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[00:02]
Martin
This is a bonus episode of history as it happens. It's July 29, 2026. Is Saudi Arabia on the way to becoming a nuclear power? Well, it's possible now because a long sought after agreement with the United States will allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium on its soil. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been trying to seal such a deal for more than five years. Past US Officials opposed it because the Saudis could use the American technology to pursue a nuclear weapon in violation of the non proliferation treaty Saudi Arabia acceded to in 1988. Under President Trump, the Crown Prince finally got what he wanted. However, the day after announcing the deal, the President caused some confusion by tacking on a condition. So it's not entirely clear right now if this deal will survive.
[00:49]
Unnamed Guest or Analyst
In order to do it, they have to be a member of the Abraham Accords, which have been very successful. But it's time now that they do it. They and others didn't want to do it because of the problem that they had with ir. You don't have that problem anymore. You don't have a great power there anymore. You have a problem, but the problem is disappearing day by day.
[01:11]
Martin
Aaron Dumbacher, a nuclear weapons expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, says in the past, US Civil nuclear cooperation agreements allowed for more peaceful use of nuclear technology for energy, medical and research purposes. Without the facilities to enrich nuclear material. Enrichment levels below roughly 5%, she says, are all that is required for energy generation. If enriched to high levels, weaponization seems likely. US Policy has historically been to curtail enrichment and ask countries with peaceful nuclear programs to sign on to an international monitoring and inspections regime. And that goes all the way back to Atoms for Peace. President Eisenhower. Speaking before the UN General Assembly December 8, 1953, he unveiled his plan to deal with a dangerous nuclear arms race. He proposed creating an iaea, an International Atomic Energy Agency, reducing stockpiles and sharing peaceful atomic technology for medicine, agriculture and electricity.
[02:13]
President Eisenhower
The more important responsibility of this atomic energy agency would be to devise methods whereby this fissionable material would be allocated to serve the peaceful pursuits of mankind. Experts would be mobilized to apply atomic energy to the needs of agriculture, medicine and other peaceful activities. A special purpose would be to provide abundant electrical energy in the power starved areas of the world.
[02:42]
Martin
And Iran was one of the first beneficiaries of Atoms for Peace. Saudi Arabia never showed interest in building new nuclear reactors until relatively recently. In an article for msNow, nuclear weapons expert Joe Cirincione says, In 2013, the Saudis unveiled a plan to build as many as 16 reactors. But Saudi nuclear power reactors make little economic sense. He says nuclear is the most expensive way to produce electricity. Saudi Arabia sits on an ocean of oil and is ideally suited for much cheaper solar and wind energy production. Still, Cirincione says if it just wanted to waste its money on reactors, that wouldn't be a problem, but it wants much more. Joe Cirincione, a career expert on nuclear non proliferation, now writes the strategy and history newsletter on Substack. Welcome back to the show.
[03:33]
Joe Cirincione
Thank you, Martin. Pleasure to be here again.
[03:35]
Martin
You are my unofficial nuclear weapons history of proliferation expert for history. As it happens, we what is the history of Saudi Arabia's nuclear ambitions? For instance, Saudi Arabia did not benefit from the Atoms for Peace program under Eisenhower in the 1950s, although Iran did
[03:57]
Joe Cirincione
right in the 1950s. Eisenhower thought that the way to solve this problem of sharing nuclear technology without giving people the means to make nuclear weapons was this Atoms for Peace program where we would sell technology for peaceful nuclear purposes so they could build reactors, et cetera, do medical research, research. Saudi Arabia wasn't at all interested at that point. The Shah of Iran was, you know, we had installed the Shah of Iran in the 1953 coup where we overthrew the government of Iran and put the Shah in. And in the 1970s, the Shah of Iran was very interested in building up a nuclear program in Iran and made deals with the United States that included not just building nuclear reactors, but also plans for uranium enrichment, plans for plutonium reprocessing. Saudi Arabia didn't play a role at all in those days. Saudi Arabia's interest in nuclear technology seems to have risen up in about 2009, 2010, when there was this upsurge of interest from Arab nations in nuclear technologies because of what Iran was doing. Because of the growth of Iran's centrifuge program, not much came of it until about 2013 when Saudi Arabia announced a plan to build 16 nuclear reactors, a very ambitious number of nuclear reactors. And this of course, course got nuclear reactor contractors salivating over the prospect of these contracts in what was then a generally moribund nuclear power market. Not much came of that. Nobody actually built anything until this breakthrough agreement with the United States, which the President signed just a couple of weeks ago.
[05:42]
Martin
So Saudi Arabia did accede to the NPT, the Non Proliferation Treaty in 1988. But I guess that was then, this is now.
[05:51]
Joe Cirincione
We should be very clear about this. The agreement that Saudi Arabia and the United States signed is green lighting the Saudi nuclear bomb program for two reasons. One, is that Saudi Arabia it doesn't make any economic sense at all for Saudi Arabia to build nuclear reactors. They produce most of their electricity right now by burning fossil fuel. They want to diversify from that. They are awash in sunshine and wind. It would cost them approximately 10 times more to generate electricity from nuclear energy than it would from solar, wind and natural gas. So it doesn't make any economic sense. But second is that they don't want just the nuclear reactors. They want the whole fuel cycle. They want the ability to enrich uranium and reprocess plutonium. Now there are legitimate civilian uses for that.
[06:45]
Martin
To listen to the rest of this 17 minute episode Tap subscribe now in the show Notes or go to historyasithappens.com to sign up for your subscription which is only $5 a month. You'll enjoy ad free listening all of our bonus content and early access to every new episode of History as it happens. Become a subscriber today.

Summary4 min read

History As It Happens – "Saudi Nukes (Bonus)"

Host: Martin Di Caro
Guest: Joe Cirincione, nuclear non-proliferation expert
Date: July 30, 2026
Length of available content: ~7 minutes (partial publicly available transcript)

Episode Overview

This bonus episode examines Saudi Arabia’s recent nuclear agreement with the United States, unraveling its significance in the context of nuclear non-proliferation and Middle Eastern geopolitics. Host Martin Di Caro invites expert Joe Cirincione to clarify what the deal means, the historical roots of Saudi nuclear ambitions, and why these developments could mark a turning point both regionally and globally.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The US-Saudi Nuclear Agreement: Watershed or Worry?

Background: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has long pursued a deal enabling domestic uranium enrichment.
Recent Development: Under President Trump, the US granted Saudi Arabia its wish—potentially allowing enrichment on Saudi soil, a critical step toward weapons capability.
Uncertainty: A last-minute stipulation by the President (requiring Saudi participation in the Abraham Accords) throws the agreement’s future into question.

Memorable Quote:
“It's not entirely clear right now if this deal will survive.”
—Martin (00:42)

2. US Policy & the Non-Proliferation Regime

Historical US Stance: Traditionally, US civil nuclear cooperation required strict controls: no enrichment, adherence to international monitoring, and peaceful applications only.
Origins in Atoms for Peace: President Eisenhower’s 1953 UN proposal founded this approach—sharing atomic technology for “the peaceful pursuits of mankind,” not weapons (02:12).

Eisenhower’s Historic Words:
“The more important responsibility of this atomic energy agency would be to devise methods whereby this fissionable material would be allocated to serve the peaceful pursuits of mankind.”
—Pres. Eisenhower, UNGA Address (02:12)

3. Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Interest: Historical Perspective

Early Uninterest:
Saudi Arabia did not participate in Eisenhower’s Atoms for Peace. The Shah of Iran, however, was an early adopter, seeking enrichment and reprocessing.

“Saudi Arabia wasn't at all interested at that point. The Shah of Iran was. ... In the 1970s, the Shah of Iran was very interested in building up a nuclear program.”
—Joe Cirincione (03:56)

Changing Context:
Iran’s nuclear progress in the 2000s spurred Saudi and other Arab interest. By 2013, the Saudis unveiled plans for 16 reactors—motivated more by security competition than by energy need.

4. The Economics and Motives Behind Saudi Plans

Expert Skepticism:
Nuclear energy makes little economic sense for energy-rich Saudi Arabia. Cheaper, abundant solar and wind alternatives are available.

“It doesn't make any economic sense at all for Saudi Arabia to build nuclear reactors. ... It would cost them approximately 10 times more to generate electricity from nuclear energy than it would from solar, wind and natural gas.”
—Joe Cirincione (05:50–06:00)

Broader Ambition:
The real drive is acquiring the full nuclear fuel cycle—technology that allows for uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing, opening the door to weaponization.

“They want the whole fuel cycle. They want the ability to enrich uranium and reprocess plutonium. Now, there are legitimate civilian uses for that.”
—Joe Cirincione (06:10)

5. Geopolitical Implications

Link to the Abraham Accords:
There’s speculation about requiring Saudi normalization with Israel as a precondition (Abraham Accords).

“In order to do it, they have to be a member of the Abraham Accords, which have been very successful. ... You don't have a great power there anymore. You have a problem, but the problem is disappearing day by day.”
—Unnamed Analyst (00:49)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Martin on the significance of the deal:
“Is Saudi Arabia on the way to becoming a nuclear power? Well, it's possible now because a long sought after agreement with the United States will allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium on its soil.” (00:02)
Joe Cirincione’s sobering take:
“The agreement that Saudi Arabia and the United States signed is green lighting the Saudi nuclear bomb program for two reasons. One, is that Saudi Arabia it doesn't make any economic sense at all for Saudi Arabia to build nuclear reactors... But second is that they don't want just the nuclear reactors. They want the whole fuel cycle.” (05:50–06:44)

Timestamps for Major Segments

00:02–00:49: Martin sets scene; outlines new US-Saudi agreement, remaining doubts.
00:49–01:11: Unnamed analyst links deal to Abraham Accords; asserts that normalization hurdles with Israel are easing.
01:11–02:12: Martin recounts US history of civil nuclear agreements; Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace.”
02:12–02:41: Clip—President Eisenhower’s 1953 UN speech.
02:41–03:32: The Iran connection: Saudi Arabia’s late nuclear awakening, expert commentary from Joe Cirincione.
03:32–05:41: Joe Cirincione details the history of Saudi and Iranian nuclear ambitions, preceding the current controversy.
05:41–06:44: Joe lays out why the new deal is tantamount to green-lighting Saudi nuclear weapons potential.

Takeaways

The new US-Saudi nuclear agreement could be a watershed—potentially facilitating Saudi moves towards nuclear weapons capability despite historical US policy against spreading enrichment tech.
The deal raises alarm given that civilian nuclear ambitions provide plausible cover for weaponization, especially for states like Saudi Arabia with little genuine economic incentive for nuclear energy.
Historical context, from Eisenhower’s initiatives to Iran’s regional ambitions, sets the stage for Saudi Arabia’s current path—and the global proliferation risks it may entail.

Loading summary

Transcript11 lines

[00:02]
Martin
This is a bonus episode of history as it happens. It's July 29, 2026. Is Saudi Arabia on the way to becoming a nuclear power? Well, it's possible now because a long sought after agreement with the United States will allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium on its soil. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been trying to seal such a deal for more than five years. Past US Officials opposed it because the Saudis could use the American technology to pursue a nuclear weapon in violation of the non proliferation treaty Saudi Arabia acceded to in 1988. Under President Trump, the Crown Prince finally got what he wanted. However, the day after announcing the deal, the President caused some confusion by tacking on a condition. So it's not entirely clear right now if this deal will survive.
[00:49]
Unnamed Guest or Analyst
In order to do it, they have to be a member of the Abraham Accords, which have been very successful. But it's time now that they do it. They and others didn't want to do it because of the problem that they had with ir. You don't have that problem anymore. You don't have a great power there anymore. You have a problem, but the problem is disappearing day by day.
[01:11]
Martin
Aaron Dumbacher, a nuclear weapons expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, says in the past, US Civil nuclear cooperation agreements allowed for more peaceful use of nuclear technology for energy, medical and research purposes. Without the facilities to enrich nuclear material. Enrichment levels below roughly 5%, she says, are all that is required for energy generation. If enriched to high levels, weaponization seems likely. US Policy has historically been to curtail enrichment and ask countries with peaceful nuclear programs to sign on to an international monitoring and inspections regime. And that goes all the way back to Atoms for Peace. President Eisenhower. Speaking before the UN General Assembly December 8, 1953, he unveiled his plan to deal with a dangerous nuclear arms race. He proposed creating an iaea, an International Atomic Energy Agency, reducing stockpiles and sharing peaceful atomic technology for medicine, agriculture and electricity.
[02:13]
President Eisenhower
The more important responsibility of this atomic energy agency would be to devise methods whereby this fissionable material would be allocated to serve the peaceful pursuits of mankind. Experts would be mobilized to apply atomic energy to the needs of agriculture, medicine and other peaceful activities. A special purpose would be to provide abundant electrical energy in the power starved areas of the world.
[02:42]
Martin
And Iran was one of the first beneficiaries of Atoms for Peace. Saudi Arabia never showed interest in building new nuclear reactors until relatively recently. In an article for msNow, nuclear weapons expert Joe Cirincione says, In 2013, the Saudis unveiled a plan to build as many as 16 reactors. But Saudi nuclear power reactors make little economic sense. He says nuclear is the most expensive way to produce electricity. Saudi Arabia sits on an ocean of oil and is ideally suited for much cheaper solar and wind energy production. Still, Cirincione says if it just wanted to waste its money on reactors, that wouldn't be a problem, but it wants much more. Joe Cirincione, a career expert on nuclear non proliferation, now writes the strategy and history newsletter on Substack. Welcome back to the show.
[03:33]
Joe Cirincione
Thank you, Martin. Pleasure to be here again.
[03:35]
Martin
You are my unofficial nuclear weapons history of proliferation expert for history. As it happens, we what is the history of Saudi Arabia's nuclear ambitions? For instance, Saudi Arabia did not benefit from the Atoms for Peace program under Eisenhower in the 1950s, although Iran did
[03:57]
Joe Cirincione
right in the 1950s. Eisenhower thought that the way to solve this problem of sharing nuclear technology without giving people the means to make nuclear weapons was this Atoms for Peace program where we would sell technology for peaceful nuclear purposes so they could build reactors, et cetera, do medical research, research. Saudi Arabia wasn't at all interested at that point. The Shah of Iran was, you know, we had installed the Shah of Iran in the 1953 coup where we overthrew the government of Iran and put the Shah in. And in the 1970s, the Shah of Iran was very interested in building up a nuclear program in Iran and made deals with the United States that included not just building nuclear reactors, but also plans for uranium enrichment, plans for plutonium reprocessing. Saudi Arabia didn't play a role at all in those days. Saudi Arabia's interest in nuclear technology seems to have risen up in about 2009, 2010, when there was this upsurge of interest from Arab nations in nuclear technologies because of what Iran was doing. Because of the growth of Iran's centrifuge program, not much came of it until about 2013 when Saudi Arabia announced a plan to build 16 nuclear reactors, a very ambitious number of nuclear reactors. And this of course, course got nuclear reactor contractors salivating over the prospect of these contracts in what was then a generally moribund nuclear power market. Not much came of that. Nobody actually built anything until this breakthrough agreement with the United States, which the President signed just a couple of weeks ago.
[05:42]
Martin
So Saudi Arabia did accede to the NPT, the Non Proliferation Treaty in 1988. But I guess that was then, this is now.
[05:51]
Joe Cirincione
We should be very clear about this. The agreement that Saudi Arabia and the United States signed is green lighting the Saudi nuclear bomb program for two reasons. One, is that Saudi Arabia it doesn't make any economic sense at all for Saudi Arabia to build nuclear reactors. They produce most of their electricity right now by burning fossil fuel. They want to diversify from that. They are awash in sunshine and wind. It would cost them approximately 10 times more to generate electricity from nuclear energy than it would from solar, wind and natural gas. So it doesn't make any economic sense. But second is that they don't want just the nuclear reactors. They want the whole fuel cycle. They want the ability to enrich uranium and reprocess plutonium. Now there are legitimate civilian uses for that.
[06:45]
Martin
To listen to the rest of this 17 minute episode Tap subscribe now in the show Notes or go to historyasithappens.com to sign up for your subscription which is only $5 a month. You'll enjoy ad free listening all of our bonus content and early access to every new episode of History as it happens. Become a subscriber today.