Kristin Has Doubts

Summary

Podcast Summary: Hyperfixed - Episode "Kristin Has Doubts"

Introduction

In this thought-provoking episode of Hyperfixed, host Alex Goldman delves into a deeply personal and existential dilemma faced by one of his listeners, Kristen. The episode explores Kristen's struggle with the decision of whether to have children in a world that appears increasingly fraught with political instability, climate change, and social upheaval. Through insightful discussions with experts and a candid examination of data versus personal perception, Alex seeks to unravel the complexities behind Kristen's doubts.

Kristen’s Background and Dilemma

Kristen, a 32-year-old living in California, works in education policy, utilizing data analysis to empower teachers in the classroom. Raised in an evangelical Christian family where her parents were ministers, Kristen's faith-centric upbringing was both nurturing and confining. At 17, driven by a passion to make a tangible difference in the world, she envisioned a future as a vocational Christian minister. However, a pivotal mission trip to West Virginia in 2016, amidst the opioid crisis, shattered her previous convictions.

"That trip was a breaking point for Kristen. When she came back from West Virginia, she left her family's ministry, she got divorced, and she started looking to rebuild her life in a way that felt more consistent with the things she really believed in." (05:41)

Now, Kristen grapples with the profound question: Should I have children? This question is not merely about personal desire but is deeply intertwined with her analytical view of a deteriorating world. She meticulously weighs the pros and cons, fearing that bringing a child into such an uncertain future might be irresponsible.

"So what kind of political and social structure am I bringing a kid into." (08:45)

Expert Insights: Data vs. Perception

Alex reaches out to several experts to find evidence-based answers to Kristen's dilemma. The first is Dylan Matthews from Vox, who initially compiled data suggesting global improvements across various metrics. However, post-COVID, Dylan admits that the pandemic exposed vulnerabilities that have dampened his optimism.

"I think I've got a little bit now." (16:27)

Dylan highlights advancements like cheaper solar and wind energy and decreasing child mortality rates but acknowledges setbacks caused by the pandemic, which have increased poverty and mortality rates globally. He emphasizes the importance of sustained action to continue progress.

Next, Alex consults Bastian from Our World in Data, who echoes Dylan's sentiments about global progress while recognizing significant challenges. Bastian stresses the necessity of avoiding complacency and combating despair to maintain the trajectory of improvement.

"We have to chart this course where we hold three ideas again at the same time. The world is awful. The world is much better, but the world can be much better still." (25:05)

Finally, Robert Denuville, a renowned superforecaster, provides a nuanced perspective on democratic backsliding, particularly in the United States. While he remains generally optimistic about democracy's future, he expresses concern over recent political developments and their potential impact on societal stability.

"If Trump got elected, I probably wouldn't have a kid three weeks. I wouldn't decide to have a kid three weeks from now." (29:12)

Personal Reflections and Turning Points

Throughout the episode, Alex intertwines his personal fears and experiences with the data presented by the experts. Despite evidence pointing towards global improvement, personal experiences and recent political events fuel his anxiety about the future. This internal conflict mirrors Kristen’s struggles, making the quest for resolution both poignant and relatable.

Election Impact and Kristen’s Decision

The 2024 U.S. presidential election serves as a critical juncture in Kristen's deliberation. After Donald Trump wins the election, contrary to her initial expectation that this outcome would dissuade her from having children, Kristen experiences a shift in perspective. The victory, coupled with a realization of her own agency in shaping her immediate environment, empowers her to move forward with her decision.

"We have to make the decisions with the world we live in. How do I want to move forward?" (38:54)

Kristen decides to embrace her desire to create a loving and joyful home, irrespective of the external world's turmoil. She recognizes that while she cannot change global events single-handedly, she can cultivate a nurturing environment for her future children.

"Something about Trump winning and him winning with the popular vote, like, it. It was just crystallizing, and it almost let me let go." (38:37)

Conclusion

In "Kristin Has Doubts," Hyperfixed masterfully navigates the intersection of personal decision-making and global uncertainty. Through Kristen's story and expert analyses, the episode underscores the tension between data-driven optimism and the visceral fear of an unpredictable future. Ultimately, Kristen's choice to move forward with having children exemplifies a commitment to personal agency and hope amidst pervasive challenges.

Notable Quotes

• "That trip was a breaking point for Kristen. When she came back from West Virginia, she left her family's ministry, she got divorced, and she started looking to rebuild her life in a way that felt more consistent with the things she really believed in." — Alex Goldman (05:41)

• "So what kind of political and social structure am I bringing a kid into." — Kristen (08:45)

• "I think we've got a little bit now." — Dylan Matthews (16:27)

• "We have to chart this course where we hold three ideas again at the same time. The world is awful. The world is much better, but the world can be much better still." — Bastian, Our World in Data (25:05)

• "If Trump got elected, I probably wouldn't have a kid three weeks. I wouldn't decide to have a kid three weeks from now." — Robert Denuville (29:12)

• "We have to make the decisions with the world we live in. How do I want to move forward?" — Kristen (38:54)

• "Something about Trump winning and him winning with the popular vote, like, it. It was just crystallizing, and it almost let me let go." — Kristen (38:37)

Final Thoughts

Hyperfixed's "Kristin Has Doubts" is a compelling exploration of how personal aspirations collide with global realities. It invites listeners to reflect on their own uncertainties and the factors influencing their life choices in an ever-changing world.

Transcript

[Alex Goldman]

Hey, this is Alex. I'm appearing on the top of the show in what would be an ad slot to tell you about the Radiotopia annual fund drive. And look, I know this is a little weird because for one, I'm already asking you for money. I'm asking you to become a Hyperfixed member at the end of every episode. And two, my show just started and now I've asked you for money two different ways. I'm very sensitive to that. But let me explain why I am doing this. Just getting this show off the ground has taken almost two years, and it has been frustrating and sometimes exhausting. At my lowest point, I was applying for communications and public relations jobs at tech companies. Can you imagine? I am, like, way too unhinged for that. But a huge part of actually getting the show in production was Radiotopia. And being a member of the slate of shows on Radiotopia means a lot to me. It's not like I just say this show's a proud member of Radiotopia in the credits because they tell me to. I mean, they do tell me to. But it's also true. I am on a network with Ear Hustle, Song Exploder, the Memory palace, the Kitchen Sisters shows that I have always looked up to. His inspiration. And even though I remain independent and the owner of Hyper Fixed, Radiotopia helps.

Me with things that I absolutely couldn't.

Do on my own. Ad sales, marketing, tech stuff.

The other day, Radiotopia executive producer Audrey Martavich helped me find an engineer to mix the first couple of episodes of Hyperfixed. It's not even really her job. She was just being cool.

What I'm trying to say is that this show would not function without Radiotopia. And they are able to function, in large part because listeners, like you, support them during their annual fundraiser. And that money gets shared directly with all the shows in the network. We have a goal right now of reaching 2,024 donors by the end of this year. And we can't get there without you. Every gift makes a difference and is a vote of confidence in our independent model, which I truly believe is the only way forward for shows like Hyperfixed.

So please head to Radiotopia fm.

Donate and seriously, thank you so much.

Hi, my name's Alex Goldman. This is Hyperfixed on the show. Listeners write in with their problems, big and small, and I solve them. Or at least I try. And if I don't, I at least give a good reason why I can't.

[Kristen]

So far, this show has been the small claims court of Problems driving in New York City, grocery store refrigerators, diarrhea buttons. I mean, sure, the stories were sometimes undergirded by complicated science and historical deep.

[Alex Goldman]

Dives, but the problems themselves are relatively personal and small problems that, whether I fixed them or not, had definitive answers. But today's question's bigger. It's way harder to answer and it.

[Kristen]

Will have inexorably life altering consequences for its asker.

[Alex Goldman]

This week, Kristen has doubts.

[Kristen]

I had had doubts. And questions brewing. I've always been kind of a questioner, a searcher, you know, this is Kristen.

[Alex Goldman]

She's 32 years old, she lives in California and she works in education policy, using data analysis to help teachers get ready to teach in the classroom. But the life she leads now, this life of data and questions is a far cry from the faith centric life she was born into.

[Kristen]

So my parents were ministers for a like Christian ministry, like evangelical. But also it's a weird one. That's one of the reasons I've spent the last seven years unpacking it.

[Alex Goldman]

This Christian tradition that Kristen grew up with, it didn't have the purity culture that's so prevalent amongst evangelicals and women were allowed to be leaders, but it was still grounded in this idea of Bible based faith.

[Kristen]

But when I was 17, I was more committed to like trying to find the best way to help the world.

[Alex Goldman]

For a long time, Kristen thought the best way to do that was to become a vocational Christian minister. She moved around the country with her family and really admired the way her parents were able to connect with people wherever they went. So at 21, she got married and she started doing her own work, sharing her specific flavor of theology with the people she met out in the world. But then in 2016, Kristen participated in a domestic mission trip to West Virginia in one of the places hardest hit by the opioid crisis. And everything changed.

[Kristen]

There could be mission trips maybe that are based on like evidence based community service and intervention. And this was not that. This was, you know, trying to invite people to our Bible studies and our Bible classes and teach them the theology of that group. And so I was like 24 when I arrived there. And it was sort of the breaking point of realizing like, do I think that teaching people Bible classes is the way to make the world a better place or do I not? And there's no place that you have to confront that more directly than when you're looking at people who have suffered from substance use disorder, whose lives are falling apart and you are learning more about, you know, the Sackler Family and what caused all of this. And essentially it just came to the point where I realized, like, inviting people to Bible classes is not how I think the world has changed for the better.

[Alex Goldman]

That trip was a breaking point for Kristen. When she came back from West Virginia, she left her family's ministry, she got divorced, and she started looking to rebuild her life in a way that felt more consistent with the things she really believed in. So Kristen went back to school, she got a master's degree, she got remarried, and she's now living a life that feels happy and meaningful to her. And the reason I'm telling you all of this is because I need you to understand the person behind today's problem. Kristen has never been satisfied with the world as it's been described to her. She doesn't take action without weighing the options. And she'd rather burn her life to the ground than live in a way that is out of alignment with her values. So when Kristen reached out to us and said that the decision whether or not to have a child plagues her every single day, we were like, say more about that.

[Kristen]

It sounds like you are very analytical and very thoughtful, and you go really deep on things that you are not sure about.

Yeah, I would say that's definitely true. Yeah.

So I. I assume you've had a lot of thoughts about having kids.

[Alex Goldman]

Like, what?

[Kristen]

You probably have pro con lists sitting around somewhere.

[Alex Goldman]

Yeah.

[Kristen]

What are they?

So for me, the pros. I've always loved kids. I love the idea of getting to explore the world as a child again through your child and getting to see them learn about science and animals and travel. I have a niece and two nephews right now, and they're like my life. I love being an aunt. I. I did the Big Brothers Big Sisters program for five years, and I'm still very tight with my little. I love kids. I love. I don't know, I love, like, being able to give them a safe environment and explore who they are. That's the pro. Right.

Got it. And what are the cons?

There are just so many.

[Alex Goldman]

Remember, Kristen's whole thing is about looking at the world and trying to figure out what she could do to make it better. But when we first spoke to her In July of 2024, the presidential election was four months away. And she had this creeping sense that things were on the verge of being broken beyond repair.

[Kristen]

I'm someone who pays attention to the patterns of the world and, like, where our democracy is headed, where climate is headed. Like, these things impact me deeply, and I'm Someone who can kind of read the signals, maybe a little earlier than it makes it to the mainstream about how bad things could get, how quickly.

[Alex Goldman]

So that's tough for Kristen. Being keenly aware of the social and political environment is percolating this anxiety that she can't ignore. On top of that, this interview was conducted two days after the assassination attempt on Donald Trump this summer, which just felt like another unsettling escalation.

[Kristen]

It feels like the seismographer is sensing, you know, some of the changes that are coming. So what kind of political and social structure am I? Bringing a kid into.

[Alex Goldman]

Politics plays a huge role in the way that Kristen's thinking about this question, but it's far from the only factor that she's weighing. When Kristen looks at the world, it.

Seems like everything is trending in the wrong direction.

Climate change is creating an inhospitable environment for future generations. A national abortion ban threatens the well being of women, and social media is making young people more depressed than ever.

[Kristen]

It's just such a risk. I'm like a very analytical risk person and it's the biggest risk ever, in my view.

[Alex Goldman]

It sounded like the thing Kristen wanted was a crystal ball that would let her see into the future and know that it was going to be a safe place to raise children. And obviously I could not give that to her. I mean, not on this show's budget. So I had to tell her, first.

[Kristen]

Of all, this is a question that has no answer. I'm going to go to experts, they are going to give me opinions and I'm going to come back and say like, hey, based on their information, this is either a fine time to have kids, it's the same as every other time, or it's like way worse. But what would make this feel solved for you?

[Alex Goldman]

What is the closest to solved?

[Kristen]

I could make this for you.

If you talk to someone who's not a wacko alarmist but who is a clear eyed realist. If I could know that, like for instance, how bad climate change will be not in 150 years, but in 30 years, right. If you could tell me that things are likely going to get really bad, that the demise of our democracy is not only possible, but likely, that we are likely to experience war or famine here in the United States, those things would help me be like, okay, I'm actually more comfortable not having a child and instead filling those needs, like that desire for connection and service and nurturing in other ways that would feel solved to me. Like I could be convinced that the risk is too Great for me because I don't feel this internal need to have children. I could be convinced that the risk is too great and I could better serve in other ways.

[Alex Goldman]

While I understand this is ultimately a problem that Kristen is going to have to solve herself, it seems to me like she just feels like she doesn't have enough data. Like, if she could just have some certitude that the future wasn't going to descend into chaos, she'd feel comfortable enough to move ahead with having a kid. And look, I did say that the Hyperfix team would attempt to solve your problems, no matter how big or small they were. So, honestly, I'm kind of on the.

[Kristen]

Hook for this one. Wow, this is a tough one, man.

[Alex Goldman]

I should have never taken this.

[Kristen]

I should have never started this podcast. This was a mistake.

No hard feelings if you're like, this is not touchable. And of course, there's no easy, like, take this buzzfeed quiz and find out if you should have kids or not.

Maybe that's what I need to do. Maybe I need to take the information that I get from this and make it a Take this quiz and it.

[Alex Goldman]

Will tell you if you should have children.

[Kristen]

That seems like that's just gonna get me in trouble.

There would be a way to. You could do it without doing it. You could say, like, what are your biggest fears and concerns? And here are some things to look at. But that's less fun than, like, what Disney character are you?

Yeah, seriously.

[Alex Goldman]

Kristen wasn't interested in emotional reassurance. She wanted something quantifiable, something she could point to that would settle this issue and convince her that it's an okay time to bring children into the world. Or not. And as I started working on this story, I realized I wanted that, too. Because even though I'm already a parent, I'm not 100% certain that having my kids was the right decision. And it's not because I don't love them. They are the best part of my life, without question. But I am very afraid of the world they have to grow up in, and I have been for a long time. I'm the kind of guy who's been writing letters to climate scientists for the last 20 years expressing my helplessness about the rapid increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. I have been convinced for the better part of my adult life that if war doesn't swiftly end, the world apathy.

Will slowly poison it.

There was always something about having kids that felt inherently selfish. So in 2013, when my wife started talking about Wanting to have children. It sparked a lot of soul searching and some very difficult conversations and some couples therapy. For the sake of our relationship. I made a choice to believe that things probably weren't going to be as bad as I imagined they were, that my pessimism was just pessimism and not necessarily more than reality. But when I look back over the last decade, I see a world much worse off than it was before my kids were born. I feel like that pessimism I had turned out to be prescient, and I was desperate to find someone who could convince me otherwise.

[Kristen]

The premise of the show is that we're solving problems for people. And we had a listener contact us and say, should I have kids? And I was like, I don't know the answer to that, but I guess that's why I'm here. So we've been trying to figure out what the right answer is, and, well, we stumbled upon your article, and it seemed like a good place, a good stop on our. On our journey.

[Dylan Matthews]

Sure. Do you mind telling me which article?

[Alex Goldman]

This is Dylan Matthews. He's a writer at Vox, and one of his primary research interests is this question of whether the world is getting better or worse. And if I sound like I'm already somewhat disengaged in the back and forth you just heard, it's because in 2018, Dylan wrote an article indicating that the world was getting much, much better.

[Kristen]

And to me, that just seemed preposterous. Oh, oh, oh. It's the. It's your 2018 article that's, like, 23 charts and maps that show the world is getting much better.

[Dylan Matthews]

Okay, okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Alex Goldman]

Okay, cool. In Dylan's 2018 article, he compiles all this data from all these different sources. And when you look at the charts and maps he's built from them, they do show progress nearly all the way across the board. Since 1990, child mortality and super extreme poverty have fallen by a ton. Solar and wind energy have gotten cheaper. Literacy is on the rise, homicides on the decline, and thanks to medication becoming generally more accessible, people have generally become healthier. But all of these stats were measured from a global perspective, and all the charts were made before COVID So I had to ask Dylan, how are you feeling about the world now?

[Dylan Matthews]

It's funny you asked that. I think, like, 2021, 2022, someone asked me to update it, and there were a lot of charts that you just, like, couldn't include because things had strictly gotten worse since the pandemic. And so I think I've Gotten less hopeful in that I think we had this huge event that showed to me that, like, things really can get seriously worse for a number of years because just like, something hits you like a meteor and throws everything out of whack. And like, poverty went up because of COVID and mortality obviously went up because of COVID And like, all these things we've been making progress on, just like, gains got wiped out because of this one virus. And so I think that doom pilled me a little bit now.

[Alex Goldman]

This is exactly what I expected to hear. The world is getting worse and my perfect, adorable children are going to have to bear the brunt of it.

[Kristen]

And then Dylan said something I was.

[Alex Goldman]

Not expecting to hear.

[Dylan Matthews]

That being said, this is gonna be weird to say, but, like, I've become incredibly hopeful about climate, which is not like.

[Alex Goldman]

Are you fucking kidding me?

[Kristen]

What, dude? Okay, hold on. Before we go any further, here's what I know, here's what I know. We are, like, on track for 1.5 degrees of warming at least as far as I know. Carbon emissions continue to rise. And every four years, we're faced with, at least in the United States, which is a major polluter, we're faced with, like, one party that wants to deregulate everything and then another party that kind of wants to deregulate some things. And it's like every time they make a climate commitment, and I understand that the Biden administration made a big climate commitment, sure. I'm very proud of them.

[Dylan Matthews]

They also, like, you sound very.

[Alex Goldman]

Brad.

[Kristen]

You know, it's like the Green New Deal gets, like, mega shot down. They're opening up new offshore drilling. Like, there's all these things that to me say, like, we're still very committed to, like, oil and gas and shit seems to be getting worse. So now that my rant is over and I apologize, I apologize.

[Dylan Matthews]

Almost none of which I disagree with, for the record.

[Alex Goldman]

Okay, great.

[Kristen]

Okay, so tell me.

[Alex Goldman]

Tell me why you feel hopeful.

[Kristen]

Because if you can turn me around on this, you'll change my life.

[Dylan Matthews]

So I think in life, almost everything becomes a question of baseline. So if you. If your perspective on climate is. Is this bad compared to if we had not fucked up the climate, then yeah, it's really bad compared to if we had not fucked up the climate. It's very hard to thread the needle on this because, like, a lot of people are going to die because of climate change. And there's no way to sugarcoat that and make it not horrible. Where I feel a need to push back is when people Talk about the world being worse than it was when we were growing up or becoming uninhabitable.

[Alex Goldman]

Dylan explained that the reason he's feeling so much more optimistic about the climate has a lot to do with the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC does a ton of work forecasting what climate change will look like. And a few years ago they said we were on track for a climate worst case scenario. We're talking mass extinctions, permafrost melting, catastrophic feedback loops that destroy the entire world. Bad. But recently the IPCC revised their view.

[Kristen]

Of our climate future from the worst case scenario to what's called the intermediate.

[Alex Goldman]

Scenario, which is still bad, but markedly less bad. Based on the very limited action we've taken to address climate change since 2019, forecasts of the future are already like 70 to 80% better than they were before.

[Dylan Matthews]

I think also just the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. And again, like, I don't disagree, it's not enough. I also just had very, very low expectations for the US Congress. I didn't think they were going to do jack shit. And they instead passed this like trillion dollar bill that keeps like adding in costs every time they re estimate it because people keep wanting to use the subsidies and buy more EVs and build more solar plants.

[Alex Goldman]

Dylan points out that batteries and solar energy are already cheaper than coal. And he says we'll soon get to a point where they're cheaper than natural gas too.

[Dylan Matthews]

And at that point you don't have to rely on the benevolence of the folks in charge who are not benevolent. You just have to rely on their greed. So anyway, this is, it's a nuanced situation and I don't want people to hear this and be like, Dylan doesn't give a shit about climate change and he thinks it's all fine. It's not fine. It is less not fine than it was even like five years ago.

[Alex Goldman]

I do have to admit I was moved by this a little bit. But climate change was only one of like a litany of concerns that Kristin and I were carrying around on our backs. And I wanted to ask Dylan to account for the other stuff that was scaring me about the future and tell me why I felt so bad about the world if all the data continued pointing toward progress.

[Dylan Matthews]

I found the hard way over the years of like, trying to make this point that saying things used to be much, much worse doesn't really comfort people about their current situation. I think just like psychologically there's some block there, and that's like a very natural and human thing. But where I get off the train is I think all of that progress that did happen in the past happened because people refused to be fatalistic. I think it's important to instill, especially like young people, a sense that, like, all is not lost and that, like, you can do things that can. Will not make the world perfect, but can stave off disaster.

[Alex Goldman]

Dylan sees all the things I'm seeing. He's not naive. He's looking at the world with clear eyes, and he understands that things feel bad. But that view of reality, it just wasn't reflected in the data, at least not right now. Even so, I needed to know if that trend line was going to continue to inch in the direction of progress and justice, so I could go back to Kristen and tell her, yes, your kids have a shot at the good life or no, America's probably going to turn into the Thunderdome. And it turns out there's this organization called Our World and Data, whose goal is to collate information on trends related to the world's biggest problems. Basically, all the things Kristen's concerned about, stuff like climate change, technology, democracy. So he reached out to one of the main researchers there to see how he felt about the world that Kristen's kids could inherit.

[Bastian]

Yeah, I'm. I'm a researcher at Our World in Data, and. And what I do for a living is trying to find data on the world's biggest problems and trying to explain it as in as easy ways as possible and then communicate it to the broader public.

[Alex Goldman]

So I posed Kristen's question to Bastian, and he told me that when his team looks at the numbers, what they see is a mountain of progress. Same as Dylan. And like Dylan, Bastian was not trying to convince me that sea levels aren't rising, that fascism isn't creeping, or that things aren't generally pretty bad. In fact, he admitted, in a lot of ways, and for a lot of people, things are awful. But he continued ringing this bell that based on the data, people being born now have a better shot at a good life than they've ever had before. And I continued to feel deeply dissatisfied with that answer.

[Kristen]

It's so funny.

[Alex Goldman]

I feel like I spend so much.

[Kristen]

Time thinking about how bad the world is, and then everyone I've talked to who's actually in the hard data is.

[Alex Goldman]

Like, things are getting pretty good. Things are. Things aren't bad.

[Kristen]

I mean, I also have to then hasten to add, I read an article, a BBC article, yesterday, that said, in.

[Alex Goldman]

The last 50 years we've lost 70%.

[Kristen]

Of the biomass in the world or something. So that seems like a pretty big catastrophe, right?

[Bastian]

Yeah, yeah, right. And we're also writing with that. Right. We just also published a few days ago. Right. Based on this new data. My colleagues are also reporting on that. Right. So we don't want to make light of the many challenges that the world facing. They're certainly there, right. And we have to take them very seriously. But I think there are two enemies. There's the enemy of complacency by saying, oh yeah, just things are just getting better. Right? Look at how much better we have it now than 50 years ago or 200 years ago. It's just going to continue like that. And that, of course, is far from guaranteed. It's just not guaranteed. Right. We achieved this progress by a lot of people seeking progress, working towards progress, developing new vaccines, protesting in the streets, pushing for political reform. And so this is how it will also have to continue moving forward. At the same time, there is this doom scrolling, right? There's a risk of. Of despair, right? People just despair. They feel like everything is getting worse, we're moving in the wrong direction across all possible indicators, and they don't think progress is possible at all anymore, or it never was. And that is also not true based on the data that I'm looking at. And so I think we have to chart this course where we hold three ideas again at the same time. The world is awful. The world is much better, but the world can be much better still. And that will hinge upon us taking sustained action towards progress.

[Alex Goldman]

I need to pause for a minute and admit something. This thing that Bastian was saying to me about how the path to a better world hinges on sustained action toward progress. It's important, but I didn't fully appreciate it when I was in the interview. At the time, I wasn't really even able to hear it. I interviewed Bastien on October 16th. The Internet at this point was wall to wall news about the election, which was three weeks away and the polls were predicting a very close race. And between the threats of mass deportations and the promise of dismantling the Department of Education and the stories I kept hearing about women bleeding to death in parking lots simply because their doctors were afraid of the legal repercussions of treating their miscarriages, all I could think about was that despite all the data, I could not go back to Kristen and tell her things were going great, or even that things were going okay. So in that moment, instead of engaging with the substance of what Bastien was saying, I made a stupid joke.

[Kristen]

Maybe I should just stop moping so much. It sounds like everything's pretty okay.

[Bastian]

I mean, I, I think on, on the margins, I probably think you should be moping less. I mean, I don't know how much you mope, right?

[Kristen]

A lot. Trust me, it's a lot. I mope a lot.

[Bastian]

Then, then I think, yeah, I think on average, mope less. If, if you think that puts you in a position to actually take more, more action towards making progress instead of running the risk of despairing. The understandable, very understandable risk of despairing.

[Alex Goldman]

All the experts were telling me that in their expert opinions, things were getting better. And yet I felt absolutely certain that couldn't be true. Or maybe it was just too simplistic. Or maybe because of the new accelerated rate of change in the world, their algorithm based models were failing to capture just how uncertain the future of America had become. So without fully appreciating what was happening, I went looking for a model that would match my view of the world.

[Kristen]

World.

[Alex Goldman]

That's after the break.

[Janee Desmond Harris]

Is there something you need advice on lately? Or maybe you're just a tiny bit curious about the drama other people have? Hi, I'm Janee Desmond Harris, AKA Dear Prudence, and every Friday I answer your burning questions about relationships, sex, work, and how to react to tacky gifts from your ex husband's girlfriend. Join me and guests like Roxane Gay and Cheryl Strayed on Dear Prudence Slate's Advice podcast and get sound advice on the situations that can make us feel crazy. Follow now and catch the latest episode wherever you're listening now.

[Alex Goldman]

Welcome back to the show. So by mid October, I was starting to get frustrated. Every expert I'd spoken to was telling me the same thing, that across the board, things are getting better. Which felt totally out of sync with the world I was living in. There had been a second assassination attempt on Donald Trump, and on top of that, he was promising that if he won, he would open up new drilling for fossil fuels and he would start targeting trans people and immigrants and journalists. Things felt bad. So when I finally met a forecaster who confirmed for me, yes, there are troubling trends in the global landscape, it felt like being seen for the first time during the making of this story.

[Robert Denuville]

You may know, there's been what they call democratic backsliding. There's been a rise of autocracy around the world and some democracies not doing as well.

[Alex Goldman]

This is Robert Denuville, and he's a super forecaster, which is a real title that can only be earned in a competition by the intelligence arm of the government to determine how, how well people can predict the future. Using data. Robert has successfully predicted things as consequential as Russia's invasion of Ukraine and as trivial as Pantone's color of the Year. And the one thing that he said worries him about the future is this issue of democratic backsliding where formerly democratic countries elect autocratic governments.

[Robert Denuville]

So some people are concerned about this. I don't think it's some kind of long term secular trend that I would expect to continue. I think probably the world will continue to get a little bit more democratic. But there has been trend, and I'm particularly concerned about the United States. And I'll be honest with you, I probably, if this is a partisan thing, people may want to reject it because it sounds partisan. But if Trump got elected, I probably wouldn't have a kid three weeks. I wouldn't decide to have a kid three weeks from now. And I don't know what's going to happen in the US But I'm concerned about it, I'm anxious about it, and I don't think that's crazy. And hopefully it won't be like Europe in 1938. But there were people that got bad feelings in 1938, and they were right. So I don't think that kind of decision making is crazy.

[Alex Goldman]

As scary as it sounds, it felt very validating to finally hear someone say this. And to be clear, Robert hastened to add that he still feels generally optimistic about democracy. And like every other expert I spoke to, he believes that the world is generally trending toward progress, even though it.

[Kristen]

Doesn'T always feel that way.

[Alex Goldman]

And there was something else he said that really resonated with me. Before we got off the phone, I asked Robert, in light of the comments he made about Trump and his fears about democratic backsliding, does he think it's any more or less ethical to have kids now than it was 40 years ago when I was born? And at first he sighed and said something I'd heard before, about how we don't remember the past being as stressful as it is today? And he talked about the fact that when he was growing up, the threat of nuclear war felt tangible and imminent, and that apart from this one weird period in the 90s when everyone in the US felt pretty good about things, there's always been some kind of turmoil. And then it hit me.

[Kristen]

I came of age during that era of good feeling after the first Iraq war, before the second, before 9, 11, it really did feel like peace is possible in our lifetime. Like, I really did like world peace. Like, I really felt that. But also at the same time that was happening, there were, like, incredible atrocities going on in, like, Sudan. There are incredible atrocities going on in, like, Chechnya, in places that just. I didn't have the. I was not aware of. Like, I was too young and too dumb and too sort of concerned with only my little corner of the world. So I didn't think about those things. But I do remember that period. And it's really hard for my experience of the world not to be colored by this idea that, like, oh, there was a period of time where there was like, this real feeling that peace in the world was possible.

[Robert Denuville]

Yeah, I think it was possible at that time to imagine that those were just pockets that we were going to, you know, we were going to peace was going to spread to those bad areas. I think that was wrong. I think the idea that we were at the end of history was always kind of silly. But I also think that if we were too high then we might be too low now that, that things feel better and worse, but the overall trajectory is up. And things might be worse for a while, you know, locally and temporarily, but I think the overall trajectory is probably up. It's a hard perspective to hold onto, though.

[Alex Goldman]

For better or worse, my view of the world was shaped by those Elysian days of the mid to late 90s. And getting an acknowledgement out of the blue that they were incredibly anomalous and have not been repeated in history didn't exactly resolve my fears about the future. But it at least made me able to see that they've definitely been skewing my baseline understanding of the world.

[Kristen]

So if she has kids and decides she makes she made a mistake, can I blame it on you and have.

[Alex Goldman]

Her give you a call if she.

[Kristen]

Needs to complain about it to somebody?

[Robert Denuville]

None of this is family planning advice. Please don't construe it. Or investment advice or anything.

[Alex Goldman]

The first time I'd spoken to Kristen was in July of this year. By the beginning of November, I had spoken to several different experts, down to earth realists, who are all telling me the same thing, that all things being equal, there's never really been a better time in history to have kids. I was starting to understand how my coming of age in this era of national optimism may have warped my expectations for the future. And even just becoming aware of that was Making me feel a little better about things. But I was still struggling with what to say to Kristen. So I spent some time combing back through all these conversations I'd had about the future. And in those conversations, I started hearing things I hadn't been able to hear in the moment. In addition to telling me about this data that they'd been collecting and studying, this data that showed genuine progress across the board, all of these experts tried to stress to me that progress does not occur in a vacuum. They told me that for as long as there have been people trying to imagine the future of the world, there have also been people who thought its end was just around the corner. Those people felt in their bones that things were bad in a way that they've never been bad before, bad in ways that we, as a civilization were simply not equipped to handle. And those people have always, always been wrong. But the fact that they were wrong isn't really the important part of the story. What's important is understanding why humanity has faced disasters and diseases. We faced fascism. We faced countless moments that felt like the end. And every single time, the thing that diverted us from the path of destruction, that kept us on the path of progress was people who refused to be fatalistic, people who believed that we didn't have to accept the forecast, who believed that a better world was possible and decided to fight for it. So while I can't ultimately tell Kristen whether or not to have kids, what I can say is that when I imagine the ideal parent, it's someone who doesn't accept the world as it's explained to them, someone who believes that a better world's possible. It's someone like Kristen. And I wanted her to know that. But then, on November 5, Donald Trump won the presidential election. And I just assumed that was that.

No matter what I said, the door.

Was closed on Kristen ever having kids. But I still wanted to know how she felt, and I still needed an end for the episode. So I called her to talk about it. Hi, Kristen.

[Kristen]

Hey, how's it going?

[Alex Goldman]

And when I reconnected with her one week after the election, I was surprised by what I heard.

[Kristen]

So, before the election happened, there was this narrative in my mind that because I felt on the fence about this decision, I had this idea that if Kamala wins, that will be a sign that our country is moving in a good direction and things will be stable, at least for a while, and that'll be more of a green light to yes. And if our country elects Donald Trump again, after everything we've seen that will be more of a closed door and a reason to say no.

And that was, like, late.

Late Tuesday night here on the Pacific Coast. I could see that Trump had basically definitely won. So as I was going to bed, that's sort of where I was at. It's like, okay, well, this is what I said. If he wins, this is kind of a no for me. But in the days following, I think for me, the fact that he won the popular vote is actually slightly helpful in a sense of like, okay, this wasn't a fluke. We can't blame the Electoral College. Like, the majority of voters chose Trump, so this is the reality that we're living in. And also realizing very clearly that, like, how I handled things last time is probably not going to work again. I think a lot of us were kind of stumbling through how to live in a reality like that and how to. For me, I'll just speak from my side like, I was a little infant in how to take up the cause of justice and how to show up in micro activism or. Or making my voice heard. I was really green in figuring that out last time. And so that has almost made me rebellious and feel like I actually want my own house to be full of joy and wonder and curiosity and fun and love. And if kids are gonna help me.

Do that, wow, this is not what I expected.

I'm not saying I'm for sure, yes.

But I'm not sure that I want to give up that power to make my own house as happy as it can be and to live in a way where I'm dictated by what's going on on Twitter or in Washington, D.C.

[Alex Goldman]

For Kristen, it turns out that her opinion of the world, her pessimism, wasn't particularly affected by all the statistical data I've thrown at her. What has moved the needle for her was being forced to confront a world that feels terrifying and unsafe and. And immovable, and deciding not to let it dissuade her from building the future that she wants.

[Kristen]

Something about Trump winning and him winning with the popular vote, like, it. It was just crystallizing, and it almost let me let go. I was. I was so white knuckled about how I thought the future should look to make this decision, and now that's blown up.

Fuck it.

We have to make the decisions with the world we live in. How do I want to move forward?

[Alex Goldman]

Rather than caving to despair, Kristen has already decided to fight, to fight for the future that she wants, for her own happiness and for the better world. She's been dreaming about since she was 17 years old.

[Kristen]

So the real important question is, even though it sounds like you have come to this completely on your own, can I take credit for you having made this decision?

Emma can take credit.

No.

[Alex Goldman]

Hyperfixed was produced by Emma Cortland and Amore Yates. It was also edited by Emma Cortland and Amor Yates. It is hosted by me, Alex Goldman. The music is by the mysterious Breakmaster Cylinder and also by me. It was engineered by Tony Williams. Fact checking by Sona Avakian. You can get bonus episodes Join our Discord and much, much [e-mail] join most recently we're doing a competition with premium members to remix the Hyperfixed theme song, the song you're listening to right now. The winner gets a free year of premium Hyperfix for themselves or to gift to someone else. I am very excited to hear how those turn out. Also, this show can't exist without your problems to solve, so please head on over to hyperfixpod.com and submit your problems. Hyperfixed is a proud member of Radiotopia from prx, a network of independent, creator owned listener supported podcasts. Discover audio with Vision at Radiotopia fm. Also, if you heard the button story from a couple weeks ago, there are still buttons available and you can pick one up@hypertfix pod.com button thanks so much for listening. The theme song's ending. I'm wondering if I'm gonna get all this in before it ends.

[Kristen]

Radiotopia from PRX.