Podcast Summary

Podcast: History As It Happens
Host: Martin Di Caro
Episode: The Limits of Power
Guest: Michael Kimmage (Professor of History, Director of the Kennan Institute, author of Collisions: The War in Ukraine and the Origins of the New Global Instability)
Date: April 7, 2026

Overview: Episode Theme

This episode explores why today’s powerful nations—from the U.S. to Russia and Iran—are repeatedly unable to translate overwhelming military might into decisive, positive results. With recent and ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East as case studies, historian Michael Kimmage and host Martin Di Caro discuss the recurring failure of military power to achieve political objectives, the evolution of asymmetric warfare, global economic entanglements, and why leaders persist in believing quick victories are possible.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. From Decisive Wars to Endless Conflict

Historical Shift: Past wars like WWII ended with clear winners/losers and new orders; contemporary wars (Ukraine, recent Iran conflict) seem open-ended and indeterminate.
Kimmage: “What we seem to be living through now is a series, a growing series of just ambiguous, unended and almost unendable conflicts.” (08:49)
Host framing: The post-Cold War hope for a “rules-based” order has given way to disorder, with regional wars causing global instability. (01:28)

⏱️ Timestamps

[03:55] Martin relays G.H.W. Bush’s 1990 “new world order” speech
[06:02] Kimmage contrasts 1990s Balkan interventions (decisive) and Ukraine (stalemated, ambiguous)

2. The Limits of Power in Ukraine and Iran

Ukraine as Test Case: Despite overwhelming Russian might, Ukraine's resilience (backed by tech, alliances) has stymied any decisive outcome.
- “Ukraine has been an accelerator for a distinctively 21st-century kind of warfare in which smaller states can stymie powerful adversaries by employing cutting edge technology, some of it cheap and easy to mass produce.” —Martin (13:11)
Iran Example: The U.S. and Israel’s bombing campaigns have failed to force resolution or US-favored change.
Analogy with Past Wars: The inability of big powers to “win” echoes Vietnam, Afghanistan, Algeria, and more.

⏱️ Timestamps

[11:39] Are these military stalemates new? Kimmage: “No, it’s not entirely new... middle powers are stronger than they seem.”

3. Global Economic Interconnectedness and Sanctions

Wars now reverberate immediately worldwide due to trade, commodities, and economic entanglement.
Sanctions are porous—Russia maintains ties with China, India, others, softening the impact of Western isolation attempts.
- “Russia was able to establish a good commercial relationship or to keep a good commercial relationship with China…with much of the world...The global economy, maybe in its more amoral dimensions, is just not making choices that align with critiques of various wars.” —Kimmage (16:48)

⏱️ Timestamps

[16:48] Economics, sanctions, and global instability
[19:24] Historical resilience: states keep waging war despite economic pain

4. Domestic Politics vs. Military Adventurism

U.S.: Domestic political limits matter more than purely economic ones—gas prices, midterm elections, public weariness (21:52)
Russia: Autocratic repression and state dependence shield the regime from public economic frustration.
Tet Offensive analogy: External and internal shocks can force policy shifts.

5. Why Leaders Believe in “Knockout Blows”

From Napoleon to Putin to Trump, powerful leaders tend to overestimate the prospect of quick, decisive victory despite abundant historical evidence to the contrary.
- “Military action feels…like a lot cleaner, almost the redemptive power of force...it very much flatters the vanity of the powerful leader who's able to make that decision.”—Kimmage (24:25)
- “We do have this adulation for military figures. And I wonder if in a very superficial reading...figures like Putin and Trump feel like, well, I want to put myself into that narrative...” —Kimmage (27:50)

⏱️ Timestamps

[24:00] Why the persistence in believing in easy victories?
[28:18] Historical memory: we celebrate “great generals,” rarely study failed war managers.

6. Motivations: Hubris, Insecurity, Ideology, Escalation

America’s Wars: Political theorist Naim Anaitila on U.S. hubris—power enables ideological adventures, not insecurity per se.
- “Each new superpower claims through its own hubris that it'll make the world a better place for freedom and equality. But that power makes the hegemon and its ideals pawns to power's own laws...” —as paraphrased by Martin (30:25)
Israel/Russia: Feelings of insecurity, historical narratives, and policymakers blending offense and defense.
- Kimmage: “There’s a blending of offense and defense in Russian calculations... it’s very hard to know how sincere [Putin] is…” (31:07)

⏱️ Timestamps

[31:07] Insecurity, hubris, and interventionism
[36:14] Trump’s context: inherited hostility to Iran, logic of escalation

7. The “Logic of Escalation”

Once force is used (e.g., U.S. in Iran), leaders face the choice: escalate further or risk humiliation/backing down.
- “Once you dip your toe in and you create a new set of problems…now what do you do? You can either back out and lose face or apply even more pressure…” —Martin (36:14)

8. The Stakes of the Ukraine War & The World Order

Importance is not abstract: European security, American interests, and the risk of wider regional war hinge on Ukraine’s fate.
- “From my perspective, it’s a matter of basic national interest that the US should support Ukraine.” —Kimmage (43:55)
If Russia destroys Ukrainian statehood, it could cascade into conflict with NATO, destabilizing Europe and beyond.

⏱️ Timestamps

[39:56] Why Ukraine’s war matters for world order and U.S. interests

9. Closing Reflections: Power and Wisdom

Athena as Metaphor: Wisdom and war must be intertwined—today, they are dangerously separated.
- “It’s all the more important to harness that power to wisdom...It’s the job of us...to think about how we can bring them together.” —Kimmage (45:12)
Historical caution: Unchecked military action threatens democracy and global openness.

⏱️ Timestamps

[45:12] The task of combining wisdom and power (Athena metaphor)
[46:34] U.S. official: “This war like all wars must end. That’s what history advises, that’s what our democracy demands.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Modern War's Ambiguity:
“What we seem to be living through now is a series, a growing series of just ambiguous, unended and almost unendable conflicts.”
— Michael Kimmage (08:49)
On the hubris of power:
“Each new superpower claims through its own hubris that it'll make the world a better place for freedom and equality. But that power makes the hegemon and its ideals pawns to power's own laws. The strong do what they can, the weak suffer what they must.”
— Political theorist Naim Anaitila (quoted by Martin, 30:25)
On recurring leadership errors:
“If there are lots of examples of military leaders from Napoleon to Kaiser Wilhelm to Hitler...that believe that, quote, unquote, decisive military action is in their interest and then find differently when it takes place...it’s a temptation to use [force]...it flatters the vanity of the powerful leader...”
— Michael Kimmage (24:25)
On Ukraine’s global significance:
“From my perspective, it's a matter of basic national interest that the US should support Ukraine.”
— Michael Kimmage (43:55)
On wisdom and power:
“For the Chinas, for the Russias, for the United States...it’s all the more important to harness that power to wisdom...the connection of wisdom to strategy or of military power.”
— Michael Kimmage (45:12)

Structure of the Conversation (Selected Timestamps)

01:28–04:00 — The emergence of "disorder": regional wars post-Cold War
06:02–09:40 — Balkans wars, contrasts with Ukraine, the shifting meaning of “victory”
13:11–16:48 — The new ‘small power’ advantage & technology; limits of alliances/sanctions
19:24–24:00 — Economic endurance in warfare; domestic limits; the myth of “knockout blows”
30:25–37:36 — Motives for intervention: hubris, insecurity, ideology; Trump, escalation, Iran
39:56–43:55 — Why Ukraine is pivotal for Europe and U.S. security
45:12–46:34 — Athena metaphor, call for combining wisdom with power

Final Thoughts

This episode delivers a sobering, sweeping assessment of the “limits of power” faced by the world’s strongest actors today. Instead of triumph through force, the pattern is protracted, destabilizing conflict with escalating global costs. The discussion is rich with both historical analysis and contemporary urgency—leaving listeners with the imperative that true power must be yoked to wisdom, not hubris, if endless war is to be avoided.

For Further Engagement

Next on History As It Happens: Historian Antony Beevor on Rasputin, parallels between the Iran war and Suez, and Russia’s Middle East role.
Sign up for updates via Substack.

Podcast Summary

Overview: Episode Theme

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. From Decisive Wars to Endless Conflict

Historical Shift: Past wars like WWII ended with clear winners/losers and new orders; contemporary wars (Ukraine, recent Iran conflict) seem open-ended and indeterminate.
Kimmage: “What we seem to be living through now is a series, a growing series of just ambiguous, unended and almost unendable conflicts.” (08:49)
Host framing: The post-Cold War hope for a “rules-based” order has given way to disorder, with regional wars causing global instability. (01:28)

⏱️ Timestamps

[03:55] Martin relays G.H.W. Bush’s 1990 “new world order” speech
[06:02] Kimmage contrasts 1990s Balkan interventions (decisive) and Ukraine (stalemated, ambiguous)

2. The Limits of Power in Ukraine and Iran

Ukraine as Test Case: Despite overwhelming Russian might, Ukraine's resilience (backed by tech, alliances) has stymied any decisive outcome.
- “Ukraine has been an accelerator for a distinctively 21st-century kind of warfare in which smaller states can stymie powerful adversaries by employing cutting edge technology, some of it cheap and easy to mass produce.” —Martin (13:11)
Iran Example: The U.S. and Israel’s bombing campaigns have failed to force resolution or US-favored change.
Analogy with Past Wars: The inability of big powers to “win” echoes Vietnam, Afghanistan, Algeria, and more.

⏱️ Timestamps

[11:39] Are these military stalemates new? Kimmage: “No, it’s not entirely new... middle powers are stronger than they seem.”

3. Global Economic Interconnectedness and Sanctions

Wars now reverberate immediately worldwide due to trade, commodities, and economic entanglement.
Sanctions are porous—Russia maintains ties with China, India, others, softening the impact of Western isolation attempts.
- “Russia was able to establish a good commercial relationship or to keep a good commercial relationship with China…with much of the world...The global economy, maybe in its more amoral dimensions, is just not making choices that align with critiques of various wars.” —Kimmage (16:48)

⏱️ Timestamps

[16:48] Economics, sanctions, and global instability
[19:24] Historical resilience: states keep waging war despite economic pain

4. Domestic Politics vs. Military Adventurism

U.S.: Domestic political limits matter more than purely economic ones—gas prices, midterm elections, public weariness (21:52)
Russia: Autocratic repression and state dependence shield the regime from public economic frustration.
Tet Offensive analogy: External and internal shocks can force policy shifts.

5. Why Leaders Believe in “Knockout Blows”

From Napoleon to Putin to Trump, powerful leaders tend to overestimate the prospect of quick, decisive victory despite abundant historical evidence to the contrary.
- “Military action feels…like a lot cleaner, almost the redemptive power of force...it very much flatters the vanity of the powerful leader who's able to make that decision.”—Kimmage (24:25)
- “We do have this adulation for military figures. And I wonder if in a very superficial reading...figures like Putin and Trump feel like, well, I want to put myself into that narrative...” —Kimmage (27:50)

⏱️ Timestamps

[24:00] Why the persistence in believing in easy victories?
[28:18] Historical memory: we celebrate “great generals,” rarely study failed war managers.

6. Motivations: Hubris, Insecurity, Ideology, Escalation

America’s Wars: Political theorist Naim Anaitila on U.S. hubris—power enables ideological adventures, not insecurity per se.
- “Each new superpower claims through its own hubris that it'll make the world a better place for freedom and equality. But that power makes the hegemon and its ideals pawns to power's own laws...” —as paraphrased by Martin (30:25)
Israel/Russia: Feelings of insecurity, historical narratives, and policymakers blending offense and defense.
- Kimmage: “There’s a blending of offense and defense in Russian calculations... it’s very hard to know how sincere [Putin] is…” (31:07)

⏱️ Timestamps

[31:07] Insecurity, hubris, and interventionism
[36:14] Trump’s context: inherited hostility to Iran, logic of escalation

7. The “Logic of Escalation”

Once force is used (e.g., U.S. in Iran), leaders face the choice: escalate further or risk humiliation/backing down.
- “Once you dip your toe in and you create a new set of problems…now what do you do? You can either back out and lose face or apply even more pressure…” —Martin (36:14)

8. The Stakes of the Ukraine War & The World Order

Importance is not abstract: European security, American interests, and the risk of wider regional war hinge on Ukraine’s fate.
- “From my perspective, it’s a matter of basic national interest that the US should support Ukraine.” —Kimmage (43:55)
If Russia destroys Ukrainian statehood, it could cascade into conflict with NATO, destabilizing Europe and beyond.

⏱️ Timestamps

[39:56] Why Ukraine’s war matters for world order and U.S. interests

9. Closing Reflections: Power and Wisdom

Athena as Metaphor: Wisdom and war must be intertwined—today, they are dangerously separated.
- “It’s all the more important to harness that power to wisdom...It’s the job of us...to think about how we can bring them together.” —Kimmage (45:12)
Historical caution: Unchecked military action threatens democracy and global openness.

⏱️ Timestamps

[45:12] The task of combining wisdom and power (Athena metaphor)
[46:34] U.S. official: “This war like all wars must end. That’s what history advises, that’s what our democracy demands.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Modern War's Ambiguity:
“What we seem to be living through now is a series, a growing series of just ambiguous, unended and almost unendable conflicts.”
— Michael Kimmage (08:49)
On the hubris of power:
“Each new superpower claims through its own hubris that it'll make the world a better place for freedom and equality. But that power makes the hegemon and its ideals pawns to power's own laws. The strong do what they can, the weak suffer what they must.”
— Political theorist Naim Anaitila (quoted by Martin, 30:25)
On recurring leadership errors:
“If there are lots of examples of military leaders from Napoleon to Kaiser Wilhelm to Hitler...that believe that, quote, unquote, decisive military action is in their interest and then find differently when it takes place...it’s a temptation to use [force]...it flatters the vanity of the powerful leader...”
— Michael Kimmage (24:25)
On Ukraine’s global significance:
“From my perspective, it's a matter of basic national interest that the US should support Ukraine.”
— Michael Kimmage (43:55)
On wisdom and power:
“For the Chinas, for the Russias, for the United States...it’s all the more important to harness that power to wisdom...the connection of wisdom to strategy or of military power.”
— Michael Kimmage (45:12)

Structure of the Conversation (Selected Timestamps)

01:28–04:00 — The emergence of "disorder": regional wars post-Cold War
06:02–09:40 — Balkans wars, contrasts with Ukraine, the shifting meaning of “victory”
13:11–16:48 — The new ‘small power’ advantage & technology; limits of alliances/sanctions
19:24–24:00 — Economic endurance in warfare; domestic limits; the myth of “knockout blows”
30:25–37:36 — Motives for intervention: hubris, insecurity, ideology; Trump, escalation, Iran
39:56–43:55 — Why Ukraine is pivotal for Europe and U.S. security
45:12–46:34 — Athena metaphor, call for combining wisdom with power

Final Thoughts

For Further Engagement

Next on History As It Happens: Historian Antony Beevor on Rasputin, parallels between the Iran war and Suez, and Russia’s Middle East role.
Sign up for updates via Substack.