Sudan's Unrelenting Agony

Summary

History As It Happens: "Sudan's Unrelenting Agony"

Host: Martin Di Caro
Guest: Alex De Waal, Executive Director of the World Peace Foundation, Tufts University
Date: July 31, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode of "History As It Happens" delves deep into the ongoing humanitarian and political catastrophe in Sudan, tracing the roots of the current civil war to the country’s colonial legacy, post-independence conflicts, and unresolved grievances. Host Martin Di Caro is joined by Sudan expert Alex De Waal for a comprehensive discussion on why peace remains elusive, the roles of regional and global powers, and what the unending instability means for Sudan and its neighbors.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Sudan's Current Crisis (00:08–07:07)

• Mass Displacement & Catastrophe:
  • Over 13 million people are displaced; atrocities include massacres, rape, and starvation.
    “Another human rights catastrophe is unfolding in Sudan.” – Volker Turk, 00:08
  • The need for gender-based violence services has quadrupled.
• Genocide & Atrocities:
  • The current conflict is described as the "first genocide of the 21st century."
  • Systematic violence continues, with evidence of war crimes by all armed factions.

Memorable Quote:

"This is in fact the first genocide of the 21st century."
– Human Rights Advocate, 01:20

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2. Historical Context: From Independence to Today (01:59–07:55)

• A History of Conflict:
  • Sudan’s 70 years since independence have been marred by civil wars and the secession of South Sudan in 2011.
  • Darfur genocide and the role of government-backed militias (Janjaweed) remain central to the current conflict.
• International Responses:
  • Earlier international attention—like the 2006 Washington rally with George Clooney and Senator Obama—has waned despite escalating violence.

Notable Moment:

“We know what is right and we know what is wrong. The slaughter of innocents is wrong. 2 million people driven from their homes is wrong. Women gang raped while gathering firewood is wrong.”
– Human Rights Activist, 03:45

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3. Who Are the Warring Parties? (07:55–15:13)

• Key Figures:
  • RSF (Rapid Support Forces): Led by Gen. Mohammad Hamdan “Hemetti” Dagalo; roots in Janjaweed militias.
  • Sudanese Armed Forces: Led by Gen. Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, acting head of the nominal Sudanese government.
• Origins of the Conflict:
  • The RSF, originally a personal militia for ousted dictator Omar Al Bashir, became a state force.
  • The split between Hemetti and Burhan exploded into civil war after the failed democratic transition post-2019.
  • The current conflict is not ideological, but a rivalry for power between factions.
• Recent Atrocities:
  • Major genocidal acts already committed by the RSF in cities like El Junayna and El Fasher, resulting in thousands killed or unaccounted for.
  • El Obeid is the latest city under siege, facing a humanitarian disaster if it falls.

Notable Quote:

"The RSF has committed two enormous genocidal acts already in this war... there is the most horrific footage of fighters rampaging, murdering people, capturing people who are trying to flee, etc. Most appalling stories."
– Alex De Waal, 09:34

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4. Peace Prospects, or Lack Thereof (15:13–16:52)

• Impasse in Negotiations:
  • Neither side is close to victory; both remain intransigent.
  • External actors perpetuate divisions and violence.
• Absence of Effective International Mediation:
  • The UN and African Union have taken a back seat, labeling Sudan “an African problem” despite knowing regional actors cannot resolve it alone.

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5. Role of South Sudan and Legacy Issues (17:03–22:54)

• The Secession of South Sudan:
  • Originated from decades of civil war, religious, and ethnic divides.
  • A Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005 set the stage for South Sudan’s independence (2011), but unresolved “oil and debt” arrangements led to further economic and political collapse in both countries.
  • Failure to fulfill agreements left both states unstable and plunged them into further conflict.

Notable Quote:

“The legacy of failing to resolve [the oil deal], the legacy of the economic turmoil that followed, the failure to debt relief, the desperation that followed in both countries, has meant that we now have a legacy of chaos, disruption, poverty and war.”
– Alex De Waal, 22:33

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6. Foreign Interference and Regional Power Struggles (24:06–31:16)

• Active Foreign Involvement:
  • The UAE gives major military support to the RSF, allegedly for gold and strategic influence.
  • A Saudi-Emirati rivalry for regional dominance exacerbates the conflict.
    "Sudan was the playground. Yemen was another playground for this and the Horn of Africa more broadly." – Alex De Waal, 27:46
  • Other actors: Egypt, Turkey, Eritrea, Russia, China, Iran, Qatar, Algeria, Libya, Chad, Ethiopia, and South Sudan—each pursuing their own agendas.
• US, UN, and International Responses:
  • US efforts for a coordinated response have been sporadic and insufficient.
  • The “Quad” (US, UAE, Egypt, Saudi Arabia) model has not produced peace.
  • Diplomatic missteps, especially between US administrations and regional rulers, wasted chances for negotiated settlement.

Notable Quote:

“The UN and the African Union are essentially missing in action. And I'm afraid what this means is that what is already the world's largest, most severe humanitarian crisis is set to get worse.”
– Alex De Waal, 32:13

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7. Why the UN is 'Missing in Action' (32:48–34:14)

• UN's Limited Role:
  • The UN has designated Sudan as an “African problem,” abdicating its responsibility and underestimating the capacity of regional actors to resolve a crisis involving non-African major powers.
  • This is expected to be a critical failure in Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’s tenure.

Memorable Quote:

“This, I think, will be among the most signal failures of the current Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, when he steps down at the end of this year.”
– Alex De Waal, 33:25

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “No Sudanese government has ever ended a war with absolute victory. There has to be a peace agreement.”
  — Alex De Waal, 15:13

• “They always hide behind the argument that this is rogue elements. Well, it's not rogue elements. They're doing it systematically.”
  — US Government Official, 29:28

• “Africa is not a tiny place.”
  — Martin De Caro, 33:22

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Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|-------------------------------------------------------| | 00:01-01:20 | The scale of the Sudan crisis | | 07:07-12:33 | Who’s fighting & why it began | | 13:42-14:54 | Role of Janjaweed, unfinished business of genocide | | 17:03-22:54 | South Sudan’s secession, oil, and new turmoil | | 24:06-27:46 | Foreign interference: UAE, Saudi, strategic interests| | 32:48-34:14 | UN abdication and failures |

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Summary Conclusion

"Sudan’s Unrelenting Agony" exposes the devastating layers of Sudan’s crisis: warlord rivalry, historical grievances, failed international diplomacy, and destructive foreign interference. Alex De Waal’s expert insight connects decades of civil war, genocide, secession, and power struggles, painting a bleak picture—one where, short of a major coordinated international effort, Sudan’s suffering is likely to deepen. This episode is a sobering reminder that, despite periodic international outrage, Sudan remains “the world’s largest, most severe humanitarian crisis” with no solution in sight.

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For more historical context and analysis, follow Martin De Caro’s newsletter and stay tuned for upcoming episodes exploring themes like ethnic nationalism and its impact on global conflict.

Transcript

[Martin DeCaro]

History as it happens. July 31, 2026. Sudan's unrelenting agony.

[Volker Turk]

Another human rights catastrophe is unfolding in Sudan.

[Alex Duval]

The conflict has caused the world's largest humanitarian crisis, displacing more than 13 million people.

[Unnamed Narrator/Reporter]

For months, both sides have sought to seize supply lines around, elevate and drone

[Unnamed Expert/Analyst]

attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure has been increasing.

[US Government Official]

The complication in Sudan, which I wish were different, and we're very involved in this, I mean, I had a meeting on SU Sudan yesterday.

[Volker Turk]

The number of women and girls requiring

[Human Rights Expert]

gender based violence services in Sudan has

[Volker Turk]

quadrupled since the conflict began five years ago.

[Unnamed Narrator/Reporter]

Elated Sudanese young and old danced in the streets after countrywide protests brought down Sudan's 30 year dictator and indicted war criminal Omar Al Bashir.

[Martin DeCaro]

70 years after Sudanese independence, the country continues to tear itself apart. Its latest civil war has displaced millions of killed unknown thousands, bearing witness to massacres, rape, starvation and genocide. Some of Sudan's regional neighbors are prolonging the conflict. No one, it seems, is capable of stopping it. Sudan cannot escape its history. That is next, as we report history as it happens. I'm Martin DeCaro.

[Human Rights Advocate]

This is in fact the first genocide of the 21st century.

[Alex Duval]

The UN has made a couple of decisions that seem to be remarkably indifferent. Really, it hasn't played a leading role. It has said that this is an African problem and it should be solved by the Africans knowing full well that the African countries surrounding Sudan are divided and that the key actors from outside are not African. So the Africans will not be able to solve them.

[Historical Narrator]

The world has gained a new nation. The Sudan, for 58 years under the joint rule of Britain and Egypt, becomes an independent republic. The proclamation of Independence is read from the balcony of the House of Representatives in Khartoum and the new flag is hoisted. Blue for the Nile, yellow for the desert, green for agriculture.

[Martin DeCaro]

70 years since Sudan achieved independence from Britain and Egypt. 7 decades scarred by civil war and genocide. This month also marks 15 years since South Sudan formally seceded. And this young country has been bathed in blood too. Three civil wars have consumed 43 of Sudan's 70 years as an independent nation state. Not counting the many years of violence and genocide in Darfur which erupted in 2003.

[Human Rights Expert]

First, a consistent and widespread pattern of atrocities, killings, rapes, burning of villages committed by janjaweed and government forces against non Arab villagers. Three fourths of those interviewed reported that the Sudanese military forces were involved in the attacks.

[Martin DeCaro]

It was during the first decade of this century when Sudan made front page news because of Darfur, because of celebrity attention, namely George Clooney.

[Field Reporter]

We started in South Sudan. It took two days to get to the border of Darfur. We heard there were a lot of refugees pouring south. We found a village called Jaques with over a thousand displaced families.

[Martin DeCaro]

And in 2006, there was a rally on the National Mall in Washington with live music. Dozens of politicians, celebrities, human rights activists and religious figures called on the world to stop the genocide. I'm sure you can recognize these two today.

[Human Rights Activist]

We know what is right and we know what is wrong. The slaughter of innocents is wrong. 2 million people driven from their homes is wrong. Women gang raped while gathering firewood is wrong.

[Human Rights Advocate]

From all sides of the political spectrum, all of them are saying the same thing, that the US policy, the UN and the world's policy on Sudan is failing. World leaders will tell you that the policy will keep us from intervening. Well, fortunately, this is not a dictatorship. You make the policy.

[Martin DeCaro]

That was Senator Barack Obama, followed by Clooney. Today there are no rallies for Sudan. An ongoing civil war is now in its fourth year with no end in sight. UN and US mediation efforts, such as they are, have amounted to nothing. At a news conference in June at the un, Pekka Havisto, the personal envoy of the Secretary General for Sudan, said the warring side still believe military victory is possible.

[Unnamed Expert/Analyst]

Is there some hope in the end of the tunnel? Of course, it depends how you look it. One of the issues that we are trying to confirm with the parties is that there's no military solution to the conflict. It looks like both of the parties, General Hemetti, General Burhan, still think that something can be achieved militarily in this conflict.

[Martin DeCaro]

Sudan's unrelenting agony may not be front of mind for most people, but it is not being ignored either. The recent fighting outside the strategically important city of El Obeid has drawn attention for its genocidal potential.

[Unnamed Narrator/Reporter]

El Abeid has become the new front in the fighting between the Sudanese army and the rsf. At least half a million people there are trapped with limited food supplies. The UN has warned of a humanitarian catastrophe in the city and last week said women were being raped just trying to get water.

[Martin DeCaro]

Paramilitary forces of the rsf Rapid support forces have been attacking El Obeid, which is being defended by the Sudanese military so far successfully, as thousands of displaced civilians poured into the city hoping to find shelter. This idea is important militarily because it could open the way for the RSF to return to the capital, Khartoum. Volker Turk is the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.

[Volker Turk]

Another human rights Catastrophe is unfolding in Sudan, this time in the capital of the strategic state of North Kordofan. Civilians have been subjected to siege like conditions for 18 months, battered by relentless drone strikes as the Sudanese armed forces and the Rapid support forces battle for control over areas surrounding the city. My office documented 15 drone strikes on Elobate and surrounding areas between 6 and 28 June which killed at least 45 civilians and injured 41. The actual number of civilian casualties is likely higher. Across the Kordofan region, drones launched by both sides have repeatedly struck markets, schools, fuel stations, water infrastructure and civilian vehicles.

[Martin DeCaro]

Alex Duval is our guest in this episode. He says the prospect for peace in Sudan is zero. Nearby countries are prolonging rather than trying to end the war. The United Arab Emirates is arming the RSF which has a horrendous human rights record of genocide and rape as a weapon of war. All sides in this conflict have committed atrocities. Sudan cannot escape its history and the so called rules based order does not exist there. Alex Duvall is the Executive Director of the World Peace foundation and a professor at Tufts University. He is considered one of the world's foremost experts on Sudan and the Horn of Africa. And he is the co author with Willow Berridge of a brand new book, the Africa's Search for Peace. Democracy in Two Viable States.

[Alex Duval]

It's good to be with you.

[Martin DeCaro]

So this year marks 70 years since Sudan's independence in 1956. It's also 15 years since the new nation of South Sudan, officially via public referendum, seceded to become a new country. But I wanted to revisit this subject with you not because of anniversaries, but because of the very disturbing details that have been coming out of Sudan as this civil war now rages well into its fourth year. Let's start with what's been happening at a city in the middle of the country. It is in North Kordofan province, which again is in Central Sudan, despite the name North Kordofan, El Obayd, a very important city which has been surrounded by the Rapid Support Forces. What is happening there?

[Alex Duval]

So El Obeid is besieged by the Rapid Support Forces, the RSF headed by General Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemetti. And it is defended by the Sudan armed forces headed by General Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, who is also the de facto head of a Sudanese government that is recognized by the United Nations. The RSF is surrounding and besieging El Obeid and threatening to capture it. Now this has two major issues of significance. The first is that it's a strategically important city. If the RSF captures it, the road will be open for the RSF to return in force to the national capital, Khartoum. The war started in Khartoum. The RSF fought heavily in Khartoum, but was driven out after nearly two years and is obviously aiming to return there. And the road will be open should it capture Harabayd. But perhaps of greater significance is the worry about the humanitarian and human rights consequences, because the RSF has committed two enormous genocidal acts already in this war. Right. In the first few weeks of the war, RSF militiamen overran a city called El Junayna, near the border with Chad, home to the ethnic Masalit group, and massacred thousands, possibly tens of thousands. And then they surrounded and besieged the city of El Fhasha, a city when they started besieging of about a million people. And as the siege tightened, they overran outlying areas. Some people fled. And by the time they attacked the city, after 500 days of starvation, siege, this was in October of last year, there were about 100,000 or so people left. And almost all of those people are unaccounted for some six to eight months on. What we know is, by their own admission, the RSF killed at least 7,000 civilians. And there is the most horrific footage of fighters rampaging, murdering people, capturing people who are trying to flee, et cetera. Most appalling stories. And the fear is that should they overrun El Obeid, then we will see a repeat of these atrocities.

[Martin DeCaro]

The people are stuck there with really no way out. There's lots of food insecurity, and there's fear of mass killings and mass rape as well.

[Alex Duval]

That's correct. The fears are slightly assuaged this week because the army managed to bring in a relief convoy and won some battles on the road. It says it's opened the road, but this is a war that goes backwards and forwards. And every time each side says, we have gained a decisive victory, we have, you know, got the other side on the back foot. It doesn't last long. So we still have every reason to fear.

[Martin DeCaro]

So the rsf, Rapid Support forces, they go back to the dictator Al Bashir, who was deposed in 2019. He had the RSF as a personal militia, if you will. He needed them just in case the army came after him. So the rsf, under a General Mohammad Hamdan, known as Hemeti and what is now the Sudanese armed forces, they're led by General Abdel Fattah Al Burhan. These two warlords got together, they cooperated to get rid of Al Bashir. There were mass demonstrations, calls for a new constitution, some semblance of a democratic transition that did not work out. The two generals interfered with that process. To make a somewhat long story shorter, their rivalry exploded into this current civil war. So this is really a war between two warlords, competing militaries for control of the country. Right. There's no high principle at stake.

[Alex Duval]

That's correct. So the spark for the war was a dispute over the status of the RSF within the armed forces because it had been, as it were, an autonomous branch of the army. And as part of the negotiations between the two, with the third party to the negotiations being the civilians who were supposedly to return to some sort of role. There was a disagreement as to whether the RSF should come under the army or whether should remain autonomous for a number of years. And obviously Burhan wanted to assert control over them. Hemetti wanted autonomy for as long as it took for him to organize himself to become the next president of Sudan. And that led to Hemetti trying to stage a coup d', etat, which didn't work. And his forces then rampaged through the city. And what this did was it unlocked old unsolved problems and it sparked a whole lot of new problems within Sudan. So the RSF was born from a notorious militia known as the Janjaweed that was responsible for large scale killings in Darfur some 20, 25 years ago.

[Human Rights Expert]

We concluded, I concluded that genocide has been committed in Darfur and that the government of Sudan and the Janjaweed bear responsibility and that genocide may still be occurring.

[Alex Duval]

The genocidal project of some of those militia was still unfinished. And the first killings of the Masalit in El Janina that I spoke about a few moments ago was, as it were, the unfinished business of that war. So in mobilizing militia forces on both sides, all sorts of local grievances were then surfaced and all sorts of local vendettas could be pursued. But then we also had a lot of new vitriol, new discontent, because major cities like Khartoum itself, like another city called Wadmedani just to the south of Khartoum, had essentially been protected during Sudan's long wars. People who lived there had lived in safety, they had lived in mixed neighborhoods, they had lived normal lives until the RSF came through looting, destroying, raping and killing and creating a huge amount of hatred and feelings of vengeance and hurt.

[Martin DeCaro]

So within these two militaries or within the civil war, there are lots of local militias who are wreaking havoc at different levels here. It's a very difficult war to follow on the battlefield. You recently gave a talk where you said peace is not possible in Sudan, right? Right now, is either side winning? What would victory even look like?

[Alex Duval]

So the government talks about total victory. It talks about completely defeating and disbanding the rsf. And frankly, that is not in prospect. Even if it were a lot more powerful, it wouldn't be able to do that. No Sudanese government has ever ended a war with absolute victory. There has to be a peace agreement. And up to now there hasn't been an effective peace process. And this is partly because the two sides are so far apart and so distrust one another. And it's not because they have really conflicting political visions. There are political differences between them, but it's purely down to rivalry and acrimony. And it's partly because of external factors, too.

[Martin DeCaro]

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[Martin DeCaro]

See terms and as you say, history playing a role here too. Historical grievances are revived once these two warlords start to go to war with each other three years ago.

[Alex Duval]

So there's a lot of unresolved business.

[Martin DeCaro]

Yeah. On that note, let's talk now about South Sudan seceded via referendum, becomes a new country in 2011. How did that event help lead to this mess today?

[Alex Duval]

So a little bit of background. So Sudan was put together by the British and the Egyptians more than a hundred years ago. And it's a very diverse country. And the most striking element of diversity was a contrast. The north that is predominantly Arabic speaking, predominantly Muslim, and the south, which was a mixture of traditional, what they call noble spiritual beliefs with Christian missionaries and Muslims there too. And that led to a succession of civil wars and the resolution of the longest running of these wars which was achieved in negotiations sponsored by the neighboring states, supported by the UN and especially by the United States states, led to something called the comprehensive peace agreement 2005.

[News Reporter]

Since 2005 the ceasefire has for the most part held. Northern troops have pulled out of the south and a new government of national unity was formed in Khartoum. A regional government of Southern Sudan was created in Juba. Oil wealth has been shared with the South. The parties have made progress on some of the disputed border areas of Abia and have passed legislation to prepare for Elections and the 2011 Referenda on Self determination.

[Martin DeCaro]

And that was Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2010. Go ahead.

[Alex Duval]

Would the South Sudanese remain part of a united Sudan or would they take the option of independence? 2011 they voted overwhelmingly for independence. And there was indeed a peaceful separation in July of of 2011, hailed at the time as a wonderful achievement. But there was some unfinished business there too. Oil Sudan was for the first decade of this century a middle ranking oil producer. And that was its major source of revenue and foreign exchange. Three quarters of the oil was in South Sudan. So when the two countries separated, South Sudan immediately became a middle income country, but highly oil dependent country. 97% of government revenue was from oil. And there are all sorts of problems that arise when you have that sort of hyper dependence on oil. And meanwhile the north suddenly bereft of its oil income, went off a sort of fiscal cliff. So there was a plan to resolve this problem as part of the negotiations for the peaceful separation of South Sudan. Now I was a member of the team under former South African President Thabu Mbeki. The African Union High level panel facilitated these talks. And actually this is the subject of the book that I've just published with Willow Barridge called the Sudan. And the core of this was a plan, a plan for two viable states. And the deal essentially was this. South Sudan would secede, get all its oil and it would also secede debt free. Northern Sudan would still shoulder the burden of something like $60 billion in international debt. But the proviso was that the two would work together with the United States and the international community to get the sanctions on Sudan lifted. It was listed as a state sponsor of terror and had all sorts of sanctions which would then lead to an expedited debt relief program. The South Sudanese would also pay over the odds for three years for shipping its oil through Northern Sudan to get it to market. And the Northern Sudanese would have an austerity budget. Now that didn't work out. And the reason it didn't Work out was primarily that the two leaders, Omar Al Bashir in Khartoum and the new president in South Sudan, Salva Kiya, were not able to get their rather quarrelsome juniors in line. And a whole host of disputes, really unnecessary disputes, unfolded on the border and in a part of Northern Sudan called the Nuba Mountains. And what that did was it led to a complete cessation in cooperation between the two. And South Sudan actually halted its oil exports, which was shooting itself in the foot because it therefore lost almost all its revenue. And the United States did not lift sanctions. And therefore the worst case scenario unfolded of the both countries going over the economic cliff, both countries being consumed by acrimonious politics leading to civil war.

[Martin DeCaro]

And that conflict continues to this date that is unresolved. Is that right?

[Alex Duval]

South Sudan was the first to go into civil war. And they did have a peace agreement called the Archis Resolution on Conflict in South Sudan 2016. But it hasn't resolved the major issues. There's still fighting ongoing. President Salva Kiir is still in power. There haven't been elections. And meanwhile in Northern Sudan, the economic crisis that unfolded was one of the sparks for the overthrow of President Bashir in 2019.

[Martin DeCaro]

So the oil issue is still unresolved.

[Alex Duval]

In principle, it is resolved. But the legacy of failing to resolve it, the legacy of the economic turmoil that followed, the failure to debt relief, the desperation that followed in both countries, has meant that we now have a legacy of chaos, disruption, poverty and war.

[Martin DeCaro]

Thank you for clarifying that. So, just to recap, Sudan's first civil war started a year before independence, 1955, ended in 1972 with the Addis Ababa Agreement granting southern autonomy. But then that autonomy was revoked by Khartoum in 1983, leading to another civil war that lasted 22 years. Roughly 2 million people killed. And the Sudan People People's Liberation army was the leading military force in the south of the country during that civil war, that is the South Sudanese military today. So as you mentioned, it ends in 2005 with a comprehensive peace agreement referring to the second civil war. And then that leads to South Sudan seceding via referendum In July of 2011, 15 years ago this month.

[News Reporter]

And now to South Sudan, which begins voting Sunday on separating from the north.

[Alex Duval]

The local stadium. A graduation ceremony yesterday for the new police class quickly turned into a rally for separation. The voting is supposed to be the

[Volker Turk]

culmination of a 2005 peace deal between Sudan's government and the Southern Sudan People's Liberation Movement, or splm, which ended two Decades of fighting.

[Martin DeCaro]

We have to also keep in mind that it was during that second civil war that the Darfur genocide happened, starting in 2003. So today the outside influence is a huge factor here. Maybe this didn't exist in those earlier conflicts. According to an article written in 2024, two years ago by the Wilson Center, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Algeria, Libya, uae, Turkey, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Russia, China, Chad and South Sudan have all interfered in this civil war that's been going on for more than three years now. Let's start with the uae, which continues to deny that it's sending weapons to the rsf, even though everyone knows it. It does. What is the United Arab Emirates interest in prolonging the war in Sudan?

[Alex Duval]

So there's really no doubt that the UAE is by far the biggest provider of external military support to the war in Sudan and that it is supporting the rsf. The UAE denies it. And one of the problems about that is that it is therefore impossible to have a conversation with the UAE at any level about what are its interests. What would it take for the UAE to come to the table or to step back? So there's a lot of speculation about it. Some people talk about gold because it gets a lot of gold from Sudan. It's invested in land in Sudan. But to me, these don't add up. These commercial interests are simply not commensurate with the scale of the commitment. And I suspect it comes down to a much bigger UAE strategic positioning in the world today, whereas it sees itself quite correctly at the fulcrum of some of the most difficult and contested issues around the world. And it wants a strategic depth, a strategic perimeter, and above all, it wants to be able to position itself in the economic wars that are unfolding, the currency wars and so on, as a very small, very vulnerable country in a very, very hot position. Having access to, not just to Sudan, but to Ethiopia, more broadly in Africa, to other parts of the Middle east, is a way of strategically, as you go, spreading its influence, getting access to resources, et cetera.

[Martin DeCaro]

Ethiopia, Eritrea also have support of the rsf. Is any outside power, regardless which side they're supporting, actually trying to end the war? Or are they prolonging it by militarily supporting their favored side? Are they prolonging it for selfish interests?

[Alex Duval]

So I think there's no doubt they're prolonging it. So there is a coalition sort of on the other side that has been less active, but increasingly providing assistance to the Sudanese army, and that includes Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, prominently, also Eritrea, which earlier supported The RSF has come into that coalition.

[Martin DeCaro]

So what's like Saudi Arabia's interest, then? What do they want out of Sudan?

[Alex Duval]

Saudi Arabia has been in some very fierce rivalry with the UAE over the last few years for leadership in the Middle east as a whole. There are signs over the last couple of weeks that they may be patching up their differences because of the war with Iran, which threatens them both. But it's too early to say whether that's going to have any impact on. On Sudan. There's a sort of regional power struggle,

[Martin DeCaro]

and Sudan was the playground.

[Alex Duval]

Yemen was another playground for this and the Horn of Africa more broadly. And it was in recognition of this that the Trump administration that Secretary Rubio a year ago put together what he called the Quad, which is four countries, of which the US is one, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the uae, to say, we, first of all, as the four of us, we need to come to a common understanding. And then, if we successfully do that, we can then push the Sudanese belligerents, the RSF and saf, to an agreement. This was the analysis from very early on. The Biden administration had this analysis on its table. It didn't do it. It needed presidential time or it needed Secretary of State Antony Blinken to put in a few days work. They didn't do that. They simply said, this is not sufficiently important with all the other things that they were concerned with, like Ukraine, like Taiwan, later on Gaza. So they didn't prioritize it. Rubio, to his credit, did, but he hasn't managed to bridge that gap.

[US Government Official]

Yeah. So we're working hard at all. We know who the parties are that are involved these things. That's why they're part of the Quad along with other countries involved. And so I can just tell you, at the highest levels of our government, that case is being made and that pressure is being applied to the relevant parties. I don't want to get into calling anybody out in a press conference today, because what we want is a good outcome here. This needs to stop. I mean, they're clearly receiving assistance from outside that's allowing them. And clearly that assistance isn't just coming from some country that's paying for it. It's also coming from countries that are allowing their territory to be used to ship it and transport it, so that in order for this to be solved, that needs to be addressed. I don't know if you saw the RSF a few days ago agreed to humanitarian, humanitarian, ceasefire, but they don't intend to comply with it. And when you raise the issue of these atrocities, they always hide behind the argument that this is rogue elements. Well, it's not rogue elements. They're doing it systematically. And it's something that we have taken very seriously and are doing everything we can to bring the relevant countries to the table. To stop it, it needs to end.

[Alex Duval]

The key issue over the last 12 to 18 months was to get Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and Mohammed bin Zayed, the president of the U, to come to a common position. The nature of politics in that part of the world, and particularly between these two, is it needs to be handled with a great deal of tact and sensitivity because neither of them want to lose face. Each of them would need to acknowledge that sufficient respect has been afforded to them in making a compromise. This is a task that really only the White House can do. And unfortunately, President Trump is not known for his diplomatic finesse. So that when Mohammed bin Salman visited Washington in November of last year and raised Sudan, what President Trump really should have done was to say to the Saudi crown prince, I've heard you. I'm going to deal with this quietly. Then spoken to Mohammed bin Zayed and asked Mohammed bin Zayed to make a concession to him. President Trump, and the two could have made an agreement jointly to President Trump. Instead, what President Trump did was he announced that he was acting on behalf at the request of Mohammed bin Salman, which made it impossible for nbz, as he's known, to respond. So that was a missed opportunity.

[Martin DeCaro]

So if anyone looks at Sudan on a map, they can see it's surrounded by Eritrea, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Chad, Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are separated by the Red Sea. So they're not contiguous to Sudan. They're not accepting, as far as I know, that many Sudanese refugees. These other countries that are next to Sudan and are accepting, in some cases, more than a million refugees, it would seem they have an interest to bring peace to that country. I guess that's why this is so confounding and so terrible to prolong a war and the misery of people, because you're making money over it.

[Alex Duval]

There doesn't seem to be a workable formula for peace in Sudan now. So 15 years ago, at the time of the independence of South Sudan, it was possible to sort of thread the needle of getting all the neighbors, all the international players on the same side. That required a coordinated approach by the African Union, that's President Abu Mbeki, the United nations, the League of Arab States, and the United States. It was possible to do it it then much more difficult now because of this especially Saudi and Emirati rivalry. And the United States is really now the key player. The UN and the African Union are essentially missing in action. And I'm afraid what this means is that what is already the world's largest, most severe humanitarian crisis is set to get worse.

[Martin DeCaro]

Why is the UN missing in action?

[Alex Duval]

The UN has made a couple of decisions that seem to be remarkably indifferent. Really. It hasn't played a leading role. It has said that this is an African problem and it should be solved by the Africans knowing full well that the African countries surrounding Sudan are divided and that the key actors from outside are not African. So the Africans will not be able to solve it.

[Martin DeCaro]

It's affecting a large part of the glob.

[Marketing Representative]

Exactly.

[Martin DeCaro]

Africa is not a tiny place.

[Alex Duval]

Precisely this, I think, will be among the most signal failures of the current Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, when he steps down at the end of this year.

[UN Official]

Let me be clear. The United nations is not leaving Sudan. Our commitment is to the Sudanese people in support of their wishes for a peaceful and secure future. We stand with them at this terrible time. I have authorized the temporary location both inside and outside Sudan of some United nations personnel and of families. I call on all council members to exert maximum leverage with the parties to end the violence, restore order and return to the path of the democratic transition. We must all do everything within our power to put Sudan back from the

[Alex Duval]

edge of the abyss.

[Martin DeCaro]

On the next episode of History As It Happens. We're going to explore a historical force that has been behind so many of the world's conflicts over the past century. Or ethnic nationalism. What is it and why does it matter today? That is next, as we report History As It Happens. And make sure to follow my free newsletter on substack. Just go to subscribe substack and search for History As It Happens.

[Marketing Representative]

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