Whose Strait of Hormuz? (Bonus)

Summary

History As It Happens: “Whose Strait of Hormuz?” (Bonus)

Host: Martin Di Caro
Guest: Yaroslav Trofimov, Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent, Wall Street Journal
Date: May 13, 2026
Episode Theme:
A deep dive into the uncertain status of the Strait of Hormuz two and a half months since President Trump ordered U.S. airstrikes on Iran. The conversation explores the on-the-ground reality in the UAE, the strategic and economic chaos at the Strait, and the complicated rules and circumventions shaping global oil flow.

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Main Episode Overview

This episode examines the regional aftermath of recent U.S.-Iran hostilities, focusing on the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its global implications. Host Martin Di Caro speaks with journalist Yaroslav Trofimov, who reports live from Dubai on the practical and psychological effects of the crisis. The discussion reveals how war, rumor, and maritime law are shaping the stand-off, echoing how historical forces always pulse beneath today’s headlines.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The State of the Strait of Hormuz and Global Oil

• Strait’s Ongoing Closure:

  • The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, neither at war nor fully at peace ([00:01]).
  • President Trump’s remarks set the tone for frustrated allies and economic instability ([00:21]).

• Quotes:

  • President Trump (audio clip):

    “So, to those countries that can’t get fuel... buy oil from the United States of America. We have plenty... build up some delayed courage. Should have done it before, should have done it with us as we asked. Go to the strait and just take it, protect it, use it for yourselves.” ([00:21])

    • Emphasizes U.S. oil export ambitions and dissatisfaction with international partners.

2. American and Iranian Perspectives

• U.S. Position:

  • Trump claims the “hard part is done” and expects the strait to eventually reopen as Iran will need to resume oil exports to rebuild ([00:21]).

• Memorable Moment:

  • Trump (audio clip):

    "In any event, when this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally. They're going to want to be able to sell oil because that's all they have to try and rebuild." ([00:21]–[01:13])

    • Suggests presumed inevitability of oil flow resuming despite on-the-ground complexity.

3. Current Reality in Dubai & UAE

• Life in Dubai:
  • Yaroslav Trofimov:
    • Describes relative calm:

      “There was this 40 day period of full scale war when we had several times a day missile and drone alerts… That ended. There was a couple of attacks, basically two days by the Iranians. Since then… nothing hit anything in Dubai or Abu Dhabi.” ([02:47])

    • The port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman still exports UAE oil since it is outside the Persian Gulf.
    • Everyday life has resumed, though there's clear impact for tourism and hospitality sectors:

      “Life is more or less normal for those who live in the UAE, unless you work in the hospitality sector where obviously there have been layoffs and many of the hotels have had to close.” ([02:47])

4. Media Exaggeration vs. Local Reality

• Reality Check:

  • Di Caro suggests Twitter may exaggerate the situation ([03:51]).
  • Trofimov:

    "There's been almost 3,000 Iranian missiles and drones targeting the UAE in 40 days of full scale war ... And then in the 40 days since then, we've just had a dozen or so ... So the level of violence is very, very limited right now." ([03:59])

• Past Attacks:

  • Early phase saw drone strikes on Dubai skyscrapers and Dubai Airport fuel tanks.
    Now, the area is mostly peaceful, although economic ripples remain.

5. The Double Blockade & Maritime Lawworkarounds

• Strait’s Strategic Geography:

  • Di Caro encourages listeners to consult a map for context ([04:36]).
  • Trofimov:
    • Outlines the Iranian blockade of Hormuz:

      “You have a double blockade. First, there's a blockade of this Strait of Hormuz by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps ... It's only 30 miles wide. Using drones and shoulder fired missiles and all sorts of very small weaponry on fast attack boats, the Iranians are able to introduce traffic there." ([05:09])

• Global Oil Market Adaptations:

  • Reference to a New York Times explainer:

    "Some ships report false positions... paint fake names on their hulls... transfer oil ship-to-ship in the middle of the sea... sail under the flags of different countries without those countries' permission." ([01:35])

    • Loopholes and subterfuge common as companies evade sanctions—rules exist, but enforcement is extremely difficult.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• "Buy oil from the United States of America. We have plenty. We have so much."
  — President Trump ([00:21])

• "I think life is more or less normal for those who live in the UAE, unless you work in the hospitality sector where obviously there have been layoffs and many of the hotels have had to close."
  — Yaroslav Trofimov ([02:47])

• "There’s been almost 3,000 Iranian missiles and drones targeting the UAE in 40 days of full scale war ... And then in the 40 days since then, we’ve just had a dozen or so."
  — Yaroslav Trofimov ([03:59])

• "You have a double blockade. First, there's a blockade of this Strait of Hormuz by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps... using drones and shoulder fired missiles and all sorts of very small weaponry..."
  — Yaroslav Trofimov ([05:09])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:01 - Introduction and current status post-U.S. airstrikes
• 00:21 - President Trump’s statements and strategy
• 01:35 - NYT explainer: how ships and oil markets circumvent the blockade
• 02:47 - Yaroslav Trofimov reports from Dubai on local impacts
• 03:59 - Real violence vs. media hype
• 04:36 - UAE oil exports, effects on daily life
• 05:09 - The double blockade and Iranian control of the Strait

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Overall Tone & Takeaways

History as It Happens provides a grounded, historically aware perspective in a moment of crisis. The discussion humanizes the regional situation while unpacking the geopolitical chessboard at the Strait of Hormuz. While global markets and media amplify uncertainty, life for many in the UAE finds a careful, altered normalcy, even as the world waits for the next moves in a long history of conflict over this strategic chokepoint.

Transcript

[A]

This is a bonus episode of history as it happens. It's May 13, 2026, two and a half months after President Trump ordered U.S. forces to bomb Iran. There is now no war, no peace, and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed at both ends. Remember when the President said this a month ago?

[B]

So, to those countries that can't get fuel, many of which refuse to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, we had to do it ourselves. I have a suggestion. Number one, buy oil from the United States of America. We have plenty. We have so much. And number two, build up some delayed courage. Should have done it before, should have done it with us as we asked. Go to the strait and just take it, protect it, use it for yourselves. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done. So it should be easy. And in any event, when this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally. It'll just open up naturally. They're going to want to be able to sell oil because that's all they have to try and rebuild. It will resume the flowing, and the gas prices will rapidly come back down.

[A]

And yesterday, before leaving for China for a summit with Xi Jinping, Trump was still grasping for a resolution.

[B]

Their military is gone. It's wiped out. And we're only going to make a good deal. We'll see what happens. But I believe that one way or the other, it's going to be very good for the American people, and I think actually very good for the Iranian people.

[A]

So if you're a bit confused by what's actually happening in the Strait of Hormuz, I know I am. And how long this can go on before the global economy crashes into recession. The New York Times published an explainer. It tries to make sense of who's coming and going or not coming and going in the Strait. It says some ships report false positions or paint fake names on their hulls. Other ships hide the origins of the oil they're carrying by transferring it from ship to ship in the middle of the sea. And others sail under the flags of different countries without those countries permission. Some do all of the above. The International Maritime Organization, a UN agency, sets out rules that govern the shipping industry, including through the Strait of Hormuz. Most companies abide by those rules, but some do not, because ships operate in international waters and across jurisdictions, making rules easier to circumvent for those looking to evade sanctions or carry illicit cargo. Yaroslav Trofimov has been closely following the story from Dubai, which faces the Persian Gulf. He's the Chief foreign affairs correspondent at the Wall Street Journal. Welcome back. Yaroslav, great to be back. Joining us from Dubai. How are you doing there? What is the mood like in the country?

[C]

There was this 40 day period of full scale war when we had several times a day missile and drone alerts and sometimes strikes. So that ended there was a couple of attacks, basically two days by the Iranians. Since then, you know, nothing hit anything in Dubai or Abu Dhabi. I think they managed to strike with a drone. An oil facility in the port of Fujairah, which is the main export port that is still functioning for UAE oil exports because it's outside the Persian Gulf and it's on the Gulf of Oman. So it's not affected by the closure of the Syrian Mus. But all in all, life is normal. Schools have reopened, you know, the airport, airport is functioning. Traffic in the streets, it's not as much traffic as before. And you don't have all this, you know, millions of tourists in the city that you used to see, but still a fair amount of visitors. I think life is more or less normal for those who live in the uae, unless you work in the hospitality sector where obviously there have been layoffs and many of the hotels have had to close.

[A]

From what you're saying, it sounds like maybe what I'm seeing on Twitter is a bit of an exaggeration compared to reality.

[C]

I mean, look, I mean, there's been almost 3,000 Iranian missiles and drones targeting the UAE in 40 days of full scale war that began on February 28th. And then in the 40 days since then, we've just had a dozen or so. So obviously there is a huge difference in the scope of violence. And also in the first weeks of that war, we've had skyscrapers in Dubai hit by drones. We had the fuel tanks of Dubai Airport on fire. So there was significant invisible damage. So we haven't had any of that in this latest round of skirmish. So the level of violence is very, very limited right now.

[A]

And the war, of course, will have ripple effects for everyone in the region, including the uae. We're going to talk about that now. As it pertains to the Strait of Hormuz, I like to tell my listeners that on another window or somehow while they're listening, open up a map of the Persian Gulf. Take a look at the United Arab Emirates and Dubai. As you mentioned, there's a small piece of the country, the northeastern corner that faces the Gulf of Oman and not the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. So that is where some exports are getting out. So why has it been so difficult to tell what's going on there?

[C]

Well, it's really not that difficult. You have a double blockade. First, there's a blockade of this Strait of Hormuz by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. It's a pretty narrow body of water. It's only 30 miles wide. Using drones and shoulder fired missiles and all sorts of very small weaponry on fast attack boats, the Iranians are able to introduce traffic there.

[A]

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