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- [00:01]
Host
This is a bonus episode of history as it happens. It's May 20, 2026. Since Richard Nixon's bold gamble in 1972, American presidents have made many important trips to China to open a dialogue over issues that remain unresolved to this day.
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Joe Biden
As I have pointed out on a number of occasions over the past three years, there can be no stable and enduring peace without the participation of of the People's Republic of China and its 750 million people. I reaffirmed our long standing One China policy to President Xiang and urged the pursuit of cross strait discussions recently resumed as the best path to a peaceful resolution.
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Donald Trump
We've had a fantastic relationship. We've gotten along. When there were difficulties, we worked it out. I would call you and you would call me and when ever we had a problem, people don't know whenever we had a problem, we worked that out very quickly and we're going to have a fantastic future together.
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Host
Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush and Clinton each visited China once. George W. Bush four times, Barack Obama three times, and Trump went there once in his first term. Carter and Biden never made the trip. So what, if anything, of substance was agreed to during Trump's two day tete a tete with Xi Jinping? Well, not much. But just sitting down with an adversary might be considered a success. Anatole Levin is the director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Anatol, even welcome back.
- [01:36]
Anatole Levin
Hi, glad to be back.
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Host
So these summits are always so interesting, the pomp and circumstance, the issues. Sometimes they're quite historic, as when Richard Nixon opened up china some fish 50 years ago. Before we get to that, briefly, you were in China recently for a couple of weeks. What were you up to there?
- [01:57]
Anatole Levin
Well, the Quincy Institute has a kind of partnership or track two process with an institute in Shanghai. We've been over there twice. They've been over to us once to discuss U. S. Chinese relations, Chinese and US views of the world, and of course this time naturally the Iran war. So that was one reason we went. When we planned the meeting, we didn't actually know that there was going to be a summit, but obviously it fell out very well. But we also used the trip to go to Beijing, met with people from different ministries, from think tanks, some journalists, and tried to get a sense of how the Chinese establishment is seeing things at the moment.
- [02:38]
Host
All right, so on that note, here is a Time magazine article about the just wrapped up summit. President Trump is back from Beijing after a state visit, the first by an American leader since he made the trip in 2017. In the intervening years, this most consequential bilateral relationship in the world had become dysfunctional, battered by a cascade of schisms, including a global pandemic, increasing ideological antagonism, accelerating geopolitical rivalry and surging trade tension. The US And China, the article states, seemed unable to have a dialogue and conflict seemed inevitable. Anatole, before this summit started, how would you describe the tenor, the Overall tenor of U.S. china relations, which is supposed to be the most important relationship in the world?
- [03:26]
Anatole Levin
Well, they obviously went through a major crisis with Trump's introduction of punitive tariffs against China, but of course he backed down from that when the Chinese retaliated by cutting off supplies of rare earths and other things. We got the sen, which I think was borne out by the summit. While the Chinese do not expect or hope for any major breakthroughs with Trump or deals, they did want to try to calm down the relationship, to put it back on an even keel to restore good relations with Trump personally, which in the case of Trump is very important. I think they got that Trump did not get whatever major success he was looking for. But on the other hand, you know, it must be said, you know, from a US Point of view, the last thing that the US now needs with everything else that's going on is a major crisis with China.
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Host
Yeah, well, just having a summit can be seen as a success in and of itself. But what was the purpose of this summit?
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Anatole Levin
Well, I think just that, I mean, in a way to have a summit to show that relations were, you know, more or less back on an even keel to reduce this sense which was there. In the Time article, you mentioned that the two countries were heading for inevitable conflict. Because, you know, there's been more and more talk of this in Washington, to a lesser extent in China. I mean, people are talking about this almost, I wouldn't say in a light hearted way, but as if, you know, this is inevitable, it can't be avoided. But of course, a US China conflict would be a catastrophe.
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Host
They mean hot war, right? When they mean conflict, a hot war,
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Anatole Levin
even if it didn't escalate to nuclear war, which it very well might, it would bring the world economy down in ruins. And from a US Point of view, the likelihood is that China would win in the conventional war. But then, of course, we don't know what would happen after that. This is important. And I mean, there were a couple of important statements that came out of it. One was Xi Jinping's statement saying that there is no thucydides trap. We shouldn't be sort of trapped by a belief that this is some inexorable law that doesn't have to be a conflict with between us. And then there was Trump's statement, which you know, is of course official US Policy, but it was still worth saying again that Taiwan should not declare independence because that would lead to war. And he doesn't want to tap.
- [05:55]
Host
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