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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽 Frost risk is rising across the Corn Belt this week as temperatures trend below normal, particularly in northern areas. Heavy rain is also expected to slow planting progress. Storm systems are forecast to bring rainfall across the central and southern Plains, though wheat yield damage in those regions has likely already occurred. The Northern Plains remain mostly dry but face below-normal temperatures and freeze potential.

📈 Corn futures rallied Friday on rising fertilizer prices tied to the Iran war, which traders fear could reduce yields. The July '26 contract gained nearly 6¢ to settle near $4.80/bu, while the Dec '26 contract traded above $5.00/bu for the first time this year. Cold, wet conditions across the central and eastern Corn Belt added to bullish sentiment. Soybeans and wheat also closed higher.

📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (week ending Apr. 28): Large money managers were net buyers of 83k corn contracts — the net long of 266k is the largest since late March. Funds were net sellers of 11k soybean contracts. SRW wheat saw net buying of 20k contracts, pushing the net long to 12k—the largest since June 2022. Managed money also holds a record net long in spring wheat and is near-record net long soybean oil.

🚢 Iranian grain imports have collapsed as vessels idle at sea rather than risk transiting the Strait of Hormuz amid the US blockade. War-risk insurance costs are prohibitive. Iran, heavily dependent on imported feed grains for its meat and dairy sectors, is seeing staple food prices surge — eggs up 118% and bread up 80% since the war began. Rerouting attempts have not offset lost volumes.

🇲🇽 Mexico replaced its agriculture minister. President Sheinbaum named Columba López Gutiérrez to replace Julia Berdegué, who moves to an advisory role as the US, Mexico, and Canada review the USMCA ahead of a July 1 deadline on whether to extend the agreement 16 years or let it expire. Berdegué had also been leading New World screwworm talks with the US — an issue with little improvement. Mexico is the largest buyer of US corn.

🌽 USDA flash sale: US exporters sold 148,240 MT (≈6 mil bu) of corn to unknown destinations — 78,240 MT for 2025/26 delivery and 70,000 MT for 2026/27 delivery.