Visions of Mushroom Clouds

Summary

History As It Happens: Episode Summary – "Visions of Mushroom Clouds"

Released on June 27, 2025

Introduction

In the episode titled "Visions of Mushroom Clouds," host Martin Di Caro delves deep into the enduring and escalating challenges of nuclear proliferation. Through a blend of historical analysis and contemporary insights, Di Caro explores how past events shape today's geopolitical landscape, particularly concerning nuclear weapons. The episode features an in-depth interview with Joe Cirincione, a renowned expert on nuclear history and arms control, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current nuclear threats and the fragile state of global non-proliferation efforts.

Historical Context of Nuclear Threats

The episode opens with a nostalgic reference to Cold War-era civil defense measures, highlighting the pervasive fear of nuclear annihilation. Di Caro reminisces about the iconic "Duck and Cover" film featuring Bert the Turtle, illustrating societal responses to the atomic threat during the 1950s and 60s.

Bert the Turtle: "If an atom bomb blows up near you, hit the deck and cover." [02:37]

Diano traces the origins of the nuclear arms race, citing pivotal moments such as the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings, the Berlin Crisis of 1958, and the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. These events underscored the existential threat posed by nuclear weapons and the urgent need for crisis management and arms control.

The Fragile Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

A significant portion of the discussion centers around the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1968, which aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and promote disarmament. Di Caro emphasizes the treaty's importance yet laments its weakening state in contemporary geopolitics.

Martin Di Caro: "It would seem to be in everyone's interest that no additional countries acquire nuclear weapons... Yet in our world today, several nation states believe they may need the bomb to survive, jeopardizing what's left of the non-proliferation regime." [01:23]

Case Studies: Iran, North Korea, and Libya

The episode meticulously examines the nuclear ambitions and diplomatic histories of Iran, North Korea, and Libya, illustrating the complexities and failures of international efforts to curtail nuclear proliferation.

1. North Korea:

   • Clinton Administration Efforts: Di Caro recounts the 1994 Agreed Framework between the U.S. and North Korea, aimed at freezing and dismantling Pyongyang's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and economic aid.

     Bill Clinton: "North Korea will freeze and then dismantle its nuclear program... The entire world will be safer." [07:11]

   • Bush and Subsequent Administrations: The narrative shifts to the Bush administration's hardline stance, labeling North Korea as part of an "axis of evil," which ultimately led to the breakdown of the Agreed Framework and renewed nuclear tests by North Korea.

     Joe Cirincione: "Last night, the government of North Korea proclaimed to the world that it had conducted a nuclear test." [07:57]

     George W. Bush: "Iran is breaking rules that all nations must follow..." [17:22]

2. Iran:

   • Historical Negotiations: Cirincione provides a detailed account of Iran's nuclear journey, highlighting the oscillating trust between Iran and the U.S., the impact of regional dynamics, and the eventual collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under subsequent administrations.

     Joe Cirincione: "The JCPOA... shrinks the program... It limits the kinds of centrifuges... It takes the 10,000 kg of uranium gas they have manufactured... left with a mere 300 kg of low enriched uranium." [18:21]

   • Trump's Bombing Raid: The episode discusses the 2025 U.S. airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities, analyzing its effectiveness and repercussions on diplomatic efforts.

     Joe Cirincione: "This humiliates Trump and he's fuming about this... but he may be pushed to do more bombing raids." [23:09]

3. Libya:

   • Gaddafi's Dismantling: Di Caro contrasts Libya's experience under Muammar Gaddafi, who voluntarily gave up his nuclear ambitions, with the obstinate stances of Iran and North Korea.

     Joe Cirincione: "Under dictator Muammar Gaddafi... his regime has been swept into the dustbin of history. A warning to other despotic regimes, such as Iran today." [09:09]

Interview with Joe Cirincione: Current Nuclear Dynamics

Joe Cirincione, a seasoned arms control specialist, provides expert analysis throughout the episode. His insights shed light on the current nuclear landscape, emphasizing the deterioration of the NPT and the resurgence of nuclear threats.

• NPT's Decline:

  Joe Cirincione: "It's mostly dead. It's hanging by a thread." [36:52]

• Deterrence and Mutual Assurance:

  Cirincione discusses the flawed logic of mutual assured destruction, particularly how nations perceive nuclear weapons as both a deterrent and a provocation.

  Joe Cirincione: "Deterrence is the art of producing in the mind of the enemy the fear to attack." [10:53]

• Proliferation Risks:

  The conversation touches on the potential for nuclear proliferation among U.S. allies, such as South Korea, Japan, and Poland, driven by perceived threats and the erosion of U.S. nuclear guarantees.

  Joe Cirincione: "Countries like Poland... Japan, South Korea... are considering, maybe we have to have our own nuclear umbrella." [35:36]

• Military vs. Diplomatic Solutions:

  Cirincione argues against military interventions, advocating for renewed diplomatic efforts to address nuclear ambitions.

  Joe Cirincione: "There is no military solution. You have to negotiate this." [12:03]

• Future of Nuclear Policy:

  He warns of a return to a Cold War-like nuclear arms race and underscores the necessity for the U.S. to re-engage in effective diplomacy.

  Joe Cirincione: "We're re-entering this world of nuclear anarchy where many countries will be reexamining their nuclear options." [48:29]

Contemporary Implications and Conclusion

Di Caro and Cirincione conclude by reflecting on the precarious state of global nuclear politics. The episode underscores the urgency of revitalizing the NPT, revamping diplomatic strategies, and addressing the proliferation mindset that threatens global security.

Joe Cirincione: "It's an extremely dangerous world and it really is up to the United States to reverse it. We have to go back to diplomacy and give up the idea of imposing our will on other countries through military force." [49:12]

The episode ends with a forward-looking statement about the repercussions of recent airstrikes on Iran and the critical questions they raise regarding international law, self-defense, and the integrity of the UN Charter.

Martin Di Caro: "Were they legal? What is the definition of self-defense? And what is the status of the UN Charter if the most powerful countries in the world don't follow it?" [49:53]

Notable Quotes

• John F. Kennedy: "The purpose of these bases can be none other than to provide a nuclear strike capability against the Western Hemisphere." [00:37]

• Benjamin Netanyahu: "Iran is so dangerous, weeks away from having the fissile material for an entire arsenal of nuclear bombs." [01:14]

• Bill Clinton: "North Korea will freeze and then dismantle its nuclear program. South Korea and our other allies will be better protected." [07:11]

• Bert the Turtle: "Duck and cover. That's the first thing to do." [02:49]

• Joe Cirincione: "Deterrence is the art of producing in the mind of the enemy the fear to attack." [10:53]

Closing Remarks

"Visions of Mushroom Clouds" offers a sobering examination of the persistent nuclear threats facing the world today. Through historical context and expert analysis, Martin Di Caro and Joe Cirincione highlight the urgent need for robust diplomatic initiatives to prevent nuclear catastrophe and restore faith in global non-proliferation mechanisms.

Join us next time on "History As It Happens" as we explore the legal ramifications of the recent Israeli and U.S. airstrikes on Iran and what it means for international law and global security.

Stay Connected

For more insightful discussions and historical analyses, subscribe to Martin Di Caro's newsletter available every Friday on Substack by searching for History As It Happens.

Transcript

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[Martin DeCaro]

History as it happens. June 27, 2020 Five visions of mushroom clouds.

[Bert the Turtle]

We must be ready for a new danger, the atomic bomb.

[John F. Kennedy]

The purpose of these bases can be none other than to provide a nuclear strike capability against the Western Hemisphere.

[Bill Clinton]

North Korea will freeze and then dismantle its nuclear program. South Korea and our other allies will be better protected.

[Joe Cirincione]

We've tried bilateral negotiations with North Korea, my predecessor and in good FAI effort entered into a framework agreement. The United States honored its side of the agreement, North Korea didn't. Libya possesses a huge and varied arsenal, including chemical agents and raw nuclear material. Libya's prime minister says Muammar Qaddafi has been killed.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

Iran is so dangerous, weeks away from having the fissile material for an entire arsenal of nuclear bombs.

[Martin DeCaro]

It would seem to be in everyone's interest that no additional countries acquire nuclear weapons. And the non. The Non Proliferation Treaty obligates the countries that do have nukes to reduce their stockpiles. Yet in our world today, several nation states believe they may need the bomb to survive, jeopardizing what's left of the non proliferation regime and potentially returning us to a dangerous time. That's next as we report history as it happens. I'm Martin DeCaro.

[Joe Cirincione]

Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. The same machines, the centrifuges that can enrich uranium to low levels percent 4% for fuel can also enrich it to high levels for bombs, 90% purity. And so the question comes down to do you trust Iran? Well, clearly we don't. We believe, correctly, that Iran's civilian program is a cover to develop nuclear capabilities.

[Martin DeCaro]

If you were growing up during the coldest years of the Cold War, you would have seen a civil defense film like this one.

[Joe Cirincione]

Dum dum beetle dum dummy. There was a turtle by the name.

[Martin DeCaro]

Of Bert, starring Bert the turtle who dispensed some valuable advice. If an atom bomb blows up near you, hit the deck and cover.

[John F. Kennedy]

Duck and cover. He did what we all must learn to do. You and you and you and you.

[Martin DeCaro]

Now, from our vantage today, this seems so silly. Ducking and covering Under a desk can't protect you from the kinds of weapons that, say, Russia has pointed at American cities.

[Bert the Turtle]

Be sure and remember what Bert the Turtle just did, friends, because every one of us must remember to do the same thing. That's what this film is all about. Duck and cover. This is an official civil defense film produced.

[Martin DeCaro]

But if you were around back then, you didn't have to be paranoid to envision mushroom clouds. You would have remembered Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The arms race between the US and Soviet Union was out of control. And the Berlin crisis of 1958, followed by the Cuban Missile Crisis, brought the superpowers to the brink.

[Bert the Turtle]

The Cuban waterfront bristled with guns as the United States moved against Russian missile bases on that island fortress.

[Martin DeCaro]

In his new book, the World of the Cold War, historian Vladislav Zubokh writes, the lessons of Berlin and especially the Cuban crisis had a significant impact on Western and Soviet policymakers. For three decades, until the very end of the Cold War, crisis management required quick and safe communication channels. The first secure phone connection between the Kremlin and the White House. Unbridled nuclear brinkmanship stopped. Khrushchev stopped pressing for a free city in Berlin in a German peace treaty. After intense negotiations in 1963, the United States, Soviet Union and UK reached a nuclear test ban on the ground, underwater, in the atmosphere or in space. This was the first tangible act to limit the arms ra and created a precedent for other talks and agreements. Vladislav Zubak, writing in his new book, the World of the Cold War.

[John F. Kennedy]

So let us not be blind to our differences, but let us also direct attention to our common interests and the means by which those differences can be resolved. And if we cannot end now our differences, at least we can help make the world safe for diversity. For in the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children's future. And we are all mortal.

[Martin DeCaro]

Well, today, almost all the landmark arms control treaties have either expired or been abrogated. A new nuclear arms race is underway among the existing nuclear powers as the world confronts the difficulty of preventing new states from joining the nuclear club like Iran.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

Ladies and gentlemen, I've been speaking about the need to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons for over 15 years.

[Martin DeCaro]

When it comes to Iran's nuclear ambitions, history may serve as a warning. About 20 years ago, believing it must build nukes for its security, North Korea exited the Non Proliferation Treaty and tested a bomb in 2006. And that was about 20 years after Pyongyang had joined the non proliferation regime. During the 1990s, the Clinton administration grappled with how to block North Korea's road to a bomb. Here is the President, April 1994, at a town hall meeting in Charlotte, North Carolina, taking some tough questions about his diplomatic efforts.

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Mr. President, several months ago, November of last year, you said we will not allow North Korea to have to build a nuclear weapon. We now believe that there are at least two nuclear weapons and possibly a third. When you say we will not allow them to build it, what are you willing to do to stop them and what are you willing to do now that we believe they have them?

[Bill Clinton]

Well, the intelligence community believes now something they did not believe at that time, which is that they may have a rudimentary nuclear weapon which may or may not even be deliverable, but which may be a bomb in a literal sense. That may or may not have happened. You've seen that in the press. We have to see what our options are. There are. One of the things we can do is to continue to put economic pressure on North Korea. But if we do it through the United nations, we have to carry along with us the South Koreans. After all, the South Koreans have the biggest stake. We have the next biggest stake because we have 40,000 soldiers in Korea.

[Martin DeCaro]

Several months later, October 1994, a breakthrough.

[Bill Clinton]

This is a good deal for the United States. North Korea will freeze and then dismantle its nuclear program. South Korea and our other allies will be better protected. The entire world will be safer as we slow the spread of nuclear weapons.

[Martin DeCaro]

The United States and North Korea signed the Agreed Framework. The communist dictatorship, which had already produced one or two bombs, according to the CIA, committed to freezing its illicit plutonium weapons project and it would stop building nuclear reactors. Washington promised sanctions, relief and economic aid, plus two light water reactors for civilian energy production. The agreement seemed to save the non proliferation regime established by the NPT in 1968. It didn't last.

[Joe Cirincione]

Last night, the government of North Korea proclaimed to the world that it had conducted a nuclear test. We're working to confirm North Korea's claim.

[Martin DeCaro]

Bill Clinton was succeeded by George W. Bush in 2001, whose hawkish advisors argued North Korea was lying about its compliance with that 1994 agreement. And North Korea's leaders reacted to what they viewed as US Belligerence. Remember, Bush said the country was part of an axis of evil.

[Joe Cirincione]

North Korea is a regime arming with missiles and weapons of mass destruction while starving its citizens.

[Martin DeCaro]

Diplomacy would continue in the form of the Six Party Talks chaired by China. And in September 2005, its members agreed to a joint declaration in which North Korea committed to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons. And the US Announced it had no intention of attacking North Korea. The following year, Pyongyang carried out its first nuclear test. But diplomacy would continue even after this. Under Bush, Obama and Trump, none of it resulted in North Korea agreeing to give up its nukes. Now North Korea's reckless pursuit of nuclear.

[Joe Cirincione]

Weapons and ballistic missiles threatens the entire.

[Martin DeCaro]

World with unthinkable loss of human life. So North Korea did the opposite of Libya. Under dictator Muammar Gaddafi, he gave up his nuclear ambitions. His regime has since been swept into the dustbin of history. A warning to other despotic regimes, it has been said, such as Iran's today. Another supposed lesson looms over all of this. Ukraine, after the end of the Cold War, also agreed to cede the Soviet missiles left on its territory. But Ukraine really didn't have much choice there, and that that was a different time. Now, the clerical regime in Tehran does not have any nuclear weapons, but there's evidence it's been moving in that direction. The International Atomic Energy agency reported on June 12, the same day Israel started the war, that Iran was not cooperating. The agency could not provide assurances that Iran's nuclear program was for peaceful purposes. And that brings us to another problem. Who to believe? Benjamin Netanyahu's been saying Iran is close to building a bomb for the past 30 years. Comedian Jon Stewart had some fun with this recently.

[Joe Cirincione]

Iran is months away from having a nuclear bomb, says Netanyahu in 2012.

[Martin DeCaro]

But just because Netanyahu or Trump can't be trusted, that doesn't mean Iran can be trusted. And this nuclear problem is bigger than Iran, and it involves not only repressive authoritarian regimes. Our guest in this episode says some US Allies are thinking about going nuclear to guarantee their own security. If your rival has him, you need to get them, too. That is the logic of mutually assured destruction.

[Joe Cirincione]

Deterrence is the art of producing in.

[Martin DeCaro]

The mind of the enemy the fear to attack. Joe Cirincione is an expert on the history of the nuclear age and a career arms control specialist. He's one of the few Americans to have visited Iran's Isfahan facility, which was one of the three bombed by the US Last week. He also writes the Strategy and History newsletter on Substack. Our conversation next.

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[Martin DeCaro]

Joe Cirincione, welcome back, my friend.

[Joe Cirincione]

My pleasure. Thanks for having me back on our.

[Martin DeCaro]

Favorite subject to discuss the existential threat to human civilization under.

[Joe Cirincione]

You know, you know, when I come on a show like this, people say, joe, it's good to see you. And I go, really? Usually when I come on, it's bad news.

[Martin DeCaro]

Although in this case, the country in question doesn't have any nuclear weapons yet. I guess that is the issue. So, you know, I was thinking about something and the reason I wanted to have you on, among other issues we'll tackle here. But number one, something that I'm not capable of answering. It deals with Iran's capability and the potential rush to a nuclear bomb. And I will point out that you're one of the only Americans to have visited the Isfahan uranium conversion site in Iran. You were there 20 years ago. And my question is, if Iran were to develop some crude nuclear device, which is an emerging consensus right now after the US bombing raid, that that might be the best thing they can come up with in a short time window. Don't these weapons have to be tested? I mean, how sophisticated is something like this? Is it just you create it and then you can launch it on a missile immediately? Because you have to have a delivery system to help us understand what this whole idea of a Iranian threat is.

[Joe Cirincione]

Sure. The problem that we face with Iran is that Iran says it has a peaceful nuclear program, meaning it has a reactor at Bushir. For a while, it was the only nuclear reactor in the Middle East. It started under the Shah. The West Germans built that reactor. Ayatollah comes into power, he stops it. But then Iran is attacked by Iraq and they wage a bloody eight year war and no one comes to their aid. Iraq uses chemical weapons against them. The Reagan administration actually vetoed the UN resolution condemning the use of chemical weapons by Iraq. So Iran recalculates. Maybe we do need a nuclear program which the Shah had begun. So the Ayatollah restarts in secret the nuclear program and other non conventional programs, chemical, biological weapons. The war drags on. None of these weapons come to fruition. The war ends. After eight bloody years. Iran war loses a million people. The program still continues. Part of that is to develop the open program. The Bushir reactor. The Russians come in and pick it up, and they start helping them build it. And Iran says, as part of this program, we need to enrich uranium for fuel. And here's the core of the problem. The same machines, the centrifuges that can enrich uranium to low levels, 3%, 4% for fuel, can also enrich it to high levels for bombs, 90% purity. And so the question comes down to do you trust Iran? Well, clearly we don't. We believe, correctly, that Iran's civilian program is a cover to develop nuclear capabilities. Now, after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran decides, after they discover American troops on their borders, maybe we should negotiate this.

[Martin DeCaro]

The potential for an Iraqi nuclear program at that point is now completely gone. Although it had been dismantled in 1991, we didn't quite believe that story, although it was true. But now Iraq can't. There's no more Saddam hussein after the 2003 invasion. So Iraq can no longer threaten Iran with a nuke. Go ahead.

[Joe Cirincione]

Right, right. And you know, Iran is always is in America's crosshairs. It's in Israel's crosshairs. So they say, okay, let's settle this. They table a proposal to the United States, via the Swiss ambassador, to negotiate their very small program. At that point, they had about. This is about 164 centrifug in 2003.

[Martin DeCaro]

How many do they have now before the bombing anyway?

[Joe Cirincione]

Somewhere between 20 and 30,000.

[Martin DeCaro]

Wow.

[Joe Cirincione]

Yeah. Right. So it's grown. Right. They decide that they want to negotiate not just the nuclear program, but the whole thing. They're looking for the grand bargain, as they say, their relationship with Israel, their relationship with Saudi Arabia, their support for allied groups, Hezbollah, Hamas, plo, the whole thing in the region. We're not interested. John Bolton gets that proposal. He tears it up. Vice President Cheney says, we don't negotiate with evil, we defeat it.

[George W. Bush]

As we continue to work for peace, we must not and will not ignore the darkening shadows of the situations in Gaza, in Lebanon, in Syria, and in Iran and the forces there that are working to derail the hopes of the world.

[Joe Cirincione]

We're just going to roll through the Middle east in serial regime change, overthrow one tyrant after another, including the Ayatollah. Well, we know how that worked out, right? Doesn't work out. But still, Iran starts to negotiate with the Europeans unsettled. The program starts to grow incrementally. But it gets up to 20,000 centrifuges by 2014. When Barack Obama comes in and he says, okay, let's settle this. We don't think there's a good military option here. And they considered all the military options, including the use of these big bunker busters.

[Martin DeCaro]

That's right. In 09, Obama revealed to the world that the Fordo site was buried.

[Joe Cirincione]

Exactly.

[George W. Bush]

Iran is breaking rules that all nations must follow, endangering the global non proliferation regime, denying its own people access to the opportunity they deserve and threatening the stability and security of the region and the world.

[Martin DeCaro]

It was buried under a mountain. No one knew about that, but go ahead.

[Joe Cirincione]

So Iran, pursuing the idea that this is a peaceful civilian program, says, well, we have a right to this. Which by the way, under international law they do.

[Martin DeCaro]

They are a signatory of the npt.

[Joe Cirincione]

Which allows for the peaceful use of nuclear technology. So they do have a right to it. The question is, do you trust them? And as I say, we don't. They secretly build a plant in Natanz. We discover that they secretly build the plant in Fordeau. We discover that they have a history of cheating. We have a history of discovering they're cheating. Sanctions are imposed, et cetera, et cetera. Finally, the sanctions aren't working. There is no good military option. And Obama negotiates a deal. The jcpoa, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action takes about a year to do this.

[George W. Bush]

A comprehensive long term deal with Iran that will prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon. This deal demonstrates that American diplomacy can bring about real and meaningful change. Change that makes our country and the world safer and more secure.

[Joe Cirincione]

This basically solves the problem. I've been doing non proliferation for a very long time. This is the toughest, most enforceable non proliferation agreement I've ever seen. It shrinks the program. It takes it down from 20,000 centrifuges down to 5,000 centrifuges. It limits the kinds of centrifuges. They can only use their basic primitive centrifuges, what they call the IR1s, not the fancier, more advanced centrifuges they're developing. It takes the 10,000 kg of uranium gas that they have manufactured by that time and it says they have to export it all or blend it down to fuel. And so they're left with a mere 300 kg of low enriched uranium. You know what you can do with 300kg of low enriched uranium? Squat. You can't do anything with it. It's a face saver for them.

[Martin DeCaro]

Yeah, I'm glad you were able to answer that question because I have no idea.

[Joe Cirincione]

Right, so. So then they have to take out the core of the Iraq Reactor A, R, A K reactor that they were developing as a research reactor, but that can produce plutonium, the other fuel for a bomb. And they have to take the core out, drill it full of holes, fill it with concrete. That path is bl, the uranium path is blocked. The program is frozen for a good 25 years. They can do some things after 15 years, they can do some things after 20 years, but the program's basically blocked for 25 years. And we get an inspection regime that puts the entire thing in an iron box under lock and camera. We know exactly what they're doing. So this solves the problem until 2018, when Donald Trump comes in and he listens to the hard line hawks in America and Benjamin Netanyahu, who doesn't like this deal.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

I oppose this deal because I want to prevent war. And this deal will bring war. It will spark a nuclear arms race in the region and it would feed Iran's terrorism and aggression. That would make war, perhaps the most horrific war of all, far more likely.

[Joe Cirincione]

And they claim that they can get a bigger, better deal, a so called perfect deal where Iran would not be allowed to enrich a bit of uranium. They would not be able to have 1,000 or 5,000 centrifuges. They insist on zero. And it's the old scam. You posed the perfect deal as the goal in order to kill the good deal that you've already gotten. Trump tears it up, promises that his program of maximum pressure, sanctions, threats of military force will convince Iran to come back to the bargaining table and basically surrender. They don't utter failure, replaces it, complete failure. Biden comes in and he doesn't move the ball at all.

[Martin DeCaro]

He failed as well.

[Joe Cirincione]

Basically, he wastes his four years. Nothing happens. He doesn't rejoin the deal. He too blusters about, you know, getting a longer, stronger deal. Nothing happens. We've laid out for the people, for the leadership of Iran, what we're willing to accept in order to get back in the jcpoa. We're waiting for the response. When that recurred, when that will come, I'm not certain. But we are not going to wait forever. Enter Trump too. He now, to his credit, decides that he's the master deal maker, he can bargain with Iran and he starts an Iranian negotiation. And the Iranians are interested. They would like to have a deal. They're in trouble, right? Israel has decimated Hamas and Hezbollah. Assad, one of the key allies in the region, has fallen. This is not a good picture for Iran.

[Martin DeCaro]

They hold none of the cards right now.

[Joe Cirincione]

Right. Except for this massive nuclear program. Because when Trump leaves the deal after waiting a year to see if he'll go back in, Iran starts accelerating its program. So they now have tens of thousands of centrifuges, and not just the primitive ones that they had back during the JCPOA days, but they got advanced centrifuges, third generation, fourth generation. They got what they call the IR6, brand new, state of the art centrifuges that can enrich much faster than their original designs. They've accumulated thousands of kilograms of uranium, including, and this is key, 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, very close to bomb grade. But Trump says, okay, let's solve this deal. We can make a deal. And he starts negotiations. Benjamin Netanyahu sees this, and this is the last thing he wants. For 30 years, he's wanted to attack Iran. He wants to end not their nuclear program, but the regime itself. This is the only way he believes Israel will be safe. And so he tells Trump he's going to attack. Trump doesn't like it. But on June 13, Israel launches the attacks.

[Martin DeCaro]

Yeah, just to jump to the end here. Yeah. Trump joins in the bombing raid on, on Fullo and the other sites. And now, as the dust, no pun intended, is settling, Joe Cirincione. It's becoming somewhat apparent that the program was not obliterated. We don't really know the extent of the damage. That's going to take some time, if ever. Right. Because these facilities are underground and the regime in Tehran has no incentive to broadcast what happened. But I guess, you know, just to go back to my question, and you did a wonderful, you did a wonderful job of recapping the last 50 years of Iranian nukes. Right. If you develop some crude device, don't these things need to be tested? You just attach it to a missile and launch it. I mean, what's the science?

[Joe Cirincione]

But this is where we are, and this is the crux of the issue about whether there's a. We've had debates about whether military actions can effectively end another country's program. And presidents have debated military strikes against a number of countries. China in 1964, North Korea, Iran. Long debate. People like me have always taken the position there is no military solution. You have to negotiate this. And here's why you attack. Your military in no way is going to be able to totally eliminate the program. It will at best drive it underground and at worst, accelerate it. And so here's the situation. You have right now. They have this 400 kg of highly enriched uranium, the IAEA tells us Iran moved it from the underground sites. We do not know where it is. The IAEA doesn't know where it is. Iran has other underground sites that have not been attacked. We know this. They probably have centrifuges in that. We strongly believe that to be true. You could take enriched uranium, enriched to 60%, put it back in some of these modern centrifuges, and within a week, maybe five days, you could develop weapons grade uranium for the core of a bomb. About 25 kilograms is what you need. Within about two weeks or three weeks, you could develop enough for the core of 10 bombs. Now that's just the material. It's the long pole in the tent. But now you gotta fashion that into a metal that you can shape into the core of a bomb. And you have two choices. The National Intelligence estimates in Iran have consistently said it would take about a year for Iran to do that. Second part, to shape it into a core. What they call an implosion device. The kind we tested 80 years ago at the Trinity test at Los Alamos. Take that into the core of a bomb and put it on a missile warhead. Maybe it's a year, maybe it's five months. Some people think less. And that one you'd have to test. So absolutely they could not be confident in that design. It's very complicated. If you saw Oppenheimer, you understand the complications of this, right? So that one you'd have to test. But if you shaped it into a gun assembly device, it's not an implosion. You take one chunk of highly enriched uranium at one end of a tube, another chunk at the other, and you drive them together with explosions. That's the Hiroshima bomb. We never tested that bomb. You were so confident that this design works. You don't have to test it. Iran could do that. In fact, this is chilling. They may already have.

[Martin DeCaro]

But how would you deliver it? An aircraft? A missile?

[Joe Cirincione]

Not a missile, it's too big for missile. But an aircraft, a truck, cargo hull of a ship, you could smuggle it into a port, the US port, an allied port, or you could do both. You take the short route, you do some to bake that crude bomb while you keep working on the, the missile warhead. I would guess Iran is working on this. And certainly the hardline factions in Iran, remember we always talk about Iran does this, Iran does that as if it's a unitary actor. But there are factions in Iran and there's always been a faction in the Revolutionary Guard that wants to go to the bomb right now and you gotta believe that their case is strengthened because of these attacks. And they are saying, see, we have to get the only weapon that can protect Iran from Israel and the United States. We have to go now, at least secretly, at least hold it in our back pocket.

[Martin DeCaro]

And we don't know. I'm glad you say I can only guess because you're an expert, but some of this is guesswork. As far as trying to figure out what's going on in the mind of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah KHAMENEI, well, since 2003, he has not changed his mind. We know that Iran hasn't made that final decision to weaponize. They have enriched, but they haven't weaponized. But who knows? Well, I guess we'll find out at some point here if they decide to do that. Because if Iran does go nuclear, the only point of having that deterrent capability, as we Learned from watching Dr. Strangelove, is you have to let everyone know that you have this, otherwise you can't deter anyone.

[Joe Cirincione]

Is that the whole point of the Doomsday machine is lost if you keep it a secret. Why didn't you tell the world, eh?

[Martin DeCaro]

Now, here is the key question about all of this. This entire situation and the Ayatollah's miscalculations about remaining a threshold nuclear power rather than an actual nuclear power. The illusion of deterrence, Right. Obviously, the Ayatollah is miscalculated, but now there's the idea. Look at it two ways. The only card we can play is having a bomb. That's the only way to defend ourselves in this world. Right. When you look around at places like North Korea, impregnable now, right, with its nuclear stockpile. And we'll get to North Korea. And Gaddafi in Libya and his decision to give up his nuclear program. He never had a bomb, but he gave up the program to try to get to one. And now Gaddafi is dead and buried somewhere and his regime is swept into the dustbin of history. So in this world today, I mean, how do you gauge this idea of deterrence? I mean, you could look at it both ways, right? It can be a deterrent, but also it could provoke powerful countries like Israel and the United States to attack you.

[Joe Cirincione]

Yes, absolutely right. So that's the line you're walking. You know, I was deeply involved in the process to get diplomacy going between the US and Iran back in 2010, all the way through the JCPOA. So I met with lots of Iranian officials, including Gerard Zarif, the Foreign Minister of Iran at that time. And he was one of the moderates, reformists. He said, look, a bomb doesn't help us. Yes, we could go build a bomb and then we'd have it. And then what happens?

[Martin DeCaro]

Remember, we're going to use it, right? I mean, the whole idea is to never use them, but if you have it, you can scare your. I mean, this is the. We've talked about this a lot in the past, Joe. The whole idea of mad that you can't go there.

[Joe Cirincione]

Two parts to this. One is, are we going to use that to attack Israel? Now, my family's Jewish. I got a whole lot of my family members who believe absolutely they would use this bomb, they would annihilate Israel. They're crazy.

[Martin DeCaro]

Well, no, they're not suicidal. They're not suicidal.

[Joe Cirincione]

Not suicidal.

[Martin DeCaro]

My view here is that Iran wants the bomb if it makes that decision, to do it, for the same reason any state would today. Deterrence. Again, deterrence can be an illusion.

[Joe Cirincione]

So the argument is, and this is what they're thinking, what their top leaders are thinking, if we use this against Israel, Israel's got 80 to 100 nuclear bombs on ships, on submarines, on planes, on missiles. They would annihilate Iran. That would be it. Yeah, we might hit them, but then that's the end of us. That's deterrence. That's why they wouldn't do it, and that's why nobody has done this for 80 years. The second part they said is, look what happens in the region. We get a bomb. What do you think Saudi Arabia is going to do? We know Saudi Arabia said they would then move to a bomb. Maybe the UAE moves to a bomb as well. And there you go. And suddenly Iran, which can defeat any Arab rival right now, nobody's going to invade Iran. Suddenly they're faced with rivals that could destroy them. Their security situation is worse, not better. That's their thinking. That holds. Unless you feel that you're in an existential threat. Governments out there who are coming to kill you, as President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu have said. And then you have to throw deterrence to the wind and say, okay, we're gonna have to get this bomb before they kill us.

[John F. Kennedy]

Duck and cover.

[Bert the Turtle]

Be sure and remember what Bert the Turtle just did, friends, because every one of us must remember to do the same thing. That's what this film is all about. Duck and cover. Paul and Patty know this. No matter where they go or what they do, they always try to remember what to do if the atom bomb explodes right then it's a Bomb, duck and cover. Sundays, holidays, vacation time. We must be ready every day, all the time, to do the right thing if the atomic bomb explodes. Duck and cover. That's the first thing to do. Duck and cover. First you duck and then you cover. You duck and cover tight. Duck and cover. Under the table. It's a bomb. Duck and cover.

[John F. Kennedy]

He did what we all must learn to do.

[Joe Cirincione]

You and you and you and you.

[Martin DeCaro]

You grew up with duck and cover. You grew up in an age before I did when the idea of mushroom clouds, that just wasn't paranoia, that was potential. There was a potential for that. The Berlin crisis that Khrushchev instigated In the late 1950s, the Cuban missile crisis that Khrushchev instigated in 1962, unmistakable evidence.

[John F. Kennedy]

Has established the fact that a series of offensive missile sites is now in preparation.

[Martin DeCaro]

On that imprisoned island, there was a palpable fear of nuclear Armageddon. Matter of fact, it was the Cuban Missile Crisis that made everyone say, okay, we need to step back from the brink and start working on better communication and nuclear arms reduction, detente. But today, the whole mushroom cloud, the vision of the mushroom cloud is used by politicians all the time. I think Netanyahu has brought this up several times, hasn't he? The vision of the mushroom cloud.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

This is a bomb. This is a fuse. In the case of Iran's nuclear plans, to build a bomb, this bomb has to be filled with enough enriched uranium and Iran has to go through three stages. Iran's completed the first stage, now they're well into the second stage. And by next spring at most, by next summer, at current enrichment rates, they will have finished the medium enrichment and move on to the final stage. From there, it's only a few months, possibly a few weeks, before they get enough enriched uranium for the first bomb.

[Martin DeCaro]

Where do you use a nuclear weapon? I guess this sounds like a silly question, but just take India and Pakistan, right?

[Joe Cirincione]

Yes.

[Martin DeCaro]

They're right on top of each other. The missiles will get to the other side within minutes, Right? I was just reading about the Cold War. This is a long question, Joe. Hang in there. The missiles in Turkey, Khrushchev found out that, that the US missiles, and this is, you know, 1960s era Jupiter missiles that were based in Turkey would reach Moscow in less than 30 minutes. So think of India and Pakistan, think of Israel and Iran. Think of any states that are right on top of each other today. I mean, it's terrifying to think that a missile would hit within minutes. You might not even have a chance to retaliate So I guess in that context, maybe the presence of nuclear missiles limits wars from getting out of control. But who can be sure?

[Joe Cirincione]

That's exactly right. I mean, and this is the danger we face here. It's not just what happens to Iran and whether they are now deciding to accelerate their nuclear program. What does this tell other countries about having nuclear weapons? We're already faced with the potential for proliferation breakouts not from our adversaries, but from our allies in Europe. Faced with the idea that Trump is making an alliance with. With Putin and can no longer be counted on to defend NATO from Russian attack, and therefore it no longer will cover countries in Europe with their nuclear umbrella. Countries like Poland, like Germany, are considering, maybe we have to have our own nuclear umbrella. Maybe we have to build our own nuclear weapons. Japan, South Korea, same thing. Add to that the situation now where countries are seeing. No one's going to see, stop the United States or Israel from attacking you. We need weapons that can deter them. We got to go nuclear.

[Martin DeCaro]

So I don't want to overstate things, but my question to you is, is the NPT dead? Let me just preface this. I guess this wouldn't be a preface to a question. Jolly already asked it. But the last country to break the taboo was North Korea tested a weapon in 2006. That was their first test. And they had already dropped out of the NPT a few years earlier. Again, that was 2006, about 20 years ago. No one else has developed a bomb since. There are five nations allowed under the NPT to have their own nuclear programs. United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, France. I know this by heart. There are four countries that are not allowed to have nuclear weapons or they exist outside the npt. Israel, Pakistan, India, and North Korea. The country I just mentioned two seconds ago. Five countries host US Nuclear weapons on their soil. They're in NATO, Turkey, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands. Yes, and Belarus has Russian weapons on its soil, but that's it. So is the NPT dead or are we overstating this?

[Joe Cirincione]

Oh, no, you're not overstating at all. It's not. It's Mad Max says in the Princess Bride. It's not dead. It's mostly dead.

[Martin DeCaro]

It's not totally obliterated. It's somewhat obliterated.

[Bill Clinton]

It's.

[Joe Cirincione]

It's a little bit alive. It's hanging by a thread. And this is the other crisis we're facing. We're looking at the end of the arms control regime we built up over the last 50, 60 years. US has been leaving these agreements Starting with George W. Bush and the ABM Treaty. George W. Bush smashed the greed framework with North Korea that had contained North Korea's program. They tested two years later. Trump and then Putin pulled out of a whole bunch of treaties during his first term. And here we go. The actions of the last few years have convinced a lot of people that they got to reconsider their nuclear options. And so it's quite possible that we could see the NPT go in the next few years, not just from the actions of our adversaries, but from the.

[Martin DeCaro]

Actions of our friends in South Korea. Public opinion is in favor of developing an independent nuclear capability. US US Missiles were taken out of South Korea a long time ago as decades. Why did North Korea believe it needed nuclear weapons?

[Joe Cirincione]

Because it thought the United States was going to attack it and destroy it. And that wasn't a crazy idea. You know, I was on a podcast the other day with David Sanger from the New York Times, and he said he's been talking to Clinton administration officials who now are reconsidering their choice not to bomb North Korea in 1994 and wishing that they had because they were.

[Martin DeCaro]

They did diplomacy. Yeah, they did diplomacy, and North Korea went along with the diplomacy. There are a lot of agreements. I have a whole timeline here on the North Korean program. Go ahead. Yeah.

[Joe Cirincione]

Yes. Yes. It's funny. Memories are selective. And Sanger has sort of like forgotten that for 10 years, we contained the program effectively through diplomacy until Bush pulled out of it. So you have this growing nuclear problem, and faith in diplomatic solutions is clearly declining, particularly in the United States. Now maybe Trump will revisit it. I was actually encouraged. Encouraged by his truth Social posting on Iran after Iran's token missile response to the US Bombing raid. It was quite mild. And Trump responded with this typical insults, very weak response. But he said a couple of words in praise of Iran's caution and said something that no US President has ever said before. God bless Iran. I don't know what this guy's on, but he certainly. It goes farther than any president has ever done in US History. And so I thought that maybe we do have a path back to diplomacy. But then comes the revelations from US Intelligence officials that the bombing raids didn't work. And we don't know, like you say. But this is based on information from the Central Command. The people closest to the nuclear sites in Iran, the people monitoring the intelligence, have their own sources in there.

[Martin DeCaro]

Degraded, degraded, not obliterated.

[Joe Cirincione]

Absolutely. No question about it. Brilliantly executed strike. No country in the world could do what we did with our B2 bombers, definitely damaged Justfahan, as you mentioned, the site that I visited, the uranium conversion facility, a soft above ground target. I mean, I gotta believe they've left that in ruins. But they didn't hit a whole bunch of underground facilities that we know about. And plus there are underground facilities with we don't know about. We don't know the Lakotian. And even the ones they hit at Fordeau, it doesn't appear that the bombs went deep enough to strike the centrifuges. So this kind of humiliates Trump and he's fuming about this and that may push him in the opposite direction. So what looked like an opening after the strike for new rounds of diplomacy to get back to the talks that he had started, that he and Steve Witkoff had ongoing. Instead of going back to that, I'm sure he's being pushed by some of his advisors to go back and do more bombing raids, maybe even involving US Nuclear weapons, which are really the only weapons that could actually take out these underground sites.

[Martin DeCaro]

But let's return to the idea of deterrence in the North Korean context, because this matters today. Right? From the North Korean perspective, especially after what happened to Gaddafi.

[Joe Cirincione]

Yeah.

[Martin DeCaro]

I have an article here with a North Korean government spokesman saying we're not going to wind up paraphrasing, we're not going to wind up like Libya and Gaddafi. From their perspective, as you say, they're doing this for defensive reasons and it's also a way of consolidating their own power in an unstable country with an unpopular government. Right. And now from South Korea's perspective, I mentioned before, public opinion polls in that country show that they want their own nuclear capability. But that idea of we need this for defense could be seen as provocative by North Korea. Get what I'm saying?

[Joe Cirincione]

Absolutely.

[Martin DeCaro]

Spirals.

[Joe Cirincione]

And this is the contradiction of nuclear deterrence. You know, I've studied the history of the spread of nuclear weapons for many years. I wrote a book called Bomb Scare that summarizes why countries go nuclear, why do they? And the top two reasons are protection and prestige. Look at Britain getting the bomb for prestige, India for prestige. But most countries get it to prevent attacks. That's why we got it. We built the bomb because we thought Hitler was building the bomb and we had to have a response in kind. But other countries then see that as a threat. Soviet Union saw that as a threat to them. And when they get the bomb, we don't see that as them protecting themselves. We see that as a threat and that's the same with North Korea. They get it to be protect themselves. That's not how South Korea or Japan see it. And there's your dynamic.

[Martin DeCaro]

But where would North Korea fire these missiles on Seoul and make the southern part of the peninsula uninhabitable for generations? That's what confuses me a little bit here, you know.

[Joe Cirincione]

Well, absolutely. That's the insanity of nuclear policy. I mean, you get. No, really, you get these weapons because you think they're going to add to your power prestige.

[Martin DeCaro]

But you can't use them.

[Joe Cirincione]

But you can't use them.

[Martin DeCaro]

No, they're city killers. They're not to used used on military tactical, the Russian missiles. And Putin has threatened to use tactical nukes in Ukraine. Those are still immensely destructive if they were to be dropped on say Kiev.

[Joe Cirincione]

I mean, yeah, many times the power of the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

[Martin DeCaro]

One last thing about North Korea, it was in 1985 when it joined the NPT, the Non Proliferation Regime. In 1991, the United States withdrew its nuclear missiles from South Korea. Trust was being built up. 1992, north and south agree to denuclearize the entire peninsula. But then shortly after that, North Korea threatens to withdraw from the npt. It rejected the inspections by the iaea, those intrusive inspections that countries don't like. But eventually they come around and allow the inspections to start in 1994. Jimmy Carter visited North Korea that year to try to calm tensions. And then in that year, 1994, under Bill Clinton, a deal was struck to freeze Pyongyang's nuclear program. I am getting this timeline from the Council on Foreign Relations.

[Bill Clinton]

This agreement will help to achieve a long standing and vital American objective. An end to the threat of nuclear proliferation on the Korean peninsula. This agreement is good for the United States, good for our allies, and good for the safety of the entire world.

[Martin DeCaro]

In 1999, North Korea imposed a missile moratorium. So it looks like all this diplomacy is working.

[Joe Cirincione]

But why didn't it? We walked away from it.

[Martin DeCaro]

George W. Bush administration took a harder line because they didn't trust North Korea.

[Joe Cirincione]

George W. Bush listened to John Bolton, his then national Security Advisor, and they thought there was a military solution. Again, we don't negotiate with evil, we defeat it. They thought they could take it out one way or the other. Same dynamic with Iran, same dynamic with Libya and the Libya case. I mean, the Iranians talk about this all the time. The deal with Libya was you give up everything, your nuclear, your chemical, your missile programs and then we'll recognize you and be friends. Well, that works for about a year. He gives up everything. And then what do we do? There's a. You know, for understandable reasons, we start bombing his government and he ends up slaughtered in a sewer pipe in Libya. So the Iranians look at that. And when Trump comes to them and says, zero enrichment, you can't do anything. You have to give everything up. And then we'll lift sanctions and we'll give you diplomatic recognition, they go, look at Libya.

[George W. Bush]

Those who now argue in retrospect, we should have left Qaddafi in there seem to forget that he had already lost legitimacy and control of this country. And we could have, instead of what we have in Libya now, we could have had another Syria in Libya. Now, the problem with Libya was the fact that there was a failure on the part of the entire international community. And I think that the United States has some accountability for not moving swiftly enough and underestimating the need to rebuild government there quickly.

[Martin DeCaro]

And Gaddafi was actually operating in good faith there. Hard to say that about. He saw the Landscape in 2003. He saw how the idea that Saddam Hussein had a nuclear program contributed to the end of his regime, although, as I mentioned earlier, the Iraqis had actually dismantled it in 1991. A couple of other things are happening, too. In the North Korean context, President Bush called North Korea part of an axis of evil, but he also pointed to potential violations of that 1994 deal. North Korea did a rocket test and transferred missiles to Iran. Pyongyang did exit the NPT in October 2002 and admitted it was running a secret uranium enrichment program for nuclear weapons. So both sides here, it's true, both sides weren't operating in good faith, I guess. I don't know.

[Joe Cirincione]

I mean, who could trust making a deal with the United States now, given what we've done over the last 10 years, not to mention this, this century, you cannot trust the United States. So you have to have a deal that offers you some protections beyond the good word of the United States of.

[Martin DeCaro]

America, because every four years have a new president changes his mind. Last question here, Joe. Have human beings lost their fear of nuclear weapons?

[Joe Cirincione]

Some have. Too many have. There's a lot of loose nuke talk. And I mean, I don't mean that like the Soviet Union, we don't know where it is. There's a lot of loose talk about using nuclear weapons. And this is what worries me about Trump. You see people in the MAGA world sitting members of Congress calling for nuking Iran. You see some of his big donors calling for nuke as if this is a sign of US power. As if it's not going to be kicking over a nuclear hornet's nest. Yes, some people have definitely lost their fear of nuclear weapons. They think about it the way we were thinking about in 1945, that it was just a bigger bomb of the kinds we were using instead of being a fundamental change that could change strategic calculus around the globe.

[Martin DeCaro]

And when you see talk of other countries like Saudi Arabia or you even said Poland earlier thinking that this is the key to their security in a world that is coming apart, well it just simply. It returns us to the 50s and 60s when there were no agreements at all. And an idea that we've discussed on past episodes that yeah, let's go more and more and more stockpiles up to heavens of nuclear weapons. And until the Cuban Missile crisis scared the bejesus out of the world and forced to change.

[Joe Cirincione]

That's exactly right. When John F. Kennedy warned in his debates that if we didn't do something that we could be facing a world with 15, 20, 25 new nuclear nations. He had read the intelligence first NIE of Nuclear Non Proliferation 1958 and 59 said there were about 16 countries that could develop nuclear weapons. Twelve of them were our allies. And this is what you're worried about. We're re entering this world of nuclear anarchy where many countries will be reexamining their nuclear options. It's an extremely dangerous world and it really is up to the United States to reverse it. We have to go back to diplomacy and give up the idea of imposing our will on other countries through military force. It just doesn't work.

[John F. Kennedy]

Now on the question of disarmament, particularly nuclear disarmament, I must say that I feel that another effort should be made by a new administration in January of 1961 to renew negotiations with the Soviet Union and see whether it's possible to come to some conclusion which we will lessen the chances of contamination of the atmosphere and also lessen the chances that other powers will begin to possess a nuclear capacity. There are indications because of new inventions that 10, 15 or 20 nations will have a nuclear capacity, including Red China by the end of the presidential office in 1964.

[Martin DeCaro]

On the next episode of history as it happened, the Israeli and US airstrikes on Iran raise important questions about international law. Were they legal? What is the definition of self defense? And what is the status of the UN Charter if the most powerful countries in the world don't follow it? Those questions and more next as we report history as it happens. New episodes every Tuesday and Friday. My newsletter every Friday. Go to Substack and search for history as it happens.