. You go in there because you're trying to do something, even the thing you're trying to do. And discovery is probably someplace in the middle here because like sometimes you. It is productive to discover. But like having something on TikTok, probably not paying for TikTok. And I joke that Instagram is like a mall. It knows you, it's pretty good and it has a lot of stuff. It's like really targeted towards you. That probably doesn't change. But a lot of the productivity spaces in your agentic world, a lot of that user acquisition is sitting in the productivity category. And if those go down to zero, if there's no. If there's no ads.
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A
Well, it's probably everything that starts with a search. Right?
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B
Right.
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A
It's probably everything that starts with a Google search. Which by the way, while we're on this topic, I think these Google AI answers are like a really perfect glimpse of what's to come. Have you like spent time with this yet? It's not called AI Answers. I don't know what it's called.
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B
I mean I just. When I go to Google, I ignore all of the links because they are all ads. The entire first page is sponsored content.
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A
It's called AI Overview. The first thing is the answer to my question. Oh yeah, the links are very secondary. Why am I going to click on any of these links? I don't need to.
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B
How about I look up.
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A
Dude, what is aggregation theory? Ben Thompson, what is aggregation theory? Okay. Aggregation theory is a framework that describes how the Internet has been disrupted and how platforms come to dominate. And then there's a whole thing that explains it. Why would you ever go to Stratecheri? My point is, do you think, do you think Ben Thompson likes this?
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B
Well, he has subscription model, right?
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A
Sure. But now you don't even have a reason to go. Like you're not even gonna land on the website and subscribe.
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B
Yeah, I think that, I mean, I hear you. I think that for that if I want to learn something, I probably want to like keep. I mean we're. At some point maybe I'm using Google Search like Chat, right? Like, okay, cool. Now tell me about an example. Okay, then it gives me an example and I like, it looks a lot like chat, which is potentially interesting. I mean what I would love is like a video overview that like allows me to ask follow up questions and then generates, you know, even more of a response. Totally possible, right?
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A
For most people on the Internet. Maybe not the best of the best because you're right, they probably have other ways to monetize this. But for most people on the Internet, the two main incentives for why you would make anything, distribution and revenue are effectively gone by this.
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B
That could easily be true.
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A
Yeah.
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B
Your point is, what's the next thing? Is there another place where that discovery could happen?
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A
It happens within a model, probably. And like, well, not through a model because it wouldn't be trained on the real time information, but it happens via rag. Right. And so these answer engines, they become the operating system eventually.
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B
I do agree with that. I think my question is how deep are they? Or like, do you end up like Facebook? You ended up first, you did like, you know, you would do posts that would try to get a bunch of likes to go viral and then you could like promote those posts. Right. But like the ad unit was native to the new platform. Right. It wasn't like just run adsense. So the equivalent here would be, I guess I'm thinking like, okay, my example is I now have this YouTube channel and I kind of want to see if I could get some subscribers. What's the best way to get subscribers? And probably the answer is use a lot of keywords in the description. But I don't know if that's the answer. So I would type that question in, it'll start to give it to me. And then the question is what's below that? That is or isn't share? I want to go deep into that question. And right now there's probably some paid YouTube channel that will tell you how to get a bunch of users and how to monetize your YouTube channel, I would imagine. And it's like behind a paywall or they're like, oh, subscribe to my. They're like, buy my thing. Like somebody is on there telling you how to do this. Maybe they're good at it, maybe not. But they're like, buy my thing. And how different is that than providing just enough of an answer like Ben Thompson's answer to be like, buy my thing. So that when Nvidia's stock price goes up? I'm going to use aggregation theory to analyze why that's happened. There is a bunch of people who have created a social media native business model, which at the end of the day is freemium. They give you a little bit of stuff and then they charge you for the deeper stuff. And on the App Store, it's kind of turned out to be the same thing, right? Like headspace, you can have today's meditation, but if you want like the whole library or a bunch of features, you can, you can, you have to buy it. Ben Thompson. I'll give you one article or I'll give you the top half of the article and you can subscribe for the whole thing. The information does that. That's media, more media. But also fitness instructors do that, right? They go onto social media and they, they show some of their exercises, but the hope is that you subscribe to their fitness thing that didn't really exist pre social. And if you think about SEO, SEO is like the yelps of the world. We're saying, okay, we're going to make a bunch of landing pages. You're going to come on the landing page and eventually going to sign up and you're going to be part of this, and then we're going to be able to go charge. We're going to have a marketplace. I would imagine that the question I think you're asking is a good one and is we just sort of assume there's going to be a native AI way to do this and what if the answer is actually there? There isn't. Because, you know, like.
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A
Yeah, exactly. Exactly. We just assume it's all going to work out and it probably will to some extent, but it's not going to be the same. It's not just going to transfer over one to one that I'm sure of.
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B
I think it won't transfer over one to one. I think that the question that everyone's asking is, hang on a second. Is OpenAI trained on all of the stuff that I put out for free because I had this other business model expectation, and it'll be this moment in time. Like all the Internet up till 2025 looked like X and then people stopped publishing blog posts because they were not useful and they weren't getting monetized. To what degree is AI helpful if there's a fundamental disincentive to feed it stuff? And how much stuff do you really need? Do you need to be the 50th person to explain how to do a, in my example, like, you know, a workout or something?
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A
All the more reason, I think puts a premium on, like the Best content.
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B
Yeah. I mean, you kind of see that how open AI does deals, right? They're like, they don't need an infinite amount of information. They don't need the long term. They don't care. If they're the first one to give me the X thing I need, then, like, exactly.
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A
Then we're good.
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B
We're good.
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A
So I just think it's interesting. I just think it's really interesting.
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B
Because of Facebook's business model, they have an incentive to, like, bring people the Internet and at their own cost. Like, that's how good their monetization is. And yes, there's a cost, but it's only. Yes, it's your attention, but also it's only your attention. And the amount of people who, like, couldn't pay to have Gmail or couldn't pay to access the Internet or couldn't pay to connect to people, like, that's. It's just get more people to the Internet because they're like, it's amazing that everybody has this. I'll tell you the category. Can I switch gears for a second?
- [18:39]
A
Yeah, of course.
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B
A thing I've been thinking a lot about is if the cost of coding something goes to zero, and if you can build a niche product with one person who is really close to the problem, probably that person isn't officially a product manager. They're basically functioning like a product manager because they can make the design really easy over here and they can write the code over here. A question I've been asking myself is, like, I'll use Gmail as an example. Like, we all use one of, like, three email apps, right. Is that because there's one best email, there's basically one best product for everybody, or is there simply, like, is the business model of your attention such that we. And the cost of creating a new email app so high that this is kind of what we're ended up with. And actually, you could have. The email is like a bad example of this. Yeah.
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A
This is interesting.
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B
Like, what's the niche. What's the niche version of everything? And like, you know, you're.
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A
You're saying there are incumbent products and companies for which it's probably too expensive for a startup or an individual or even another company to attempt to compete. Because to build something like, that's 10x better for the general population or even just for yourself, the chances of it working or being that much better are so slim that it's not even worth it to compete.
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B
Or there's not even that much. Yeah. And there's and there's maybe not many people times the amount dollars that they would pay.
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A
But if the cost of software is effectively free, if the cost of building it is effectively free, building software is free, then you can have. Not only can you have these really like personalized experiences, like on demand, but you could also have sort of the best version of software for any use case on the Internet.
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B
I did this with my piano bar app, right? So I play the piano bar and I always test software, like to take piano requests. So I used Bubble, the no code app. And in eight hours, that's probably generous. It's probably shorter than that. I built basically Trello for me and a QR code for the person who's at the piano bar where they can scan it, enter a song. It comes into my inbox. I can tap it. It goes to the main thing. I tap it and go to archive. I've already played it. Then I add it on. Okay, here's my Venmo or. Oh, wait a second. I can integrate it with Stripe. And now I can actually see the tip on the Trello card effectively, right? So now I'm taking tips. That's pretty unique to a piano player. I actually want a button that will. Just a quick button to get to the lyrics of the chords. Just like do a quick. Just a quick short button to. Trello isn't building this right? And the only reason. So now I've got like a hundred piano players using it. They're generating like a decent amount of tips.
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A
Wow. Really?
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B
I've done zero marketing. I only.
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A
What's it called? We gotta link to it.
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B
It's called My request room. My request room.
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A
My request room. Is that the URL? My requestroom.com. here it is.
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B
So it's.
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A
You built this with in 8 hours.
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B
I built this with Bubble. I mean, I've added on features to it over time.
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A
Yeah.
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B
The truth is because I code, I could get like, you run into these things where you're like. And I charge people for it. That's like, generates revenue. Piano players pay for it. Piano bars pay for it. And the pitch to them is like, you can probably get more tips, but also you can collect, like people can opt in to like, take my email. I could grow your email list. And you have. So there's like, this is. I like this example because there's a very small dollar budget for like piano players. Like, they're not spending a lot of money on software.
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A
No startup would ever invest in this, right?
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B
Like no venture. They would never invest their time in.
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A
This, there's no big business here, right?
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B
But if you're really close to the problem and so you know exactly what you need as a user and you have some distribution because you're in the community of piano players or piano bars and then you're, you can use. In my case, no code. No code was like, I, you know, bubble is a really good product. I think actually you end up still needing to understand a little bit of code you run into. You end up running to walls. But then what happens when the cost. You actually don't. Right now what if I can ask it? Imagine this where it's genuine code and I could say, hey, I want a button here that does this. Okay, cool.
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A
You might be able to do that today. Literally, I think in ChatGPT you can, you could probably build my request room today.
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B
I now don't code anymore. I just copy paste things into ChatGPT and now I've found that like using Replit, which has basically got like the chat incorporated incorporate into it, there's a company called Polymet that lets you do build react interfaces where you can take a picture of a drawing and say what you want it to do and then you can hover over it. We invest in this company, you can hover over this button and be like, oh wait, no, when I hover over this one, when you click on it, you can say with language, when I hover over this button, I want germ blue. Yeah, I don't even have to know how to decode react and now I just have to meld that into the back end. And all of a sudden, truly, without being able to code, you have to kind of be able to have systems thinking and you have to be able to not build product. I think the extreme version of this is like imagine every user request was actually every time somebody requested a feature, imagine that the AI just built did a pull request. Right. I could actually end up with a terrible product because you just have this Frankenstein thing. But I think that spirit is kind of interesting.
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A
Is this like the moment for product managers? Like it almost felt like there was a moment where like product managers were going to go extinct because it just seems like, you know, engineers got really good at design and at like taste and you know, in terms of cost cutting, it was like, why would you hire a pm? It's sort of like this middle unnecessary layer. Does AI actually make it go back in the other direction? Where if you're a PM or a non technical founder, it's just like boom. I could just make stuff.
- [24:38]
B
Now I actually agree with that in two places. In the non venture backed stuff, the person who matter like what, what a true, I mean product manager means. I mean different, different companies. The person who can translate a user need and you know, the person who can say you're not asking for a faster horse is the person who can use all of this software to build a new thing. Right?
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A
Yeah.
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B
Which I think is a product manager. I think at companies too though. Going from the OpenAI playground to the answering the question what is the best way for people to engage with this API we've built. The answer. It took three years to figure out that that answer was ChatGPT. Like that was an invention. I know that it seems really simple and it seems dumb, but if it was that obvious they would have done at the beginning. It was an experimentation around what do users want, how do we help people engage with this thing. And I think we are at, I think that will look like the equivalent of like what Ms. DOS looked like to having Windows is like chatgpt will look like Ms. DOS and we are all trying to figure out what Windows looks like. I think that the product manager, the true product manager is needed both at these small, you know, companies but also at these big companies, meaning products that are genuine AI research that still needed, need to have a user interface invented. You know, prompt engineering is, is sort of like a way to communicate with these models. I don't, I personally don't think that that's the be all handle on how we're going to communicate with them.
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A
Yeah, I was surprised to learn I won't name the product or the company, but a product, an AI product that is very, very beloved and growing very, very quickly. Right now like 90% of the magic is prompt engineering. It's just like all prompting. Like it's just there's a couple people in the company. All they do all day is they, they, they prompt.
- [26:34]
B
I'm going to ask you as a vc, do you look at that and say A, I don't care how they do it as long as the product they make is great. Do you look at that and say B, if you're deciding, I think about like this spectrum of prompt engineering to, to fine tuning as basically this trade off of where the customizing is happening. Fine tuning sounds better to me. Like it sounds more investable. But for you as a vc, do you care if the product is getting worked, is working? Do you worry that prompt engineering isn't defensible? Do you worry that or are you like I don't care, as long as it's good.
- [27:11]
A
I don't care if there are other defensible aspects, right? Like if there are network effects or if there's some data moat that gets created or like, I don't care. I don't care if, if, if it's like, I feel like this, like, this term, like, you know, rapper, like GPT rapper has become like a dirty word. And like, haven't we always just been building rappers on top of technology and like finding ways to make the brands really defensible or get network effects or whatever, like make the lock in, whatever. There's. We've always had to find ways to make products defensible. I don't really have a problem with that.
- [27:50]
B
Yeah, I think I. So I agree with you on the. I think that the rapper thing is a. I do think there are products which are only rappers. They don't have their own defensibility. I think that is a. Yeah, sure. But the reason why we call them rappers is because they don't have defensibility, not because, like the rappers are sort of incidental. I kind of think about Twilio, right? Like is you group me was kind of a Twilio rapper, right?
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A
It's.
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B
It's all like, Twilio existed and so.
- [28:13]
A
They built like crazy network effects, right? Because once you brought a bunch of users on, you had a, you had a graph, you have a, you know, like.
- [28:19]
B
And it was a really good product built on top, right?
- [28:23]
A
Totally.
- [28:23]
B
And over time it was very obvious that it should also be an app, right? And like it's. There's a whole bunch of reasons and. But then you look at, okay, what are the other things that are text based? Are they just rappers on Twilio? All the way to the extreme of like, okay, so if I'm getting a text update from, from cvs, I'm certainly not. You know, no one would argue that CVS is a wrapper on top of Twilio, right? Maybe it's platform risk is like another way to articulate it.
- [28:47]
A
Yeah, platform risk. I think that's a great. I think that's a great way to. Yeah. Rapper as a derogatory term is really just another way of saying there's platform risk.
- [28:54]
B
Right. And that's totally legitimate. Sometimes there's platform risk like, and sometimes there's not. But you have to make. To discount an entire category of thing because they use an open API seems quite naive to me.
- [29:05]
A
Matt, always a pleasure. Love talking to you. Thanks for coming on. We gotta do it again sometime.
- [29:08]
B
Thanks so much for having me on Mike.
- [29:12]
A
Thanks for listening to Generative now. If you liked what you heard, please rate and review the podcast. That really does help. And please subscribe if you want to be notified next time we release new episodes. If you want to learn more about the podcast, follow Lightspeed Lightspeed VP on YouTube X or LinkedIn. Generative now is produced by Lightspeed in partnership with Pod People. I am Michael McNano and we will be back next week. See you then.