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🇺🇸🇧🇷 U.S.-Brazil Trade Tensions Escalate

🚨 The Trump administration announced 25% tariffs on many Brazilian imports, effective July 22, citing unfair trade practices. While beef, coffee, and energy products are exempt, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, and ethanol are not. A separate investigation could push tariffs on some Brazilian goods as high as 37.5%.

🇧🇷 Brazil is weighing a response but is avoiding tariffs for now. Instead, it is considering measures such as suspending patent protections for pharmaceutical products and agricultural seeds. President Lula has not yet approved the plan, and both countries remain open to negotiations, though the trade dispute could escalate.

🌽 Farm Financial Stress Continues

📉 U.S. farmers are expected to post a sixth straight year of losses in 2027. The American Farm Bureau Federation projects $32 billion in losses across major row crops, with corn, soybean, and wheat margins all expected to remain below breakeven.

💸 Weak crop prices and stubbornly high input costs—made worse by the recent U.S.-Iran conflict—continue to pressure farm profits. The Farm Bureau is urging Congress to provide additional financial assistance and advance long-term policies to strengthen the farm economy.

🌦️ Drought Update

🌧️ Heavy rain improved drought conditions across southern Kentucky, southern Illinois, and southeastern Missouri. However, dry weather allowed drought to expand in northern Missouri and northern Wisconsin.

🔥 The High Plains saw above-normal temperatures, although rain improved conditions in parts of the Dakotas and western Nebraska. This week's intense heat across the Northern Plains is expected to worsen next week's drought outlook.

Current drought coverage:

🌽 Corn: 19%
🌱 Soybeans: 18%
🌾 Winter Wheat: 48%
🌾 Spring Wheat: 24%
🐄 Cattle: 44%

📉 Grain Markets Pull Back

🌽 Corn and soybean futures ended lower Thursday as weak export sales and a wetter Corn Belt forecast pressured prices.

🌽 December 2026 corn: $4.64/bu (-6¢)
🫘 November 2026 soybeans: $11.95/bu (-7¢)

🌾 Wheat futures were mixed after Wednesday's rally. Ongoing attacks in Ukraine's Odesa port and the Sea of Azov continue to raise concerns about grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, which together account for about one-third of global wheat exports.

🚢 Export Sales Disappoint

📉 Corn export sales fell to a marketing-year low last week at 315,000 metric tons (12 million bushels)—well below expectations and sharply lower than recent weeks. Japan was the top buyer.

🫘 Soybean sales totaled 188,300 metric tons (7 million bushels), near the low end of expectations. China was the largest buyer and purchased just over 1 million metric tons of new-crop U.S. soybeans, its biggest weekly purchase since January.

🌾 Wheat sales also disappointed at 235,100 metric tons (9 million bushels), with Japan again leading purchases.