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🌱💰 Fertilizer companies are cashing in on the Iran conflict. CF Industries and Nutrien both reported roughly 20% increases in quarterly sales as nitrogen fertilizer prices surged. Both companies also posted substantial gains in adjusted EPS. Since the conflict began, urea prices in New Orleans have jumped about 36%. 📈 Meanwhile, US natural gas prices haven't risen as sharply as other regions, allowing fertilizer producers to capture stronger profit margins. Despite elevated prices, fertilizer demand is expected to stay strong as farmers still need nutrients to maintain crop yields.

☮️🛢️ The US and Iran may be nearing a peace agreement. Washington submitted a one-page memorandum of understanding outlining a plan to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade on Iranian ports. Iran has not yet accepted the proposal, with leadership indicating parts of the deal are unrealistic. 📉 The announcement sent stocks surging and oil prices tumbling—US crude fell roughly 7% to settle near $95/bbl. The nearby Jun26 WTI contract trades near $93/bbl this morning after peaking above $105/bbl earlier this week. That $12/bbl selloff in less than 24 hours weighed heavily on the grain complex.

🌽📉 Grain futures tumbled Wednesday on peace deal prospects. The Dec26 corn contract fell nearly 11 cents to settle at $4.90/bu. The Nov26 soybean contract declined 14 cents to close near $11.76/bu. Traders are watching next week's Trump-Xi meeting, though the likelihood of China returning to buy large volumes of US soybeans remains low. 🌾 Wheat also moved lower—Jul26 Chicago wheat fell ~11 cents to $6.17/bu, while Jul26 Kansas City wheat slipped 3 cents to $6.87/bu.

⛽ US ethanol production ticked up last week. Weekly output came in at 1.02 million barrels per day, up 1% vs. the prior week but down 2.2% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 26.02 million barrels, +1% week-over-week and +2.5% year-over-year. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain strong at 5 to 45 cents positive based on Reuters data.

🇧🇷🌱 Brazil's soybean acreage is projected to increase only slightly in 2026/2027. Rising fertilizer costs driven by the Middle East conflict are limiting expansion incentives. Additionally, the potential for a strong El Niño is weighing on acreage decisions — this weather pattern would raise drought risk in northern and west-central regions while increasing excessive rainfall risk in southern Brazil.