Podcast Summary: History As It Happens – Bonus Ep! International Gangsterism
Host: Martin Di Caro | Guest: Anatol Lieven (Quincy Institute)
Date: January 21, 2026

Episode Overview

This special bonus episode examines the escalating diplomatic chaos surrounding President Trump's renewed interest in acquiring Greenland and its alarming global implications. Host Martin Di Caro speaks with Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute, exploring how history, ego, and great power politics collide in real time at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Featuring contemporary quotes from Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, and historical parallels, the episode dissects the erosion of US credibility, the unravelling "rules-based order," and the global reaction to American leadership under Trump.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump's Greenland Gambit and Davos Speech

• Trump's Demand for Greenland: Trump continues his unusual efforts to acquire Greenland, addressing 60 world leaders at Davos with vague threats and promises not to use force (00:06–00:51).

  • Notable Trump Quote [00:23]:

    “We probably won’t get anything unless I decide to use excessive strength and force, where we would be, frankly, unstoppable. But I won’t do that. Okay? Now everyone’s saying, oh, good. That’s probably the biggest statement I made because people thought I would use force. I don’t have to use force. I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force. All the United States is asking for is a place called Greenland.” — Donald Trump

• International Concerns: The speech is described as “meandering” and “incoherent,” causing unease among allies. Canadian PM Mark Carney responds with a critique of US conduct, warning of the unraveling world order (00:51–01:42).

2. The World’s Response and “Rupture” in Global Order

• Mark Carney on Systemic Rupture [01:16]:

  “We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition. Over the past two decades, a series of crises in finance, health, energy and geopolitics have laid bare the risks of extreme global integration. But more recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited.” — Mark Carney

• Continued US Overextension: Lieven and Di Caro discuss how the US’ unnecessary foreign adventures continue a pattern of overextension for non-vital interests, now exemplified by Trump’s obsession with Greenland (01:42–02:24).

3. Historical Parallels & the “Credibility Curse”

• Comparison to Brezhnev: Lieven likens Trump’s rambling style and detachment from reality to late-Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev, warning of the global and domestic consequences when a nation’s rhetoric becomes detached from observable reality (02:55–04:39).

  • Lieven’s Analysis [02:55]:

    “He sounded like the old Soviet leader Brezhnev towards the end, who would ramble and ramble and, you know, make wild accusations against the west and then stress his desire for peace and contradict himself... until he became a joke to his own people in the world. And, I mean, I wouldn’t say Trump is a joke because he’s much too dangerous for that. But, you know, it really doesn’t increase respect for the United States.”

• The Dangers of Insult Over Injury: Drawing on Machiavelli, Lieven argues that humiliation inflicted by Trump on allies (notably Canada and Europe) is more corrosive and less easily forgiven than any direct injury (06:05–07:38).

  • Lieven on Humiliation [06:05]:

    “It’s more dangerous to humiliate somebody—and leave them alive—than it is actually to injure them. People forgive an injury more readily than an insult. That’s even more true of countries... the contempt that Trump has shown for Canada, the rest of the world, and for Europe is doing profound damage to the image of America in the eyes of their populations.”

4. US Image and Global Implications

• Erosion of Credibility: Persistent falsehoods from US officials risk collapsing the state’s credibility both internationally and domestically, as occurred in the USSR (04:39–06:05).
• Skepticism in the Global South: The U.S. image is already poor in much of the Global South, further tarnished by Trump’s rhetoric, though Lieven concedes Trump has at least dampened some risks of open conflict with Russia and China, unlike past administrations (07:38–09:07).

5. Rethinking US Alliances & The World Order

• On Europe’s Self-Defense: Di Caro and Lieven highlight a shared belief that Europe should shoulder more responsibility for its own security, a point Trump has (albeit chaotically) pushed, and that the time for US global primacy is ebbing (09:07–10:02).
• Mark Carney’s Critique of the Old Order [10:02]:

  “We knew the story of the international rules-based order was partially false, that the strongest would exempt themselves when convenient... This fiction was useful. And American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods... We placed the sign in the window. We participated in the rituals, and we largely avoided calling out the gaps between rhetoric and reality. This bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.”

6. Critical Reflection on U.S. Power and Moral Illusions

• Failures of Prior Administrations: Host and guest jointly criticize earlier US governments for interventionism, illusions of moral leadership, and the harm caused by both military action and sanctions (11:16–11:50).

  • Lieven's Take [11:24]:

    “We have both been bitter critics of previous US Administrations precisely for their... interventionism, but also their colossal illusions about the world and about American idealism and values and about what America could achieve.”

• Canada’s Calculated Alignment: Lieven notes even countries like Canada have often acted against their own interests purely to maintain US favor and protection (11:50–12:19).

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Donald Trump [00:23]: “We probably won’t get anything unless I decide to use excessive strength and force, where we would be, frankly, unstoppable. But I won’t do that. ...All the United States is asking for is a place called Greenland.”
• Mark Carney [01:16]: “We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition. ...Great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons...”
• Anatol Lieven [02:55]: “He sounded like the old Soviet leader Brezhnev...”
• Anatol Lieven [06:05]: “It’s more dangerous to humiliate somebody—and leave them alive—than it is actually to injure them. ...the contempt that Trump has shown... is doing profound damage to the image of America.”
• Mark Carney [10:02]: “We knew the story of the international rules-based order was partially false... This fiction was useful... This bargain no longer works.”
• Anatol Lieven [11:24]: “We have both been bitter critics of previous US Administrations... their colossal illusions about the world and about American idealism and values...”

Memorable Moments

• Host Parallels Trump’s Letter to Brezhnev’s Era: Stark warning on the fate of states whose rhetoric loses all credibility (04:39).
• Lieven’s Blend of Realpolitik and Moral Philosophy: From Machiavelli to modern humiliation, insight on the true sources of lasting resentment among nations (06:05).
• Historical Irony: The world’s “rules-based order” described as useful fiction—now breaking down, per Carney—after decades of collective pretense (10:02).

Major Segments & Timestamps

• 00:06–00:51 – Trump’s Davos remarks and “Greenland not by force” statement
• 01:16–01:42 – Mark Carney’s warning about global order rupturing
• 02:24–04:39 – Lieven’s analysis: Trump as Brezhnev, the problem of leadership credibility
• 06:05–07:38 – The “credibility curse” and the dangers of humiliation
• 10:02–11:16 – Carney’s speech on the end of the “useful fiction” of the rules-based order
• 11:24–11:50 – Critiques of prior US administrations’ “illusions”

Tone & Language

The episode is candid, analytical, and laced with historical references and wry humor. Lieven’s British realism combines with Di Caro’s probing journalistic skepticism, creating a tone that’s both urgent and accessible.

For listeners new to the episode:
This conversation distills the anxieties, historical lessons, and raw diplomatic dangers unfolding as the U.S. leadership moves further from consensus reality, and as cracks in the old order become impossible to ignore. Recommended for anyone interested in the deep roots and real-time consequences of international power politics.