US and the World

It is that time of year again when planters are rolling across the Great North American corn belt. As always, there are variations on this theme depending on the weather. Some producers are going well, some are delayed by rain, and some haven’t even started yet. However, as we look into 2026, we have a world awash in grain but at the same time deeply troubled by geopolitical events in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. Our grain price environment equation is being buffeted every which way. On April 9th the USDA came out with their latest WASDE report.

There were few changes coming from the USDA on April 9th. US corn production for 2025/26 Is still pegged at a record 17.02 billion bushels with a yield forecast of 186.5 bushels per acre. Corn ethanol usage came in at 5.6 billion bushels, feed and residual usage came in at 6.2 billion bushels and food seed and residual use and industrial use was projected at 6.97 billion bushels. This year US farmers surveyed came up with the figure of 95.3 million acres of corn which is down 3% from a year ago. Soybeans on the other hand are projected to be 84.7 million acres which is up 4% from last year. Winter wheat acreage is the lowest since 1919.

On the soybean side of the equation old crop ending stocks are still set at 350 million bushels. USDA did trim its export estimate by 35 million bushels to 1.54 billion bushels. Total usage is set at 4.262 billion bushels. There was a lowering a world ending stocks reflecting some higher crushed estimates. Production in Brazil remains at 180 MMT and 48 MMT in Argentina. On the global side of things, wheat ending stocks actually increased slightly from the March estimate.

On April 24th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. May 2026 corn futures was at $4.55 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.84 bu. The May 2026 soybean futures was at $11.78 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.55. The May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.08 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.76 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $7.09 a bushel.
The nearby oil futures as of April 24th, 2026, closed at $94.40/barrel much lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $111.54/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.21/gallon, down vs the $2.25/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 24th, 2026, was .7311 US, up vs the .7185 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

Wet weather has been a characteristic in the early spring throughout Ontario limiting field activity. However, there has been widespread side dressing nitrogen on the wheat with some acres left behind as of Saturday April 25th because of rain showers inundating Ontario. Producers will be looking for dry weather both to get this side dressing done as well as commence corn planting.

Statistics Canada is estimating Ontario farmers will grow 2.316 million acres of corn this year and 2.894 million acres of soybeans. In Quebec we’re looking at 825 thousand acres of corn and a million acres of soybeans. Intuitively, the Ontario corn number doesn’t seem quite right especially with the higher fertilizer and fuel costs this spring. However, much of the corn acreage in the province will depend on spring weather. At this early date there is still wide opportunity to garner big corn acres the spring.

The erosion in the Canadian dollar of a couple cents since the last Market Trends report is partly responsible for the lower soybean basis in Ontario. However, keep in mind that the short crop in eastern Ontario last year is resulting in a deficit of soybeans to export. This has led to basis strength especially a few weeks ago. At the same time there has been US corn imported into Quebec to satisfy some local requirements. It is all a function of price and as local prices approach the US replacement price, there will be corn imports.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.45 to $2.15 over the May 2026 corn futures on April 24th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.25 to $1.60 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.91 over the May 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.09 to $3.40 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.43. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.36/bu range. On April 24th the US replacement price for corn was $6.68/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

In many ways, it’s a new day. For some producers they may have old crop left in the bin but for others it is long in the rear view mirror. What we face as we go into planting our crops this year is risk that we’ve become accustomed to overtime. There are the fundamentals of grain which refers to the supply and demand but of course there is also the weather which we deal with all the time. As we look into 2026 weather concerns will continually dominate where we go. Outlier years like 2012 and 1988 will happen again. However, for the most part they are rare. Needless to say, we will be in a continual weather market until the crop is made.

Another important point to realize as we move ahead is that grain fundamentals don’t seem to matter as much as they used to. For instance, right now the world is awash in grain especially coming off good crops from last year. At the same time futures prices have moved higher partly because of geopolitical events and partly because of things unknown. In many ways there is no connection to previous days no classic technical or fundamental analysis to apply. What we’re finding is that trading algorithms are dialed in to social media posts especially at the highest level of the American government and over the last several weeks this has made market prices go higher. Also too, with war in Iran much uncertainty has reigned and the trading algorithms have responded positively.

It is always hard to know what will come next especially in this market environment. We know that the potential for another big crop in the United States followed by another big crop in South America is more or less likely. Keep in mind that also will be dialed into the grain trading algorithms. In fact, you might make an argument cash basis may become even more important depending on where you farm. At the end of the day, it is our cash prices which is the litmus test for our market decisions.

The war in Iran continues and its effect on our agricultural markets will surely continue. Keep in mind that grain analysts are not military analysts, which creates a lot of noise within the marketplace. As it is, the energy market will continually be a place for big volatility. Soybean oil will be affected as well as our corn markets. We cannot ignore the daily headlines out of Iran. It will always be an influence until things settle down

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

Corn futures prices lost about $0.40 from their March highs and are currently working halfway back to those March levels. Whether they get there or not is another point of contention. For instance, at the present time we are planting new crop corn and you would think it would take a lot of weather delays and new news to have an effect on our old corn prices as we move forward.

For new crop corn there has always been the discussion since the start of the war in Iran about how higher fuel and fertilizer prices might affect US acreage this spring. That debate is still ongoing, but it is probably more likely that weather will affect the corn acres vwesus the fuel and fertilizer debate. Keep in mind that earlier the USDA had forecast 95.3 million acres of corn to be planted this spring.

The July 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 5.25 cents lower than the September 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 corn futures contract is at the 18th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Soybeans usually have a lot to say, but not so much for the moment. We have been in a trading range of about $0.25 up and down since the big drop on March the 12th. Keep in mind the Chinese have not been back to buy soybeans even though there is a US China summit supposed to be taking place in May. US export demand has been pretty nonexistent within this vacuum. We also know there are likely be more soybeans planted this year in the United States.

It is no secret that at the present time South America and Brazil in particular owns the soybean market. They’ve had another record crop over 180 MMT and this will continue to permeate within soybean prices for the near future. As we move ahead, there would have to be another explosion in oil prices or some type of weather calamity in the United States to make this soybean price get much higher.

The July 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 6.75 cents above the August contract considered bullish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 28th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

Wheat has been a bit of a bright spot in the agricultural commodity market, something that doesn’t usually happen. Remember, wheat is almos...