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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

Gas prices are climbing again, hitting a national average of $4.17/gallon, with analysts warning of $4.20 within days as oil hovers near $100/barrel amid the US-Iran conflict and near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Emergency oil reserves worldwide are being drawn down rapidly, raising supply alarm bells.

US winter wheat conditions remain historically weak — the top 5 HRW states are averaging just 13.8% good-excellent, with Nebraska's crop sitting at a staggering 65% poor-very poor. Corn and soybean planting are running ahead of the average pace.

Wheat futures rallied Monday on crude strength, a weaker dollar, and dry Plains conditions. Chicago May26 wheat settled near $6.22, KC May26 near $6.67, with both HRW and HRS posting fresh highs. Corn and beans also closed higher, with Dec26 corn hitting fresh 1-month highs overnight.

The Iran war is triggering a major fertilizer crisis—over half of the Middle
East's urea production has been disrupted, with roughly 30% of global urea trade affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure. Farmers worldwide may be forced to cut application rates, threatening yields and global food security.
The Trump administration is expected to unveil a fertilizer investment plan this week, targeting both short-term price relief and long-term domestic production reshoring, while the USDA and DOJ investigate potential price gouging.

US corn export inspections came in at 65 million bushels for the week ending April 23 — solid but down slightly week-over-week. Soybean shipments were up 37% vs. last year, with China taking ~39% of inspections. Wheat shipments came in near the top of expectations at 13 million bushels.