Podcast
Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Hosted by Joe Vaclavik · EN
Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.
113episodes
Episodes
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Wheat Futures Tank + More Chinese Purchases of US Soybeans
2w ago00:18:01Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Grain Markets Wheat futures fell sharply Friday as traders took profits after Thursday's Black Sea-driven rally. Corn and soybeans also finished lower, pressured by improving weather forecasts calling for widespread Corn Belt rainfall and cooler temperatures. 🌧️ 🇨🇳 China Ramps Up Soybean Buying China purchased at least 14 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday, marking its largest single-day buying spree of July. Traders expect more purchases ahead of trade talks later this fall, with China's new-crop commitments now nearing 3.9 million metric tons. 🚢🌱 📦 USDA Flash Sale USDA also reported a flash sale of 252,000 metric tons (9 million bushels) of soybeans to an unknown destination for the 2026/27 marketing year. 📈 💰 Funds Turn More Bullish Managed money funds were net buyers of 70,000 corn, 30,000 soybean, and 10,000 SRW wheat contracts last week. Net long positions in both corn and soybeans climbed to their highest levels since late May. 📊 🌱 Corteva Raises Outlook Corteva raised its full-year profit forecast, citing strong demand across key crop markets. The company said increased soybean acreage should support seed sales, though fewer corn acres and higher input costs could weigh on crop protection demand later this year. 🌽➡️🫛 🛢️ Iran Talks Resume US-Iran peace talks are set to resume today after President Trump called off a planned military strike in favor of diplomacy. Hopes for a deal, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sent WTI crude oil below $79 per barrel in early Monday trading. 🤝📉
Transcribe →Corn Belt Rain = Sad Grain Markets
3w ago00:23:31Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZc...🌵 USDA's weekly Drought Monitor shows the worst conditions holding in Nebraska, South Dakota, Colorado, Oklahoma, and areas further west, with pockets also showing up in western Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. 29% of US corn areas and 26% of soybean areas are now in drought, though overnight rain hit South Dakota/Nebraska and radar is active this morning over MN, IA, MO, and eastern KS. Maps below 👇🌾 Grains were mixed Thursday as traders eye a wetter, cooler Corn Belt forecast for early August. Nov26 soybeans slid 4 cents to ~$11.89/bu, Dec26 corn dropped 3.25 cents to ~$4.69/bu, and wheat closed higher but gave back early gains tied to Black Sea military escalation. Charts below 📊🇨🇳 China bought more US soybeans! USDA confirmed a flash sale of 132,000mt for the 26/27 marketing year, pushing China's new-crop purchases to 3.045mmt total against the White House's 25mmt/year target. Tracker below 📈🏭 ADM is expanding its North American soy crush capacity at plants in Frankfort, IN, Deerfield, MO, Lincoln, NE, and Spiritwood, ND, mostly wrapping up by late 2028/early 2029. The upgrades add ~700,000 metric tons of annual crush capacity, translating to demand for well over 25 million bushels of US crops. 🌱⛽ Senate Republicans are set to add permanent year-round E15 sales to the farm bill, with Ag Chair John Boozman scheduling markup for Aug. 6. It's a scaled-down version of the House's May bill built on a Fischer-Capito framework, but the overall farm bill still needs 60 votes with Democrats pushing back on SNAP cost-sharing changes. 🚜
Transcribe →Soybeans PLUNGE on Wetter Forecast + 1980s Farm Crisis Repeat??
3w ago00:15:31Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybean futures tumbled Wednesday as improving weather forecasts weighed on the market, with the Nov26 contract falling roughly 27 cents to settle near $11.93/bushel. Widespread rain is expected across much of the Corn Belt later this week, and corn followed soybeans lower with Dec26 down about 9 cents to $4.72/bushel.🌾 Wheat futures are trading higher this morning amid escalating Black Sea tensions, after Reuters reported Ukrainian drones struck a grain export terminal at Russia's Taman port, causing significant damage. Ukraine also hit four Russian tankers in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, a notable development given Russia and Ukraine together account for nearly 30% of global wheat exports.🚜 Safety nets are helping prevent another 1980s-style farm crisis, even as corn and soybean farmers face negative margins for a second straight year with 2026 costs pushed higher by the US-Iran war. Economists say crop insurance, federal programs, and lower debt levels are cushioning the blow, though relief will likely require higher commodity prices or lower input costs.📈 Bunge raised its earnings outlook after a strong quarter fueled by its soybean business, with Q2 revenue surging 88% year-over-year to $24 billion. CEO Greg Heckman also flagged risk ahead, warning that fertilizer supply disruptions could hit Brazil's second corn crop and push some Argentine farmers to cut back on phosphate applications.💧 Fertilizer prices kept sliding for a seventh straight week in late July, led by a 14% drop in UAN32 and an 11% decline in anhydrous, which fell below $1,000/ton for the first time since March. Most fertilizers remain pricier than a year ago, but two new plants under construction in Mexico could boost Latin American supply.⛽ US ethanol production hit a 28-week high last week, climbing to 1.13 million barrels per day, up 3.6% week-over-week and 5.1% year-over-year. Stocks rose to 24.73 million barrels as margins stayed strong across the Corn Belt, ranging 10–35 cents positive per Reuters data.
Transcribe →The BEST Chart You'll See Today - Corn Yields and Overnight Temps
3w ago00:14:36Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 US corn is pollinating under intense heat and drought, with the western Corn Belt hit hardest and some yield damage likely irreversible even if weather improves. 🌙 Warm overnight temps in July and August could further chip away at yield potential.📈 Corn and soybean futures rallied Tuesday after Monday's USDA crop progress report showed sharper-than-expected declines in crop conditions. 🌦️ The market brushed off cooler, wetter forecasts and softer crude oil prices to keep the rally going.💵 USDA says farmers need another round of financial aid, pointing to the $12 billion proposed in the House budget resolution. ⛽ Officials also highlighted new biofuel mandates as a boost to ethanol/biodiesel demand and crop prices.🔥 Western Europe is bracing for its fourth heat wave of the summer, with temps up to 108°F and over 1 million acres already burned. 🐄 The heat and fires are hammering crop yields, water supplies, and the livestock sector alike.🚢 Black Sea shipping risks are escalating, with Russia weighing machine guns, anti-drone defenses, and armed escorts for grain vessels. 🌾 Major export terminals are restricting truck deliveries, pushing Sovecon to cut its Russian wheat export forecast by ~4%.🇺🇳 USDA confirmed another flash sale, with 197,272mt of corn sold to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 📊 The sale adds to recent momentum in export demand for the upcoming marketing year.
Transcribe →Corn Ratings TANK - Is Trend Yield Still Possible??
3w ago00:15:51Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Crop Conditions Slide as Corn Belt Bakes – US corn ratings fell to 63% good-to-excellent (down from 67%) and soybeans dropped to 63% (from 66%) as hot, dry weather hit the Corn Belt hard. 🌵 North and South Dakota are the biggest trouble spots, with corn there rated just 50% good-excellent across nearly 11% of US planted acres.☀️ Driest July in Over a Decade—Corn country saw just 3.42" of rain in July, the lowest since 2014, paired with above-normal heat. 📉 Analysts warn trend yield is at risk unless August delivers timely rain and cooler temps.🌾 European Wheat Pulls Back – Prices eased Monday as traders found Russia-Ukraine strikes hadn't seriously damaged key export terminals, while good harvest weather in Europe added pressure. ⚠️ Still, Ukraine pushed the UN Security Council for global action to protect Black Sea shipping routes.📉 Corn & Soybeans Tumble Monday – Dec26 corn fell 14¢ to $4.74/bu and Nov26 soybeans dropped nearly 40¢ to $12.14/bu on easing oil prices and better weather outlooks. 🌾 Wheat also slipped, with Sep26 Chicago down 18¢ to $6.60 and Sep26 KC off 16¢ to $7.29.🇨🇳 Fresh Soybean Sales to China—The USDA flashed a 132,000mt soybean sale to China plus another 126,000mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/2027 delivery. 📊 Check out the China Soybean Purchase Tracker for the full picture.🚢 Export Inspections Mixed – Corn shipments dipped 7.7% week-over-week to 1.5mmt, while soybeans rose 9.3% to 348,850mt (though still down 18% YoY). 🌾 Wheat stood out with a 72% weekly jump to 394,785mt, up 36% from last year.🐄 Mexico Border Reopening Boosts Meatpackers—JBS and Tyson shares surged (+10% and +5.7%) after USDA announced a phased reopening of Mexican feeder cattle imports starting late August. 📉 Cattle futures tumbled in response, with many feeder contracts hitting daily limit-down.
Transcribe →Grain Markets PLUNGE to Start the Week - Weather, Black Sea, Crude Responsible??
3w ago00:14:48Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Grains Sell Off Hard — Wheat, corn, and soybeans all dropped sharply to start the week after wheat posted downside reversals Friday. Ukraine is pushing new ship-safety measures with Russia and has called a UN Security Council meeting over attacks on grain vessels.🛢️ Mideast Tensions Ease, Oil Slides—The US and Iran paused military strikes over the weekend, sending WTI crude more than $6/bbl lower this morning even though it's still up ~15% over two weeks. That pressure is rippling across the whole commodity complex.🔥 Heat Dome Locks In Over the Corn Belt — A stationary heat dome is pushing temps 10-15°F above normal with brutal humidity across the Plains and Corn Belt this week. A brief cooldown may show up later this week, and a shift toward rain in the forecast likely helped trigger this morning's selloff.💰 House Passes $12B Farm Aid Package — The $95B budget resolution squeaked through 216-214, pairing farm aid with $73B in defense/Iran-war spending. Farm groups are cheering the aid, but the Senate still has to pass its own version before anything's final.📊 Funds Pile Into Corn & Beans — The latest COT data shows managed money net buying 45k corn and 55k soybean contracts, pushing both net-long positions to their highest since early June. Wheat saw smaller buying too, with funds adding 16k SRW contracts.🐄 Mexican Cattle Imports Set to Resume — The Douglas, AZ border crossing reopens to Mexican cattle August 24, with more ports to follow, after being closed since November 2024 over screwworm concerns. Disinfectant dip vats will screen all incoming cattle as the closest active case sits 325 miles away.📈 Cattle Reports: Mostly Neutral — Friday's Cattle on Feed numbers landed right in line with expectations, so traders shrugged it off. The Cattle Inventory report was more mixed—a shrinking beef cow herd is bullish, but more replacement heifers lean neutral-to-bearish.
Transcribe →Crude Oil Surges... Can Grains Follow?
4w ago00:27:39Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🛢️ Oil prices surged Thursday, with WTI crude jumping 6.2% to $92.19/barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea raised concerns about global oil supplies. Higher crude prices are also pushing fuel costs higher, with the national average gasoline price climbing to $4.09/gallon. ⛽ 🌽 Grain markets were mixed. Soybeans extended their rally, with November 2026 futures gaining about 5 cents on support from rising crude oil prices and forecasts for hotter Corn Belt weather next week. Corn added about 3 cents, while wheat turned lower after early gains as traders took profits despite ongoing Black Sea shipping disruptions. 📈 🚢 USDA announced a flash sale of 126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year. 🌦️ Drought conditions worsened across parts of the Corn Belt and Northern Plains as hot, dry weather persisted. Conditions improved in Kentucky, but drought expanded in the Dakotas, northern Illinois, southeastern Minnesota, and southeastern Nebraska. South Dakota even declared a statewide drought emergency. Current drought coverage includes 20% of corn, 18% of soybeans, 47% of winter wheat, 25% of spring wheat, and 44% of U.S. cattle. 🌾 🌾 North Dakota's spring wheat crop is coming in below USDA expectations. Crop tour scouts estimate yields at 48 bpa, well below the USDA's 58 bpa forecast. While dry weather has reduced disease pressure, prolonged heat and limited rainfall have trimmed yield potential, and additional heat could lower yields further before harvest. 📊 Weekly export sales disappointed again. Corn sales totaled 13 million bushels, soybeans 2 million bushels, and wheat 11 million bushels, with all three commodities landing at or below trade expectations. Mexico was the top buyer of corn and wheat, while China was the largest soybean buyer.
Transcribe →Wheat Prices SURGE on Black Sea Disruptions - Corn/Soybeans Hit Fresh Highs
4w ago00:17:21Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚢 Russia restricts Novorossiysk port traffic — Russia has imposed overnight shipping restrictions (midnight–5am) at Novorossiysk, its largest grain export port, due to rising drone attack threats. Grain rerouted from the Sea of Azov is making the port even more critical, though daytime operations continue normally.🌾 Wheat futures surge on Black Sea tensions — Chicago wheat jumped ~28 cents to $7.06/bu and KC wheat gained ~31 cents to $7.64/bu as Russian strikes hit Odesa region ports and infrastructure. Corn and soybeans also climbed on looming Corn Belt heat and rising freight insurance costs.🇪🇺 EU grain production set to plunge—European grain output is projected to fall over 9% from last year, the steepest drop in two decades, as heat waves crush wheat and corn yields. Higher fertilizer/fuel costs from the US-Iran war pushed farmers to cut inputs and acreage, sending Paris wheat futures up ~20% this month.🌱 ND wheat tour wraps up—Southern ND spring wheat scouted at 46 bpa (below last year's 50 but above the 5-yr average), while northwest/north-central areas came in stronger at 48 bpa. Acreage hit its lowest since 1969, with scouts surveying the fewest fields on record.🛢️ Houthi attacks rattle oil markets — Yemen's Houthis claimed responsibility for strikes on two Red Sea oil tankers, sending WTI up ~3% to near $87/barrel. Trump threatened Iranian infrastructure if Strait of Hormuz attacks continue, and Iran vowed retaliation against US-linked energy facilities.📊 CME downplays perpetual futures demand — CEO Terry Duffy said institutional clients (94% of volume) show little interest in never-expiring contracts, even as Kalshi pursues its own perpetual futures for precious metals. Duffy argued perps suit retail more than institutional hedging needs.⛽ Ethanol production ticks up—weekly output rose to 1.09M bpd, up 5.2% week-over-week, while stocks grew to 24.48M barrels. Corn Belt margins stayed strong, running 10–35 cents positive per Reuters data.
Transcribe →Joe is Worried About ND, SD, MN, NE - Too Hot, Too Dry
4w ago00:13:23Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Iowa Weather & Crops — Warm, dry conditions gave Iowa farmers 6.7 days suitable for fieldwork last week, pushing corn and soybeans through key growth stages, though dry soil is becoming a concern as corn enters pollination. 🌧️ A more active pattern with widespread rain chances is on tap for the Corn Belt this week, though the GFS turned notably drier (and warmer) overnight vs. yesterday's run.🌾 Wheat Rallies on Black Sea Tensions — Chicago wheat jumped ~9 cents to $7.33/bu and KC wheat gained 4 cents to $6.78/bu after Russia banned vessels from anchoring at two Sea of Azov ports. 🚢 Analysts already slashed Russia's July export forecast 25%, while ongoing strikes on Ukraine's Black Sea ports have cut its export capacity by roughly a third.🇺🇸 Grassley Pushes Market Solutions — Senator Grassley says farmers need stronger markets over more government payments, backing year-round E15 as a bigger long-term fix than the proposed $11B aid package. 💰 He's also renewing calls to cut production costs, pointing to his Fertilizer Research Act and pressing the Trump administration on why Brazil's costs run so much lower.📉 Sovecon Cuts Russian Wheat Forecast — Sovecon trimmed its 2026 Russian wheat estimate to 88.3mmt from 88.9mmt on weak southern yields, down from last season's 91.4mmt crop. ⚔️ The downgrade lands right as Black Sea shipping tensions heat back up.🥇 Kalshi Eyes Metals Perpetuals — Kalshi has asked the CFTC to approve perpetual futures on gold, silver, and platinum, building on its May approval for crypto perps. ⚖️ CME is, meanwhile, suing over whether these "perpetual futures" are really just unregulated swaps, with Kalshi's bitcoin perp alone moving $31.5B in 24 hr volume.
Transcribe →Early Models Suggest RECORD US National Avg Corn Yield
4w ago00:16:57Tap to summarizeJoe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybeans surged to a two-month high near $12.26/bu as hot, dry Corn Belt weather and fresh Chinese buying fueled the rally. 🇨🇳 Renewed Chinese purchases appear to be the bigger driver, with US weather concerns playing a secondary role.🌽 Corn futures added nearly 6 cents to settle around $4.73/bu, supported by weather worries even as a cooler forecast may cap further gains. 📦 USDA also confirmed fresh flash sales, including soybeans to China and unknown destinations plus corn to Colombia for 2026/2027 delivery.🌾 Russian wheat export prices jumped 3% as Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Black Sea shipping and cut July export forecasts by 25%. ⚓ Added tension in the Strait of Hormuz and a slower Russian harvest pace are compounding uncertainty over global wheat supplies.📊 US corn conditions slipped slightly to 67% good-to-excellent while soybeans improved to 66%, both still running above their five-year averages. 🌤️ Spring wheat ratings fell to 53% good-to-excellent, but winter wheat harvest progress jumped to 74% complete, ahead of the average pace.⛽ Gas and diesel prices keep climbing as the US-Iran conflict escalates, with regular gas now averaging $4.00/gallon and diesel at $5.11/gallon. 🛢️ WTI crude is up roughly 20% this month to $83.23/barrel, driven by shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.🚢 Corn export inspections stayed strong at 1.5mmt, up 57% year-over-year, while soybean and wheat shipments both came in below expectations. 🇨🇳 China made up about 22% of last week's export inspections.🇨🇦 The Trump administration plans a 50% tariff on select Canadian imports starting August 19, covering dairy, alcohol, and cement—even USMCA-exempt goods. 🤝 Canada is downplaying the threat as familiar posturing, while Mexico remains the top buyer of US corn amid the shifting trade landscape.
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