What if the Gunpowder Plot had succeeded?

Summary

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History Extra Podcast Summary

Episode: "What if the Gunpowder Plot had succeeded?"

Host: Danny Bird
Guest: Professor John Cooper, University of York
Release Date: November 2, 2025

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Overview

In this speculative episode, the History Extra podcast delves into an explosive question: What if the Gunpowder Plot of 1605 had succeeded in its aim to annihilate the English monarchy, parliament, and much of the elite in a single, devastating act? Host Danny Bird and historian Professor John Cooper explore the violent consequences such an event would have unleashed: the possible destruction of the English government, the emergence of a bitter religious civil war, the involvement of European powers, and the fragile unity of the early-modern British Isles.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Physical Impact of the Explosion

[02:58]

• Magnitude of the Blast: Roughly 36 barrels of gunpowder under the House of Lords would have generated a massive explosion, destroying much of the Palace of Westminster.
• Wider Destruction: House of Commons and Westminster Hall would likely have been badly damaged; the blast radius could have extended into Westminster Abbey and devastated surrounding homes and businesses.
• Toxic Aftermath: Early 17th-century gunpowder would emit large amounts of carbon monoxide—survivors of the initial blast might still perish from poisoning.

Notable Quote:

“If it had all ignited, it would have created an almighty explosion, certainly sufficient to destroy most of the Palace of Westminster... Even if you survived the blast, carbon monoxide gas would have been very present and would probably have killed quite a number of the survivors.”
— Professor John Cooper [03:26]

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2. Decapitation of English Leadership

[04:28]

• Who Would Have Died?: The King, heir (Prince Henry), Royal Family, Privy Council, senior judges, much of the nobility, and 450+ members of the Commons would have been present for the State Opening of Parliament—all likely fatalities.
• Unprecedented Vacuum: Loss of both monarchy and most of government in a single instant would leave England with no clear leadership.

Notable Quote:

“It would have completely decapitated English society, English government, in one fell swoop, and that would have created a totally unprecedented situation.”
— Professor John Cooper [05:42]

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3. The Aftermath: Political Vacuum and Uncertainty

[06:09]

• Local Government Structures: Sheriffs, Lords Lieutenant, and magistrates might have continued local administration, but many could also have perished in the blast.
• Collapse or Continuity?: Without direction from London, the government may have collapsed, or local officials might have maintained order temporarily amid confusion.

Notable Quote:

“It would be like a hive of bees that’s lost the Queen... Their controlling presence would have gone.”
— Professor John Cooper [07:01]

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4. Was the Gunpowder Plot the Boldest Terror Plot?

[08:24]

• Scale and Audacity: The plot was exceptionally daring and unique in British history, targeting not just the monarch but the entirety of the government.
• Comparison to Later Events: Later assassinations (like Spencer Perceval) or even the execution of Charles I were not as structurally cataclysmic.

Notable Quote:

“There’s something spectacular... about the level of hubris and just the violence these people... were prepared to consider.”
— Professor John Cooper [09:49]

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5. Foreign Involvement: Would Catholic Europe Have Intervened?

[11:02]

• Reluctance from Spain and France: Despite close Catholic networks, Spain, after the failed Armada, was not inclined toward further direct intervention.
• Puppet Monarchy: Plotters intended to place Princess Elizabeth as a figurehead, potentially appealing to foreign Catholic powers.
• Fragile Anglo-Scottish-Irish Relationships: The union of the kingdom under James was recent and could have fractured under such strain, with unpredictable implications for Scotland and Ireland.

Notable Quote:

“Spain is actually not very interested in leading a kind of Catholic revolution in mainland England... They’ve tried that with the Spanish Armada and it’s been an utter disaster.”
— Professor John Cooper [12:42]

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6. Motivation: Religious Zeal or Political Radicalism?

[14:45]

• Religious Devotion: The conspirators’ willingness to risk death underscores genuine faith-driven motives.
• Political Ideology: Certain plotters, especially Catesby, were influenced by radical discussions on tyrannicide and the idea of overthrowing despotic rulers.
• Blending Motives: Religious and political motivations were intertwined, making the plot both a crusade and a revolutionary action.

Notable Quote:

“Everything starts with their devotion to their faith, which is genuine... But there’s also a really interesting strand of political radicalism.”
— Professor John Cooper [14:52]

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7. Potential for Religious Civil War

[18:00]

• Sectarian Violence Likely: The destruction of Protestant leadership could have spurred a Catholic regime, but deep-seated Protestantism would resist fiercely.
• Multiple Fronts: Possible simultaneous conflicts within England, between England and Scotland, and violent upheaval in Ireland—anticipating the British civil wars of the 1640s.
• International Parallels: Chaotic religious wars like those in France could have visited England.

Notable Quote:

“There is a very strong chance that a religious civil war... would have followed on from the Gunpowder Plot... Protestant England would not just have rolled over and accepted this Catholic takeover.”
— Professor John Cooper [18:23]

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8. Legacy and Memory in British Politics

[21:47]

• Gunpowder Plot as Political Memory: Even as an “outlier” in sheer destructive ambition, the plot left a poisonous legacy, repeatedly invoked in political crises over the next 200+ years.
• Anti-Catholic Rhetoric: Annual celebrations (Bonfire Night), sermons, and effigies of Guy Fawkes embedded the idea of Catholics as existential threats to England.
• Long-Term Impact: The mythology of the plot shaped English identity, especially anti-Catholic sentiment, for generations.

Notable Quote:

“That becomes a powerful and poisonous and pernicious legacy... throughout the 17th century.”
— Professor John Cooper [22:09]

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9. The State of the Monarchy and the Union

[23:44]

• Strength of Monarchy: The plotters aimed to replace, not abolish, the monarchy—a sign of its entrenched strength in political thought.
• Fragility of the Union: While the monarchy was robust, the new union of England and Scotland under one crown was precarious; the plot highlighted these cracks.

Notable Quote:

“It shows possibly some of the strengths of England and certainly the strength of the Crown, but the fragility of Britain.”
— Professor John Cooper [26:23]

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Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• Explosion aftermath: “If it had ignited, it would have been a conflagration.”
  — John Cooper [03:26]
• The political vacuum: “Completely decapitated... in one fell swoop.”
  — John Cooper [05:42]
• Audacity of the plot: “There’s something spectacular... about the level of hubris...”
  — John Cooper [09:49]
• Aftermath speculation: “It would be like a hive of bees that’s lost the Queen...”
  — John Cooper [07:01]
• Civil war prediction: “Something horrific would also have happened in Ireland... massacres on all sides...”
  — John Cooper [20:18]
• On legacy: “A powerful and poisonous and pernicious legacy...”
  — John Cooper [22:09]
• On British union: “It shows... the fragility of Britain.”
  — John Cooper [26:23]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Topic | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------------|------------| | Physical impact of explosion | 02:58–04:28| | Who would have died in the blast | 04:28–06:09| | Political vacuum and aftermath | 06:09–08:24| | The plot’s audacity and comparison to other events | 08:24–10:16| | Foreign Catholic powers’ possible intervention | 11:02–14:45| | Plotters’ motivations: faith vs. politics | 14:45–18:00| | Religious civil war scenarios | 18:00–21:26| | Gunpowder Plot’s legacy and memory | 21:47–23:44| | Monarchy strength and the fragility of the union | 23:44–26:30|

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Conclusion

This alternate history exploration reveals that the Gunpowder Plot, had it succeeded, would have not only annihilated England’s leadership but potentially thrown Britain into sectarian chaos, fractured the nascent union, and forever altered the course of British—and possibly European—history. The episode underscores the enduring resonances of religious

Transcript

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[Professor John Cooper]

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[Professor John Cooper]

Welcome to the History Extra podcast. Fascinating historical conversations from the makers of BBC History magazine.

[Danny Bird]

We know from history that the gunpowder plot of 1605 failed. But what if it hadn't? I'm Danny Bird and for this four part History Extra series on the Gunpowder Plot, I'm joined by historian Professor John Cooper from the University of York. In this third episode, we explore the frightening possibilities of an alternate course in Britain's history. What if Parliament had been reduced to rubble, wiping out king, nobles and clergy in a single blast? Could a compliant child queen have been placed on the throne as the conspirators had hoped? And could England have been plunged into a religious civil war? John if Guy Fawkes had managed to light the fuse, what would the explosion beneath the palace of Westminster have looked like, and what damage would it have caused to the buildings and the surrounding area?

[Professor John Cooper]

We're talking about a lot of gunpowder underneath the House of Lords. So it's something like 36 barrels of the stuff. And there have been modern day experiments trying to recreate that explosion. It, if it had all ignited, and there's a question about whether it would have could have ignited. If it had all ignited, it would have created an almighty explosion, certainly sufficient to destroy most of the palace of Westminster. So the House of Lords would have been blown to pieces. The House of Commons across the courtyard would also have gone. I think Westminster hall would also have been very badly damaged, as would, of course, a lot of houses and businesses in the immediate area. One estimate also shows that the blast radius would have taken in parts of Westminster Abbey as well. So we're talking about an almighty explosion. But also there's a kind of a technical question about the composition of the gunpowder. Early 17th century gunpowder, because of its saltpetre content, apparently it would have produced an enormous amount of carbon monoxide. So even if you survived the blast, carbon monoxide gas would have been very present and would probably have killed quite a number of the survivors. So if it had ignited, it would have been a conflagration.

[Danny Bird]

The opening of Parliament was of course, attended by the King and senior members of the royal family and leading nobles and senior bishops, who exactly might have been killed in the blast. And how would their deaths have reshaped England's leadership? In an instant?

[Professor John Cooper]

Yes. To understand how the blast would have worked and who would have been killed, you really need to understand sort of parliamentary ritual of the period, which actually isn't that different from parliamentary ritual to this day in the sense that when we have a state opening of Parliament, the King still opens Parliament in the House of Lords and the House of Commons crowd in a kind of unruly way at the back without seats. That is exactly how it would happen in early 17th century. So the people seated in the House of Lords would have been the peerage, the Privy Council, bishops and senior judges as well, in the presence of the King, probably the Prince of Wales, Prince Henry, maybe other members of the royal family, but the House of Commons, all of the parliamentarians, all, you know, 450 odd of the parliamentarians, they would also have been at the back of the House of Lords, crowded around the bar of the House with a very clear view of the King giving his speech. So if that explosion had taken place, it would have killed the King and The heir and the government, in the sense of the Privy Council and all of the judges, most of the nobility and most of the House of Commons, all at one go. So it would have completely decapitated English society, English government, in one fell swoop, and that would have created a totally unprecedented situation.

[Danny Bird]

In terms of that unprecedented situation, is it possible to imagine how this political vacuum would have played out across England and maybe further afield in Scotland, Wales, Ireland?

[Professor John Cooper]

It's actually very difficult to imagine what would have happened if the Gunpowder Plot had succeeded, because everything depends on government in London and the entire structure of society depends upon having a monarchy, depends upon having a functioning king or queen. Without that, it's difficult to imagine what would have happened. And even in the late Elizabethan period, when the Privy Council is planning for what might happen, and secretly planning actually for what might happen if Elizabeth were assassinated, the councils assume that they would survive. Right. So even if the Queen is killed, then the Privy Council will be able to create a kind of temporary monarchical governments until another candidate for the throne can be found. In terms of the Gunpowder Plot, if it succeeded in not only destroying the monarchy, but most of the heirs to the throne and all of the members of the government as well, what would have been left? Well, there was a superstructure of society in the English counties, so there is a sheriff in every county. There would be Lords Lieutenant, as there still are. There'd be magistrates at the local level. But the functioning of that system is all quite London focused, really, or Westminster focused. And so without any organising force, it would be like a. Be like a hive of bees that's lost the Queen. You know, their controlling presence would have gone. And I suppose it could have gone one of two ways. Either those systems of the shrievalty, the sheriffs and the Lord Lieutenants were sufficiently robust by this point that that government would have continued at a kind of county level until some sort of a solution was found. That's one possibility. The other possibility is that the whole system would have folded in on itself. And actually, a lot of those sheriffs, a lot of those Lords Lieutenant, would have been at Westminster for the opening of Parliament. So it's another aspect of this, that explosion, as well as taking out central government, it might have taken out a pretty substantial amount of local government as well.

[Danny Bird]

Do you think it's fair to say that the Gunpowder Plot, with this imagined possibility, is therefore arguably one of the boldest acts of terrorism ever conceived?

[Professor John Cooper]

Yes. Whether we call it terrorism or not, we might have a conversation about. It was a fantastically audacious operation that actually comes quite close to succeeding as well. If you abandon the kind of conspiracy theory reading of the Gunpowder Plot, that it's fabricated by the government or swept into sort of action by the government, then actually to have that much gunpowder stored in the palace of Westminster for months, being guarded by Guy Fawkes and being visited by the conspirators and then coming, well, at least according to one account, coming within hours of being ignited. It's on a scale that it's different from anything, I think, in English or British history. Even in a subsequent period of 17th century history, even when you have the execution of King Charles I, the execution of King Charles I is replaced rapidly by a parliamentary regime that kind of adopts a lot of the parliamentary protocols and a lot of the sort of monarchical structure is just within a kind of republican framework. If you think about the early 19th century, when a Prime Minister assassinated Spencer Percival, you know, the structures of government around Spencer Percival survive. So it's not as if the assassination of a Prime Minister is going to lead to national collapse. There's something spectacular about the. I mean, horribly spectacular about the level of vision or level of hubris and just the violence that these people, the Gunpowder Plotters, were prepared to consider it is really rather astonishing.

[Danny Bird]

Looking a bit more to what the plotters may have imagined could follow in the wake of this preconceived chaos. Obviously, we have mentioned in the previous episode, Princess Elizabeth was intended to be a sort of puppet monarch by Robert Catesby and some of the other leading conspirators. Now, England's Catholics often looked abroad for support from Catholic Europe, countries such as Spain, France and even Vatican. And this was especially the case for the Gumhauder plotters, wasn't it? You know, they were very much involved within European Catholic circles, as we've already referenced in previous episodes, that Guy Fawkes fought for Catholics in the Spanish Netherlands. If the plot had succeeded, what do you think is the likelihood that foreign powers would have become involved in England's internal affairs?

[Professor John Cooper]

We're completely in the realm of speculation here. I think that one of the reasons that the Gunpowder Plot plays out in the way that it does is because Spain isn't very interested in intervening in English affairs. So the fact that the Gunpowder Plot was a plot of English conspirators without the promise of foreign aid is quite a significant factor there. It's possible, of course, that in this kind of counterfactual world that our plotters setting up a kind of, you know, ersatz, monarchical regime, a puppet Catholic regime under the Princess Elizabeth or Queen Elizabeth ii. It's possible that they would have reached out to the Catholic powers of Europe. I think it's much more likely they would have reached out to Spain than to France. And it is further possible that Philip III would have seen this as an opportunity to support a pro Catholic regime in England. But by and large, I think that what the Spanish would have wanted is a stable England or a stable Britain to maintain as an ally and a trading partner. I think that that's one of the things that they'd be wanting. So I think that the history of relations between England and Spain and relations around the gunpowder plotters prove that Spain is, it's actually not very interested in leading a kind of Catholic revolution in mainland England. You know, in a sense they've tried that with a Spanish Armada and it's been an utter disaster and Spain has pulled back from that world. I mean, I think what is really interesting in carrying on that kind of counterfactual history is what it would have done to the emerging entity of Britain. So so far what we've been talking about is very much an English story. But of course, James VI of Scots has become James I of England and has also become King of Ireland. And so there's a very interesting set of kind of speculations one might have about the relationship between England, Scotland and Ireland if the Gunpowder plotter succeeded.

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[Danny Bird]

What do you think mattered more to the conspirators? Their devotion to their faith or their political ambition to reshape the kingdom?

[Professor John Cooper]

I think everything starts with their devotion to their faith, which is genuine. These people clearly are prepared to risk their lives in, as I said, a very audacious, but an extraordinarily dangerous operation. It's a massively risky operation. They must have gone into this thinking that there was a strong likelihood that they would die. And they seem to have been okay about this. I mean, they seem to have understood this. And certainly we know that one or two of the conspirators talked in confession to the priests about what they were doing, precisely in what terms. They talked about what they were about to try and do, but is unclear. So priestly knowledge of the Gunpowder Plot is one of those very sort of shady areas where you might take a variety of different views on it. I think those men wanted to sort of go into this operation in a state of grace, in a state of Catholic grace and having received a kind of absolution of their sins hitherto. Which is not to say that the Catholic Church was giving its blessing to the Gunpowder Plot, because I don't think it was doing that at all. I think they wanted to be at ease in their consciences. And they do see this. The extent to which they see it as a religious crusade is an interesting question. I do think that they think they are working for the Mass of the English Catholic community. They are working so that their generation of Catholics and future generations of Catholics will not be under the kind of the groaning tyrann that Catholics have been facing since the Reformation. That said, there's also a really interesting strand of political radicalism, particularly around Catesby and Winter. And Catesby, we have to remember, you know, he'd been to university, he'd been to Oxford. He was aware probably of discussions taking place in religious and intellectual circles around tyrannicide about when, if ever, it's legitimate in the eyes of God to stand up against your ruler. And, you know, there are very different opinions on that, very different interpretations of the Bible on that. But Catesby, he's sort of carrying into operation the most sort of radical political arguments around tyrannicide, that if A tyrannical ruler commands you to do something that is contrary to the will of God, then it is your right to rise up against that unlawfully constituted authority. And under some circumstances, it might be your duty, it might be your obligation to rise up against that. And so I think that thinking is going through Catesby's mind and Winter's mind. And we have one fantastic detail about both of those men, that they have swords made. They have swords made in Spain that are inscribed with the passion of Christ and devotional motifs. So if we're looking for a sort of a religious crusade, that does seem to imply that Catesby and Winter thought they were on some sort of holy mission.

[Danny Bird]

Now, we've essentially discussed that had the Plot succeeded, it would have resulted in a political vacuum within England, that there would have been political chaos. Could this then have sparked some kind of bloody religious civil war similar to those that had just devastated France in the previous century?

[Professor John Cooper]

Yes, again, we're into the realm of speculative sort of counterfactual history. I think there is a very strong chance that a religious civil war, or at least some sort of sectarian strife, would have followed on from the Gunpowder Plot. So a lot had changed since the mid 16th century when, you know, Mary I had led, in a sense, a Catholic revolution and had taken, as she saw it, rightful control of the country for five years and ruled and returned England to being a Catholic country. That long reign of Elizabeth had really changed the religious and social fabric of England. Protestantism was deeply embedded in the English establishment, amongst parliamentarians, amongst lawyers, in the universities, but also amongst a lot of ordinary people. I mean, we focus so far very much on sort of popular Catholicism, but there was a lot of popular Protestantism that also, at its edges, connected with xenophobia, an anti Catholic sentiment of various kinds. So Protestant England would not just have rolled over and accepted, I think, this Catholic takeover. How those forces would have deployed against each other, you know, which was stronger, the Catholic side or the Protestant side, is very difficult to say. In terms of the fabric of England, what I do think is clear is it would have precipitated a crisis within Britain. So Scotland was substantially Protestant with a strong Catholic minority. There is no way that the Scottish establishment, the Presbyterian Scottish establishment, would have accepted a Catholic rule over Scotland from England. That is inconceivable. So we might have seen a return to the sort of conflict, military conflict between Scotland and England that had, you know, been endemic right the way through the later Middle Ages and carried on into the 16th century. I think something horrific would also have happened in Ireland earlier than it did. So the story of 17th century Ireland is a pretty horrific story. And, you know, once we get into the Civil war of the 1640s, we see massacres, I mean, massacres on all sides, in fact, but famously massacres of Protestants on the plantations in Ireland. I think that a Catholic regime in England would have enabled that Gaelic Catholic resurgence in Ireland, and the English or Anglo Scots plantations in Southern Ireland and in Ulster would have been wiped out very quickly, actually. So what we're talking about, potentially a sort of a civil war in two different ways. We're talking about a kind of internal English Civil War, but we're also talking about a conflict between the component parts of the British Isles. And that's actually. That's remarkably similar to what actually happened in the 1640s. So the civil War was actually the British Civil Wars. It was a conflict between the component parts and among the component parts of the British Isles, as well as being a military series of military campaigns within England. So all of that might have happened 40 years earlier.

[Danny Bird]

Well, that leads me onto my next question, which is that the 1600s are infamously a very tumultuous time within the history of Britain and Ireland. I wanted to get a sense of. Of what you think the Gunpowder Plot's place is within that sort of sequence of events. Do you think it has any sort of influence on the rest of that century? Or is it something which is a bit of an outlier?

[Professor John Cooper]

I mean, the Gunpowder Plot is an outlier in the sense of it just the scale of what was attempted and how close it came to succeeding. We don't see another incident in quite that way, but it has an extraordinary resonance. It has an extraordinary political legacy because of the way that it's propagandized and because of the way that it's reshaped and reimagined and remembered. So the idea that Catholic plotters had come so close to destroying the monarchy, parliament, the royal family, the entire political establishment, that becomes a powerful and poisonous and pernicious legacy, really, throughout the 17th century. And you see echoes of this in some of the rhetoric, political rhetoric in the 1630s. You see references to gunpowder treason around the trial and execution of King Charles I as a result of him losing the Civil War. You also see it around the time of the Popish Plot with Titus Oates at the end of the 1670s, and you see it again around the time of the Glorious Revolution. And this is not that surprising when you think that every English parish Church, once a year, is celebrating the memory of the discovery of the Gunpowder Plot. And there are bonfires and there are effigies of Guy Fawkes being burned, and there are people setting off fireworks and engaging in all sorts of festivities and rioting in order to kind of celebrate that God's delivery of Protestant England and that rhetoric, God's delivery of Protestant England, very sectarian rhetoric, is very clear in a lot of sermons being preached as well. You know, once you get beyond the actual events of 1605, the kind of the memory of it and the embellishment becomes a major factor in the politics of the rest of the 17th century. But also subsequently, you can hear its echoes in the 18th and even in the 19th century.

[Danny Bird]

John, what do these counterfactual scenarios reveal about just how unstable and fragile James reign was? And what do you think the Plot says about the sort of state of the monarchy at this particular juncture in history?

[Professor John Cooper]

My sense is monarchy, the principal monarchy, is very strong. So the Catholic plotters, they are not trying to set up some kind of a republic. Their thinking is entirely monarchical. They're not trying to think outside the box of monarchy. They're trying to put a substitute Catholic puppet monarchy, but it's still a monarchy. So I don't think the Gunpowder Plot reveals any sense of fragility around the system of governing by monarchy of the sort that you see in the 1640s when the monarchy is finally abolished forever, as people think in 1649. How the structures of monarchy, or the crown, perhaps we should say more precisely, would have functioned in that chaos situation of 6 November 1605 remains to be speculated on. We just don't know how the counties would have responded. What I think the Gunpowder Plot does show is actually it's the fragility of Britain more than England, actually in this entity of Britain that James VI and First is talking about is very recent, and it's really bound together only in his person. He is King of Scots and he's King of England. And he happens also because of Henry VIII to be King of Ireland. And James thinks that because he is king of all of those places, that that creates a perfect union, that that kind of creates this united Kingdom of Britain. And this is the first time that we really start seeing a modern usage of the term Britain. And even sometimes the concept of a kingdom united. It's not yet the United Kingdom that would happen in the. In the 18th century, but that's actually very fragile. And it's not just the Gunpowder Plot that proves that. But it's what happens in Parliament following the Gunpowder Plot, actually, when Parliament votes down the idea of an actual political union between England and Scotland, which remains a pretty important constitutional fact to this day. There was a possibility in James I's reign to create kind of a genuinely annexed and united England and Scotland, but the English Parliament and the Scots Parliament both are very uneasy about that, and it sort of, you know, voted down on both sides of the border essentially. So I think it shows possibly some of the strengths of England and certainly the strength of the Crown, but the fragility of Britain.

[Danny Bird]

Next time we'll be looking at the Gunpowder Plot's legacy, from Bonfire Night to Guy Fawkes extraordinary afterlife as an anti Establishment icon. If you enjoyed today's episode and want to to know more about the Gunpowder Plot, head over to the History Extra app. To go beyond the podcast, I've selected several articles from the BBC History Magazine and the History Extra archives that will help you to broaden your knowledge of what you've learned today with features from historians including Lucy Worsley, Justin Pollard, Claire Jackson, and more. You can find a link to download the app and access that content in the description of this episode.

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[White Claw Search Announcer]

Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us.

[Liberty Mutual Announcer]

Cut the camera.

[Danny Bird]

They see us.

[White Claw Search Announcer]

Only pay for what you need @libertymutual.com Savings Fairy, underwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company affiliates. Excludes Massachusetts.