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Grain Farmers of Ontario
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Grain Farmers of Ontario is the province’s largest commodity organization, representing Ontario’s 28,000 barley, corn, oat, soybean and wheat farmers.
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Market Trends Report – April & May 2026
Apr 2700:12:14Tap to summarizeUS and the World It is that time of year again when planters are rolling across the Great North American corn belt. As always, there are variations on this theme depending on the weather. Some producers are going well, some are delayed by rain, and some haven’t even started yet. However, as we look into 2026, we have a world awash in grain but at the same time deeply troubled by geopolitical events in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. Our grain price environment equation is being buffeted every which way. On April 9th the USDA came out with their latest WASDE report. There were few changes coming from the USDA on April 9th. US corn production for 2025/26 Is still pegged at a record 17.02 billion bushels with a yield forecast of 186.5 bushels per acre. Corn ethanol usage came in at 5.6 billion bushels, feed and residual usage came in at 6.2 billion bushels and food seed and residual use and industrial use was projected at 6.97 billion bushels. This year US farmers surveyed came up with the figure of 95.3 million acres of corn which is down 3% from a year ago. Soybeans on the other hand are projected to be 84.7 million acres which is up 4% from last year. Winter wheat acreage is the lowest since 1919. On the soybean side of the equation old crop ending stocks are still set at 350 million bushels. USDA did trim its export estimate by 35 million bushels to 1.54 billion bushels. Total usage is set at 4.262 billion bushels. There was a lowering a world ending stocks reflecting some higher crushed estimates. Production in Brazil remains at 180 MMT and 48 MMT in Argentina. On the global side of things, wheat ending stocks actually increased slightly from the March estimate. On April 24th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. May 2026 corn futures was at $4.55 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.84 bu. The May 2026 soybean futures was at $11.78 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.55. The May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.08 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.76 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $7.09 a bushel.The nearby oil futures as of April 24th, 2026, closed at $94.40/barrel much lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $111.54/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.21/gallon, down vs the $2.25/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 24th, 2026, was .7311 US, up vs the .7185 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%. Ontario Wet weather has been a characteristic in the early spring throughout Ontario limiting field activity. However, there has been widespread side dressing nitrogen on the wheat with some acres left behind as of Saturday April 25th because of rain showers inundating Ontario. Producers will be looking for dry weather both to get this side dressing done as well as commence corn planting. Statistics Canada is estimating Ontario farmers will grow 2.316 million acres of corn this year and 2.894 million acres of soybeans. In Quebec we’re looking at 825 thousand acres of corn and a million acres of soybeans. Intuitively, the Ontario corn number doesn’t seem quite right especially with the higher fertilizer and fuel costs this spring. However, much of the corn acreage in the province will depend on spring weather. At this early date there is still wide opportunity to garner big corn acres the spring. The erosion in the Canadian dollar of a couple cents since the last Market Trends report is partly responsible for the lower soybean basis in Ontario. However, keep in mind that the short crop in eastern Ontario last year is resulting in a deficit of soybeans to export. This has led to basis strength especially a few weeks ago. At the same time there has been US corn imported into Quebec to satisfy some local requirements. It is all a function of price and as local prices approach the US replacement price, there will be corn imports. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.45 to $2.15 over the May 2026 corn futures on April 24th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.25 to $1.60 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.91 over the May 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.09 to $3.40 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.43. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.36/bu range. On April 24th the US replacement price for corn was $6.68/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line In many ways, it’s a new day. For some producers they may have old crop left in the bin but for others it is long in the rear view mirror. What we face as we go into planting our crops this year is risk that we’ve become accustomed to overtime. There are the fundamentals of grain which refers to the supply and demand but of course there is also the weather which we deal with all the time. As we look into 2026 weather concerns will continually dominate where we go. Outlier years like 2012 and 1988 will happen again. However, for the most part they are rare. Needless to say, we will be in a continual weather market until the crop is made. Another important point to realize as we move ahead is that grain fundamentals don’t seem to matter as much as they used to. For instance, right now the world is awash in grain especially coming off good crops from last year. At the same time futures prices have moved higher partly because of geopolitical events and partly because of things unknown. In many ways there is no connection to previous days no classic technical or fundamental analysis to apply. What we’re finding is that trading algorithms are dialed in to social media posts especially at the highest level of the American government and over the last several weeks this has made market prices go higher. Also too, with war in Iran much uncertainty has reigned and the trading algorithms have responded positively. It is always hard to know what will come next especially in this market environment. We know that the potential for another big crop in the United States followed by another big crop in South America is more or less likely. Keep in mind that also will be dialed into the grain trading algorithms. In fact, you might make an argument cash basis may become even more important depending on where you farm. At the end of the day, it is our cash prices which is the litmus test for our market decisions. The war in Iran continues and its effect on our agricultural markets will surely continue. Keep in mind that grain analysts are not military analysts, which creates a lot of noise within the marketplace. As it is, the energy market will continually be a place for big volatility. Soybean oil will be affected as well as our corn markets. We cannot ignore the daily headlines out of Iran. It will always be an influence until things settle down Commodity Specific Comments Corn Corn futures prices lost about $0.40 from their March highs and are currently working halfway back to those March levels. Whether they get there or not is another point of contention. For instance, at the present time we are planting new crop corn and you would think it would take a lot of weather delays and new news to have an effect on our old corn prices as we move forward. For new crop corn there has always been the discussion since the start of the war in Iran about how higher fuel and fertilizer prices might affect US acreage this spring. That debate is still ongoing, but it is probably more likely that weather will affect the corn acres vwesus the fuel and fertilizer debate. Keep in mind that earlier the USDA had forecast 95.3 million acres of corn to be planted this spring. The July 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 5.25 cents lower than the September 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 corn futures contract is at the 18th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Soybeans usually have a lot to say, but not so much for the moment. We have been in a trading range of about $0.25 up and down since the big drop on March the 12th. Keep in mind the Chinese have not been back to buy soybeans even though there is a US China summit supposed to be taking place in May. US export demand has been pretty nonexistent within this vacuum. We also know there are likely be more soybeans planted this year in the United States. It is no secret that at the present time South America and Brazil in particular owns the soybean market. They’ve had another record crop over 180 MMT and this will continue to permeate within soybean prices for the near future. As we move ahead, there would have to be another explosion in oil prices or some type of weather calamity in the United States to make this soybean price get much higher. The July 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 6.75 cents above the August contract considered bullish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 28th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat Wheat has been a bit of a bright spot in the agricultural commodity market, something that doesn’t usually happen. Remember, wheat is almos...
Transcribe →Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report April 5, 2026
Apr 600:12:16Tap to summarizeUS and the World The calendar date has changed and with that so has the psychology. Where we have been musing about old crop stocks for several weeks and months now, April 2026 will be the month where planters will really start to roll both in corn and soybeans. The March 31st USDA Prospective plantings report always serves as a benchmark for the new crop year ahead of us. Sometimes, this report can see explosive market action as the algorithms have it dialed in. With war raging it is an uneven time in markets. The March 31st report set this up for what we may be looking at in crop acreage this year. US producers surveyed across the United States will be planting less corn and more soybeans in 2026. The US corn acreage came in at 95.3 million acres which is down 3% from last year. On the soybean side of the ledger US soybean producers intend to plant 84.7 million acres in 2026 which is up 4% from last year. The winter wheat acreage for 2026 is estimated to be 43.8 million acres down 3% from 2025 and the lowest number since 1919. Winter wheat acreage planted area was set at 32.4 million acres which is down 2% from last year.The acreage numbers are very similar to a year ago. Keep in mind that that could change greatly over the year ahead. Case in point is if you look over the last 20 years the average corn change between March intentions and final plantings is 1.634 million acres with soybeans at 1.868 million acres. The biggest swings during this have been 6.5 million acres for corn and 8.5 million acres for soybeans. So, despite the USDA report on March 31st being important there are always variations on the theme as we move ahead. On April 3rd corn, soybeans and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. May 2026 corn futures was at $4.52 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.81 bu. The May 2026 soybean futures was at $11.63 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.54. The May 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.98 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.46 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.76 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of April 2nd, 2026, closed at $111.54/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $98.71/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.25/gallon, up vs the $2.16/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 2nd, 2026, was .7185 US, down vs the .7291 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%. Ontario In Ontario, it’s that time of year when everybody’s getting ready to plant. However, there have been hints of spring with a few warm days but so far is not wide open. Side dressing of nitrogen on wheat has barely started early in April with uneven weather. Needless to say, the wheat crop looks good although are there are a few poor fields from winter kill in specific areas. Basis levels are very close to the same or slightly higher than they were since the last Market Trends report. Eastern Ontario corn basis which has been significantly higher than southwestern Ontario has eroded slightly. This likely will continue to be volatile throughout 2026 because of the short crop in this area last year. The soybean basis is largely affected by the volatility in the Canadian dollar and with it fluttering in the $0.71 range soybean basis has been strong. Basis is always a reflection of supply and demand within your local area, however, as usual Canadian basis levels reflect greatly the value of the Canadian dollar. This is especially true for soybeans and wheat. It has been accentuated lately by the big moves in futures values caused by the war in Iran. If this continues, we should expect continuing volatility on basis levels. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.45 to $2.15 over the May 2026 corn futures on April 2nd across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.25 to $1.69 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.30 to $4.24 over the May 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.20 to $3.55 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.43. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.40/bu range. On March 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.76/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line It’s been all about the war for the last two weeks but at a certain point you become numb to the pain. In other words, even the markets get the war dialed in. However, keep in mind that this price volatility isn’t going to go away, and it has been significant. For instance, after the January USDA report corn went down $0.50 a bushel. The rally in May futures did regain all of that and more before trailing off. Who would have expected that after the January limit down move. As it is, with war dialed in to the algorithms we’ve seen a 22-month high in both corn and soybeans. Of course, the question is what happens now? With war raging in the Middle East affecting the price of oil it is also hard to say. However, prices are higher now than we’ve become accustomed to over the last 18 to 24 months. Closing your eyes for a minute and imagine a trading world without the war and we would likely see a far different picture. Think about seasonality, think about the spring weather, and think about “hot and dry” that may come this summer. At this point in early April, we are sitting better than we expected, almost a gift on the price front. US farmers produced 17.02 billion bushels of corn last year. Will that happen again and if it does will prices stay where they are? Keep in mind it’s usually around the middle of June going into the July 4th weekend new crop corn reaches its high point. Soybeans are made in August which likely will be the same this year. However, there are always variations on the theme, and we’ll need to manage that risk looking ahead into a 2026 growing season. Crude oil is always a default when it comes to the prices of our agricultural commodities. It is always part of the Market Trends report but in 2026 it is really changing the game. We have seen about a doubling in price of crude oil in the last 30 days with the resulting increase in the price of gasoline, diesel fuel and other distillates. Who knows if it’s over and who knows if $200 oil is possible. It’s a war thing, but it is reality. Our grain prices to some extent are taking a lead from oil but of course they are much more reluctant than oil probably will be Commodity Specific Comments Corn One of the bigger questions this spring is how much corn will be shifted into soybeans because of higher fertilizer prices. Estimates vary but about 75% of fertilizer has already been put down for corn in the United States mitigating much of that move. However, we never know and for the remaining acres it definitely could shift out of corn. Keep in mind, the American farmer loves growing corn and even with higher fertilizer prices it’s hard to see new crop acreage going down much further than what the USDA estimated. Simply put, we are well supplied with corn in the United States. On March 1st, USDA put quarterly stocks at 9.024 billion bushels. That was slightly lower than the trade expected. Keep in mind that demand for this corn has been off the chart this year and price has been partly accentuated since the drop off in January by the war going on in the Middle East. The May 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 11.75 cents lower than the July 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2026 corn futures contract is at the 18th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans The soybean rally started back in late January possibly to the notion that the market wanted to buy soybean acres. However, we know after that that the forces of the world took over with war starting to rage in Iran. The funds have also piled on hoping to ride the wave up. This is happening despite big supplies coming out of South America. Sometimes, things just don’t make sense. Earlier we had been looking at the Trump meeting with President Xi of China as the flash point for American soybean buying. However, that meeting was postponed with a result in the decrease in the price of soybeans. Keep in mind that meeting is now rescheduled for May and market algorithms will be dialed into renewed buying from China for American soybeans. It’s like betting on how noisy can a firecracker pop. Trading algorithms pay attention to these news items and as we get closer to the meeting in May, so the prices will be sensitive to it. The May 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 16 cents below the July contract considered bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 26th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat Wheat prices are higher than they’ve usually been, which should set off celebrations in the wheat complex. However, we know that some of this is ...
Transcribe →Market Trends Report – March & April 2026
Mar 1600:11:06Tap to summarizeUS and the World In mid-March it is that time of year when planters are either rolling in the southern regions of the American corn belt or are being adjusted for the planting season that is almost upon us. It has been an eventful winter to say the least with prices advancing especially in the last few weeks with war breaking out in the Middle East between the United States, Israel, and Iran. War markets are never easy to explain, always filled with uncertainty. It will make it challenging as all of our planters get ready to roll. Amid all of this upset, the USDA released their latest WASDE report on March 10th. The March USDA report was a bit of status quo compared to reports of the past. There were no domestic changes for corn soybeans and wheat but a few changes globally. US corn production is still pegged at 17.02 billion bushels with the yield forecast of 186.5 bushels per acre. This is a huge number which should remain a benchmark for all producers this year. Total domestic use for US corn is still pegged at 13.17 billion bushels with ending stocks coming in at 2.127 billion bushels. USDA increased Brazil’s corn production by 1 MMT to 132 MMTs. Argentinian Production was decreased by the same amount down to 30.7 MMTs. These were all the same from the February report, but the US crush was increased slightly to 2.575 billion bushels. The total soybean usage was projected at 4.262 billion bushels reflecting the slight increase in the soybean crush. Soybean ending stocks are still projected to come in at 350 million bushels. Brazilian soybean production was kept the same at 180 MMTS but Argentinian soybean production was actually decreased slightly down to 48 MMTs. US domestic wheat stocks were unchanged from 931 million bushels. Globally, wheat stocks were down slightly from the February report. On March 14th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. May 2026 corn futures was at $4.67 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.91 bu. The May 2026 soybean futures was at $12.25 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.61. The May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.13 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.45 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.75 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of March 13th closed at $98.71/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.89/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.16/gallon, up vs the $2.03/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on March 13th, 2026, was .7291 US, down vs the .7345 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%. Ontario Winter is still holding on in Ontario although there was a bit of a thaw in early March where much of the snow disappeared. On the weekend of March 14th some areas of Ontario were hit again with heavy snow. The winter wheat that has emerged from the snow looks quite good at this time. Producers will be hoping for good weather ahead. Basis levels for grains have increased slightly over the last 30 days partly related to the Canadian dollar still under $0.73 and or the appreciation in grain futures value. There is not as much grain in Ontario bins as there usually is especially in eastern Ontario and basis does reflect this. Basis levels in Ontario are also fluid and will probably continue to be throughout 2026 until harvest time. Yes, we still have a lot of empty space in eastern Ontario because of the drought last year. We will have to see how that changes depending on the crop develops this summer. On top of that we always have the movement of the Canadian dollar which will affect basis levels to producers. All of this is a moving target and something that producers always have to have their eye on. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.30 to $2.28 over the May 2026 corn futures on March 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.60 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.25 to $4.04 over the May 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.04 to $3.34 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.56. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.40/bu range. On March 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.89/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line Forget about what you been thinking, it’s all about the war now. About four years ago we saw what the Ukraine and Russia war did to the commodity market with wheat exploding higher. However, it was unexpected to some extent when the Americans and Israelis attacked Iran about 12 days ago and with that it upset the grain market apple cart. Funds who had been net short the market suddenly were exiting their positions. Also too, the price of oil exploded and there was spillover effect in grains. It simply is a new world in 2026. Keep in mind it is so difficult to know where we’re going. Much of it will depend on how long it lasts but is likely to last long. The oil market was languishing in the $50s and $60s but now pushed up toward $120.00 briefly on the futures market. The Strait of Hormuz have been blocked which is transit to about 20% of the world’s oil. In many ways this is a Black Swan we didn’t see coming. For a world that is full of grain seemingly only a few weeks ago now there is a completely different planning horizon. Prices have risen substantially over the last month and especially in the last two weeks. This is happening despite bearish fundamentals that have kept the lid on grain prices for quite some time. It will also probably raise the specter of extreme volatility as we could be facing a world calamity not seen in quite a few years. The Brazil harvest in soybeans is coming to a completion and it is record setting once again. As these soybeans are being harvested, planters are in the fields with the second crop of corn for Brazil. This means that there will not only be the war risk, but we are also in a weather market watching how much moisture these new corn plants will be provided. There is a world of risk out there. Commodity Specific Comments Corn With the war on going, it is no secret that prices are going higher for both fuel and fertilizer. With corn a bigger user of fertilizer than soybeans it would seem that the funds are remaining a little bit more neutral on the corn acres that could be planted this spring. We will find that out in the March 31st USDA report. In the meantime, to some extent corn will follow the price of oil and the funds are setting up to go long depending on the immediate future. At the present time they don’t have a big, long position, but this could certainly change and when it changes to could change in a big way. However, the state of acres for 2026 is still in flux. Earlier the USDA had pitched 94 million acres of corn in their outlook conference. The May 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 11.25 cents lower than the July 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2026 corn futures contract is at the 19th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans The soybean market has been fairly effusive even before the war started. It also is sensitive to the social media posts coming out of the White House. Earlier, the American president had said that he hoped China would come in and buy an extra 8 MMTs of soybeans in the immediate future. Since then, there hasn’t been any American beans sold and Brazilian beans are still a dollar a bushel below American values. There is a meeting scheduled in Beijing between President Trump and President Xi at the end of March and early April. It’s hard to know now exactly what will come from this meeting especially with the war going on. However, it has not been beyond the realm of possibility that new soybean buying announcements would come from this meeting. However, the new price volatility caused by the war may eat that narrative alive. Earlier the USDA had mused about 85 million soybean acres for this year in the United States. That number will be refreshed on March 31st, and it certainly also will be enhanced by any announcement coming from the potential meeting of the leaders in Beijing. The May 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 12.5 cents below the July contract considered bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 33rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat There is wheat everywhere but keep in mind that this is war and wheat prices are up about a dollar a bushel since the end of January. With the war seemingly chasing out the market bears, it is likely that wheat prices will be a bit more sensitive to weather concerns going forward such as dryness in many of the worlds production areas where wheat is coming out of dormancy. It’s also true that wheat might just be explosive based on a volatile nature of war in the Strait of Horm...
Transcribe →Market Trends Report – February & March 2026
Feb 1700:12:19Tap to summarizeUS and the World Winter is still with us but if you look really hard you might see signs of spring. It is the time of year which can be quiet on farms across the greater North American corn belt. However, as the days go by their surely will be more warmth coming over the land with visions of planters heading out into the field. At the same time in South America, harvest and planting are in full swing. That is creating all kinds of variables for market action. Then there is the USDA which chimed in with their latest WASDE report on February the 10th. As reports go the February report is often quiet because it’s sandwiched between the bigger January reports and the later Prospective Planting report in late March. This USDA report did not veer from that script. In the report US corn ending stocks were reduced 100 million bushels but they’re still the largest in seven years. Also too, world stocks outside of the US and China are still tight and there were no changes to South American corn estimates. Corn exports were increased by 100 million bushels up to 3.3 billion bushels which is a record for corn exports. Corn exports are sitting at 2.127 billion bushels. On the soybean side of the ledger US balance sheet remain unchanged from January. There was an increase in production in Brazil which had been widely expected. Brazil soybean production is now expected to be 180 MMTs which is up to 2 MMTs from last month. Simply put, it was a quiet report for soybeans. US soybean ending stocks remained at 350 million bushels. World wheat ending stocks or increased 5 million bushels from last month currently sitting at 931 million bushels. On February 13th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.31 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.64 bu. The March 2026 soybean futures was at $11.33 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.13. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.71 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.14 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of February 13th closed at $62.89/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $59.44/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.03/gallon, up vs the $1.97/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on February 13th, 2026, was .7345 US, up vs the .7188 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%. Ontario In Ontario it has been an icy cold winter leading up to February the 14th. Parts of Ontario in the snow belt north and West of London as well as toward Barrie have an inundated with snow most of the winter and relief would be welcome. Hopefully this created an environment where winter wheat could survive underneath all the snow. Producers will be looking for some respite as we go into March to facilitate grain movement and production plans for 2026. In the meantime, Agricorp released final figures on last year’s crop putting Ontario corn at 191 bushels per acre and soybeans at 46 bushels per acre. Ontario basis levels have hardly changed for grains over the last 30 days since the last Market Trends report. In fact, there’s been a slight improvement in some parts of Ontario with eastern Ontario showing historical advantage on the corn basis. Very surely some of this is because of the terrible yields that were experienced in parts of eastern Ontario last year. As we move ahead it’s pretty clear in this part of Ontario and into Quebec that they will need corn to satisfy their needs. The Canadian dollar remains a significant stimulus to cash grain prices. This has happened even though the Canadian dollar did gain almost $0.02 over the last 30 days. Part of the issue has to do with the American dollar sinking and inversely the Canadian dollar gaining within that paradigm. This will likely continue because the American dollar is seeing pressure it is not seen before partly resulting from some of the political moves being made in the United States. For instance, the American President recently commented that he thought it was a good thing that the US dollar was going down. Foreign exchange markets are more complicated than that but their trade algorithms feed on those comments too. As we move ahead Ontario grain producers should be focused on the value of the Canadian dollar as always but also keep abreast of what’s happening with the US dollar. The two are highly inversely interrelated. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.15 over the March 2026 corn futures on Feb 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.47 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.69 over the March 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.90 to $3.06 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.02. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.72 bu. range. On February 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.28/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line We are at somewhat of a standstill in grain prices. Or is this the start of something new even to the point of kidding ourselves for a bit thinking it might be the start of a bull market. All three grains have shown a little bit of resilience in the last 10 days meaning something might be up. That might be China coming in and buying US corn and even more soybeans and it may not be. However, corn prices have recovered from the downdraft from the January USDA report and soybeans have moved much higher. Geopolitics is always a factor when it comes to grain prices and China is usually part of that equation. In fact, you might say it’s always old news. Last year they didn’t buy American soybeans until there was some type of dialogue with the American President. This year there seems to be more optimism by the Americans that the Chinese might come around. Part of that is based on their better relationship and the specter that President Trump will be visiting China in April. In many ways this is key. You’ve got to believe in the run up to that meeting there will be social media posts from the President about selling more soybeans and corn to China. Our trading algorithms feed on that phenomena. The only way to capture market opportunities from this is to have standing market orders ready. A weather market it continues to be if you consider South American production. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics recently reported that the Safrinha corn planting had reached 46% by mid-February. This is a touch behind where it usually is. At the same time keep in mind that on the Chinese Dalian corn futures exchange prices have been rising since last October. Corn is not quite like wheat; it is grown mostly in the United States but even still producers should keep an eye on market information about the Safrinha crop. Traders in China are looking at that too. As we move into March there will certainly be a shift for some producers from old crop to new crop. Keep in mind that every day of the year is an opportunity to buy and sell grain. 2025 did not offer a very long period of profitable grain pricing opportunities. Who knew we would see some of our largest price increases during harvest time? As we move ahead the March Prospective Planting report looms as a major market mover. However, in the relatively bearish environment which we find ourselves in a big change in acres might not be significant to market action until we actually see what gets planted in late June and July. Commodity Specific Comments Corn As we all know demand for US corn continues to be record setting. This is a very good thing considering that we had 17.02 billion bushels last year. Add a certain point there will be a small tussle for acres between corn and soybeans. Will corn acres be about 95 million this year compared to 99 last year? If they are that is reduction of 4 million acres of corn a fairly major move in the market environment we are in now. We will see if that happens and of course there will be estimates released in late February on the number of acres, but the big prediction will be coming at end of March USDA Prospective Plantings report. Any variation on the script like China buying US corn because there’s has quality concerns will certainly weigh on prices. Simply put, there is so much risk for price as we look ahead toward blowing off the dust on those corn planters. The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 10.5 cents lower than the May 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 11th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans There is a lot going on in soybeans, possibly increased China buying, a resilient soybean oil market not only with exports abroad but also increased domestic consumption within the United States and possible quality issues in Brazil. For instance, all of these factors are relevant, but the earlier harvested soybeans in the no...
Transcribe →Market Trends Report – January & February 2026
Jan 1900:11:58Tap to summarizeWritten by Philip Shaw BSc(Agr.)MSc. Email: philip@philipshaw.ca Social Media X @Agridome US and the World January always represents a pivotal time in grain markets as well as farms across the Great North American corn belt. There is always a recalibration but much of it usually has to do with the January USDA report which represents the final numbers on the crop put to bed last year. Future spreads and basis are important but so are the numbers in these USDA reports as they are dialed in to the trading algorithms which generate futures prices around the clock. The January report historically can be explosive for volatility. This year was one of those years. On January 12th the USDA raised corn production to 17.02 billion bushels increasing yield by half a bushel as well as increasing harvested acreage. The corn yield is now forecast to be 186.5 bushels per acre which was way above pre report estimates. The USDA also bumped harvested acreage by 1.3 million acres pushing it up to 91.3 million acres. This was a shock to the market and nearby corn futures plummeted $0.24 on the day. Old crop carryover was bumped up to 1.551 billion bushels while new crop carryover was increased to 2.227 billion bushels. While the corn number was wildly bearish, soybeans were much more benign in comparison to corn. The USDA had a slightly increased harvested acreage of 80.4 million. It kept yield unchanged at 53 bushels per acre putting the total domestic crop at 4.262 billion bushels in 2025. The new crop ending stocks for soybeans totaled 350 million bushels which was up 60 million bushels from last month. The USDA increased Brazilian production to 178 MMTs while keeping Argentinian production at 48.5 MMTs. USDA set planted area for winter wheat in 2026 to be 33 million acres which is down 1% from last year and 2% from 2024. On January 16th corn and soybean futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. Wheat was higher. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.24 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.49 bu. The March 2026 soybean futures was at $10.76 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.69. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.18 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.65 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.04 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of January 16th closed at $59.44/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $57.44/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $1.97/gallon, down vs the $2.04/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on January 16th, 2025, was .7188 US, down vs the .7263 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%. Ontario This is a more classic Canadian winter than we’ve had in the near past. Snow and cold temperatures have inundated large parts of the province which can be a double-edged sword. Yes, it is normal Canadian January weather but at the same time there is still some Ontario corn left out in the field. Also too, the snow cover will provide some insulation for the winter wheat lying dormant underneath it. Basis levels are either the same or have increased slightly since the last Market Trends report. This reflects the Canadian dollar still fluttering below the 72 cent US level. The Ontario corn basis level is similar to what it has been in the past few years with the eastern Ontario basis being much higher than southwestern Ontario. This is historical but it also reflects dry weather experienced in much of eastern Ontario this year hurting corn yields. Both corn and soybeans will be exported out of Ontario and Quebec this year. All of it is a reflection of price but it’s also a reflection of infrastructure. Port expansions and improvements at ADM Windsor, Port of Oshawa, the new Picton terminals, the Port of Goderich, and the Port of Johnstown will only help grain movement. Exports are one thing and value-added domestic opportunities are another. The latter would be preferable and hopefully many new value-added projects are in the pipeline Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.26 over the March 2026 corn futures on Jan 16th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.45 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.55 over the March 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.91 to $3.11 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.61. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.57 bu. range. On January 16th the US replacement price for corn was $6.32/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line The USDA hit us pretty hard with the big surprise hardly anybody expected. When you see the USDA final number on corn come in outside the various trade estimates it means almost everybody was surprised. Of course, the biggest surprises were the increase in yield and the much bigger corn harvested acreage increase. One might ask how does the USDA predict 4.5 million acres of corn harvested then they predicted last July? It’s fuel for the conspiracy theorists. It will likely be a few years before we truly understand what happened. However, one theory that is being reported is the good crop with good yields filled up bunker silos with silage earlier than normal. What happens when these silos are full, then the rest of the corn goes into the pipeline and shows up in harvested acreage. There was a 1.3 million acre increase in harvested acres which would result in 200 million bushels of additional yield. The market simply was not expecting this. The USDA report was not particularly bearish on soybeans compared to corn. However, acreage was up slightly. Keep in mind that crush statistics are very good in the United States reflecting their commitment to biodiesel. For instance, the soybean crush is up approximately 285 million bushels over the last two years. There are commitments for an increased share of soybeans going to biodiesel. In 2025 this number was 3.3 billion gallons for biodiesel. The hope is to get it up to 5.5 billion gallons in 2026 and beyond. This blending credit equation is possibly being delayed by the supreme court considering the legality of tariffs. The blending credit is highly political and will be affected by the run up in the midterm elections. Commodity Specific Comments Corn 17.02 billion bushels of corn was a real wake up call for the corn market and it is hard to shake the big negativity. Keep in mind that old crop took the brunt of this and December corn held up relatively well. Last year December corn did not get above $4.80 a bushel and at the present time we’re hovering around $4.50 a bushel. It is splitting hairs but in a bearish environment that might be a positive. Keep in mind that the 2.2 billion bushel ending corn stocks created by such a big crop puts a cushion on any price increase for old crop corn. However, keep in mind there is lots of risk ahead. We still have to get through the Brazilian Safrinha crop as well as our new North American corn crop. We are always only one weather event away from a price increase. The world needs the corn as demand is so strong. The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 7.25 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 9th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Believe it or not even with the slightly bearish tone in soybeans from the USDA report, prices are still in a yearly uptrend. The decrease in price since mid-October might have dialed in a lot of the bearishness of late. Keep in mind that the gorilla in the room China has already bought 12 MMTs of American soybeans and there is unlikely to be more. Trade wars might be easy to win but it’s pretty clear China is looking elsewhere for their soybeans. Who could blame them with Brazil set to produce another 178 MMTs soybean crop. This continues to weigh on soybean prices in both the short and long term. The March 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 11 cents below the March contract considered neutral for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat Wheat is bearish but what else is new. In fact, with such a bearish USDA report you would think that maybe wheat would join in sending everything down. However, that did not happen in many ways the wheat complex shook off the bearish nature of the move in corn. Also too, the Chicago futures contract has holding above the $5.00 level when there are probably a few reasons to go lower. In many ways, you might say that the wheat prices have the negativity already priced in. Keep in mind and the last USDA report had wheat domestic stocks and global stocks raised. With Ontario wheat currently underneath, snow cover it is always hard to tell where we’re at. With the likely number around 1 million acres of wheat Ontario producers ...
Transcribe →Market Trends Report – December 2025 & January 2026
Dec 1500:12:07Tap to summarizeUS and the World The changeover in the calendar year always represents a shifting of the gears in our grain marketing outlook. At least in North America it seems that way with winter settling in with most of the crops in the bin. At the same time in South America, it is the middle of their summer. This means that all of the marketing factors with regard to crop weather are weighing into the price discovery equation. Needless to say, the mechanics of markets go on whether you change gears or not. It has been an incredibly good growing season this past year in North America. On December the 9th the USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report. The December USDA report is usually a non-starter wedged between harvest in the United States and the January report which is usually much bigger from a market standpoint. This December report reflected not only that but also the slow regeneration of numbers coming out of the US government shutdown. The biggest change from the December report was reflected in the corn export number which was increased 125 million bushels from last month up to 3.2 billion bushels which is record territory. This brought down the corn ending stocks for 2025/2026 to 2.029 billion bushels down that 125 million bushels from last month. Everything else remained the same including the 16.752 billion bushels of corn production from this year. The soybean numbers remained the same from last month with US production at 4.253 billion bushels with a yield of 53 bushels per acre. Soybean exports at 1.635 billion bushels was unchanged from November. Brazilian production remained at 175 MMTs and in Argentina at 48.5 MMTs. The wheat numbers were also the same except for world ending stocks were actually increased this month to 274.87 MMTs, up from 271.43 MMTs in November. On Dec 12th corn and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. Soybeans were lower. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.40 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.62 bu. The January 2026 soybean futures was at $10.76 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.88. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.29 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.75 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.12 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of December 12th closed at $57.44/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $60.09/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.04/gallon, down vs the $2.12/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on December 12th, 2025, was .7263 US, up vs the .7130 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.25%. Ontario Corn harvest is continuing in Ontario. As of December 13th, there is still a significant amount of Ontario corn still left in the field. Let’s estimate that at about 20 to 25%. We got here because of heavy snow that came early in December and looks to be staying as the month wore on. Much of this snow and cold temperatures is preventing any significant harvest progress in areas where it is apparent. Some of this Ontario corn we’ll be waiting till spring to be harvested. Production estimates vary but it looks like we’re looking at winter wheat acreage this past fall in a range between 1.046 million acres and 1.18 million acres. This is significant especially when you consider the low prices of wheat. It would seem that Ontario producers always need a good fall weather forecast to get wheat planted and 2025 was good. For many of those wheat acres they’re under a blanket of snow now even in the deep south west of the province. Ontario basis levels for corn has hardly moved from the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar has been fluttering within the $0.71 range during this time currently at.7263 US. There also is the spectre of crop still in the field in some parts of Ontario as well as uneven supply in others. Corn yields in Ontario overall are likely down from last year even with the huge yields in the deep south west of Ontario. The soybean basis has increased slightly from last month partly reflecting the moves in the Canadian dollar. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the March 2026 corn futures on Dec 12th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.45 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.18 to $3.50 over the January 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.87 to $3.13 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.49. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.56 bu. range. On December 12th the US replacement price for corn was $6.49/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line The December 9th USDA report can only be considered neutral for price action as of early December. At the same time that this was happening we did see the price of soybeans start dropping rather significantly into the report and it is continued into mid-December. Part of this is the realization that China is not going to come to the rescue as well as good South American weather and a record South American crop on its way once again. Earlier the Chinese had agreed to buy 12 MMTs of soybeans from the United States. This came out of the presidential meetings between President Trump and President Xi. This is happening with small purchases of US soybeans amounting to about half of that as of now. That commitment should be fulfilled by the end of February even when South American soybeans are cheaper. In reality, there’s really no reason for China to buy anymore American soybeans especially in the political climate we have today. That is, of course as long as the South American crop does not get in trouble. The US government shutdown was significant for market action in November going into December. For the week ending November 22nd fund buying was off the chart for both corn and soybeans and much of this had to do with the vacuum of USDA information. In fact, USDA number since then have not supported this fund buying and this is partly why we’ve seen the funds exciting their longs over the last week from December the 12th. Clearly, these things can happen when USDA information is dialed into algorithms. As we move ahead, we might expect these algorithms to retrench based on more bearish USDA information. Of course, there are all kinds of issues that affect market price but at the end of the day a weather market is the thing that it usually comes down to. At the present time soybean futures do represent many things but they also represent the good crop weather in South America. As we all know USDA’s predicted record crops for Brazil this year and it’s happening as we speak. Lately South American weather has been bulletproofed, we will see if that continues. Commodity Specific Comments Corn Corn has been somewhat of a star among the agricultural commodities all year. That’s because we had the biggest record crop in the field by a country mile and futures prices did not fall apart, in fact they are higher than last year. USDA even increased corn demand by 125 million bushels in their last report. However, the January report could be confession time for corn. Is the crop really that big? Will the USDA continue to change the number of planted acres and harvested acres which will be reflected in production? It’s also hard to say at this point but as we look into the January 12th, 2026, report, those marketing variables have to be kept in mind. The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 8.25 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. This spread has been cut in half from last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Soybeans have lost about a dollar a bushel since mid-October. There was a mysterious pent-up demand for Chinese buying which of course never really happened in any big way. The funds have also exited soybeans over the last few weeks, and we know there’s a big Brazilian crop down south. There is some thought that the USDA will reduce the soybean national yield in the January report. In fact, some of this conjecture has been up to two bushels per acre which could carve off about 160 million bushels over the ending stocks figure. This would put soybean ending stocks at a very low level setting up the spectre for some fireworks ahead. The bulls can only hope. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 10 cents below the March contract considered neutral for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 16th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat The December WASDE report did document an increase in world wheat production as well as an increase in world wheat stocks. In addition to this, last week the Rosario exchange forecasted that the Argentinian wheat crop was increased by another 3 MMTS. It is an old...
Transcribe →Market Trends Report – November & December 2025
Nov 1700:12:22Tap to summarizeUS and the World It is that time of year when farmers reach the proverbial finish line, of getting that crop in the bin. The harvest of 2025 has been abundant, and it is also taking place in a very timely fashion with very good weather across the North American corn belt. At the same time there’s been a bit of a dearth of market information as the US government shutdown has meant very little in terms of information coming out from USDA. However, this all changed on November the 14th when despite the continuing governing shutdown, the USDA released their latest WASDE report. For market watchers it was a long two months without USDA numbers. Many were expecting much lower numbers in this November report. However, it seems like big supply is still winning. The USDA actually lowered corn yield .7 bushels per acre to 186 bushels per acre. This was much lower than pre report expectations. This put US domestic production at 16.752 billion bushels above the previous record of 15.34 billion bushels from two years ago. Planted acreage was maintained at 98.7 million acres with harvested acreage at 90 million acres. The corn ending stocks for this year were raised 44 million bushels to 2.154 billion bushels. The 2024/2025 Brazilian corn production was raised to 136 MMT, while Argentinian production was maintained at 50 MMT. On the soybean side of the ledger the USDA reduced soybean yields by .5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels per acre. Harvested acreage was left unchanged from September at 80.3 million acres. This put total US production at 4.253 billion bushels a slight decrease from September. At the end of the day the USDA reduced their ending stocks to 290 million bushels which is a drop from 300 million bushels in September. Brazilian soybean production is set at 175 MMT and 48.5 MMT for Argentina. This is unchanged from September. The US wheat production is set at 1.985 billion bushels which is unchanged from the September small grains report. On Nov 16th corn, soybean and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. December 2025 corn futures was at $4.30 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.67 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $11.24 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.15. The December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.27 a bushel. The Minneapolis December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.64 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.15 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of November 16th closed at $60.09/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $57.54/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.12/gallon, up vs the $2.09/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on November 14th, 2025, was .7130 US, about the same vs the .7025 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.50%. Ontario In Ontario it has been a good harvest window for a crop that has been widely divergent depending on where you are in the province. As of November 16th, most if not all of Ontario soybeans have been harvested. Corn continues to be harvested with an estimate of about 65% complete. Widespread snow in the province in the middle of November did cause somewhat of a slowdown. Yields reflect the drought conditions of the summer with central and eastern Ontario being pretty tough. On the contrary corn yields in the deep southwest of Ontario are record high by a lot. As a general rule winter wheat acreage in Ontario is highly correlated to wheat planting conditions in the fall. In other words, if it’s a good fall wheat production is usually up. This does not necessarily reflect 2025 as we had a very good fall, but wheat production is set to come in at about 1 million acres which would be slightly below last year. Ontario basis levels for grains has increased slightly from the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar being at a low ebb has been part of this equation but also the uneven supply and drought-stricken areas has been another. For instance, some basis bids in eastern Ontario are much higher than the rest of the province for corn. The US replacement prices also favourable toward importing corn into Ontario. However, with big corn supplies in the deep southwest the situation is fluid. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the December 2025 corn futures on October 17th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.57 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.17 to $3.44 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.77 to $3.15 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.52. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.79 bu. range. On November 16th the US replacement price for corn was $6.23/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line The November USDA report was a disappointment to market observers who are expecting much more. Interestingly enough, the November report is usually a dull report on a normal year. However, with the government shutdown and with the trading algorithms not being fed U.S. government numbers for about 60 days it was widely anticipated as a big report. However, when it was released and the numbers were presented, it looks like big supply won the day again as there wasn’t a big difference from September. The big news in geopolitics over the last few weeks has been the anticipation of soybean purchases from the Chinese again. The anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi was widely seen as possible impetus to a catalyst on soybean purchases. However, it hasn’t quite worked out that way. The USDA actually reduced export demand on November 14th and this tempered soybean prices significantly post report. After the Trump/ Xi meeting, the Chinese did agree to buy approximately 12 MMTs of soybeans this market year with an additional 25 MMT annually over the next three years. Keep in mind that in the 2024/2025 marketing year China bought 22.5 MMTs of soybeans from the US. So, in many ways, having the Chinese buy 12 MMTs of soybeans in this marketing year is half a celebration. Trade wars might be easy to win, but in this case, it looks like China has won this round. However, there might be a pullback in prices. There certainly was on the USDA report date. At the present time cash Brazilian soybean values are lower and at a certain point the Chinese will need soybeans in December and January and the Americans would be well placed to serve that need before the Brazilian crop starts being harvested. As per usual in these geopolitical situations nothing is true, and everything is true at the same time. Cheap agricultural commodities are always the great elixir to make sales possible. Commodity Specific Comments Corn Was the USDA number on corn of 186 bushels per acre a proverbial head fake? In other words, traders were expecting a much lower number in fact some were saying 3.2 or more bushels lower than 186 based on the cash markets over the last 60 days. Coming in at 186 bushels per acre was surprising to many. Should we expect this number to go lower in December and the final report in January much lower? Keep in mind that demand is off the chart for corn. For instance, US domestic usage alone is forecast at 13.08 billion bushels. The corn export number for 2025 and 2026 is now pegged at 3.75 billion bushels which is up 100 million bushels from September. There is some testosterone in these numbers. With big supply, we need that. The December 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 13.75 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. This spread is the same as last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 10th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Soybeans have had a little bullish run over the last several weeks but along came the USDA on November 14th and it put a kibosh on that. USDA lowered the soybean number down to 53 bushels per acre which was expected but there was very little else in the report to support the market bulls. Soybeans retreated over $0.20 on the day and will need to regroup to move ahead. Our American friends have been looking at this regroup as Chinese buying of American soybeans. However, that is not happened yet in any big way. For instance, the American government shutdown has meant that none of this has been documented and released for publication. At the same time any agreement with the Chinese only reflects lower numbers if it happens at all. However, on the flip side if in the unexpected event China does come through in a big way for American beans, it will be good for soybean prices. Needless to say, the cash price for Brazilian beans now is far below American gulf soybeans values. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 11.75 cents below the January contract considered slightly bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 21st perce...
Transcribe →Market Trends Report – October & November 2025
Oct 2000:10:41Tap to summarizeUS and the World It has been for the most part a wide-open harvest season across the greater American corn belt. This is not only been reflected in the American Midwest but right across Ontario. Harvest has moved quickly and as we are into mid-October corn harvest is ramping up or in full swing throughout farm country. In the meantime, politics has taken over in the American government which has led to a shutdown of government services. This includes much of the crop reporting functions of the USDA and the monthly WASDE report. Hopefully this will change going into November, but it is all conjecture at this point. Keep in mind that USDA reports do serve as a benchmark for market action. They are not perfect and in fact, 2025 has been an example of that. For instance, going from last month’s report we have a record corn production expected of 16.814 billion bushels on an average yield of 186.7 bushels per acre. This is projected on a record corn acreage of 98.7 million acres and harvested acreage which is now projected at 90 million acres. Looking back, the USDA predicted corn acreage this year at 95.3 million acres on March 31st. The difference is striking, and it has had an effect on the market. The same could be said for the soybean market as planted acreage from September being adjusted to 81.1 million acres. The USDA had predicted 83.5 million acres of soybeans on March 31st. Clearly, it’s hard to square the circle on how these numbers could be so different over the course of a few months. Needless to say, USDA numbers give us benchmarks which are consumed by trading algorithms, which discover our futures prices. In lieu of those benchmarks, the market still gives better clues sometimes than the USDA. For instance, futures spreads have been narrowing and basis levels have been increasing across the greater American corn belt. This hints at the crop might not be as big as advertised. As we move ahead, without government numbers zeroing in on futures spreads and basis values over the next few weeks are extremely important to understand market direction. On October 17th corn, soybean and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. December 2025 corn futures was at $4.22 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.57 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.19 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.64. The December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.03 a bushel. The Minneapolis December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.12 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of October 17th closed at $57.54/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.69/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.09/gallon, down vs the $2.20/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on October 17th, 2025, was .7125 US, lower vs the .7221 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.50%. Ontario It has been an amazing stretch of harvest weather from late September into October 16th across Ontario. Warm temperatures and dry days intermixed with just a few rain showers has led to big harvest progress throughout Ontario farm country. As of October, the 15th about 91% of Ontario soybeans have been harvested and 2% of Ontario corn has been harvested. You can make an argument that drought is good at harvest time, allowing fast harvest progress. However, as we all know severe drought in much of central and eastern Ontario has impacted crops this year leading to very low yields in some cases. As of the end of September this continued. However, yields have been very good in the deep southwest of the province which got more rainfall throughout the growing season. Overall yield for both corn and soybeans for Ontario will be down from last year and quite significantly in the droughty areas. Ontario basis levels for corn have retreated from earlier levels where there were premiums for early harvest corn. This corn would have been harvested in late September or very early October. The lower basis values lately reflect lots of corn in the United States as well as deep southwestern Ontario. However, there will likely be basis opportunities in eastern Ontario reflecting the drought of the last summer. The soybean basis actually increased slightly from last month reflecting largely the drop in the Canadian dollar to the .7125 US level. Foreign exchange, as always is a major factor in the Ontario soybean basis level. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the December 2025 corn futures on October 17th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.57 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.17 to $3.44 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.77 to $3.15 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $5.90. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.41 bu. range. On October 17th the US replacement price for corn was $6.68/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at http://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line Daily market intelligence remains key to our marketing plans in 2025. At the present time that is very difficult especially when the USDA is not releasing crop reports which are usually the lifeblood of trading algorithms. In the meantime, focusing in on narrowing spreads in futures and basis values can offer some of the best clues. Those clues now are showing a tightening of future spreads especially in corn and a little bit less so in soybeans. Is it the start of something or is it simply a head fake? It is all so hard to know especially at a time when the USDA is not releasing numbers on grain. However, it would seem that commercial interests are back in the market as the week ended on October 17th. Of course, this is all relative to the big size of the crop out there. Much has been said about the lack of Chinese soybean buying from the United States but there are really no economic reasons for the Chinese to do so. At the current effective tariff rates of the 23% against US soybeans its cost prohibitive for Chinese processors. US soybean prices are now below Brazilian prices and $1.40 bushel below Chinese domestic prices. This would come especially at a time when there is a gap between South America supply. However, it may seem that trade wars are bit harder to win than once thought. It’s just a long story now. Domestically, US soybean crush in September was 12% higher than the year before as the US crush industry continues to expand into territory not seen previously. This sector is particularly sensitive to any trade announcement coming between China and the United States. An argument could be made if things are normalized soybean prices could be springboard higher. However, these are not normal times especially with the vacuum of USDA information. Commodity Specific Comments Corn 186.7 bushels per acre is a very solid US domestic yield, in fact a record. However, without official USDA numbers it is hard to judge if that is been backed off going into October. Future spreads and basis along with the price movement have told us that there is a strong indication that the yield might not be as high as that. A two-bushel reduction in yield significantly alter the stocks picture based on previous record production. Corn prices have increased somewhat from the August lows and domestic use has been strong in the United States as well as big export numbers. It is always hard to tell without the government reports, but Mexico has been a big buyer of corn at these price levels. There is a lot of livestock to feed and a lot of corn products to be consumed in Mexico. The December 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 13.75 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. However, this spread has been narrowing over the last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Do soybeans offer hope for producers? It seems that way especially when you take the lower acreage this year but realistically soybeans really haven’t gone anywhere in two years. We have been stuck between a range of $9.50 a bushel and $10.50 a bushel on the front futures month. It has been very difficult to break above that. The soybean market has grown accustomed to not having any Chinese buying in it. The Chinese need to buy 8 to 9 million metric tons of soybeans between now and when new crop soybeans start coming off in January from Brazil. There is a meeting scheduled for the end of the month between President Trump and President Xi but of course any trade agreement is a theory now. However, a surprise announcement would help soybeans break out of that big range it’s been in for quite some time. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 17 cents below the January contract considered slightly bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 10th percentile of the past five-year price di...
Transcribe →Market Trends Report – September & October 2025
Sep 1500:12:45Tap to summarizeUS and the World It has been a big production year with good planting weather turning into a good summer and record yields predicted. However, as summer turned late the tap turned off and it was very dry across much of the greater American corn belt. As we headed into the end of September many market observers were wondering just how much impact the dry late summer had on the crops growing in the field. On September 12th the USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report. At first glance the September 12th USDA report was bearish showing some very big numbers. In an unexpected move the USDA increased corn production 72 million bushels pushing the projected record total up to 16.814 billion bushels. This happened despite a 2.1 bushel per acre cut in 2025 yield down to 186.7 bushels per acre. The lower yield was offset from USDA by increasing planted acreage and expected harvested acreage. So, we are smashing the previous production record that took place in 2023/2024 of 15.34 billion bushels of corn. The US planted corn acreage was increased 1.4 million acres to 98.7 million acres and harvested acreage is now projected to be 90 million acres up 1.3 million acres from last month. Corn ending stocks for 2025/2026 for the US corn crop is now 2.117 billion bushels which is the highest ending stock in 7 years. Keep in mind anticipated corn demand is at a record high of 16.06 billion bushels. On the soybean side the USDA was not as dramatic as they were with the corn. US domestic yield was actually cut 1/10 of a bushel down to 53.5 bushels per acre with planted acreage at 81.1 million acres and harvested acreage to be 80.3 million acres. This puts the total soybean production to come in at 4.301 billion bushels. The increase in soybean acreage resulted in a slight increase from the 4.29 billion bushels of soybeans being predicted last month. Production in Brazil and Argentina was left unchanged at 175 MMTs and 48.5 MMTs respectively. China’s import of soybeans is expected to be 112 MMTs, the same as last month. The USDA will update their wheat production forecast in its Small Grains Summary to be released September 30th. On September 12th corn, soybean and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. December 2025 corn futures was at $4.30 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.69 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.46 bu. The September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.23 a bushel. The Minneapolis September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.71 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.29 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of September 12th closed at $62.69/barrel the same vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.69/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.20/gallon, up vs the $2.05/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on September 12th, 2025, was .7221 US, lower vs the .7243 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%. Ontario In Ontario the yield robber this year will likely be the protracted dry weather that many areas of the province received during the 2025 growing season. Simply put, it was a dry year for eastern and central Ontario as well as the Niagara region and parts of west central Ontario. The one exception is the deep southwest of Ontario which received adequate rainfall and has tremendous crops in the field. However, an argument could still be made that it is still dry and some of these drought induced fields have already seen soybean harvest started. Corn harvest started earlier for some people in central and eastern Ontario who had no alternative but to harvest corn for silage hoping to salvage something from the drought. At the same time rapid movement of corn out of the province led to a situation where basis levels were much higher especially in eastern Ontario going into Quebec. In other words, large expanses of central and eastern Ontario are the complete opposite of the big crop in the greater American corn belt. As we look ahead US corn will likely move into these areas in 2025/2026 rapidly replacing corn that didn’t come to fruition through drought ravaged fields in 2025. In fact, any early harvest corn coming off this September can find a big premium vs going into later October and November. It’s a unique situation. Basis levels have risen or widened since the last Market Trends report. This is partly a reflection of the low Canadian dollar currently at .7221 US but also a reflection of the amount of corn that has left the province. This also represents good opportunity for farmers selling as we look ahead. If there’s been one silver lining to the swoon in futures prices over the last year, it’s about our Ontario basis levels. The Canadian dollar has largely been a stimulus to these price levels. The uneven forecast for Ontario corn supply going into 2026 will surely create some basis opportunities looking ahead in eastern Ontario. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.90 to $2.36 over the December 2025 corn futures on September 12th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.25 to $1.96 over Dec 2025 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.95 to $3.19 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.85 to $3.19 over the November 2025 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.04. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.64 bu. range. On September 12th the US replacement price for corn was $6.92/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line There is a huge crop coming in at record levels. It is almost hard to get your mind around it. The USDA has certainly been somewhat uneven over the summer of 2025 with regard to the number of acres that are in the ground. However, with combines rolling across the American corn belt the corn and soybeans are starting to come in and in the next few weeks we should have an even better appreciation for where this crop is. The overall question might be why did the market react positively to the biggest corn crops ever to be planted in the United States? Of course, if we knew that for sure we could hedge appropriately but keep in mind we’ve had so much negative and bearish news over the period of the summer. Some traders have often said don’t short a sleeping market and that’s what the corn market might have been over the last 60 days. The record demand which can often get overlooked in a big supply scenario is having an impact. Futures spreads in corn have been weakening over the last month reflecting the notion that the crop might not be as good as first advertised. Initial yield reports out of Illinois are substantiating that. However, on the soybean side the November January futures spreads were unchanged on report day. The commercial side was actually growing more bearish with regard to buying soybeans going into the weekend. So, basis levels in the United States for both corn and soybeans may widen on this run up in futures. The demand picture for corn is strong. It is the same for soybeans, but American soybeans not so much because of a lack of Chinese purchasing. Keep in mind the price of beef and pork as we go into the grain harvesting season. The price of beef has been at record highs and the price of pork has been high as well. It’s quite obvious that this is good for feed demand, and it will likely be sustained through the winter. The beef and pork price complex is healthy for a variety of reasons. A surging stock market does help consumers in the United States keep up their purchasing of protein. Commodity Specific Comments Corn 98.7 million acres of corn is huge. Since the June 30th acreage report we have gained 3.5 million acres of corn which is like piling on. This is the highest acreage since 1936 and it screamed bearishness for the market. However, as we all know the market went up on the news seemingly having digested all the bearishness before the report. It was a strange move. Having said that, 16.817 billion bushels of corn is a record by a mile versus the 15.34 billion bushels grown two years ago. You would think at a certain point corn will be hitting some headwinds. However, we also have record corn demand currently sitting at 16.06 billion bushels. That is just as mind boggling or even more so than the production number. it makes the price picture looking ahead that much more mysterious. The December 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 17 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 15th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans</strong...
Transcribe →Market Trends Report – August & September 2025
Aug 1800:12:39Tap to summarizeUS and the World Here we are it is the middle of August and in most years the crop is made. At this time of year much of the crop defining weather is behind us. Corn pollination is in the rear-view mirror but pod set in soybeans can be the real deal in August. It’s been a pretty good year for the US corn belt with good weather almost from the beginning. So far, even the summertime weather has been kind. On August the 12th the USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report. In many respects, it was a shocker. It came in corn with the USDA predicting a whopping 16.7-billion-bushel corn crop with record yields projected at 188.8 bushels per acre. This would shatter the previous record and it was a good seven plus bushels above last month estimate. The previous corn record production was in 2023/2024 at 15.34 billion bushels. This planted acreage was increased by 2.1 million acres to 97.3 million acres. The harvested acres are projected at 88.7 million acres up 1.9 million from the July estimate. Crop corn ending stocks was boosted 457 million bushels to 2.117 billion bushels. The USDA prediction on corn was a big surprise and to some extent the soybean estimate was as well. However, it was a surprise on the bullish side. USDA came out and predicted 4.29 billion bushels of soybeans which was at the low end of pre report estimates. This was based on a national average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre which would be a record high that came about. However, USDA reduced harvested acreage from 82.5 million acres to 80.1 million acres. This means that we actually have declining ending stocks on the new crop side of 290 million bushels, 20 million bushels lower than a month ago. The USDA also cut back on world ending stocks 124.9 MMTs, a decline at 1.17 MMTs from last month. On Aug 15th corn and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. Soybean futures were higher. September 2025 corn futures was at $3.83 a bushel. Dec 2025 corn were at $4.05 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.42 bu. The September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.06 a bushel. The Minneapolis September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.70 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.42 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of Aug 15th closed at $62.80/barrel down vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $64.87/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.05/gallon, the same as the $2.05/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on August 15th, 2025, was .7243 US, lower vs the .7334 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%. Ontario In Ontario there is a mixed bag with regard to the crop growing in the field. Although much of the province got off to a good start dry weather and drought has inundated many parts of Ontario. Areas in central, western and eastern Ontario and the Niagara region have been and are suffering from drought conditions. There has been some relief to these areas with recent rainfall, but the damage has been done. On the contrary the deep southwest of the province has had ideal conditions with good moisture almost all year. This will incubate many basis pricing opportunities within the province over the next few months. Basis levels for corn have increased substantially over the last few weeks and especially in eastern Ontario. It is always a balancing act with regard to how much corn is needed and how much is exported and how much is available in Ontario each year. Of course, it is August now and lots of old crop corn has left the building. Pricing opportunities for those who have corn left are quite good compared to the southwestern part of the province. The Canadian dollar continues to stimulate these cash prices. Soybean basis levels have moved up reflecting the higher futures prices. Clearly, with the drought in many parts of Ontario corn supply moving forward might be compromised. This could result in big basis opportunities for pricing in the next few months. However, it could also result in increased US imports of corn to keep prices low. It has been a few years since we’ve had this situation. Much will depend on the final yield of the 2025 corn crop. Keep in mind in the Deep Southwest of Ontario the corn crop is good, and this is where the majority of corn volume wise is grown in the province. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.80 to $2.53 over the September 2025 corn futures on August 15th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.20 to $1.62 over Dec 2025 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.95 to $3.05 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.85 to $3.05 over the November 2025 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $5.87. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.64 bu. range. On August 15th the US replacement price for corn was $6.40/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line We have a record crop to deal with. It is almost getting to be what they used to call a broken record, continually playing the same song. Over the last couple of years, we’ve got so accustomed to huge crops in the United States and its blunting effect on higher prices. However, this year on August 12 to USDA came out with the earth-shattering number of 188.8 bushels per acre of corn it redefined huge crop. Yes, skeptics will scoff at that number, but regardless there is a lot of corn in the field in the United States. Needless to say, December futures fluttering just above the $4.00 mark don’t lie. However, it’s pretty obvious that our American friends will have to put that big crop somewhere. Storage will be at a premium, surely some of it will be bagged in the field. There will be piles everywhere. There is also lots of on farm 2024 corn left. This will likely manifest itself at harvest time in lower prices and basis levels unless those combine yield stories tell a different tale. This might be one of those years. Do soybeans offer a much better story looking ahead? At first glance it would seem so based on the lower harvested acres the USDA estimated. Yes, they did put out a record yield at 53.6 bushels per acre but there was a cut of 2.4 million acres. That is significant and if that yield estimate changes on a hot and dry time over the next three weeks ending stocks will grow smaller. This could set up an opportunity for a rally in soybeans. China could be a wild card in this scenario. However, we must be realistic. President Trump has called for China to quadruple their soybean buying from the United States this year. Quadrupling zero buying it is still zero buying as the Chinese have not been part of this soybean market. As we look ahead, we’re almost getting beyond that to save the day. They prefer buying all agricultural commodities without any geopolitical strings attached. Look for them to always buy soybeans from Brazil as their preferred option. Commodity Specific Comments Corn The 188.8 bushel per acre corn yield was almost on the crazy side. The question is going forward is this the high watermark for corn yield for the 2025 crop. When it was announced corn was down hard on the day but by the end of the week September corn actually gained a penny. To some extent that tells us that the yield was dialed in but on the other hand not believed by traders. Where corn ends up nobody knows but clearly, we have a huge crop and we need some type of new demand or fresh news to get this market going again. There had been talk about tassel wrap and pollination issues. However, that was lost in the avalanche of supply coming from USDA last week. Corn exports to places like China would certainly be optimal in the next few weeks as there is still quite a bit of old crop in the pipeline. The September 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 21.5 cents lower than the December 2025 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Do soybeans represent hope in this market and corn just the opposite? Well, we know soybeans are the great liars but always in the end tell the truth. There was a huge cut in the amount of soybean acres which helped boost this market even at a record deal prediction of 53.6 bushels per acre. It is entirely obvious if we go hot and dry for the next three weeks that yield prediction will be cut, giving hope for soybean prices. Technically, it’s hard to tell whether we’re at a turning point for the soybean market. Soybeans have been bearish at least up to this point and there’s still an argument that they still are. Market act...
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