Podcast
Hotspotting
Hosted by Terry Ryder & Tim Graham · EN
Prepare to embark on an exciting journey into the realm of hot property markets with Terry Ryder and Tim Graham! Terry & Tim from Hotspotting, are dedicated to providing the most accurate and unbiased research to help investors make informed decisions on where to buy. The Hotspotting Podcast brings you the latest data, trends, and market statistics, along with in-depth discussions on growth areas and the larger factors impacting Australia's property landscape.
Terry & Tim regularly feature special guests from around Australia to share their industry insights and expertise to help investors cut through the noise.
Whether you're a seasoned investor or a first-time buyer, this show is a must-listen for anyone looking to build their knowledge and make smarter investment choices. Terry Ryder, with over 35 years of experience as a specialist researcher and writer in residential property, offers expert insights that are completely independent and free from outside influences. Tim Graham has been a buyers agent and mortgage broker for over 13 years along with working in real estate all over the world.
Join us on the Hotspotting Podcast and discover the hottest opportunities in the Australian property market today!
54episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
Why Building New Homes Is No Longer Financially Viable
Jan 2900:04:17Tap to summarizeWhen even the NSW Government cannot make housing projects financially viable, what does that say about the real state of Australia's housing market? In this episode, we unpack why Landcom has scrapped major housing developments across western Sydney and what that reveals about construction costs, feasibility pressures, government housing targets and the growing gap between political promises and commercial reality. If you follow Australian property, housing affordability, real estate trends or market analysis, this episode cuts through the noise and gets to the numbers that actually matter.
Transcribe →Australia's Growth Leaders of 2026 Revealed
Jan 2700:05:50Tap to summarizeAustralia's property markets are set for growth in 2026 – but not in the way most experts think. In this episode, we dive into the Growth Leaders 2026 report from Hotspotting and Finance Better to uncover which cities and regions are poised for the biggest price increases. From capital cities to regional hotspots, even the markets thought to be "weaker" are showing strong signs of upward movement. We explore six key metrics that reveal the real drivers behind property value growth – beyond interest rates and media speculation. Tune in to discover where smart buyers and investors should be looking this year and why the data tells a very different story to the headlines.
Transcribe →Red Tape and Taxes Are Killing Housing Supply
Jan 1900:06:46Tap to summarizeAustralia's housing crisis isn't a mystery – it's the result of government choices. In this episode, we dig into why Victoria is making home ownership harder than ever, from excessive red tape and slow approvals to punitive taxes that push costs through the roof. We break down the numbers, explore the real impact on buyers and developers, and uncover the structural barriers keeping new homes out of reach. If you've ever wondered why supply isn't meeting demand or why building a home is so expensive, this episode explains it all. Tune in to get the full picture behind Australia's housing shortage and what it means for the future of home ownership.
Transcribe →What the Headlines Are Getting Wrong About Home Building in 2026
Jan 1600:05:51Tap to summarizeAustralia's home building "recovery" is dominating headlines — but does it actually stack up? In this episode, we unpack the latest building approvals data and explain why a single strong month does not signal a genuine turnaround in Australia's housing market. We explore the real gap between approvals, commencements and completions, why so many approved projects never get built, and how construction costs, labour shortages and government red tape are constraining housing supply in 2026. If you care about housing affordability, property markets, real estate trends or policy reform, this episode delivers clear, independent analysis without the media spin.
Transcribe →Approvals V Construction
Dec 18, 202400:04:50Tap to summarizeTwo very different headlines have summed up the problems for Australia’s ongoing housing shortage. One of the recent media headlines declared that building approvals were at a two-year high and that things were improving for the nation’s housing shortage. The other described why building approvals are almost irrelevant – it said that project deferrals are occurring at a record rate. The reality of the current crisis is this: it doesn’t matter how many houses and apartments are approved for construction – and it doesn’t matter how many re-zonings state governments push through or what incentives they hand out to first-home buyers. Most real estate developments are not proceeding because they’re not financially viable. One of those media headlines read: Building approvals hit two-year high as apartment construction surges. This was incorrect - apartment construction is not surging – approvals are, but many projects are simply not being built because they’re not viable in the current environment. It’s so expensive to build that the end price for the dwellings would be far too high for most buyers – and therefore not financially feasible. In October, Australian dwelling approvals reached their highest level in 22 months - with nearly 15,000 new homes approved for construction during the month. ABS data showed total dwelling approvals rose 4.2 per cent for the month, with approvals for apartments and townhouses jumping 25 per cent to over 5,800 units, the highest since May 2023 – but private house approvals fell 5.2 per cent. The AFR showed a startling lack of understanding of the problems in the industry when it declared in a headline: Worst has passed for new home building The article said: “The worst has passed for Australia’s medium- and high-rise housing sector, economists said on Monday, after a jump in approvals of new apartments, townhouses and semi-detached homes.” KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said: “The bad times are starting to end … Even with interest rates being unchanged for the year, they still have that confidence that if they can get a project out of the ground they’ll be able to sell it at a profit.” But that, we think, was rather naïve – and others were less optimistic. The Property Council of Australia pointed out that apartment approvals were still at half their level of the development boom under way in FY2018. And Oxford Economics Australia senior economist Maree Kilroy said: “While the latest approval result for apartments was positive, we continue to expect a materially higher dropout rate to commencement.” In other words, many approvals would not translate into construction. She referred to utility connection bottlenecks and trade labour shortages as problems in the sector. Matthew Kandelaars of the Property Council said: “We need to get back to the construction levels seen nearly 10 years ago. We are now six months into the National Housing Accord’s ambitious target of delivering 1.2 million new homes and we cannot allow the target to slowly fade into the background over the next 4½ years.” According to a new report, money is still flowing into the construction industry but more and more of it is being dedicated to renovating. KPMG released analysis of spending in the residential construction sector, revealing that while spending on renovations has boomed over the past five years, new residential construction on a per-capita basis has hit a low not seen since 1988. Over the past five years, spending on new home building has dropped 14 per cent, adjusted for inflation. By comparison, the amount of funding flowing into renovations has increased by 6.5 per cent. KPMG said: “For every nail hammered and brick laid in residential construction, 40 per cent of it is going into renovating a pre-existing home.” So the underlying problem remains. Regardless of how many dwellings are approved, far too few are proceeding to construction – so the fundamental shortage continues and there will continue to be upward pressure on prices and rents.
Transcribe →Webinar Replay: Reflections & Projections - A Deep Dive into Real Estate Trends & Forecasts
Dec 18, 202401:03:33Tap to summarizeIn this insightful webinar, Terry Ryder, founder of Hotspotting, and Tim Graham, Hotspotting’s General Manager, analyze the surprises and trends of 2024 in the Australian property market and share their projections for 2025. With decades of combined experience, they provide investors with actionable advice on navigating the coming year. Key Highlights 2024 in Review Defying Predictions: Despite high interest rates and inflationary pressures, property prices rose by an average of 5.53% nationally in 2024. Perth led with an astonishing 18.7% growth, followed by regional Western Australia, Adelaide, and Brisbane. Surprise Winners: Hotspotting’s 2024 National Best Buys Report proved remarkably accurate, with 9 out of 10 selected locations achieving growth three times the national average. Shift to Apartments: Demand for attached dwellings surged, driven by affordability and lifestyle preferences, with some unit markets outperforming houses in capital growth. 2025 Projections Second Wind Markets: Regions like the Sunshine Coast, Albury-Wodonga, and Ballarat are emerging from a "pause phase" and are primed for growth, fueled by rising sales volumes and infrastructure developments. Avoid Frenzied Markets: Perth, Adelaide, and regional Queensland hotspots like Townsville are reaching their peaks. Investors should seek opportunities in undervalued markets with long-term growth potential. Surprising Contenders: Cities like Darwin and Launceston, as well as regional Victorian areas, are poised for unexpected growth, offering affordability and strong rental yields. Emerging Trends Affordability Focus: High interest rates are amplifying the appeal of regions with lower entry prices and strong rental yields. Infrastructure Impact: Areas benefiting from large-scale projects, such as Toowoomba and inland rail hubs, continue to attract growth. Changing Investor Mindsets: Long-term strategies and careful market selection are replacing speculative approaches. Special Offers National Top 10 Best Buys Report: Just $249. Best of the Best Bundle: Three premium reports for $399 (save $200). Exclusive Property Course: Register now for early bird discounts on Hotspotting’s comprehensive new property investment course launching in 2025. Special Offers National Top 10 Best Buys Report: Just $249. https://www.hotspotting.com.au/product/national-top-10-best-buys/ Best of the Best Bundle: Three premium reports for $399 (save $198). https://www.hotspotting.com.au/product/best-of-the-best-bundle/ Exclusive Property Course: Register now for early bird discounts on Hotspotting’s comprehensive new property investment course launching in 2025. Register your interest for early-bird specials: https://lwdt7n6k0ij.typeform.com/to/MHVUya51
Transcribe →Best Buys Result
Dec 17, 202400:03:28Tap to summarizeYou don’t have to be super rich or invest $1 million to make big capital gains in residential real estate: you just need to follow Hotspotting’s signature report, the National Top 10 Best Buys report. Those who followed the tips in our report of a year ago could have made close to $100,000 in capital gains spending as little as $400,000 – or $180,000 in gains after investing $630,000. In December 2023 we published our National Top Best Buys reports for Summer 2023-34. Our top 10 locations for investors to consider covered a wide range of price points, from less than $300,000 and above $1 million. And all 10 regions suggested in that report a year ago include suburbs which have delivered spectacular gains in the past 12 months. Many rose by more than 20% in 12 months, compared with the national average rise of just 5.5%. In Bunbury in Western Australia, you would have paid below $350,000 for the typical house in suburbs like Carey Park and Withers – and seen your investment grow by $90,000 or more, following annual growth between 25% to 30%. Even a modest investment of less than $300,000 for a small unit in Carlton in inner-city Melbourne would have shown excellent capital growth, out-performing the generally flat Melbourne market. Those with more to spend late in 2023 could have achieved over $200,000 in capital growth by buying houses at the median price in locations such as Punchbowl in Sydney and Carrara on the Gold Coast, or apartments in Elizabeth Bay in Sydney. More mid-range were units in Kangaroo Point in Brisbane or at Runaway Bay on the Gold Coast; and houses in Tea Tree Gully in Adelaide or Fairy Meadow in Wollongong – all delivering $100,000 or more in gains for those who bought around the median price for those locations. The average situation arising out of our National Top 10 Best Buys report a year ago was investing $640,000 and achieving a 21% rise in value, which means capital gains of $146,000. We’ve recently published our National Top 10 Best Buys report with our selections to launch 2025. And, in keeping with our tradition of seeking to identify the future hotspots – which means locations with potential for strong price growth, but before those markets rise strongly and become competitive – the new edition of Best Buys does not include already hot markets like Perth, Adelaide and key regional markets in Queensland. We’ve identified places where you can buy sensibly, with due diligence, and look forward to excellent capital growth over time.
Transcribe →Listings Rise
Dec 12, 202400:03:12Tap to summarizeThe greatest complaint heard most often in real estate across Australia is that there are plenty of buyers, but a shortage of listings. The number of properties for sale has been well short of the levels needed for a balanced market, particularly in the boom cities of Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth. But that is steadily changing. According to SQM Research, total listings of properties for sale nationwide grew 7.6% in November and are now more than 10% higher than a year ago. Perhaps most significantly, there were major rises in November in those three boom cities, with the number of listings up 20% in Perth and close to 17% in Adelaide, with Brisbane recording a rise of 8.6%. That follows significant increases in October also. The rise in listings nationally in November was driven by a 6.4% rise in old listings (stock on market over 180 days) and a notable 22% rise in properties being on the market between 30 to 90 days. SQM Research commented that this strongly indicated that the spring selling season had been a disappointing period for vendors and agents. Cities with significant annual increases in listings included Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart – all up 16 to 17 per cent – and Canberra, up 23% in annual terms. Comparing the current situation with recent history, national listings of properties for sale are still below the levels common before 2021, but have been generally rising since July. In Sydney, listings are the highest they’ve been since 2019 and in Melbourne they’re the highest since November 2020. In Canberra they’re close to the peak levels of 2019. In Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide they’re still well below historic levels but have been rising steadily since mid-2024, with particularly large increases in November. The rise in the number of properties for sale coincides with evidence that the rate of price growth is reducing in those market-leading cities. The big exception in all this is Darwin, the only capital city to record a reduction in the number of listings in November – and it remains 17% below the levels of a year ago. The figures provide further evidence of change in individual markets, with a growing number of indictors that the Perth boom has passed its peak and that there may be stronger price performance in places like Darwin in 2025.
Transcribe →Media Absurdities
Dec 12, 202400:07:24Tap to summarizeThings are constantly changing in real estate nationwide but the one factor that never changes is this: we can always rely on news media to distort the facts and deliver a steady flow of misinformation to Australian consumers, all in the interests of attracting readership, with little regard for accuracy, honesty or fairness. The past week or so has been chockful of media nonsense. If you can believe the headlines, the national property boom is over, house prices are plunging, the rental boom is over and the North Queensland city of Townsville is a mining town. One of the constants of my 40-plus years charting Australian real estate is that there are lines and lines of idiots scrambling to be the first to declare that a boom is over, usually long before it actually is. This is often fed by data research entities like CoreLogic where the key people never let the facts get in the way of good headline and free publicity. So Australia has been resplendent lately with strident headlines declaring that the national property boom is over or words to that effect. Here’s the first problem: we don’t have a national property boom so it’s rather odd to declare that something which doesn’t exist is finished. We have certainly had a boom in Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane among the capital cities, but certainly nothing remotely resembling a boom in the other five state and territory capitals. It’s a similar scenario in the regional markets, with a variety of different situations ranging from downturn and stagnation to moderate growth and, in some cases, strongly rising prices. But nationally growth in house and unit prices has averaged 6 or 7 percent throughout 2024 – and lately the annual growth rate, as a national average, has been 4 or 5 percent. Only in the fertile imaginations of media headline writers would that constitute a boom. But, according to various media outlets, this mythical boom is over – even though the latest figures for annual growth in three of our capital cities and three of our state regional markets are still well above 10%. The only places where the evidence suggests the boom is over are the ones where a boom never took place – like Melbourne, Hobart, Darwin and Canberra. But not only, according to media, is the fictional national boom over, but property prices are plunging. One headline in Fairfax media claimed to reveal Why property prices are plunging across Australia – amid warning they could slide even further. A close examination of the article underneath this startling headline discovered there was no evidence in the story to justify the headline. Quite simply, the headline was a blatant fabrication – which, sadly, is all too common in today’s news media. The article revealed that Sydney’s median price was 0.8% lower than three months earlier but 3.3% higher than a year earlier, while Melbourne was down 1% over three months. Nothing in those figures goes even close to “prices plunging”. In the other major cities prices were still rising and indeed were still growing at boom time rates. House prices were also up in the Combined Regions in the latest month, the latest quarter and the past year– and unit prices were also up nationally, both in the cities and the regions. So, there was very little sign of even minor decline in prices anywhere and certainly no evidence at all of price plunging. So this was yet another instance of a headline which was an outright and blatant lie. And who wrote this rubbish? well, it was the champion of negative media about residential real estate, the endlessly sad Shane Wright who has devoted his career to writing nonsense about property markets. But wait, there’s more. Not only is the fictional national price boom over, but apparently the rental boom is over as well! There have been strident headlines and soundbites inferring that rents are no longer rising. As is so often the case with these big sweeping media statements, the claim was based on a single month’s figures from one source. Nationally, rents rose only 0.2% in November, according to CoreLogic, therefore the boom is over in the simplistic minds of attention-seeking analysts and journalists. And, yes, once again, the source of this myopic and shallow analysis is CoreLogic, a business which publishes lots of major real estate data but is quite dreadful at analysing what it all means. So CoreLogic’s head of research Tim Lawless said: “At 5.3% annual growth, rents are still rising at more than twice the pre-pandemic decade average of 2.0%, but given the weak monthly change the annual trend is set to slow further from here. “It will be interesting to see if the rate of rental growth rebounds through the seasonally strong first quarter of the year in 2025, but beyond any seasonality, it looks increasingly like the rental boom is over”. But other sources tell a different story. SQM Research records a monthly rise of a tick under 1% as the national average for residential rents, with Adelaide up 1.1%, Perth rising 1.9% and Canberra up 1.5%. The national vacancy rate remains a fraction above 1%, essentially unchanged from three years ago, so can anyone justify a claim that the rental shortage crisis and rising rents is all done and dusted? Hardly. Another startling set of headlines resulted from the latest Regional Market Update from CoreLogic which declared that the highest capital growth was occurring in Queensland and WA mining towns. I was truly perplexed because I know there has been little price growth recently in mining towns like Karratha, Port Hedland and Newman in WA and Moranbah in Queensland. However, the headlines resulted from CoreLogic boffins – yes, it’s CoreLogic again - re-defining major regional cities as mining towns. Apparently Townsville, which has one of the most diverse economies in regional Australia, with only minor influence from the resources sector, is now a mining town. So is the key Central Queensland of Mackay, apparently, despite being 2-3 hours’ drive from the nearest coal mine. In WA, the key regional city of Geraldton is also, apparently, a mining town, according to Core illogic, although the nearest iron ore mine is an hour’s drive away. All of this, and a whole lot more, reinforces our view that there is more misinformation than actual information in mainstream media. And that any real estate consumer who bases a decision on the content of media reports is at risk of making a very bad decision.
Transcribe →2025 Predictions
Dec 12, 202400:05:27Tap to summarizeRumours of the death of ‘the national property boom’ are greatly exaggerated – especially since we didn’t have a national property boom in 2024. Rather, over the past 12 months, we have seen differing market cycles in many locations - as is the usual state of play in real estate throughout Australia. Strong property price growth was recorded in Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane in 2024, but not in Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra, Darwin or Hobart. Similarly, in the regional areas, there were declining and stagnating markets, as well as some where prices were showing good price growth. This is situation normal in Australian real estate. It’s a big country and real estate markets are very local in nature. So, a national property boom? We haven’t had one. So you ignore headlines declaring that the national property boom is over. So, what can we expect in residential real estate in 2025? Firstly, the major bank economists will predict price declines in 2025 – as they did at the start of 2023 and again at the start of 2024 - and will be proven wrong yet again because it they fail to understand the basic dynamics that drive prices in residential real estate. Politicians will continue to scapegoat their traditional targets of foreigners (migrants, international students and foreign investors) as well as mum-and-dad Australian investors – and enlist the help of shallow journalists to infer that these cohorts are the cause of all the problems in the housing markets. The reality is that investors, local and foreign, are not the problem – they are the solution. They hold the keys to solving the housing crisis. Meanwhile, most State Governments will continue to make the housing crisis worse with anti-investor policies - with the negative ramifications of recent rental reforms to become more apparent as 2025 unfolds. Vacancy rates will remain low, but the rate of rental growth generally will slow because markets have hit a ceiling due to limits in the capacity of tenants to pay more. However, restrictive rental legislation by various state and territory governments will continue to motivate some investors to sell up – thereby making the rental shortage worse. The Greens will continue to embarrass themselves and lose voter support with anti-investor rants, with the Federal Election due early in the year likely to see their influence reduce even more. Investors will continue to pile into the frenzied markets, mostly in regional Queensland -however, the smart money will target locations early in the growth cycle, not at the end. Evidence that the Perth market has passed its peak will become more apparent with a similar slowdown forecast for regional WA. The solid economic and market fundamentals in Adelaide means it will continue to show solid growth next year as well as Brisbane and regional Queensland. Melbourne did not have a good year in 2023 or in 2024, but I believe it will start to rise next year, thanks to the price differential with Sydney and its high population growth. This will occur despite Melbourne having the worst state government and the highest taxes in the nation. Darwin will be targeted by investors and will begin to show some price growth next year, too. More and more indicators are favourable for the Northern Territory capital, with investors seeking its affordable houses and high rental yields. The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle will continue, boosting many regional markets, as more big city residents seek a different and more affordable way of living, enabled by technology and the ability to work remotely. What we have termed the ‘second-wind markets’ will ignite. These are locations where the market sprinted (with major price growth) from 2022 to 2024, has been catching it breath since then, and now, having got its second wind, is starting to run again. They include regional cities such as Albury-Wodonga and Tamworth in NSW, the Sunshine Coast and Hervey Bay in Queensland, Bendigo and Ballarat in Victoria, as well as Launceston and Burnie in Tasmania. There will continue to be a lot of conjecture about interest rates next year, but the potential impact of any rate reductions will be largely irrelevant and greatly over-rated by many economists and news media. As we’ve learned from the past two years, trends with interest rates are not the major influence on real estate outcomes. If they were, prices would have fallen everywhere over the past two years. And that, clearly, has not been the case.
Transcribe →