Podcast
Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Hosted by Joe Vaclavik · EN
Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.
55episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
End of an Era? Brazilian Soybean Expansion at Risk Amid Iran/Fertilizer/Inflation Situation
4d ago00:19:26Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Brazil's Agricultural Crisis – Soaring fertilizer prices tied to the Iran war are squeezing Brazilian farmers, with fertilizer use expected to drop nearly 4% by year-end. Soybean acreage growth is set to hit its slowest pace in nearly 20 years, while corn and cotton acreage may actually decline.🚜 John Deere Feeling the Pain – Deere's ag segment saw a 14% drop in Q2 sales, with US/Canada sales forecast to fall 15-20% this year. South America's outlook has also worsened dramatically, with sales now expected to slide 15% versus a prior forecast of just 5%.🌽 Grain Futures Under Pressure – Corn, soybeans, and wheat all closed lower Thursday, weighed down by a lack of confirmed Chinese purchases and favorable Corn Belt weather. Grain markets are tracking crude oil closely, with futures ticking slightly higher this morning alongside a $2-3/bbl rise in WTI.🌧️ Drought Monitor Update – USDA's latest data shows wildly uneven precipitation across the Corn Belt and Plains, with conditions worsening in Kentucky, northern Illinois, and parts of the Dakotas. A staggering 70% of winter wheat acres remain under drought stress nationwide.📦 Strong US Export Sales – Corn export sales crushed expectations at 2.1 MMT for the week ending May 14, up 71% from the prior four-week average. Soybean and wheat sales also came in near the top of expectations, though China has still yet to book any new-crop US soybeans.
Transcribe →Grain Prices Tumble on US/Iran "Progress"
5d ago00:13:28Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🛢️ Oil prices tumbled over 5% on Wednesday as Trump announced US-Iran negotiations are nearing a final stage, sending WTI crude to $98.26 per barrel. Analysts warn the market may be underestimating the long-term risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.🌾 Wheat, corn, and soybean futures all closed lower, pressured by falling crude prices and uncertainty over China's confirmation of a $17 billion agricultural purchase deal. China's Ministry of Commerce acknowledged expanded trade but did not confirm the figure cited by the White House.🏦 The Federal Reserve is signaling a more hawkish stance, with officials suggesting rate hikes may be necessary if inflation — currently at 3.8% — continues to climb. Markets are now pricing in a 51% chance of a 25-basis-point hike by December, putting incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on a collision course with Trump's push for cuts.⛽ US ethanol production hit a seasonal high last week at 1.11 million barrels per day, up 12% from the same period last year. Margins across the Corn Belt remain strong, ranging from 10 to 40 cents positive.🥩 Cargill locked out roughly 1,700 workers at its Fort Morgan, Colorado meatpacking facility after employees rejected a contract proposal, halting slaughter operations that were processing around 4,000 head per day. This comes as President Trump calls on the DOJ to investigate major meatpackers for potential price collusion, with packers currently losing upwards of $300 per head.
Transcribe →Emerging Evidence of Reduced Grain Production Amid Fertilizer and Inflation Issues
6d ago00:17:24Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Australia's wheat production is facing a major decline — dry conditions and soaring input costs from the Iran war could slash output by up to 41%, potentially dropping to just 21mmt. As the world's third-largest wheat exporter, this represents a serious global supply shock.🌱 Brazilian soybean acreage growth is hitting a 20-year low — rising fertilizer costs tied to Middle East conflict are slowing expansion to under 1 million new acres for 2026/2027. Meanwhile, this season's crop is on track to be a record 180.1mmt.🤝 China and the US agreed to cut agricultural tariffs — both nations confirmed a reciprocal tariff reduction framework, though specific products and dollar figures remain vague. As always with China, watch what they do, not what they say.📉 Corn futures dipped while soybeans edged higher — the Dec26 corn contract settled near $4.98 as traders waited for more details on the China deal. Nov26 soybeans added 2 cents to close at $12.03.🏭 The USDA is pushing to boost domestic fertilizer production—permitting is being fast-tracked, and tariffs on Moroccan phosphate imports may be removed to ease costs. An economist will also be hired specifically to monitor farm input prices.📈 Treasury yields are surging to near 20-year highs — the 30-year yield broke above 5.18% as war-driven inflation fears and massive bond issuance rattle markets. Analysts warn the Fed may be forced to raise rates rather than cut them.🌽 Lawmakers are calling for immediate farmer relief — Senator Boozman supports the USDA's long-term fertilizer plans but says near-term financial aid is urgently needed. He also renewed his push for a new farm bill and year-round E15 sales.
Transcribe →"But China Didn't Sign Anything!" - Traders Buy Grains Now, Will Ask Questions Later
1w ago00:15:55Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Grain and soybean futures surged Monday after a White House fact sheet revealed China committed to purchasing $17 billion in US agricultural products annually for the next three years — though key details and formal Chinese confirmation are still pending. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all rallied sharply as funds bought aggressively across the board.US winter wheat conditions continued to slide, with good-excellent ratings hitting their lowest level since 1996. The top five HRW-producing states are averaging just 9.6% good-to-excellent and 62.6% poor-to-very-poor, with the USDA pegging the HRW crop at 515 million bushels—down 36% from last year. Corn and soybean planting are both running ahead of average, and the forecast favors additional Corn Belt rainfall over the next five days.Brazil's inflation outlook is worsening, now projected at 4.5% by year-end—well above the central bank's 3% target—largely driven by higher oil prices tied to the Iran conflict. Brazilian farmers continue to face steep borrowing costs, with private loan rates exceeding 17%.US corn export inspections dipped last week but remain strong on the season. Soybean inspections were up 115% year-over-year, with China accounting for roughly 42% of the week's total. Wheat shipments fell below expectations.President Trump delayed a planned strike on Iran following requests from Persian Gulf allies, though WTI crude still settled up ~3% at $108.66/barrel. The administration extended a sanctions waiver on Russian oil sales for another 30 days amid ongoing pressure heading into the midterms.
Transcribe →White House Says China Will Buy $17B in "Non-Soybean" Ag Products - Grain Markets SURGE
1w ago00:11:41Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 China Agrees to $17B Annual US Ag Purchases Through 2028 🇺🇸🇨🇳China has agreed to purchase at least $17 billion annually in US agricultural goods through 2028, following President Trump's meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week. 📋 These purchases are in addition to China's existing commitment to buy 25mmt of US soybeans annually through 2028. The two countries also plan to establish trade and investment boards, signaling closer economic coordination. ⚠️ However, China's commerce ministry described the agreement as preliminary, with no specific details provided. Click HERE to view the White House fact sheet.💭 Our Take: Dollar-benchmarked agreements are harder to track than volume-based ones. The last time China bought $17B+ in non-soybean US products was in 2021–2022, both years tied to large corn purchases. While skeptics point to the unfulfilled Phase One deal, it's worth noting China did complete its more recent 12mmt soybean commitment in full.🌧️ Corn Belt Rainfall Update: Parts of the Corn Belt received rain over the weekend, with the largest totals in southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and southeastern Nebraska. Radar remains active this morning over Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Wisconsin. CropProphet (via Euro model data) projects 175% of normal rainfall over the next 7 days and 104% of normal during the 8–14 day period. ☔🫘 NOPA April Crush Data: NOPA members crushed 211.86 million bushels of soybeans in April — down 6.3% from March but up 11.4% year-over-year and a record for the month of April. The result came in below the trade estimate of 214.03 million bushels. Crush margins hit their highest level in three years, boosted by a soybean oil rally tied to rising crude prices amid the Iran war. 🛢️ End-of-month soybean oil stocks fell to 1.95 billion pounds, down 4.5% from March but up 28% from last year.📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (Week Ending May 12): Large money managers were net sellers of 49k corn contracts, though the net long position of 296k contracts remains the second-largest since February 2025. Funds were also net sellers of 5k soybean contracts and 9k SRW wheat contracts on the week.📦 USDA Flash Sale: US exporters sold 155,000mt of soybean cake and meal to Italy for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year.
Transcribe →Grain Markets TANK on Lack of China News - "Speculators Gonna Speculate"
2w ago00:24:38Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump meets Xi in China—traders were hoping for a BIG soybean announcement, but the news fell flat… at first. Treasury Secretary Bessent says the existing 25MMT/year deal through 2028 is enough, sending soybean futures tumbling 24 cents to $11.84/bu. BUT—Trump hinted China will buy "a lot" of US farm products, and Trade Rep. Greer expects a double-digit billion-dollar ag purchase agreement over the next 3 years. Stay tuned. 👀🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour delivers tough news — average yield projected at just 38.9 BPA, a 3-year low and well below the 5-year tour average of 45.5 BPA. Total production estimated at only 218M bushels, down from 338.5M last year. Drought abandonment could hit 20%. 😬🌧️ Drought continues to expand across the Plains — Nebraska is in rough shape, with 94% of the state now under some level of drought, including 10% in exceptional drought. Winter wheat is taking the hardest hit, with 71% of acres affected nationwide. 🔥⛽ E15 expansion debate heats up — The National Corn Growers Association says expanded E15 sales could mean $5+/acre in net benefits for corn & soybean farmers. The American Soybean Association flip-flopped this week—first opposing it, then supporting it with conditions. 🌽📦 Export sales disappointing—Corn sales down 50% week-over-week, soybeans hit a second straight marketing year low. Wheat was the bright spot, up 70% from the prior week. 📉📈
Transcribe →Trump/Xi Meeting + E15 Farm Lobby Clown Show
2w ago00:15:46Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌍 Trump & Xi Meet in Beijing — What It Means for Ag MarketsTrump and Xi sat down for a 2+ hour meeting in Beijing, and the agricultural world is watching closely. China renewed import licenses for hundreds of US beef plants 🐄, making beef exporters the early winners. Soybean traders, however, were left wanting more — no new purchase agreement was announced, sending grain markets mostly lower. Headlines are still developing, so stay tuned.🌽 E15 Clears the House — But the Senate Fight Is Just BeginningThe House passed year-round nationwide E15 sales 218–203 with bipartisan support. With ethanol trading at its widest discount to gasoline in 20 years, the economic case is strong — but oil-state senators and even the American Soybean Association have concerns. It's going to be a battle.🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour Paints a Tough PictureYield estimates are coming in well below last year across both northwest and southwest Kansas. Northwest came in at 38.3 bpa vs. 50.5 last year. The final state estimate drops today—don't miss it.🌧️ Rain Is Coming to the Corn Belt1-2" of rainfall is on the way for much of IL, IA, IN, MO, OH, MN, ND, and SD—welcome news for newly planted fields. But temperatures are also running 4.2°F above normal, so it's a mixed bag for crop development.🌱 EU Moves to Tackle Fertilizer CrisisNitrogen prices in Europe are up 40% since December. The EU is expected to announce a plan next week to stockpile fertilizers and support affected farmers ahead of winter planting season.🥩 JBS Profits Crater 56%Tight US cattle supplies crushed JBS's North American beef margins, dragging net income down to $220.6 million. Meanwhile, their Brazilian operations hit record Q1 sales. The meat giant also flagged rising corn prices ahead due to weather and fertilizer costs.⛽ Ethanol Production Hits Seasonal HighWeekly output hit 1.08M barrels/day — up 6.1% year over year. Margins remain healthy at 10–45 cents positive across the Corn Belt, even as stocks tightened to 24.87 million barrels.
Transcribe →LIMIT-UP Wheat Following USDA Crop Estimates + China to Buy US Corn for the First Time in Years??
2w ago00:15:42Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 US wheat production is headed for its lowest level since 1972 — the USDA's May WASDE pegged the 2026/27 crop at 1.56 billion bushels, down 21% from last year and 10% below trade expectations. HRW wheat is forecast at just 515 million bushels, the lowest since 1957, as severe drought continues to devastate the Plains—and wheat futures hit their daily trading limits following the report.🫘 US soybean production is projected at 4.44 billion bushels — the second-highest on record — even as soaring input costs tied to the Middle East conflict weigh on farmers. Both US and global new-crop soybean carryout came in smaller than expected, giving bulls something to hold onto.🌽 Corn production is forecast at 16 billion bushels, down 6% year-over-year but slightly above trade guesses. Both corn and soybean futures closed higher on the day despite the broadly mixed USDA data.🤝 US and Chinese officials are deep in talks over Chinese purchases of American corn, soybeans, sorghum, and DDGs — with timing and volume still unresolved ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing tonight. Farmers want binding commitments, not social media posts, after recent informal announcements proved unreliable.🏛️ Senator John Hoeven is pushing for $17 billion in additional farm aid, including $3 billion for specialty crops, likely as a supplemental disaster relief package. The support is aimed at keeping current producers afloat and bringing the next generation back to the farm.📈 Inflation hit a 3-year high in April, with the CPI up 3.8% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs surging nearly 18% annually amid the Iran war. The national average for regular unleaded now sits at $4.50 per gallon.
Transcribe →Drought DESTROYS Southern Plains Wheat Crop - Why Aren't Prices Higher??
2w ago00:16:35Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 US winter wheat is in crisis — only 28% of the crop is rated good-to-excellent, the worst rating since 1996 (excluding 2022), while 40% sits in poor-to-very-poor condition. The top 5 hard red winter wheat states are averaging a devastating 59% poor-to-very-poor rating as drought grips the Plains.📈 Grain futures surged Monday ahead of the USDA's big WASDE report and the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all pushed higher as traders bet on revived Chinese purchases and monitored worsening crop conditions.⛽ E15 ethanol could go year-round nationwide if a House vote passes this week, backed by bipartisan support — but the oil industry is pushing back hard. With wholesale ethanol at its widest discount to gasoline in 20 years, the economic case for E15 has never been stronger.🌽 The USDA dropped its first look at 2026/27 crop balance sheets today — and with ample supply and bearish headwinds, prices could face downward pressure. Initial corn and soy yield estimates are pegged at 183 bpa and 53 bpa, respectively.💊 Mosaic is slashing phosphate production by ~10% due to sulfur supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict squeezing margins from both sides. Additional cuts could be coming if Middle East tensions don't ease soon.🐄 Trump pumped the brakes on beef import quota removal after fierce backlash from ranchers and lawmakers—cattle futures whipsawed on the news. A similar policy last fall failed to lower beef prices and cratered the cattle market instead.🚢 US corn and soybean export inspections remain robust, with corn up 30% year-over-year and soybeans up a stunning 49% vs. last year. China alone accounted for 52% of soybean inspections, and flash sales of corn to Mexico and South Korea were confirmed Monday.
Transcribe →"84% of MAX Net Long" - Fund Traders LOVE the Corn Market
2w ago00:14:33Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚨 Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to the latest US peace offer, calling their demands—including gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the waterway—"totally unacceptable." Iran resumed attacks Sunday targeting the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait; Trump travels to China this week to urge Beijing to pressure Tehran toward a deal. Crude oil futures are trading higher on the news. 🛢️---📊 CFTC COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (Week ending May 5)🌽 Corn: Funds were net buyers of 79k contracts, bringing the net long to 345k — the largest since Feb 2025 and 84% of the modern-era "max" net long. 🫘 Soybeans: Funds were net buyers of 37k contracts, bringing the net long to 214k—the largest since Dec 2025 and 89% of the modern-era "max" net long.🌾 SRW Wheat: Funds were net sellers of 21k contracts on the week.---📈 FRIDAY MARKET RECAP🫘 Soybeans were sharply higher — Nov26 +16¢ to ~$11.90/bu—on optimism that China may make a small purchase ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting later this week. 🌽 Corn followed — Dec26 +4¢ to ~$4.94/bu—supported by elevated crude oil and the ongoing US-Iran conflict. 🌾 Wheat also gained on crude strength and persistent drought concerns.---📋 USDA WASDE — Tuesday, 11am CSTUSDA releases its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report Tuesday, including our first look at new crop (26/27) US and world balance sheets. USDA is expected to use Feb Ag Outlook yields (corn 183.0 bpa / beans 53.0 bpa) and March acreage numbers (corn 95.3M ac / beans 84.7M ac). With ample supply projections and several bearish factors in play, the outlook leans to the downside. ---🏦 FED & MACROGoldman Sachs now expects the first rate cut in December 2026, followed by another in March 2027 — both later than previously forecast — as elevated energy costs keep core inflation near 3%, well above the Fed's 2% target. Goldman also lowered its US recession probability to 25%, down 5 points, though still above the pre-Iran-war estimate of 20%.---⛽ FUEL PRICESNational average gasoline sits near $4.52/gal this morning, up sharply from $3.14/gal a year ago. Diesel sits near $5.64/gal vs. $3.52/gal a year ago, approaching the all-time record of $5.82 set in June 2022.
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