Podcast
Hotspotting
Hosted by Terry Ryder & Tim Graham · EN
Prepare to embark on an exciting journey into the realm of hot property markets with Terry Ryder and Tim Graham! Terry & Tim from Hotspotting, are dedicated to providing the most accurate and unbiased research to help investors make informed decisions on where to buy. The Hotspotting Podcast brings you the latest data, trends, and market statistics, along with in-depth discussions on growth areas and the larger factors impacting Australia's property landscape.
Terry & Tim regularly feature special guests from around Australia to share their industry insights and expertise to help investors cut through the noise.
Whether you're a seasoned investor or a first-time buyer, this show is a must-listen for anyone looking to build their knowledge and make smarter investment choices. Terry Ryder, with over 35 years of experience as a specialist researcher and writer in residential property, offers expert insights that are completely independent and free from outside influences. Tim Graham has been a buyers agent and mortgage broker for over 13 years along with working in real estate all over the world.
Join us on the Hotspotting Podcast and discover the hottest opportunities in the Australian property market today!
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Regional Investment Boom
Dec 5, 2024Tap to summarizeVictoria’s real estate market is witnessing a significant shift as young first-home buyers increasingly seek affordable housing in regional areas. According to recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), first-home buyer loans in Victoria soared to 4,202 in July – the highest number in nearly two years. This surge reflects growing confidence among young buyers and a trend towards exploring housing options beyond Melbourne. Nationally, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the Regional Australia Institute report that the flow of people from cities to regional areas is now 16 per cent above pre-pandemic levels. The Regional Movers Index indicates a 27 per cent increase in people moving from cities to regional areas compared to those moving in the opposite direction during the June quarter. Over the past year, 11.2 per cent of movers have relocated from cities to regions, with three-quarters settling in Victoria or NSW, up from half of all movers last year. Government incentives such as the First Home Owner Grant and stamp duty exemptions are boosting this trend. Regional Victoria hotspots such as Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong are seeing heightened interest from first-home buyers eager to take advantage of lower property prices. Greater Geelong, in particular, has emerged as the most sought-after regional LGA in Victoria. And this affordability attraction has equal appeal to property investors. In contrast to Melbourne’s median house price of more than $900,000, regional Victoria offers numerous more affordable options. Geelong’s median house price is $720,000, while Ballarat and Bendigo are even more budget-friendly at $550,000 and $490,000. This affordability makes ownership accessible for buyers who might be priced out of Melbourne’s market. The work-from-home trend, enabled by technology and accelerated by the pandemic, has also contributed to this shift. Many Victorians now have the flexibility to work remotely, making it feasible to live in regional areas while maintaining their careers. This flexibility enables buyers to enjoy a better lifestyle balance without sacrificing their job connections in Melbourne. For investors considering buying in Regional Victoria, and concerned that prices have not increased recently, it’s worth remembering that longer term Victoria has an exceptional track record on capital growth. Regional Victoria ranked fifth in the nation in the recent PIPA research into where the best capital growth has occurred in the past 20 years – ahead of Perth, Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra and the regional markets of NSW, Queensland and Western Australia. According to the PIPA research, home values in Regional Victoria grew 187% over the past two decades. Another factor in favour of investors is that Victoria’s rental market is shrinking, which means there are fewer vacant properties. New data from Victoria’s Department of Families, Fairness and Housing reveals a sharp contraction in the state’s rental market, with active rental bonds dropping by 21,712 in the year to June 2024. This marks the first decline in recorded history since 1999, representing a significant shift in market dynamics. PropTrack has attributed much of the contraction to Victoria’s rising property taxes, stricter rental standards and sustained high interest rates, which has made rental property ownership less attractive and more expensive for landlords. While around 50,000 new loans were made to investors during the 2024 financial year, PropTrack noted that the influx was insufficient to offset the exodus, leading to a net loss of rental properties. The data also indicated that the churn rate for sales by investors was significantly higher than a typical year, further intensifying the decline. While there are clear reasons why investors have been deterred from investing in Victoria, the trends present opportunities for investors who are interested in Regional Victoria’s long-term growth record, its relative affordability and the growing shortage of rental properties.
Transcribe →Units Beat Houses
Dec 5, 202400:05:43Tap to summarizeHotspotting was among the first to identify and highlight the most significant change in the Australian real estate scene – the emerging trend which we document in the quarterly editions of the report titled The Rise and Rise of Apartments., published in association with Nuestar. This trend has turned upside down the dominant paradigm in real estate, that houses out-perform apartments on capital growth. There is now growing evidence that attached dwellings are mounting a strong challenge to houses. It has long been believed that land content was the big thing in driving property values and that units lacked this quality. Increasingly, it’s clear that this theory about capital growth needs to be re-considered and to acknowledge that attached dwellings like apartments have qualities that houses don’t have and which are important to growing numbers of buyers. The latest Housing Affordability Report, jointly released by CoreLogic and ANZ, has observed that capital city unit prices increased more over the three months to October 2024, than did house prices over the same period, suggesting a growing preference among home-buyers and investors for units as an affordable option in getting into the market. The growth difference was small, but it’s merely the latest in a growing set of figures showing the rising performance of units. In the month of October, the median price growth for units was higher than for houses in the nation’s five biggest cities and also for the combined regions. This was also the case for the October quarter. In annual terms, price growth has been better for units than houses in the three capital cities leading the nation on market growth – Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth. Units have also out-performed in the regional markets of Queensland, WA, NSW and Victoria. The annual growth in median unit prices, according to CoreLogic, has been 18% in Adelaide, 19% in Brisbane and 24% in Perth. Those are spectacular increases and provide compelling evidence to disprove the notion that attached dwellings don’t perform on capital growth. There are also growing numbers of suburbs around Australia where unit price growth is higher, both in the short-term and the long-term. The Hotspotting Research Hub shows that at Noosa Heads on the Sunshine Coast, the five-year growth average is 10% per year for houses and 17% per year for units. At Surfers Paradise on the Gold Coast, it’s 8% per year for houses and 12% per year for units. There are many other similar examples across the nation. REA Group, which publishes realestate.com.au, has recently highlighted locations where unit price growth is outpacing houses. Megan Lieu, Economic Analyst at REA Group, says: “Historically, house values have risen at a faster rate than units, but with affordability pressures, units are being preferred by many homebuyers.” “In certain suburbs,” she says, “unit prices have grown at more than double the rate of houses over the past year.” Searches for units on realestate.com.au have also been trending upwards since mid 2020. They now make up close to 40% of all buy searches on-site. Lieu says that, while the strong performance of units has been evident nationwide, there are areas where demand for units has been particularly high, resulting in significant price increases compared to houses. In New South Wales, for example, the annual growth in unit values in Engadine, Wagga Wagga and Merimbula has outpaced houses by around 6 percentage points. In Victorian, Safety Beach, Templestowe Lower and Warragul are examples of locations which have experienced stronger growth in their values compared to houses by considerable margins. The largest difference in value growth between units and houses in Queensland was observed in the Brisbane suburbs of Waterford, Nundah and Waterford West. Units in Waterford and Waterford West increased at more than twice the percentage of houses in these suburbs in the past 12 months. PropTrack says that, with housing affordability at its lowest level in three decades, it's to be expected that people are turning to more economical options, especially in suburbs where the gap between house and unit values is significant. But Hotspotting analysis shows that affordability is NOT the only reason that demand for units is rising. More buyers are choosing attached dwellings for location, for lifestyle and also for safety and security at a time of growing concerns about escalating crime levels. For all those reasons, each quarter Hotspotting publishes a national report titled The Rise and Rise of Apartments, in association with the leading real estate marketing company Nuestar. And it proves, emphatically, the units are now a strong option for buyers seeking not only affordability, but strong capital growth as well.
Transcribe →Why a Buyer’s Agent Is a Game-Changer for Property Investors | Featuring Chris Graham
Dec 3, 202400:09:29Tap to summarizeThinking of buying property on your own? 🏡 In this episode of The Property Playbook, host Terry Ryder is joined by Chris Graham, Senior Property Advisor at Australian Hotspot Advocacy, to explore why engaging a buyer’s agent could be the key to securing your next winning investment. What You'll Learn: What a buyer’s agent does and how they work exclusively for the buyer’s interests. The value of off-market properties and how buyer’s agents can provide access. Why having a professional on your team ensures due diligence and avoids costly mistakes. How to identify a trustworthy buyer’s agent with the right credentials. The benefits of flat-fee models versus commission-based services. Real-life success stories, including securing properties below market value with built-in equity. Highlights: [00:51] The role of a buyer’s agent and why it’s better than going solo. [02:39] Success story: Securing a $55,000 equity gain on an off-market property. [04:17] How buyer’s agents help clients avoid risky purchases and protect investments. [06:33] The cost structures of buyer’s agents: Flat-fee vs. commission-based models. [08:28] Off-market properties: What they are and why they’re a hidden gem for investors. Whether you’re a first-time buyer or a seasoned investor, this episode will open your eyes to the strategic advantages of working with a buyer’s agent to build wealth through property. If you would like to connect with Chris, you can reach him at chris@australianhotspotadvocacy.com.au
Transcribe →Melbourne Market Myths
Nov 27, 202400:07:35Tap to summarizeMelbourne’s property market remains the great under-achiever of the nation but that may be about to change. A number of key indicators suggest better performance by the Melbourne property market is imminent. One pointer to better times is the latest Property Sentiment survey by API magazine, which recorded a major turnaround in investor attitudes towards the Victorian property market. The survey asked: Which state or territory do you regard as having the best property investment prospects for the next 12 months? Mid-year Melbourne and Victoria attracted only 8.6 per cent of respondents who felt it was the best state for property investment. Three months later in the new survey there was a remarkable turnaround, with 25 per cent identifying Victoria as having the best property investment prospects for the next 12 months. This ranked Victoria No.2 - above New South Wales and Western Australia, and close behind Queensland in the investment popularity stakes. One of the attractions of Melbourne is its relative affordability, thanks for the absence of price growth in the past two years. The latest Home Price Index from PropTrack shows that Melbourne is currently cheaper than Canberra and Brisbane, as well as being well behind Sydney. Melbourne’s median dwelling price is on a par with Adelaide and Perth now. Sydney’s median dwelling price is $1.1 million, compared to $790,000 in Melbourne. There is a growing perception that Melbourne is now affordable and poised for capital growth that would return it to its more familiar spot sitting a little ehind Sydney as the country’s priciest market. Indeed, the latest PropTrack price report notes recent evidence of a turnaround for Melbourne. It says: “Price falls have started to reverse in Melbourne, with buyers out in force for the peak of spring selling season. Prices rose 0.5% in October, the highest monthly growth rate among the capital cities.” Other factors suggesting that Melbourne is due for a period of stronger property market performance include population growth (fuelled by overseas migrants and international students), a solid economy and a significant program of major infrastructure developments. The latest edition of the State of the States report from CommSec ranked Victoria No.4 among the state and territory economies, ahead of NSW, the ACT, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. The report said the greatest strength of the Victoria economy is the level of construction work. The latest population data from the ABS shows Victoria had the second highest growth rate among the states and territories in the year to March 2024, rising 2.7% compared to the national average of 2.3% - and bettered only by Western Australia. In raw numbers, Victoria added more to its population than any other state, ahead of NSW and Queensland. Jacob Caine, President of the REIV, says Victoria has always been an attractive destination for overseas and interstate migration. Caine says: “Melbourne’s reputation as one of the most liveable cities is well deserved. “We have a growing population and growing demand for rental properties with new residents more likely to rent before buying. “The challenge in Victoria is a lack of housing supply, and the need for Government to build a stronger policy platform that will attract new property investors to meet the needs of the market.” One positive policy from the State Government is the recent announcement that the stamp duty concession for off-the-plan properties in Victoria has been extended to investors - and the price cap removed for home buyers, albeit temporarily. This has been largely welcomed by the sector, as offering a much-needed boost to development. New data from off-the-plan property portal, urban.com.au, has shown a “massive spike in interest” for Victorian off-the-plan projects after the concession’s announcement, reporting an immediate 123 per cent increase in direct online enquiries, and a fivefold increase in online traffic volume. Another factor in favour of investors is the reduction is the number of rental properties available, putting upward pressure on residential rents. For the first time since records began in 1999, Victoria’s active rental bonds dropped significantly over the 12 months to June 2024, signalling a significant shift in the state’s rental market. There are now 22,000 fewer rental properties in the market than a year ago. Victoria’s high property taxes and stricter rental property standards have made owning investment properties less attractive. These factors, combined with sustained higher interest rates, have driven many landlords to sell off their properties. Melbourne’s metro areas have experienced the largest declines, with more than 20,000 fewer rental properties, a 3.7% year-on-year decrease. Regional Victoria saw a smaller drop of around 1,000 properties. Every Melbourne LGA saw rents rise in the past year, with some regions experiencing increases of nearly 20%. Overall, rents are (on average) 7.5% higher than a year ago, creating affordability challenges for tenants. Another positive for the state is that Victoria currently leads the nation in first-home buyer activity, accounting for 32% of new loans. Victoria’s population is projected to grow significantly over the next five years, further increasing demand for rental properties. The shrinking rental market, combined with rising construction costs and fewer new developments, could exacerbate housing affordability issues for both renters and buyers. The Australian Financial Review reported earlier this month that “Melbourne’s housing market could outperform Sydney and other capital cities once it emerges from its current downturn, boosted by a marked improvement in affordability after years of weak growth”. Nicola Powell, Domain’s chief of research and economics, says: “In the next cycle, we’re likely to see Melbourne overperform because it has underperformed significantly compared to other capital cities since March 2020.” AMP capital’s chief economist Shane Oliver says he expects Melbourne prices to grow more than Sydney’s in the next upswing. Oliver says: “Melbourne’s been lagging for some time, but this has made the property market relatively cheap compared to Sydney and the other cities. Because of its relative underperformance, it could bounce back a little bit quicker and sharper.” At Hotspotting, our assessment is that many of the key parameters and indicators are lining up to boost the growth prospects for Melbourne and Regional Victoria in 2025. The city and the state generally are overdue for a period of price growth.
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