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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

Farm bill votes are underway—amendments Wednesday night, final vote expected Thursday. The E15 fuel controversy nearly derailed it, but that plan's been dropped. Bipartisan support is building despite House Democrat leadership opposition, as farmers facing rising costs and bankruptcies need relief now.

Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith is pushing to cut fertilizer costs with the Lowering Input Costs for American Farmers Act, targeting tariffs on phosphate imports from Morocco — which controls over 70% of global phosphate reserves. The American Farm Bureau and American Soybean Association are on board.

Oil surged nearly 7% Wednesday to $106.88/barrel as Strait of Hormuz disruptions look increasingly long-term. Trump says the blockade holds until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal — and Tehran isn't blinking. Markets are starting to price in a real supply shock, not just geopolitical noise.

Wheat futures pulled back slightly after hitting a near two-year high, settling at $6.53/bu on the July26 contract. Drought concerns across the Plains remain, and the forecasted rain is expected to miss the driest areas. Corn and soybeans both closed higher.

Bunge raised its 2026 profit outlook after a strong Q1 beat—higher soybean oil prices, solid crush margins, and rising biofuel demand driven by new EPA mandates are all tailwinds. Trade tensions and supply chain risk remain the key unknowns.

US ethanol production dipped to 1.01M bpd last week, down 3% week-over-week. Stocks fell to 25.88M barrels. Despite the drop, Corn Belt ethanol margins remain solidly positive at 15–40 cents.

The Farm Lobby is WEAK! Year-Round E15 Ethanol Dropped from Farm Bill